From Hormuz to the Treasury market, oil is again setting the price of risk Markets have rediscovered an old and inconvenient truth: the price of money and the price of energy are seldom strangers for long. When oil rises persistently, inflation expectations follow; when inflation expectations rise, bondholders demand compensation;...
The Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting is unlikely to produce an interest-rate increase. The more consequential question is whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will telegraph a September hike—or remind investors that threatening to tighten monetary policy is easy, but considerably harder to actually do it. Current market probability pricing puts...
Market participants have increasingly fixed their gaze on a small section of the investment stage. Today, investors remain transfixed by artificial intelligence, semiconductor valuations, and every diplomatic rumor drifting from the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, the most consequential development for the American economy may be occurring in plain sight—at the neighborhood...
For much of the past four years, the stock market has resembled a Broadway production performed primarily by the seven actors, known as The Magnificent Seven. These hyperscale titans of silicon and artificial intelligence have been joined on center stage by dozens of supporting characters that support the AI buildout....
Wall Street’s capacity for selective hearing remains one of modern finance’s most reliable constants. Oil remains above $100 a barrel ($105 today). More than 10% of global oil production and export flow has now been disrupted or stranded by the widening Iran conflict and the continuing paralysis of the Strait...
The market has entered that peculiar phase common to great technological revolutions when skepticism still fills television panels while trillions of dollars quietly rearrange themselves beneath the surface of the economy. America is no longer merely participating in an AI boom; it is reorganizing industrial civilization around it. While there...
Markets Climb While Reality Waits A year ago, markets staged a familiar drama. The S&P 500 fell nearly 20% on fears that sweeping tariffs would trigger a global recession—only to reverse sharply and reach new highs once those fears proved overstated. Today, the rhyme is unmistakable. Today, the same instinct...
*{Next Newsletter expected April 27th} Markets, which only days ago wore the expression of a clenched jaw, have relaxed. The announced two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, coupled with the conditional reopening of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has shifted the narrative from scarcity to anticipation....
The political calendar casts an increasingly long shadow over the Trump administration. With the November 2026 mid-term elections looming, President Trump finds himself engaged in a furious, multi-front campaign for the very preservation of his executive authority and, some would argue, his post-presidency tranquility. The stakes are high: a failure...
During Trump’s first term we expected he would ring fence Iran, forcing a military engagement, knowing Iranian leaders would never submit to an enforceable nuclear agreement.A devastating Oil embargo against Tehran was the outcome, but he ran out of time to tighten the noose around Iran’s malicious ambitions before...
