The political calendar casts an increasingly long shadow over the Trump administration. With the November 2026 mid-term elections looming, President Trump finds himself engaged in a furious, multi-front campaign for the very preservation of his executive authority and, some would argue, his post-presidency tranquility. The stakes are high: a failure...
In Washington, the President labors, with the characteristic futility of all chief executives, to persuade the public that prices are falling. This is a Sisyphean task. Affordability is the new buzzword that has triggered endless anti-Trump campaign speeches from the Left and a equally robust response from the Right asserting...
In the great American pastime of deciphering economic signals, policymakers and investors often navigate a fog of uncertainty. On August 22, 2025, Federal Reserve Chair Powell pierced that haze with clarity: “A downward adjustment in the Fed’s benchmark rate may be warranted,”, sending stocks soaring with the Dow leaping over...
For nearly three years, the chattering class has been locked in a Sisyphean debate, toggling between the notions of a soft landing and a recessionary hard landing. For a time, we leaned toward the optimistic prospect of a soft landing; however, recent data suggests that we might already have endured...
During the zenith of the lingering Home Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) inflation in mid-2023, a notable dichotomy materialized: while the Zillow rent inflation benchmark had been descending for a year to less than 5% rate, the official OER was still over 8%. Since then, OER retains a 5.4% tenant inflation...
Stagflation, that delightful economic conundrum where growth grinds to a halt while prices soar, has a rich history. First whispered in the corridors of Britain in 1965, it truly hit its stride in the groovy 1970s stateside. The ’70s, a time when bell-bottoms were in vogue, disco ruled the airwaves,...
The mandate of the Fed is price stability with maximum employment. In the intricate tapestry of economic policy, where every stitch is carefully woven into the fabric of the market, the Federal Reserve finds itself at a pivotal juncture. Employment has been maximized for over 2 years, goods inflation is...
As we have shown before, it’s statistically one of the worst times to buy houses in history given mortgage rates and price appreciation compared to disposable income. Yet, there are no signs of stress in the housing market with historically low levels of delinquencies. When trouble arrives at one’s doorstep...
The benchmark S&P 500 Index just completed its 6th straight week of gains for the first time in 4 years. US Homebuilder stocks are hitting all time records. The German stock market is breaking above its highs again, despite a weak European economy. Oil prices have fallen for 7 straight...
While the Atlanta Fed’s automated model indicates that Q3 is running at a 5.8% GDP growth currently, their chimerical target is correctly highlighting a stronger than expected economy. When all major industries have worker shortages and record low inventories – as we reiterate monthly, it’s hard to see rolling recessions...
