Amazon Shrugs

Category: Newsletter, Stocks | No Comments

The Amazon Death Star is the Atlas of this meteoric 9 year old stock market rally. Stock markets have fallen over 10% in about a week, bewildering investors, while Amazon shrugs. Without serious interruptions, Amazon and other tech titans have increasingly dominated their markets. In spite of large competitors such as…

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US Dollar Importance is Fake News

Category: Newsletter, Oil, Speculator, US Economy | No Comments

Currencies appreciate and depreciate for many reasons and either extreme isn’t necessarily good or bad.  Traditional economic theory holds that a cheaper domestic currency relative to other trading partners reduces imports and boosts exports as our widgets become cheaper from the perspective of other countries and inflation pressures rise as…

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Will “Real” Rally Sweeten Sugar

Category: Newsletter, Softs | No Comments

Understandably the commodity oriented Brazilian economy has a close connection between its currency and the crops it grows. Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa and to a lesser extent Soybeans and Orange Juice all have some correlation with the Brazilian economy and its currency – the “Real”.  When commodities in general peaked in…

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Coffee Percolating for 2018 Rally

Category: Newsletter, Speculator | No Comments

Coffee is a market that spends 80% of its time moving sideways or lower. Thus looking for Bull moves higher entails some risk.  Brazilian currency appreciation, La Nina and extreme oversold hedge positions by Money Managers and Large Spec traders all have potential to support a meaningful rally in 2018 above the 130’s…

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Great Time to Expand Business

Category: Newsletter, US Economy | No Comments

Since the 2016 elections NFIB surveys of Small Business Optimism have soared, generating the most dramatic jump in expectations on record. With Corporate Tax cut stimulus effects still ahead and restrained capital spending data, it appears there is room for growing euphoria in 2018. Advisor Perspectives ( does a great job presenting…

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A Merrier Christmas Sales Season

Category: Newsletter, US Economy, US Jobs | No Comments

 Our theme that a new business cycle expansion began in 2016 is easy to see in basic industrial and material sectors we have highlighted in past newsletters.  Less obvious is the persistent consumption trends since the 2008/2009 Great Recession. While consumers have been the backbone of most expansion cycles, they…

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Waiting for the Curve to Invert

Category: Newsletter, US Economy | No Comments

One of the hallmarks of a Bull market is climbing a “Wall of Worry”. Certainly there is plenty of longer term optimism with Consumer and Small Business surveys showing extreme confidence. Yet analysts seem increasingly focused on what might go wrong. In the early days of 2009 – 2012 most…

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