While the world awaits the day when the rapid growth of solar and wind supplant coal and oil, the quickest bridge to the alleged Utopian dream of clean air is Natural Gas. Europe may lead the world in Global Warming Alarmism, but the US is actually making the biggest dent in this effort without…
Since 2001 the New York Federal Reserve has compiled a manufacturing survey of the NY Empire State. It moves in step with most other Fed district surveys and provides a good measure of the industrial sector. After rising from a near recessionary collapse in early 2016 to historic growth and optimism in 2017 and 2018, the Empire…
While we often downplay the importance of the inverted yield curve with short rates above long rates, there are many other warning signs of a slowing economy (GDP), weaker earnings and falling inflation. Bond yields have now fallen back to the moribund economic days of 2016 when the energy recession…
When Trump offers an Olive branch saying “Let’s Make Iran Great Again”, he means “Let’s Make Iran Weak Again”, unless Iran makes a Sisyphean deal bowing to Trump’s wishes. Even as a candidate it was clear this President would not allow Iran to dominate the Middle East, foment terror or advance its nuclear…
Prominent St Louis Fed Chair James Bullard doesn’t like gaming investor expectations. The Federal Reserve has conveyed to the markets that they will not cut rates in June, but hinted the Fed will oblige in late July. Bullard feels that if you see weakness now that warrants lower interest rates,…
The Federal Reserve Bank was created 106 years ago to ensure the functioning of the US financial system with the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate interest rates. These goals are achieved through four mechanisms, but primarily through adjusting various central bank interest rates and the buying and…
While the “No Pain, No Gain” fitness mantra has been somewhat debunked, it may hold true with regards to Trump achieving an all encompassing Trade Agreement with China. Throughout the first 4 months of 2019, confidence in a first half of the year China trade deal soared along with stock investor…
US Treasury debt instruments are deemed the safest in the world with the 10 Year Treasury Note being the most popular. While safety, foreign bond rate competition and inflation expectations are among the most important factors affecting the yields of US Treasuries, Quantitative Easing (QE) is also an influence in this unique era…
Over 2,000 years ago Iran, known then as Persia, was the worlds first super power. Since becoming an anti-western theocratic Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has been in the cross-hairs of conservative leaders in the US. In 2016 President Trump campaigned on vows to defang Iran and has doggedly attacked…
Today’s economy has often been called the Goldilocks economy: it’s not too slow or fast, it’s just about right. Economic Goldilocks today is manifested by persistently low inflation, interest rates and unemployment with simultaneous strong economic and income growth. After a record setting 10 year growth phase, the US is…
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