The 106 year old Federal Reserve Bank of the US controls monetary policy to influence economic conditions, primarily by moving short term bank borrowing rates and bank reserves. Surveys predict 100% confidence in a Federal Reserve Rate cut on September 18th and high odds of another cut before year end….
It’s well known that bad news garners more attention than good. Record devastation from an approaching hurricane, burning down the rain-forest, financial panic in the investment markets are some of the recent hyper headlines sparking interest. Most of the time the bark is worse than the bite, as reality is…
Future economic expectations are strong drivers of both Oil prices and the Stock Market. A slowing economy portends lower demand for Oil and reduced earnings for stocks. While Oil doesn’t always lead the stock market, they are highly correlated and if Oil breaks below multi-month support it will be a warning…
For almost 1600 years Hong Kong was a part of Chinese dynasties. When more advanced Western countries asserted their dominance over Chinese trade, the Opium Wars were fought. The result was a humiliating defeat of China who ceded Hong Kong to the British crown in 1842. The British allowed China to…
Another Trump overture to Chinese technology giant Huawei to help US companies along with the proposed German and Chinese plans for stimulus have helped the stock market rebound sharply the past 3 days. As much as Trump wants to tighten the screws on China to coerce a trade deal, US and…
The Inverted Yield Curve with short term rates above long rates has been one of the most anticipated over hyped harbingers of doom and gloom in history. For over a year Bearish forecasters sounded the alarm bells of a coming contraction as the Yield inversion approached, even though histrionically this is one of the best…
US stocks continue to outpace world markets despite increasing evidence of a US economic slowdown and weak corporate earnings. Equities are heavily influenced by expectations of future business earnings, yet stocks remain elevated in part due to the high confidence in aggressive rate cutting by our Central Bank that is…
In the final 4 months of 2018 there were over 40 central banks interest rate hikes from around the world despite clear global slowing throughout 2018. In the past 4 months over 40 central bank rate cuts have occurred. More rate cuts are coming, as investment markets are leading the…
It’s been 10 years since cryptographically secure digital assets such as Bitcoin came into existence. After an abysmal 2018, some wonder if Bitcoin’s return to life in 2019 has been due to capital fleeing China to escape the effects of Trump tariffs. The charts are mixed, but lately as Chinese currency…
Petroleum prices have been coiling in recent months. US brinkmanship with Iran adds a premium, while the inexorable rise in US production favors more discounted values. If war breaks out the upper $60’s to upper $70’s is the logical target zone for WTI Crude Oil. Should the war risk be removed, then…
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