Oil Still Flirting With $50 AS US$ Holds Strong

[SS & KDelta Futures Trader Portfolio models below for Trade details of Pending, Open or Closed positions]

12-04-18  Strong indications of a pause in Fed rate hikes & improved potential of a China Trade deal have both been negated by a meaningless yield curve inversion in the 3 & 5 Yr Treasuries & panic disbelief in a Trade deal as China remains silent. Soybeans, Copper, Aussie$ & to a lesser degree Oil price action may be a “tell” as to what’s next for the stock market short term. SS model went short New Zealand $ tonight & just missed Sells in Copper & Aussie $.

11-20-18   If there is no China-US Trade deal hope post Xi-Trump meeting (early December), then Oil will fall into the $40’s & equity rallies would be capped. A Trade deal seems unlikely, but perhaps a false hope will arise initially. Fed will hike rates in Dec’, but Fed guidance may hint of a pause which would boost stocks short term.

11-01-18  Soybean Oil trade exits with +90% ROI

10-05-18   Bond yields continue to surge & risk hurting stocks next week.  

09-17-18  …most commodities will remain deeply oversold long term until US Dollar moves lower & Emerging Markets like Brazil (EWZ) move higher.

05-06-18    As we have been saying for months, buying any $3+ dollar dip in Oil …is the strategy as Trump continues to fulfill campaign promises working toward a confrontation that drains the Iranian military swamp of petrodollars. …Oil prices are breaking out … towards our $71.7 – $75.25 target zone. 

04-30-18  Oil may be overbought basis hedge funds and held back by the strong $, but we have advised buying all dips since our January newsletter expecting Trump to escalate war rhetoric with Iran into May/June.

 

New Trading Model: KDelta SS (Exits are determined in closing & opening minutes)

KDelta SS Open Trades

DateOrderEntryExitStop
12-04-18Sell Dec NZ$6933TBD6946

KDelta SS Closed Trades 2018

DateOrderEntryExit DatePriceP/(L) per contractProfit per $10,000
YTD = $31,629$179,465
11-16-18Buy Dec Copper2746011-20-18277908252419
10-23-18Sell Dec BeanOil291711-01-1828344989054
10-24-18Buy Dec 10Yr Note118-0810-31-18118-214063517
10-23-18Sell Dec NatGas300010-30-1832505002331
10-24-18Buy Dec 30Yr Bond138-0510-30-18138-245942347
10-23-18Buy Dec Aussie708510-24-187071(140)(1018)
10-23-18Buy Dec 10yr Note118-1010-23-18118-1393808
09-28-18Buy Dec Coffee991510-15-1811915750030,300
08-31-18Sell Dec Hogs540009-04-185525(500)(3788)
08-10-18Sell Dec BeanOil288408-17-182873661000
07-20-18Buy Dec Wheat513-007-27-18547-41,67511,279
07-19-18Sell Sep 10 Yr Tr120-0207-19-18120-08(188)(1266)
07-19-18Buy Dec Oats239-207-19-18235-6(175)(2358)
07-19-18Buy Sep NZ$678307-19-186750(330)(2727)
07-0218Sell Sep OJ1614007-10-18166858177280
06-06-18Buy Aug Gold1303.606-13-181299.6(400)(1173)
06-04-18Buy Jul Copper309.8506-12-18324.2358711647
05-15-18Buy Jul Sugar115906-04-181250112010697
05-20-18Buy Jul BeanOil311805-25-1831401322000
05-20-18Buy Jul Copper307.4505-23-18307.4500
05-08-18Sell Aug LCattle104.47505-21-18100.1175010606
05-08-18Sell Aug FCattle143.7505-21-18139.819756412
05-16-18Buy Jul Copper307.0005-18-18307.0000
05-04-18Sell Jul Beans103705-14-181017-69624730
04-12-18Sell Jun TBond145-1204-27-18143-0721569116
04-11-18Sell Jun 10YrNote120-2704-26-18119-09156211833
04-11-18Sell Jun 5YrNote114-07804-25-18113-09594715373
04-06-18Buy Jun Hogs732504-18-18 7852.5211015985
04-03-18Buy Jun Canadian$781804-12-18 7958140011570
03-12-18Buy Jun Gold1326.703-16-18 1318.7(800)(2346)
03-12-18Buy Jun 10YrNote120-0603-20-18 120-04(63)(636)
03-07-18Sell Jun Oil607503-20-18 6220(1450)(5731)
02-26-18Buy Jul Silver16.71202-28-1816.5(1060)(2677)
02-26-18Buy Jun Aussie$785102-27-18 7899(520)(3782)
02-15-18Sell Jul OJ148.1503-07-18 141.959308611
02-20-18Sell Jun Swiss1079003-05-18 107289303019
02-13-18Buy Jun minSP2664.503-01-182684.510001683
02-02-18Sell Jun NZ$730002-13-1872703002098
01-30-18Sell Jul Silver17.23502-12-1816.73525006313
01-23-18Sell Jun Hogs84.0002-01-1883.004003030
01-10-18Buy Jun Yen906001-18-1890884201909

 (KDelta Futures Trader is a proprietary short term breakout model created in the 1980’s that generates about 7 trades a month. Readers should periodically check this site for updates as not all updates generate email notifications.

Open Positions KDelta Futures Trader

DateSignalContractEntry StopExit (Limit)Trailing stop

Pending Signals KDelta Futures Trader

Entry StopContractEntryExit limitTrailing
Stop
SellDec Euro112451105011305
BuyMar US$969298059850

2018 Closed Positions: Futures Trader

DateSignalContractEntry PriceExit DateExit Price Contract P/(L)P/(L) $10,000
margin/contract
Total=$25,330$119,927
11-20-18SellJan WTI Oil549011-20-18529020005122
11-20-18SellDec Nikkei2149011-20-1821410400769
11-08-18SellDec Canadian$759811-16-18759170553
11-09-18SellDec SoyMeal277511-16-182782(42)(764)
11-08-18BuyDec Cotton815711-08-188060(485)(1664)
11-01-18BuyDec Cocoa228011-01-182231(490)(2344)
10-26-18BuyDec Cocoa223110-29-18223100
10-26-18SellDec Copper2717510-26-1827450(687)(2016)
10-24-18SellDec KCWheat504-010-26-18275353122185
10-24-18SellDec Wheat505-010-25-18486-09506909
10-24-18SellDec Copper2725510-25-1827535(700)(2053)
10-23-18BuyDec Gold123710-23-181234(300)(802)
09-24-18BuyNov HeatOil20274009-28-182349531717586
09-21-18BuyNov UnGas2022109-28-182098031887245
09-21-18BuyNov WTI Oil707509-26-1871493702170
09-21-18BuyNov HeatOil2230609-25-182310033357978
09-20-18BuyDec miniSP2917.2509-23-182925387646
09-21-18BuyNov WTI Oil713009-21-187030(500)(1466)
09-21-18BuyNov UnGas2025009-21-1819950(1260)(2864)
09-14-18SellDec BeanOil276709-20-1827501021545
09-19-18BuyNov WTI Oil709009-20-187020(350)(2053)
09-17-18SellDec Corn349-209-20-18347-21001136
09-18-18SellDec Cotton805509-18-18785510003430
09-12-18SellDec BeanOil280009-13-18279530455
09-11-18BuyNov mini Oil705509-13-186890(825)(3947)
09-07-18SellDec Aussie716909-11-1870977005091
08-15-18SellOct Oil650908-17-18650900
08-10-18SellSep Aussie731308-16-1872852802036
08-14-18SellSep Copper2673008-15-182595019506331
08-09-18SellSep NZ$668908-10-18657311609583
08-09-18SellSep Euro1156408-14-181145413755495
08-06-18SellSep Euro1158208-08-1811644(775)(3063)
07-31-18SellOct Sugar107907-31-1810513132995
07-09-18SellAug NatGas285907-17-1827669307045
07-12-18SellSep Swiss1005507-16-181005500
06-22-18BuyAug NatGas294506-28-1829955003788
05-30-18BuyJul Coffee1214506-01-181241310054350
05-22-18BuyJul NatGas290105-29-1829222101590
05-23-18BuyJul Corn408-005-25-18404-4(175)(2210)
05-21-18BuyJul Oil723505-23-187167(680)(2523)
05-22-18BuyJun miniSP274105-22-182728(650)(1094)
05-21-18BuyJun NZ$693505-22-18693500
05-14-18BuyJun NatGas284505-16-182825 (200)(1515)
05-09-18SellJul Cocoa272905-09-182754(250)(1337)
05-04-18BuyJul Cotton858305-07-1886332501136
05-03-18BuyJul Corn406-405-07-18403-2(163)(2052)
04-25-18SellJun NZ$716505-02-187012153010699
04-30-18BuyJun Corn401-205-01-18402-037473
04-27-18BuyJun Jul BeanMeal394.404-30-18394.400
04-25-18SellJun Euro1225504-27-181213914506277
04-25-18BuyJun US$905204-27-18916411206171
03-23-18SellJun Nikkei2051503-24-1820560(250)(480)
03-23-18SellJun Nikkei2050003-23-1820415425816
03-22-18BuyJun 10 Yr Note120-2403-22-18120-17(219)(2038)
03-22-18BuyJun 10 Yr Note120-2303-22-18120-14(281)(2689)
03-21-18SellJun NZ$717003-22-187222(520)(3636)
02-21-18SellMar 30 Yr Bond143-0402-22-18143-0333113
02-14-18SellMar 5 Yr Note114-09.2502-16-18114-0651824
02-12-18BuyMar BeanMeal351.302-13-18370.5192017454
02-01-18BuyMar Cocoa201302-05-1820564303399
01-24-18BuyMar Canadian810601-25-188091(150)(1049)
01-10-18BuyMar Yen897801-15-18906611004444
01-09-18BuyMar 10 Yr Note123-1201-10-18122-314063515
01-03-18BuyMar Nikkei 2252307501-04-182337515003846
12-26-17BuyFeb WTI Oil590001-03-18610910904776
12-28-17BuyMar Swiss1025401-02-181034311123612

(*While trading position updates will be frequent, readers should check for updates without waiting for email notifications)

P/(L) per $10,000 uses multiplier so all trades are of equal margin per $10,000 investment)

See our Risk Disclaimer at the bottom. Note that familiarity with Futures Trading is assumed for readers. Order entry dates, the name of the commodity futures contract, the Exit price (or TBD=to be determined) as well as the trailing stops are all identified. All entry price signals and trailing stops displayed are assumed to be Stop orders at that price and all Exit prices are assumed to be Limit orders, unless otherwise noted. Limit Order=buy or sell a security or commodity at a specified price or better: Stop Order= buy or sell  once the price of the commodity reaches a specified price, known as the stop price. When the stop price is reached, a stop order becomes a market order to execute at current price. P=profit & (L)= loss. A P/(L) is shown for both a single quantity futures contract order as well as a theoretical order using $10,000 for the Order of the specified commodity futures contract. The Futures Contract month is abbreviated: Jan=January—Dec=December

Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

This Site is for informational purposes only and should be used at each individuals own discretion.  The reader of this material agrees that they are acting of their own accord and waive the Site and its directors or affiliates of any liability associated with losses or hardships which may result from using information within the Site.

Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade.

You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown.

By using this Site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your own sole responsibility, and the Site or anybody associated with the Site cannot be held responsible for any losses that are incurred as a result.

If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. It is possible to lose substantially more money than you deposited in your account, if you use leverage in your trading. This can result in a large debt to broker, and financial hardship.

Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move” or if the price “gaps” from one price to another (with no offsetting orders available between the two prices to get you out of your trade). The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.

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