As the COVID-19 epidemic in China crept into the headlines in early January, the economic uncertainty sent Oil down a modest $10/barrel into the $50’s. When the virus broke out in Europe and the US in late February, the evolving pandemic finally rang alarm bells and crushed Oil consumption forecasts,…
Like a balloon under water, the stock market zoomed higher on unmanned algorithmic trading by 20% this past week on a trifecta of Monetary, Fiscal and Executive actions indicating our economy will not be allowed to fail. The first salvo was fired by the Federal Reserve Bank on March 22nd…
There are lies, damn lies and statistics, as the saying goes. Regarding China, the data implies they have lied about their statistics, yet there is evidence the COVID crisis in China is indeed mostly over as they claim. It’s inconceivable that a country of 1.4 Billion people who waited almost…
High quality stocks are down over 70%, and the broad markets are down by a third with some of the gloomiest oversold sentiment levels in history. With a sharp but short term Recession currently being priced into stocks its tempting to throw all your reserves into stocks while the tide…
When the global pandemic was just beginning to spread outside of China in early February, most expected multiple Federal Funds Rate cuts. However, nobody expected interest rates to yield so quickly to fear from the COVID-19 virus. Despite a massive 150 basis point cut in Fed Funds from 1.5% to…
Governments around the world have mandated a deep global recession! To better nuance such a preposterous sounding statement we would say the US and all Governments fear the COVID-19 virus more than an economic contraction and have determined that the only way to slow this pandemic is to severely restrict…
The world relies upon China as the critical supply chain for the world. They produce 70 to 80% of the worlds air-conditioners and cell phones. They supply tools and materials for factories and pharmaceutical companies around the globe. China has been desperate to control the narrative of their homegrown Covid-19…
Fear of the unknown about the Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a problem. Central Banks can print Trillions and cut interest rates, but they can’t make people fly on planes and they can’t speed up a cure. There is no vaccine likely until the virus is no longer a threat, but global…
The Butterfly effect is often exemplified by the hyperbolic statement that “the flapping of a butterfly’s wings can cause a hurricane on the other side of the world”. While such a statement can never be proven, the concept of small changes in one area causing larger effects far away is…
As the Political season heats up, the battle for voters inspires a steady stream of hyperbole on both sides. President Trump claims this is the best economy ever, while the Left asserts solemnly that most people are struggling. Those in power want you to believe you feel better than ever…
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