Corporate balance sheets are in excellent shape, but equally impressive is the Net Worth of the American Household that grows virtually every single quarter year over year. During rare periods when it doesn’t expand, it typically coincides with economic trouble. Historically, more than a 4% decline in sequential quarters is a warning…
Working fewer hours at higher pay sounds like a good thing. It may be better than it sounds. Both high skilled white collar and lower skilled blue collar jobs are requiring less education, offering more perks with less drug testing and above normal wage gains. Listening to politicians one might think…
By early 2008, a few months after a major Bull market peak in stocks, Yellow Flags on the US economy had turned Red across the spectrum. Bond spread risks were spiking, consumer and business confidence surveys collapsing and many indicators were signaling trouble. Today’s purveyors of gloom haven’t given up the ghost…
Inflection points such as the record October stock market peak and the panic low in December are the important milestones we endeavor to navigate successfully through this massive 10 year Bullish wave in US stocks. During the past 7 weeks of surging equity prices we have identified temporary pause points…
US had a public debt of just $75 Million in 1791 and for more than a century afterwards the total public debt averaged just 2.5% of US economic production (GDP). Today’s Government Debt is estimated to be $22 Trillion at roughly 107% of the size of our annual GDP. Historically,…
European dysfunction is making Trump’s economic ‘strategery’ look prescient. We all know that Trade Wars are bad for all economies, yet the US economy accelerated in 2018 while all others have slowed to a crawl as US tariff threats across multiple continents became reality. Perpetually fractured European leadership sat on its hands in…
The China Trade Deal expectations continue to be the most important driver of US stock indices in 2019. Bullish Trump tweets and robust rhetoric from Chinese leaders had buoyed investors more than recent dovish Fed commentary. Having already priced in an accommodative Fed and high odds of a deal with…
Too much credit for the stock market ascent has been assigned to the Powell Put, the assumption that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will stay accommodative until the economy accelerates and stocks reach new highs. A Put option is a hedge against downside risk, a protection vehicle that increases in value…
While a renewed intractable Trade War with China and a US recession would ruin our call for an important bottom in Oil prices in the $40’s, we feel the extreme pessimism among Money Managers in December regarding Texas Tea will provide support for Oil. The implication of this perspective is…
Personal consumption is 70% of the US economy. While much of this is Government controlled (Medicare), untethered to actual consumer choices, it’s a large enough number that many focus upon consumer health and sentiment for clues to economic trends. After reaching a euphoric 18 year high a few months ago, confidence…
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