Over 2,000 years ago Iran, known then as Persia, was the worlds first super power. Since becoming an anti-western theocratic Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has been in the cross-hairs of conservative leaders in the US. In 2016 President Trump campaigned on vows to defang Iran and has doggedly attacked…
Today’s economy has often been called the Goldilocks economy: it’s not too slow or fast, it’s just about right. Economic Goldilocks today is manifested by persistently low inflation, interest rates and unemployment with simultaneous strong economic and income growth. After a record setting 10 year growth phase, the US is…
Virtually every week this year confidence of a major trade agreement between the US and China has grown. Just a few days ago Trump surrogates spread rumors that a deal would be announced in a week. Suddenly, a lack of progress on trade deal enforcement terms has triggered Trump to…
Our Favorite Stock list has been consistently populated with growth and momentum stocks such as PayPal, Visa, Splunk, Coupa and Twilio. With some frothy values among this fast growing digital sector and a possible inflection point arriving with good or bad news out of the China and US trade progress…
Most economists underestimated the stellar first quarter GDP of 3.2 percent and increasingly doubt their consensus 2020 recession forecast. While we also assumed a softer first quarter, we have remained Bullish on the economy and still expect no recession the next 2 years as the consensus of economists and CEO’s…
Once upon a time, Iranian rulers controlled almost half of civilization with an increasingly hostile view of progressive Western culture. In modern times, Iran was our close strategic ally for several decades after WWII, garnering the furtive muscle of the CIA to sustain the alliance. Unwittingly, President Eisenhower laid the…
In 2018 the US economy expanded beyond its sustainable production capacity, juiced by massive tax cuts and global preordering ahead of Trump’s tariff hikes. As winter approached we warned that the recession Bears would become more vocal as Europe edged closer to an economic contraction and the Fed induced equity panic coincided with…
Gold first became precious as an Egyptian status symbol about 5,000 years ago and was introduced as a form of money about 2,700 years ago in a country that later became a part of Turkey. While Platinum and Palladium have at times retained a higher value, Gold remains a very…
In 1944 the dominance of the US Dollar was codified in the Bretton Woods agreement establishing it as the reserve currency of the planet. The Dollar was the natural choice since the world needed finite Gold backed currencies to prevent excess inflation and the US held 75 percent of the worlds gold. …
The stock market discounts future expectations. The roaring rally of the past 14 weeks has cast aside recession ruminations and increasingly anticipates an economic rebound coincident with an important trade agreement with China. The benchmark SP 500 Index of stocks has just completed its best quarterly gain since 2009 and the…
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