In a moment of unprofound insight lacking sound and fury meaning absolutely nothing to investor expectations, Fed Chief Powell this past week made the most anodyne comments possible that the economy was likely to continue growing. It’s also likely that the Fed has never forecast anything but continued economic growth as…
Has there ever been a Bull market in stocks more connected to the words of one person? Presidential palaver and Trumpian tweets frequently rule day to day market action. In recent months the words coming from the Oval Office have pushed stock prices around in a 10% range repeatedly. In…
“This time is different” are four famous last words considered by famed fund manager John Templeton to be the most costly phrase in history for investors. Prominent economists Reinhart and Rogoff have written extensively that throughout history cycles repeat in a similar fashion with excessive debt creation for economic growth until…
Frequently our reports focus on the big picture of fundamental macroeconomic factors to forecast the economic risk of a contraction or acceleration. Readers know we create a plethora of proxies to determine intrinsic value based upon history, looking at loan defaults, bond spreads, labor trends, credit standards and various surveys of consumers and businesses….
Should US consumers feel consumed by the growing avalanche of negative news? There is an unending tariff war between the worlds two biggest economies, risk of a Hard Brexit impairing the UK, a US manufacturing recession and high odds of a Presidential impeachment. Reflecting this anxiety and uncertainty manifests in optimism among corporate executives…
Astute investors know to shun bank stocks when interest rates fall. They are aware that as the gap between the interest paid on deposits and the return on loans shrink, so do net interest margins. Interest rates have fallen sharply over the past 12 months, with the 10 Year Treasury yield collapsing from 3.2%…
Early stage industrial economies rely on manufacturing for the majority of their value of goods and services produced (GDP). As economies mature with rising living standards, there is a shift to consumption and services providing the vast majority of GDP and employment. One hundred years ago, less than 40% of US…
The 106 year old Federal Reserve Bank of the US controls monetary policy to influence economic conditions, primarily by moving short term bank borrowing rates and bank reserves. Surveys predict 100% confidence in a Federal Reserve Rate cut on September 18th and high odds of another cut before year end….
It’s well known that bad news garners more attention than good. Record devastation from an approaching hurricane, burning down the rain-forest, financial panic in the investment markets are some of the recent hyper headlines sparking interest. Most of the time the bark is worse than the bite, as reality is…
Future economic expectations are strong drivers of both Oil prices and the Stock Market. A slowing economy portends lower demand for Oil and reduced earnings for stocks. While Oil doesn’t always lead the stock market, they are highly correlated and if Oil breaks below multi-month support it will be a warning…
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