Currencies Reaching Extremes on COT Hedger Data

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06-27-24

Hedger data indicates that these markets are overbought:  September New Zealand $. Seasonal rally due in July that may provide Sell side entry. Downside risk until mid Aug’ or late Sept’. : Sept’ Swiss Franc remains oversold. Any decline into July 5th may provide entry point to go long <112. : Sept’ British Pound approaching possible peak by 2nd half of July for a Sell in the 128 – 130 zone. : Sept’ Canadian $ also near extreme oversold. Potential Buy entry between July 5th to 19th timeframe if there is a further decline toward 7200 – 7250. :  Sept’ Coffee remains overbought. Possible Sell entries on rallies into late July or late August in the 230’s – 240’s. :  December Cotton is oversold. Possible Buy entry if retest of 70 – 72 zone in July. : Dec’ Soybean Oil nearing oversold extreme with possible Buy entry in July 5th to 12th period near 43 or lower

06-14-24

Comittment of Traders (COT) Report, RSI and Seasonals are setting up possible trades: Watchlist

potential Swiss Franc Buy  Jul 5 or late Sept seasonal lows, currently overbought

potential Canadian$ Buy 7240-7270s with seasonal Low near Jun 18th; July 5th & 16th 

potential  Soybean Buy in June-August during seasonal windows near June 27, Jul 5th, Aug 7th. Momentum oversold now.

potential Soybean Oil Buy with seasonal Low near June 26 & July 5th; Momentum oversold now

potential Cotton Buy late June – mid July with seasonal Low; Momentum oversold here

potential Coffee Sell looking for top Jun 6 & 28th, Jul 26, Aug 30

        

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Open Trades 2024:

DateCommodityBuy/SellEntryExit targetStop

Closed Trades 2024:

Entry DateCommodity SignalEntryExit DateExitP/L contract=$5,091P/L per $10k=$17,982
05-24-24Buy Jul Oil77.0405-31-2477.747001062
05-24-24Sell Jul KC Wheat71405-28-241187(1000)(4329)
03-26-24Sell May Beans1207.503-28-24118710253882
03-19-24Sell June Hogs102.703-25-24102.12401454
03-14-24Sell Jun LCattle185.6503-19-24185.3120445
02-05-24Buy Mar BeanOil446102-07-2445354442018
01-16-24Sell Mar Yen690501-19-24680812124239
01-02-24Sell Mar Yen717701-09-24704516505769
01-02-24Buy Mar BeanMeal379.401-05-24375(440)(1739)

Closed Trades 2023:

Commodity
signal
Entry
date
Entry
price
Exit
date
Exit
price
Profit single
contract
$28,137
Profit $10k
margin
$63,401
Oil Dec Sell11-07-2380.6511-14-2379.451,2001,652
10 Year Mar Buy11-01-23107-0011-09-23107-299063,876
Sugar Oct Sell09-22-2327.0409-26-2326.011,1547,805
Coffee Sep Buy07-21-23158.607-24-23163.71,9122,575
Gold Aug Buy07-07-23192007-18-2319553,5003,833
Cocoa Sept Sell07-06-23336907-14-2333402901,843
Silver Sept Buy07-10-23230507-12-2324346,4506,172
Oats Dec Sell07-07-2344007-12-234191,0505,303
Peso Sept Sell07-10-23579007-12-235806(80)(520)
BeanOil Dec Sell07-10-23610507-11-232610500
HeatOil Aug Sell07-10-232578007-11-2325880(420)(516)
BeanOil Dec Sell07-06-23603507-10-236130(570)(1645)
Swiss Sept Buy06-14-23111.8606/30/23111.9050100
Euro Sept Sell05-05-23110.0005/17/23109.0012503788
Cocoa Sept Sell04-14-23288804-18-232946(580)(3687)
5 Year Sept Sell04-06-23111.0504-18-23109.233582327
Dollar June Buy04-14-23100.8504/17/23101.9010503818
NatGas May Buy04-11-23218504/12/232109(760)(1,727)
Coffee May Buy03-31-23168.604/03/23175.626253535
Wheat May Buy03-24-2367504/05/23679200649
Euro June Buy03-08-23106.1003/15/23107.1513124502
SoyMeal May Sell02/22/23154203/02/231499340014,718
Gold April Buy02/06/231876.602/09/231876.600
Crude Oil March Sell01/20/2381.7501/31/2377.903,8505,000

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