12-04-18 Strong indications of a pause in Fed rate hikes & improved potential of a China Trade deal have both been negated by a meaningless yield curve inversion in the 3 & 5 Yr Treasuries & panic disbelief in a Trade deal as China remains silent. Soybeans, Copper, Aussie$ & to a lesser degree Oil price action may be a “tell” as to what’s next for the stock market short term. SS model went short New Zealand $ tonight & just missed Sells in Copper & Aussie $.
11-20-18 If there is no China-US Trade deal hope post Xi-Trump meeting (early December), then Oil will fall into the $40’s & equity rallies would be capped. A Trade deal seems unlikely, but perhaps a false hope will arise initially. Fed will hike rates in Dec’, but Fed guidance may hint of a pause which would boost stocks short term.
11-01-18 Soybean Oil trade exits with +90% ROI
10-05-18 Bond yields continue to surge & risk hurting stocks next week.
09-17-18 …most commodities will remain deeply oversold long term until US Dollar moves lower & Emerging Markets like Brazil (EWZ) move higher.
05-06-18 As we have been saying for months, buying any $3+ dollar dip in Oil …is the strategy as Trump continues to fulfill campaign promises working toward a confrontation that drains the Iranian military swamp of petrodollars. …Oil prices are breaking out … towards our $71.7 – $75.25 target zone.
04-30-18 Oil may be overbought basis hedge funds and held back by the strong $, but we have advised buying all dips since our January newsletter expecting Trump to escalate war rhetoric with Iran into May/June.
New Trading Model: KDelta SS (Exits are determined in closing & opening minutes)
KDelta SS Open Trades
| Date | Order | Entry | Exit | Stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-04-18 | Sell Dec NZ$ | 6933 | TBD | 6946 |
KDelta SS Closed Trades 2018
| Date | Order | Entry | Exit Date | Price | P/(L) per contract | Profit per $10,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD = | $31,629 | $179,465 | ||||
| 11-16-18 | Buy Dec Copper | 27460 | 11-20-18 | 27790 | 825 | 2419 |
| 10-23-18 | Sell Dec BeanOil | 2917 | 11-01-18 | 2834 | 498 | 9054 |
| 10-24-18 | Buy Dec 10Yr Note | 118-08 | 10-31-18 | 118-21 | 406 | 3517 |
| 10-23-18 | Sell Dec NatGas | 3000 | 10-30-18 | 3250 | 500 | 2331 |
| 10-24-18 | Buy Dec 30Yr Bond | 138-05 | 10-30-18 | 138-24 | 594 | 2347 |
| 10-23-18 | Buy Dec Aussie | 7085 | 10-24-18 | 7071 | (140) | (1018) |
| 10-23-18 | Buy Dec 10yr Note | 118-10 | 10-23-18 | 118-13 | 93 | 808 |
| 09-28-18 | Buy Dec Coffee | 9915 | 10-15-18 | 11915 | 7500 | 30,300 |
| 08-31-18 | Sell Dec Hogs | 5400 | 09-04-18 | 5525 | (500) | (3788) |
| 08-10-18 | Sell Dec BeanOil | 2884 | 08-17-18 | 2873 | 66 | 1000 |
| 07-20-18 | Buy Dec Wheat | 513-0 | 07-27-18 | 547-4 | 1,675 | 11,279 |
| 07-19-18 | Sell Sep 10 Yr Tr | 120-02 | 07-19-18 | 120-08 | (188) | (1266) |
| 07-19-18 | Buy Dec Oats | 239-2 | 07-19-18 | 235-6 | (175) | (2358) |
| 07-19-18 | Buy Sep NZ$ | 6783 | 07-19-18 | 6750 | (330) | (2727) |
| 07-0218 | Sell Sep OJ | 16140 | 07-10-18 | 16685 | 817 | 7280 |
| 06-06-18 | Buy Aug Gold | 1303.6 | 06-13-18 | 1299.6 | (400) | (1173) |
| 06-04-18 | Buy Jul Copper | 309.85 | 06-12-18 | 324.2 | 3587 | 11647 |
| 05-15-18 | Buy Jul Sugar | 1159 | 06-04-18 | 1250 | 1120 | 10697 |
| 05-20-18 | Buy Jul BeanOil | 3118 | 05-25-18 | 3140 | 132 | 2000 |
| 05-20-18 | Buy Jul Copper | 307.45 | 05-23-18 | 307.45 | 0 | 0 |
| 05-08-18 | Sell Aug LCattle | 104.475 | 05-21-18 | 100.1 | 1750 | 10606 |
| 05-08-18 | Sell Aug FCattle | 143.75 | 05-21-18 | 139.8 | 1975 | 6412 |
| 05-16-18 | Buy Jul Copper | 307.00 | 05-18-18 | 307.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 05-04-18 | Sell Jul Beans | 1037 | 05-14-18 | 1017-6 | 962 | 4730 |
| 04-12-18 | Sell Jun TBond | 145-12 | 04-27-18 | 143-07 | 2156 | 9116 |
| 04-11-18 | Sell Jun 10YrNote | 120-27 | 04-26-18 | 119-09 | 1562 | 11833 |
| 04-11-18 | Sell Jun 5YrNote | 114-078 | 04-25-18 | 113-095 | 947 | 15373 |
| 04-06-18 | Buy Jun Hogs | 7325 | 04-18-18 | 7852.5 | 2110 | 15985 |
| 04-03-18 | Buy Jun Canadian$ | 7818 | 04-12-18 | 7958 | 1400 | 11570 |
| 03-12-18 | Buy Jun Gold | 1326.7 | 03-16-18 | 1318.7 | (800) | (2346) |
| 03-12-18 | Buy Jun 10YrNote | 120-06 | 03-20-18 | 120-04 | (63) | (636) |
| 03-07-18 | Sell Jun Oil | 6075 | 03-20-18 | 6220 | (1450) | (5731) |
| 02-26-18 | Buy Jul Silver | 16.712 | 02-28-18 | 16.5 | (1060) | (2677) |
| 02-26-18 | Buy Jun Aussie$ | 7851 | 02-27-18 | 7899 | (520) | (3782) |
| 02-15-18 | Sell Jul OJ | 148.15 | 03-07-18 | 141.95 | 930 | 8611 |
| 02-20-18 | Sell Jun Swiss | 10790 | 03-05-18 | 10728 | 930 | 3019 |
| 02-13-18 | Buy Jun minSP | 2664.5 | 03-01-18 | 2684.5 | 1000 | 1683 |
| 02-02-18 | Sell Jun NZ$ | 7300 | 02-13-18 | 7270 | 300 | 2098 |
| 01-30-18 | Sell Jul Silver | 17.235 | 02-12-18 | 16.735 | 2500 | 6313 |
| 01-23-18 | Sell Jun Hogs | 84.00 | 02-01-18 | 83.00 | 400 | 3030 |
| 01-10-18 | Buy Jun Yen | 9060 | 01-18-18 | 9088 | 420 | 1909 |
(KDelta Futures Trader is a proprietary short term breakout model created in the 1980’s that generates about 7 trades a month. Readers should periodically check this site for updates as not all updates generate email notifications.
Open Positions KDelta Futures Trader
| Date | Signal | Contract | Entry Stop | Exit (Limit) | Trailing stop |
Pending Signals KDelta Futures Trader
| Entry Stop | Contract | Entry | Exit limit | Trailing Stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sell | Dec Euro | 11245 | 11050 | 11305 |
| Buy | Mar US$ | 9692 | 9805 | 9850 |
2018 Closed Positions: Futures Trader
| Date | Signal | Contract | Entry Price | Exit Date | Exit Price | Contract P/(L) | P/(L) $10,000 margin/contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total= | $25,330 | $119,927 | |||||
| 11-20-18 | Sell | Jan WTI Oil | 5490 | 11-20-18 | 5290 | 2000 | 5122 |
| 11-20-18 | Sell | Dec Nikkei | 21490 | 11-20-18 | 21410 | 400 | 769 |
| 11-08-18 | Sell | Dec Canadian$ | 7598 | 11-16-18 | 7591 | 70 | 553 |
| 11-09-18 | Sell | Dec SoyMeal | 2775 | 11-16-18 | 2782 | (42) | (764) |
| 11-08-18 | Buy | Dec Cotton | 8157 | 11-08-18 | 8060 | (485) | (1664) |
| 11-01-18 | Buy | Dec Cocoa | 2280 | 11-01-18 | 2231 | (490) | (2344) |
| 10-26-18 | Buy | Dec Cocoa | 2231 | 10-29-18 | 2231 | 0 | 0 |
| 10-26-18 | Sell | Dec Copper | 27175 | 10-26-18 | 27450 | (687) | (2016) |
| 10-24-18 | Sell | Dec KCWheat | 504-0 | 10-26-18 | 27535 | 312 | 2185 |
| 10-24-18 | Sell | Dec Wheat | 505-0 | 10-25-18 | 486-0 | 950 | 6909 |
| 10-24-18 | Sell | Dec Copper | 27255 | 10-25-18 | 27535 | (700) | (2053) |
| 10-23-18 | Buy | Dec Gold | 1237 | 10-23-18 | 1234 | (300) | (802) |
| 09-24-18 | Buy | Nov HeatOil | 202740 | 09-28-18 | 23495 | 3171 | 7586 |
| 09-21-18 | Buy | Nov UnGas | 20221 | 09-28-18 | 20980 | 3188 | 7245 |
| 09-21-18 | Buy | Nov WTI Oil | 7075 | 09-26-18 | 7149 | 370 | 2170 |
| 09-21-18 | Buy | Nov HeatOil | 22306 | 09-25-18 | 23100 | 3335 | 7978 |
| 09-20-18 | Buy | Dec miniSP | 2917.25 | 09-23-18 | 2925 | 387 | 646 |
| 09-21-18 | Buy | Nov WTI Oil | 7130 | 09-21-18 | 7030 | (500) | (1466) |
| 09-21-18 | Buy | Nov UnGas | 20250 | 09-21-18 | 19950 | (1260) | (2864) |
| 09-14-18 | Sell | Dec BeanOil | 2767 | 09-20-18 | 2750 | 102 | 1545 |
| 09-19-18 | Buy | Nov WTI Oil | 7090 | 09-20-18 | 7020 | (350) | (2053) |
| 09-17-18 | Sell | Dec Corn | 349-2 | 09-20-18 | 347-2 | 100 | 1136 |
| 09-18-18 | Sell | Dec Cotton | 8055 | 09-18-18 | 7855 | 1000 | 3430 |
| 09-12-18 | Sell | Dec BeanOil | 2800 | 09-13-18 | 2795 | 30 | 455 |
| 09-11-18 | Buy | Nov mini Oil | 7055 | 09-13-18 | 6890 | (825) | (3947) |
| 09-07-18 | Sell | Dec Aussie | 7169 | 09-11-18 | 7097 | 700 | 5091 |
| 08-15-18 | Sell | Oct Oil | 6509 | 08-17-18 | 6509 | 0 | 0 |
| 08-10-18 | Sell | Sep Aussie | 7313 | 08-16-18 | 7285 | 280 | 2036 |
| 08-14-18 | Sell | Sep Copper | 26730 | 08-15-18 | 25950 | 1950 | 6331 |
| 08-09-18 | Sell | Sep NZ$ | 6689 | 08-10-18 | 6573 | 1160 | 9583 |
| 08-09-18 | Sell | Sep Euro | 11564 | 08-14-18 | 11454 | 1375 | 5495 |
| 08-06-18 | Sell | Sep Euro | 11582 | 08-08-18 | 11644 | (775) | (3063) |
| 07-31-18 | Sell | Oct Sugar | 1079 | 07-31-18 | 1051 | 313 | 2995 |
| 07-09-18 | Sell | Aug NatGas | 2859 | 07-17-18 | 2766 | 930 | 7045 |
| 07-12-18 | Sell | Sep Swiss | 10055 | 07-16-18 | 10055 | 0 | 0 |
| 06-22-18 | Buy | Aug NatGas | 2945 | 06-28-18 | 2995 | 500 | 3788 |
| 05-30-18 | Buy | Jul Coffee | 12145 | 06-01-18 | 12413 | 1005 | 4350 |
| 05-22-18 | Buy | Jul NatGas | 2901 | 05-29-18 | 2922 | 210 | 1590 |
| 05-23-18 | Buy | Jul Corn | 408-0 | 05-25-18 | 404-4 | (175) | (2210) |
| 05-21-18 | Buy | Jul Oil | 7235 | 05-23-18 | 7167 | (680) | (2523) |
| 05-22-18 | Buy | Jun miniSP | 2741 | 05-22-18 | 2728 | (650) | (1094) |
| 05-21-18 | Buy | Jun NZ$ | 6935 | 05-22-18 | 6935 | 0 | 0 |
| 05-14-18 | Buy | Jun NatGas | 2845 | 05-16-18 | 2825 | (200) | (1515) |
| 05-09-18 | Sell | Jul Cocoa | 2729 | 05-09-18 | 2754 | (250) | (1337) |
| 05-04-18 | Buy | Jul Cotton | 8583 | 05-07-18 | 8633 | 250 | 1136 |
| 05-03-18 | Buy | Jul Corn | 406-4 | 05-07-18 | 403-2 | (163) | (2052) |
| 04-25-18 | Sell | Jun NZ$ | 7165 | 05-02-18 | 7012 | 1530 | 10699 |
| 04-30-18 | Buy | Jun Corn | 401-2 | 05-01-18 | 402-0 | 37 | 473 |
| 04-27-18 | Buy | Jun Jul BeanMeal | 394.4 | 04-30-18 | 394.4 | 0 | 0 |
| 04-25-18 | Sell | Jun Euro | 12255 | 04-27-18 | 12139 | 1450 | 6277 |
| 04-25-18 | Buy | Jun US$ | 9052 | 04-27-18 | 9164 | 1120 | 6171 |
| 03-23-18 | Sell | Jun Nikkei | 20515 | 03-24-18 | 20560 | (250) | (480) |
| 03-23-18 | Sell | Jun Nikkei | 20500 | 03-23-18 | 20415 | 425 | 816 |
| 03-22-18 | Buy | Jun 10 Yr Note | 120-24 | 03-22-18 | 120-17 | (219) | (2038) |
| 03-22-18 | Buy | Jun 10 Yr Note | 120-23 | 03-22-18 | 120-14 | (281) | (2689) |
| 03-21-18 | Sell | Jun NZ$ | 7170 | 03-22-18 | 7222 | (520) | (3636) |
| 02-21-18 | Sell | Mar 30 Yr Bond | 143-04 | 02-22-18 | 143-03 | 33 | 113 |
| 02-14-18 | Sell | Mar 5 Yr Note | 114-09.25 | 02-16-18 | 114-06 | 51 | 824 |
| 02-12-18 | Buy | Mar BeanMeal | 351.3 | 02-13-18 | 370.5 | 1920 | 17454 |
| 02-01-18 | Buy | Mar Cocoa | 2013 | 02-05-18 | 2056 | 430 | 3399 |
| 01-24-18 | Buy | Mar Canadian | 8106 | 01-25-18 | 8091 | (150) | (1049) |
| 01-10-18 | Buy | Mar Yen | 8978 | 01-15-18 | 9066 | 1100 | 4444 |
| 01-09-18 | Buy | Mar 10 Yr Note | 123-12 | 01-10-18 | 122-31 | 406 | 3515 |
| 01-03-18 | Buy | Mar Nikkei 225 | 23075 | 01-04-18 | 23375 | 1500 | 3846 |
| 12-26-17 | Buy | Feb WTI Oil | 5900 | 01-03-18 | 6109 | 1090 | 4776 |
| 12-28-17 | Buy | Mar Swiss | 10254 | 01-02-18 | 10343 | 1112 | 3612 |
(*While trading position updates will be frequent, readers should check for updates without waiting for email notifications)
P/(L) per $10,000 uses multiplier so all trades are of equal margin per $10,000 investment)
See our Risk Disclaimer at the bottom. Note that familiarity with Futures Trading is assumed for readers. Order entry dates, the name of the commodity futures contract, the Exit price (or TBD=to be determined) as well as the trailing stops are all identified. All entry price signals and trailing stops displayed are assumed to be Stop orders at that price and all Exit prices are assumed to be Limit orders, unless otherwise noted. Limit Order=buy or sell a security or commodity at a specified price or better: Stop Order= buy or sell once the price of the commodity reaches a specified price, known as the stop price. When the stop price is reached, a stop order becomes a market order to execute at current price. P=profit & (L)= loss. A P/(L) is shown for both a single quantity futures contract order as well as a theoretical order using $10,000 for the Order of the specified commodity futures contract. The Futures Contract month is abbreviated: Jan=January—Dec=December
Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement
This Site is for informational purposes only and should be used at each individuals own discretion. The reader of this material agrees that they are acting of their own accord and waive the Site and its directors or affiliates of any liability associated with losses or hardships which may result from using information within the Site.
Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade.
You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown.
By using this Site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your own sole responsibility, and the Site or anybody associated with the Site cannot be held responsible for any losses that are incurred as a result.
If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. It is possible to lose substantially more money than you deposited in your account, if you use leverage in your trading. This can result in a large debt to broker, and financial hardship.
Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move” or if the price “gaps” from one price to another (with no offsetting orders available between the two prices to get you out of your trade). The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.
