The economy is finishing its eleventh year of continuous expansion with virtually full employment, no overheating and excellent levels of consumer spending and optimism. Stocks often move months in advance of earnings and GDP trends and currently appears priced for perfection and better growth ahead. The benchmark SP 500 Index…
Meltups and running stock markets refer to euphoric periods when equity prices rise rapidly and continuously without corrections. It’s a time when stocks can rise on negative news and technical indicators can remain overbought for an extended duration with less volatility. Classic longer term examples of this during our record decade plus…
Every election cycle we hear a crescendo of complaints that the poorest workers, the average Joe, are being left behind while the rich get richer. While historically the income gap between rich and poor rises when the economy grows and narrows when the economy contracts, equality seekers should feel some satisfaction…
On a gloomy Christmas eve one year ago the stock market had completed a 3 month correction into a panic low of more than 20%, equaling its largest decline of the past decade. After a tremendous rally in the first and a fourth quarters of 2019, the pulse of the stock market…
Often when US Presidents can score a single major legislative accomplishment during their tenure it’s enough for the history books. Reagan had the massive Supply Side tax cuts, Clinton passed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Obama’s landslide election mandate gave us Obamacare. Trump made history with his…
Trump has 10 days to decide on approving or vetoing the House legislation on Hong Kong Human Rights Act (HR3289) which just passed in the House. This relatively toothless Bill is meant to embarrass the Chinese and President Trump, declaring China a Human Rights violator and daring the President to…
In a moment of unprofound insight lacking sound and fury meaning absolutely nothing to investor expectations, Fed Chief Powell this past week made the most anodyne comments possible that the economy was likely to continue growing. It’s also likely that the Fed has never forecast anything but continued economic growth as…
Has there ever been a Bull market in stocks more connected to the words of one person? Presidential palaver and Trumpian tweets frequently rule day to day market action. In recent months the words coming from the Oval Office have pushed stock prices around in a 10% range repeatedly. In…
“This time is different” are four famous last words considered by famed fund manager John Templeton to be the most costly phrase in history for investors. Prominent economists Reinhart and Rogoff have written extensively that throughout history cycles repeat in a similar fashion with excessive debt creation for economic growth until…
Frequently our reports focus on the big picture of fundamental macroeconomic factors to forecast the economic risk of a contraction or acceleration. Readers know we create a plethora of proxies to determine intrinsic value based upon history, looking at loan defaults, bond spreads, labor trends, credit standards and various surveys of consumers and businesses….
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