The current prime age (25-54 years old) unemployment level hovers around multi-decade lows of 3% – essentially full employment – while the prime age labor force participation rate is far from its peak – implying less than full employment. Since the female workforce rose to maximum participation rates in the…
Trump’s claim of bringing back American manufacturing jobs is boastful with some truth. Since the manufacturing halcyon days of the 1970’s, the US Dollar was allowed to depreciate and cheap labor abroad sent US factory jobs into a multi-decade tailspin. Manufacturing output rose, but 8 Million jobs were lost. In his first…
Milton Friedman promulgated the Phillips Curve interpretation that posits a tight labor market generates higher inflation. Since 1967 this has been the primary tool of Central Banks and economists in forecasting inflation. During the previous generation it appeared that falling unemployment during an economic recovery would always trigger a strong…
Recently concern has risen over a pending low in unemployment data among other signs of a major stock market and economic top. While a bit presumptuous to assume unemployment can’t go much lower, it’s a given that when the economy peaks and heads toward a recession, unemployment will have bottomed and…
Apple became the first company to surpass the $1 Trillion market cap today, but they have no place in Trump’s mantra of “Making America Great Again”. Even Apple’s sales appear almost immune to tariffs from China or the US. In promising to bring back US Manufacturing jobs, our President’s messaging heaps an inordinate…
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