10-15-18 While the model is on the verge of exiting early this week, we are exiting Dec’ Coffee here at 119.15 after exceeding upside targets in extreme “short term” overbought territory. Gains of 303% on investment or over $7,000 per contract over the the past few weeks. Coffee still looks Bullish long term – after some consolidation. With Coffee & Sugar in sync & upside March Sugar targets remaining in the 13.65 to 14.35 zone, its possible Coffee will continue until Sugar reaches its upside exhaustion area this week.
10-09-18 Still long Coffee. Potential to 117 area, but letting the model dictate the exit. Current gains are ~219% over invested margin, over $5,000/contract.
10-05-18 Bond yields continue to surge & risk hurting stocks next week as Bonds are now leading stocks.
10-02-18 Heating Oil & energies closed out with large gains as instructed. Our Coffee Buy on the 28th is paying off with huge gains this week. Coffee and Sugar are being boosted by rumor of a shipping transportation shortage.
09-28-18 We closed out the last of our energy trades. fundamentals favor more upside in 2018 while inventories fall. Coffee has triggered a Buy today. A long term low here is overdue with better prospects once Brazil stabilizes.
09-23-18 … energy prices are again pushing to new contract highs as shrinking inventories & limits on OPEC & US output persist… we are impressed by the persistent attempts to break higher.
09-17-18 …most commodities are deeply oversold long term until US Dollar moves lower & Emerging Markets like Brazil (EWZ) move higher.
09-11-18 Yuan and EM could eventually be a trigger for a correction in the stock market.
05-06-18 As we have been saying for months, buying any $3+ dollar dip in Oil …is the strategy as Trump continues to fulfill campaign promises working toward a confrontation that drains the Iranian military swamp of petrodollars. …Oil prices are breaking out … towards our $71.7 – $75.25 target zone.
04-30-18 The US$ continues to show strength hitting our first higher confidence short term target of 9165 last week. Oil may be overbought basis hedge funds and held back by the strong $, but we have advised buying all dips since our January newsletter expecting Trump to escalate war rhetoric with Iran into May/June.
(*While trading position updates will be frequent, readers should check for updates without waiting for email notifications)
P/(L) per $10,000 uses multiplier so all trades are of equal margin per $10,000 investment)
New Trading Model: KDelta SS (Exits are determined in closing & opening minutes)
KDelta SS Open Trades
| Date | Order | Entry | Exit | Stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23-18 | Buy Dec 10Yr Note | 118-10 | TBD | 118-04 |
KDelta SS Closed Trades 2018
| Date | Order | Entry | Exit Date | Price | P/(L) per contract | Profit per $10,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD = | $28,853 | $160,007 | ||||
| 09-28-18 | Buy Dec Coffee | 9915 | 10-15-18 | 11915 | 7500 | 30,300 |
| 08-31-18 | Sell Dec Hogs | 5400 | 09-04-18 | 5525 | (500) | (3788) |
| 08-10-18 | Sell Dec BeanOil | 2884 | 08-17-18 | 2873 | 66 | 1000 |
| 07-20-18 | Buy Dec Wheat | 513-0 | 07-27-18 | 547-4 | 1,675 | 11,279 |
| 07-19-18 | Sell Sep 10 Yr Tr | 120-02 | 07-19-18 | 120-08 | (188) | (1266) |
| 07-19-18 | Buy Dec Oats | 239-2 | 07-19-18 | 235-6 | (175) | (2358) |
| 07-19-18 | Buy Sep NZ$ | 6783 | 07-19-18 | 6750 | (330) | (2727) |
| 07-0218 | Sell Sep OJ | 16140 | 07-10-18 | 16685 | 817 | 7280 |
| 06-06-18 | Buy Aug Gold | 1303.6 | 06-13-18 | 1299.6 | (400) | (1173) |
| 06-04-18 | Buy Jul Copper | 309.85 | 06-12-18 | 324.2 | 3587 | 11647 |
| 05-15-18 | Buy Jul Sugar | 1159 | 06-04-18 | 1250 | 1120 | 10697 |
| 05-20-18 | Buy Jul BeanOil | 3118 | 05-25-18 | 3140 | 132 | 2000 |
| 05-20-18 | Buy Jul Copper | 307.45 | 05-23-18 | 307.45 | 0 | 0 |
| 05-08-18 | Sell Aug LCattle | 104.475 | 05-21-18 | 100.1 | 1750 | 10606 |
| 05-08-18 | Sell Aug FCattle | 143.75 | 05-21-18 | 139.8 | 1975 | 6412 |
| 05-16-18 | Buy Jul Copper | 307.00 | 05-18-18 | 307.00 | 0 | 0 |
| 05-04-18 | Sell Jul Beans | 1037 | 05-14-18 | 1017-6 | 962 | 4730 |
| 04-12-18 | Sell Jun TBond | 145-12 | 04-27-18 | 143-07 | 2156 | 9116 |
| 04-11-18 | Sell Jun 10YrNote | 120-27 | 04-26-18 | 119-09 | 1562 | 11833 |
| 04-11-18 | Sell Jun 5YrNote | 114-078 | 04-25-18 | 113-095 | 947 | 15373 |
| 04-06-18 | Buy Jun Hogs | 7325 | 04-18-18 | 7852.5 | 2110 | 15985 |
| 04-03-18 | Buy Jun Canadian$ | 7818 | 04-12-18 | 7958 | 1400 | 11570 |
| 03-12-18 | Buy Jun Gold | 1326.7 | 03-16-18 | 1318.7 | (800) | (2346) |
| 03-12-18 | Buy Jun 10YrNote | 120-06 | 03-20-18 | 120-04 | (63) | (636) |
| 03-07-18 | Sell Jun Oil | 6075 | 03-20-18 | 6220 | (1450) | (5731) |
| 02-26-18 | Buy Jul Silver | 16.712 | 02-28-18 | 16.5 | (1060) | (2677) |
| 02-26-18 | Buy Jun Aussie$ | 7851 | 02-27-18 | 7899 | (520) | (3782) |
| 02-15-18 | Sell Jul OJ | 148.15 | 03-07-18 | 141.95 | 930 | 8611 |
| 02-20-18 | Sell Jun Swiss | 10790 | 03-05-18 | 10728 | 930 | 3019 |
| 02-13-18 | Buy Jun minSP | 2664.5 | 03-01-18 | 2684.5 | 1000 | 1683 |
| 02-02-18 | Sell Jun NZ$ | 7300 | 02-13-18 | 7270 | 300 | 2098 |
| 01-30-18 | Sell Jul Silver | 17.235 | 02-12-18 | 16.735 | 2500 | 6313 |
| 01-23-18 | Sell Jun Hogs | 84.00 | 02-01-18 | 83.00 | 400 | 3030 |
| 01-10-18 | Buy Jun Yen | 9060 | 01-18-18 | 9088 | 420 | 1909 |
(KDelta Futures Trader is a proprietary short term breakout model created in the 1980’s that generates about 7 trades a month. Readers should periodically check this site for updates as not all updates generate email notifications.
Open Positions KDelta Futures Trader
| Date | Signal | Contract | Entry | Exit (Limit) | Trailing stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22-18 | Buy | Dec Gold | 1237 | 1251 | 1234 |
Pending Signals KDelta Futures Trader
| Entry Stop | Contract | Entry | Exit limit | Trailing Stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sell | Dec KC Wheat | 504-0 | 498-2 | 509-4 |
| Sell | Dec Wheat | 505-4 | 486-0 | 509-4 |
| Sell | Dec Copper | 27255 | 25870 | 27535 |
2018 Closed Positions: Futures Trader
| Date | Signal | Contract | Entry Price | Exit Date | Exit Price | Contract P/(L) | P/(L) $10,000 margin/contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total= | $25,312 | $114,034 | |||||
| 09-24-18 | Buy | Nov HeatOil | 202740 | 09-28-18 | 23495 | 3171 | 7586 |
| 09-21-18 | Buy | Nov UnGas | 20221 | 09-28-18 | 20980 | 3188 | 7245 |
| 09-21-18 | Buy | Nov WTI Oil | 7075 | 09-26-18 | 7149 | 370 | 2170 |
| 09-21-18 | Buy | Nov HeatOil | 22306 | 09-25-18 | 23100 | 3335 | 7978 |
| 09-20-18 | Buy | Dec miniSP | 2917.25 | 09-23-18 | 2925 | 387 | 646 |
| 09-21-18 | Buy | Nov WTI Oil | 7130 | 09-21-18 | 7030 | (500) | (1466) |
| 09-21-18 | Buy | Nov UnGas | 20250 | 09-21-18 | 19950 | (1260) | (2864) |
| 09-14-18 | Sell | Dec BeanOil | 2767 | 09-20-18 | 2750 | 102 | 1545 |
| 09-19-18 | Buy | Nov WTI Oil | 7090 | 09-20-18 | 7020 | (350) | (2053) |
| 09-17-18 | Sell | Dec Corn | 349-2 | 09-20-18 | 347-2 | 100 | 1136 |
| 09-18-18 | Sell | Dec Cotton | 8055 | 09-18-18 | 7855 | 1000 | 3430 |
| 09-12-18 | Sell | Dec BeanOil | 2800 | 09-13-18 | 2795 | 30 | 455 |
| 09-11-18 | Buy | Nov mini Oil | 7055 | 09-13-18 | 6890 | (825) | (3947) |
| 09-07-18 | Sell | Dec Aussie | 7169 | 09-11-18 | 7097 | 700 | 5091 |
| 08-15-18 | Sell | Oct Oil | 6509 | 08-17-18 | 6509 | 0 | 0 |
| 08-10-18 | Sell | Sep Aussie | 7313 | 08-16-18 | 7285 | 280 | 2036 |
| 08-14-18 | Sell | Sep Copper | 26730 | 08-15-18 | 25950 | 1950 | 6331 |
| 08-09-18 | Sell | Sep NZ$ | 6689 | 08-10-18 | 6573 | 1160 | 9583 |
| 08-09-18 | Sell | Sep Euro | 11564 | 08-14-18 | 11454 | 1375 | 5495 |
| 08-06-18 | Sell | Sep Euro | 11582 | 08-08-18 | 11644 | (775) | (3063) |
| 07-31-18 | Sell | Oct Sugar | 1079 | 07-31-18 | 1051 | 313 | 2995 |
| 07-09-18 | Sell | Aug NatGas | 2859 | 07-17-18 | 2766 | 930 | 7045 |
| 07-12-18 | Sell | Sep Swiss | 10055 | 07-16-18 | 10055 | 0 | 0 |
| 06-22-18 | Buy | Aug NatGas | 2945 | 06-28-18 | 2995 | 500 | 3788 |
| 05-30-18 | Buy | Jul Coffee | 12145 | 06-01-18 | 12413 | 1005 | 4350 |
| 05-22-18 | Buy | Jul NatGas | 2901 | 05-29-18 | 2922 | 210 | 1590 |
| 05-23-18 | Buy | Jul Corn | 408-0 | 05-25-18 | 404-4 | (175) | (2210) |
| 05-21-18 | Buy | Jul Oil | 7235 | 05-23-18 | 7167 | (680) | (2523) |
| 05-22-18 | Buy | Jun miniSP | 2741 | 05-22-18 | 2728 | (650) | (1094) |
| 05-21-18 | Buy | Jun NZ$ | 6935 | 05-22-18 | 6935 | 0 | 0 |
| 05-14-18 | Buy | Jun NatGas | 2845 | 05-16-18 | 2825 | (200) | (1515) |
| 05-09-18 | Sell | Jul Cocoa | 2729 | 05-09-18 | 2754 | (250) | (1337) |
| 05-04-18 | Buy | Jul Cotton | 8583 | 05-07-18 | 8633 | 250 | 1136 |
| 05-03-18 | Buy | Jul Corn | 406-4 | 05-07-18 | 403-2 | (163) | (2052) |
| 04-25-18 | Sell | Jun NZ$ | 7165 | 05-02-18 | 7012 | 1530 | 10699 |
| 04-30-18 | Buy | Jun Corn | 401-2 | 05-01-18 | 402-0 | 37 | 473 |
| 04-27-18 | Buy | Jun Jul BeanMeal | 394.4 | 04-30-18 | 394.4 | 0 | 0 |
| 04-25-18 | Sell | Jun Euro | 12255 | 04-27-18 | 12139 | 1450 | 6277 |
| 04-25-18 | Buy | Jun US$ | 9052 | 04-27-18 | 9164 | 1120 | 6171 |
| 03-23-18 | Sell | Jun Nikkei | 20515 | 03-24-18 | 20560 | (250) | (480) |
| 03-23-18 | Sell | Jun Nikkei | 20500 | 03-23-18 | 20415 | 425 | 816 |
| 03-22-18 | Buy | Jun 10 Yr Note | 120-24 | 03-22-18 | 120-17 | (219) | (2038) |
| 03-22-18 | Buy | Jun 10 Yr Note | 120-23 | 03-22-18 | 120-14 | (281) | (2689) |
| 03-21-18 | Sell | Jun NZ$ | 7170 | 03-22-18 | 7222 | (520) | (3636) |
| 02-21-18 | Sell | Mar 30 Yr Bond | 143-04 | 02-22-18 | 143-03 | 33 | 113 |
| 02-14-18 | Sell | Mar 5 Yr Note | 114-09.25 | 02-16-18 | 114-06 | 51 | 824 |
| 02-12-18 | Buy | Mar BeanMeal | 351.3 | 02-13-18 | 370.5 | 1920 | 17454 |
| 02-01-18 | Buy | Mar Cocoa | 2013 | 02-05-18 | 2056 | 430 | 3399 |
| 01-24-18 | Buy | Mar Canadian | 8106 | 01-25-18 | 8091 | (150) | (1049) |
| 01-10-18 | Buy | Mar Yen | 8978 | 01-15-18 | 9066 | 1100 | 4444 |
| 01-09-18 | Buy | Mar 10 Yr Note | 123-12 | 01-10-18 | 122-31 | 406 | 3515 |
| 01-03-18 | Buy | Mar Nikkei 225 | 23075 | 01-04-18 | 23375 | 1500 | 3846 |
| 12-26-17 | Buy | Feb WTI Oil | 5900 | 01-03-18 | 6109 | 1090 | 4776 |
| 12-28-17 | Buy | Mar Swiss | 10254 | 01-02-18 | 10343 | 1112 | 3612 |
