Renewed GDP Fears Deflate Energy & Stocks: Ags Bullish

[SS & KDelta Futures Trader Portfolio models below for Trade details of Pending, Open or Closed positions]

10-02-19  Ags hit short term resistance as warned. Good exits in SS system this week.: Dec’ Pound is at risk of breaking down here: SoyOil, Coffee & Cotton setting up for Sells.

10-01-19   Ags continued their 2nd day of a significant price surge, closing in on 1st strong resistance. SoyMeal nearing safe 310 exit.

09-30-19  Long Cocoa, Wheat Soybeans: short precious metals & Oil.. Our RSI model also has a bias to expect a break higher in Treasuries, Euro-Dollars and Soybeans, while having a bias for lower breakdown in NZ$, Aussie, Swiss, SP (stock indices), Copper and Coffee. Deflationary – slow economy – higher US Dollar is exerting pressure on commodities, while hope for a China deal is pushing Ags higher.

Trading Models:

P/(L) per $10,000 uses multiplier so all trades are of equal margin per $10,000 investment)

See our Risk Disclaimer at the bottom. Note that familiarity with Futures Trading is assumed for readers. Order entry dates, the name of the commodity futures contract, the Exit price (or TBD=to be determined) as well as the trailing stops are all identified. All entry price signals and trailing stops displayed are assumed to be Stop orders at that price and all Exit prices are assumed to be Limit orders, unless otherwise noted. Limit Order=buy or sell a security or commodity at a specified price or better: Stop Order= buy or sell  once the price of the commodity reaches a specified price, known as the stop price. When the stop price is reached, a stop order becomes a market order to execute at current price. P=profit & (L)= loss. A P/(L) is shown for both a single quantity futures contract order as well as a theoretical order using $10,000 for the Order of the specified commodity futures contract. The Futures Contract month is abbreviated: Jan=January—Dec=December

 KDelta Futures Trader is a proprietary short term breakout model created in the 1980’s that generates about 7 trades a month. Readers should periodically check this site for updates as not all updates generate email notifications.

Open Positions KDelta Futures Trader

DateSignalContractEntry StopExit (Limit)Trailing stop

Pending Signals KDelta Futures Trader

Stop OrderContractEntry StopExit limitTrailing
Stop
SellDec SoyOil288028422911

2019 KDelta Futures Trader Closed Positions

Entry DateContractEntry PriceExit DatePriceSingle contract
P/(L) 12,316
$10,000 Margin/trade
P/(L) $79,176
10-01-19Dec SoyMeal30410-02-19305.1120826
09-30-19Dec NZ$626810-01-1962205207576
09-30-19Dec KCWheat41409-30-194203001881
09-02-19Sep Can$750009-03-1974991090
09-03-19Dec 10 YrNote132-0609-04-19131-30(250)(1748)
08-30-19Dec KCWheat397-409-03-19388-44502821
08-29-19Sep Euro1106509-03-191095812376080
08-28-19Dec SoyMeal295.408-28-19296(60)(413)
08-26-19Dec Silver175008-27-19179221004656
08-26-19Dec Gold1545.408-26-191537.2(820)(1657)
08-23-19Dec SoyMeal295.808-26-19297.3(150)(895)
08-13-19Nov NatGas221408-22-1922151055
08-05-19Dec Cotton590008-22-19590630103
08-08-19Dec Euro1120008-15-19111249504318
08-13-19Dec Dollar975508-15-1997974202314
08-08-19Dec SoyOil292508-13-1929672524675
08-13-19Sep Yen953408-13-199508(325)(1641)
08-12-19Sep KCWheat409-408-12-19398-45503448
08-06-19Dec SoyOil279608-08-192864(408)(2810)
08-02-19Sep OJ990008-05-1996204203030
08-05-19Sep KCWheat416-608-05-19421-4(237)(1489)
08-05-19Nov Soybeans86508-05-1986500
07-31-19Nov Soybeans88908-01-1986213508451
07-30-19Nov Soybeans890-407-31-19898-4(400)(1827)
07-29-19Dec SoyMeal310.508-01-19303.37204959
07-23-19Sep Coffee104.4007-24-19101.0012753864
07-15-19Oct Sugar122407-17-1911844484270
07-03-19Sep TBond155-3007-05-19156-103121184
07-02-19Sep 10 YrNote128-0607-05-19128-05(31)(219)
07-01-19Sep KCWheat45207-03-19431-410256426
07-03-19Sep 10 YrNote128-0607-03-19128-05.5(16)(135)
07-01-19Dec SoyMeal317.707-02-19309.58205647
06-26-19Nov Soybeans92306-27-19908-67103243
06-25-19Nov Soybeans922-606-26-19922-037171
06-18-19Sep 10 Year127-1606-20-19128-087506494
06-07-19Sep Cocoa246606-17-19246660287
06-12-19Sep Canadian$753306-14-197533(380)(3454)
05-29-19Jun Canadian$740705-20-19740520158
05-17-19Jun Canadian$741305-20-197440(270)(2134)
05-13-19Jun Aussie$697405-16-1969165803906
05-10-19Jul KCWheat389-205-13-19589-200
05-01-19Jul Sugar123405-02-19122956534
05-01-19Jul Silver14.8305-01-1914.649502617
05-01-19Jul Platinum874.605-01-19881(270)(1636)
03-12-19May Coffee964503-13-199600169568
03-05-19May SoyOil295503-12-192983721455
03-07-19Mar Aussie$702103-08-197046250(1818)
03-01-19June 5 Yr Note114-14.503-04-19114-101401727
02-26-19May Corn376-603-01-19366-65006494
02-11-19Mar Euro113.5002-12-19113.40125494
02-08-19Mar Corn376-002-12-19375-237487
02-07-19Mar Euro113.7402-08-19113.7400
02-04-19Mar Nikkei2093002-07-1920680(750)(1339)
02-01-19Mar SoyMeal310.002-01-19312.02001515
02-01-19Mar Soybean921-002-01-19917-0(200)(1039)
01-31-19Mar Cotton745602-01-197394(310)(1064)
01-17-19Mar Cotton738201-18-1973851550
01-09-19Mar Euro1157601-11-1911546(375)(1482)
01-08-19Mar Coffee1040001-08-191042075252

2018 Closed Positions: Futures Trader

DateSignalContractEntry PriceExit DateExit Price Contract P/(L)P/(L) $10,000
margin/contract
Total=$30,880$136,337
12-20-18SellMar Cotton764512-24-18725519506690
12-17-18SellFeb Crude Oil495012-19-18463032006806
12-17-18SellFeb Hogs638512-21-1861405803906
12-11-18BuyMar US$969312-17-189675(180)(992)
11-20-18SellJan WTI Oil549011-20-18529020005122
11-20-18SellDec Nikkei2149011-20-1821410400769
11-08-18SellDec Canadian$759811-16-18759170553
11-09-18SellDec SoyMeal277511-16-182782(42)(764)
11-08-18BuyDec Cotton815711-08-188060(485)(1664)
11-01-18BuyDec Cocoa228011-01-182231(490)(2344)
10-26-18BuyDec Cocoa223110-29-18223100
10-26-18SellDec Copper2717510-26-1827450(687)(2016)
10-24-18SellDec KCWheat504-010-26-18275353122185
10-24-18SellDec Wheat505-010-25-18486-09506909
10-24-18SellDec Copper2725510-25-1827535(700)(2053)
10-23-18BuyDec Gold123710-23-181234(300)(802)
09-24-18BuyNov HeatOil20274009-28-182349531717586
09-21-18BuyNov UnGas2022109-28-182098031887245
09-21-18BuyNov WTI Oil707509-26-1871493702170
09-21-18BuyNov HeatOil2230609-25-182310033357978
09-20-18BuyDec miniSP2917.2509-23-182925387646
09-21-18BuyNov WTI Oil713009-21-187030(500)(1466)
09-21-18BuyNov UnGas2025009-21-1819950(1260)(2864)
09-14-18SellDec BeanOil276709-20-1827501021545
09-19-18BuyNov WTI Oil709009-20-187020(350)(2053)
09-17-18SellDec Corn349-209-20-18347-21001136
09-18-18SellDec Cotton805509-18-18785510003430
09-12-18SellDec BeanOil280009-13-18279530455
09-11-18BuyNov mini Oil705509-13-186890(825)(3947)
09-07-18SellDec Aussie716909-11-1870977005091
08-15-18SellOct Oil650908-17-18650900
08-10-18SellSep Aussie731308-16-1872852802036
08-14-18SellSep Copper2673008-15-182595019506331
08-09-18SellSep NZ$668908-10-18657311609583
08-09-18SellSep Euro1156408-14-181145413755495
08-06-18SellSep Euro1158208-08-1811644(775)(3063)
07-31-18SellOct Sugar107907-31-1810513132995
07-09-18SellAug NatGas285907-17-1827669307045
07-12-18SellSep Swiss1005507-16-181005500
06-22-18BuyAug NatGas294506-28-1829955003788
05-30-18BuyJul Coffee1214506-01-181241310054350
05-22-18BuyJul NatGas290105-29-1829222101590
05-23-18BuyJul Corn408-005-25-18404-4(175)(2210)
05-21-18BuyJul Oil723505-23-187167(680)(2523)
05-22-18BuyJun miniSP274105-22-182728(650)(1094)
05-21-18BuyJun NZ$693505-22-18693500
05-14-18BuyJun NatGas284505-16-182825 (200)(1515)
05-09-18SellJul Cocoa272905-09-182754(250)(1337)
05-04-18BuyJul Cotton858305-07-1886332501136
05-03-18BuyJul Corn406-405-07-18403-2(163)(2052)
04-25-18SellJun NZ$716505-02-187012153010699
04-30-18BuyJun Corn401-205-01-18402-037473
04-27-18BuyJun Jul BeanMeal394.404-30-18394.400
04-25-18SellJun Euro1225504-27-181213914506277
04-25-18BuyJun US$905204-27-18916411206171
03-23-18SellJun Nikkei2051503-24-1820560(250)(480)
03-23-18SellJun Nikkei2050003-23-1820415425816
03-22-18BuyJun 10 Yr Note120-2403-22-18120-17(219)(2038)
03-22-18BuyJun 10 Yr Note120-2303-22-18120-14(281)(2689)
03-21-18SellJun NZ$717003-22-187222(520)(3636)
02-21-18SellMar 30 Yr Bond143-0402-22-18143-0333113
02-14-18SellMar 5 Yr Note114-09.2502-16-18114-0651824
02-12-18BuyMar BeanMeal351.302-13-18370.5192017454
02-01-18BuyMar Cocoa201302-05-1820564303399
01-24-18BuyMar Canadian810601-25-188091(150)(1049)
01-10-18BuyMar Yen897801-15-18906611004444
01-09-18BuyMar 10 Yr Note123-1201-10-18122-314063515
01-03-18BuyMar Nikkei 2252307501-04-182337515003846
12-26-17BuyFeb WTI Oil590001-03-18610910904776
12-28-17BuyMar Swiss1025401-02-181034311123612

 

Trading Model: KDelta SS (Exits are determined in closing & opening minutes)

KDelta SS Open Trades

DateOrderEntryExitStop
09-03-19Buy Dec Cocoa224525862442

KDelta SS Closed Trades 2018

DateOrderEntryExit DatePriceP/(L) per contractProfit per $10,000
YTD = $35,379$197,257
12-04-18Sell NZ$693312-16-18679613708896
11-30-18Buy Feb Gold122612-11-181249.823806364
11-16-18Buy Dec Copper2746011-20-18277908252419
10-23-18Sell Dec BeanOil291711-01-1828344989054
10-24-18Buy Dec 10Yr Note118-0810-31-18118-214063517
10-23-18Sell Dec NatGas300010-30-1832505002331
10-24-18Buy Dec 30Yr Bond138-0510-30-18138-245942347
10-23-18Buy Dec Aussie708510-24-187071(140)(1018)
10-23-18Buy Dec 10yr Note118-1010-23-18118-1393808
09-28-18Buy Dec Coffee991510-15-1811915750030,300
08-31-18Sell Dec Hogs540009-04-185525(500)(3788)
08-10-18Sell Dec BeanOil288408-17-182873661000
07-20-18Buy Dec Wheat513-007-27-18547-41,67511,279
07-19-18Sell Sep 10 Yr Tr120-0207-19-18120-08(188)(1266)
07-19-18Buy Dec Oats239-207-19-18235-6(175)(2358)
07-19-18Buy Sep NZ$678307-19-186750(330)(2727)
07-0218Sell Sep OJ1614007-10-18166858177280
06-06-18Buy Aug Gold1303.606-13-181299.6(400)(1173)
06-04-18Buy Jul Copper309.8506-12-18324.2358711647
05-15-18Buy Jul Sugar115906-04-181250112010697
05-20-18Buy Jul BeanOil311805-25-1831401322000
05-20-18Buy Jul Copper307.4505-23-18307.4500
05-08-18Sell Aug LCattle104.47505-21-18100.1175010606
05-08-18Sell Aug FCattle143.7505-21-18139.819756412
05-16-18Buy Jul Copper307.0005-18-18307.0000
05-04-18Sell Jul Beans103705-14-181017-69624730
04-12-18Sell Jun TBond145-1204-27-18143-0721569116
04-11-18Sell Jun 10YrNote120-2704-26-18119-09156211833
04-11-18Sell Jun 5YrNote114-07804-25-18113-09594715373
04-06-18Buy Jun Hogs732504-18-18 7852.5211015985
04-03-18Buy Jun Canadian$781804-12-18 7958140011570
03-12-18Buy Jun Gold1326.703-16-18 1318.7(800)(2346)
03-12-18Buy Jun 10YrNote120-0603-20-18 120-04(63)(636)
03-07-18Sell Jun Oil607503-20-18 6220(1450)(5731)
02-26-18Buy Jul Silver16.71202-28-1816.5(1060)(2677)
02-26-18Buy Jun Aussie$785102-27-18 7899(520)(3782)
02-15-18Sell Jul OJ148.1503-07-18 141.959308611
02-20-18Sell Jun Swiss1079003-05-18 107289303019
02-13-18Buy Jun minSP2664.503-01-182684.510001683
02-02-18Sell Jun NZ$730002-13-1872703002098
01-30-18Sell Jul Silver17.23502-12-1816.73525006313
01-23-18Sell Jun Hogs84.0002-01-1883.004003030
01-10-18Buy Jun Yen906001-18-1890884201909

Further comments form past updates:

05-06-18    As we have been saying for months, buying any $3+ dollar dip in Oil …is the strategy as Trump continues to fulfill campaign promises working toward a confrontation that drains the Iranian military swamp of petrodollars. …Oil prices are breaking out … towards our $71.7 – $75.25 target zone. 

04-30-18  Oil may be overbought basis hedge funds and held back by the strong $, but we have advised buying all dips since our January newsletter expecting Trump to escalate war rhetoric with Iran into May/June.

Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

This Site is for informational purposes only and should be used at each individuals own discretion.  The reader of this material agrees that they are acting of their own accord and waive the Site and its directors or affiliates of any liability associated with losses or hardships which may result from using information within the Site.

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You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown.

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Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move” or if the price “gaps” from one price to another (with no offsetting orders available between the two prices to get you out of your trade). The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.

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