A Market Waiting on November

———————————————————————————————————————

07-29-26     we remain content to maintain positions in small-caps, cybersecurity, financials, and healthcare, and conserve dry powder for opportunities of greater distinction.

07-28-26  The equity markets remain absorbed by two cardinal preoccupations: the gyrations of oil prices and the more fundamental question of free cash flow. ... As for rate hikes: market-implied odds of a rate increase on the 29th exceed 30 percent; our own assessment places them at zero. … The secular bull market endures. Yet, as we have cautioned, summer is likely to prove a period of consolidation, with the risk of a more pronounced correction rising as autumn approaches.

07-24-26  … Like a metronome, Q2 earnings continue to surpass consensus estimates, anchoring the broader averages near record levels. The technology-heavy Nasdaq has surrendered a salutary 8 percent, while the once-en fuego memory-chip cohort, exemplified by Micron, has endured declines of 35 to 40 percent. Such corrections, far from fatal, often prove restorative. … Our May forecast of a brief SPCX excursion toward $2.7 trillion, followed by a 40 percent retracement testing the $112 level – which was reached today (with a revised risk extending into the $90s), has been realized. … the SPCX corrrection we presumed would take 3 to 6 months to manifest, only took 3 to 6 weeks. 

07-16-26  The summer slog continues with rotation away from the chip sector and into small cap, financials, value …

07-06-26   Semi chip stocks and …direct AI tech stocks still holding the biggest risk. As Q2 earnings season approaches, expectations are for the SP 500 Index EPS to reveal a strong 22% YoY gain (down from +27% for Q1 YoY).  Combine strong earnings with historical seasonality where April and July are often persistent months for higher stock prices, and it favors more upside, even though we are likely in a more volatile sideways trend with rising risk into October. April checked that seasonal box and expectations are for a continuation of the trend in July. Upside potential for 2026 remains near SP 8,000 (which could be delayed until late ’26 to early ’27) with 10% correction risk from any peak until November.

06-25-26     … Once the market begins its next sustained leg higher, we see a measured upside target of S&P 8,000–8,300 in the first half of 2027. In the interim, an 8–11% correction from recent highs remains the primary risk we’re monitoring for the balance of this year.

06-23-26  The market experienced the forecasted June turbulence, with a 3-5% decline materializing as expected. … The June weakness has featured a clear sector rotation out of hyperscaler tech into more cyclical and value areas such as industrials, banks, real estate, biotech, and small caps. … the broader summer action remains choppy. Downside risk is projected to increase toward the end of Q3 and into early Q4 (also a better time to buy SPCX in 90 to 135 zone), with a potential 9-10% correction from recent record highs in the S&P 500. …

06-12-26  Our 5% correction in June outlined last month has arrived and the current rebound arrived a day early thanks to Trump’s claim that a peace deal was very close. … :  SpaceX, priced at a lofty $1.77 trillion and promptly rocketed to a $2.1 trillion close—shattering records for the largest IPO in history by a margin wide enough to accommodate several smaller economies. Thus did the world’s … first trillionaire. : …The Magnificent Seven hyperscaler stocks lagged noticeably. Part of the weakness traced to the prosaic fact that investors were busy reallocating capital into the shiny new SPCX shares. Summer and early autumn, we suspect, will remain a choppy consolidation: sideways motion punctuated by the occasional leap higher.

06-09-26   The first-half-of-June turbulence we anticipated continues to unfold and has already delivered the roughly 5% correction we expected…  For now, we continue to view this summer as more of a trading-range environment. Our elevated cash position provides flexibility, and we expect to deploy capital sparingly and opportunistically during periods of weakness rather than chase strength. The secular forces driving earnings, AI investment, and economic growth remain intact. However, after a remarkable advance, markets may spend the summer catching their breath before deciding where the next sustained move higher begins. Short term tend change higher due around June 12th.

06-07-26   Just over two weeks ago, we suggested that “the impending SpaceX IPO in June may well inaugurate a phase of consolidation and corrective digestion.” Then, on June 2nd—the market’s high-water mark thus far—we noted that “headwinds are likely to emerge in the first half of June” and that stocks “may be entering a topping process through June.” …  Our larger concern lies beyond the summer and closer to November. A shift in Congressional control away from the GOP could increase the likelihood of regulatory efforts aimed at slowing, restricting, or heavily overseeing the AI infrastructure buildout. Whether justified or not, investors tend to discount uncertainty long before they discount earnings. Even the perception of a less favorable policy environment could temporarily push capital to the sidelines and produce a correction deeper than the routine 3% to 5% pullback we  expect starting in June.

06-02-26   …  Our secular bullish outlook remains firmly intact. That said, several tactical signals suggest the easy phase of this years advance may be entering a topping process through June:

• We could still push toward 7,700–8,000 on the S&P 500, but headwinds are likely to emerge in the first half of June and again into September. A post-earnings-season pause would be well-deserved.  Looking Ahead: Summer and Fall Risks: temporary valuation headwind is also brewing from the massive $4–5 trillion in market value expected to be unlocked by the Big 3 IPOs (including SpaceX). While the long-term impact should be positive, the immediate digestion of that supply could create choppiness this summer and fall. Of greater structural importance are the 2026 midterm elections. A Democratic House, Senate, or both would likely stall new pro-growth legislation. More critically, a divided Congress could revive calls to slow, halt, or heavily regulate AI data-center expansion—potentially spooking investors in the sector.

05-25-26   … the principal question restraining equities was never earnings, inflation, or even valuation. It was whether the Persian Gulf would again become a toll road for chaos.  …  A SpaceX-inspired melt-up could carry stocks higher into June before inviting a midsummer pullback into July. From there, a broader and more exhausting top may emerge around September or Q4 with the Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs, after which investors are likely to migrate toward cash as the midterm elections approach — particularly if the prospect grows that the GOP could surrender control of the House. 

05-21-26  … Nvidia has climbed 32% after posting its fourteenth consecutive quarterly earnings beat, while memory-chip maker Micron has more than doubled—yet both appear, remarkably, among the more reasonably valued titans in the AI cosmos. … Yet the impending Spacex IPO in June may well inaugurate a phase of consolidation and corrective digestion. … With only about 4% of Spacex shares initially available to the public, the stock could experience a brief, euphoric pop upon its Nasdaq debut, carrying the valuation from an opening range near $1.75–2 trillion to perhaps $2.2–2.7 trillion with too many dollars chasing too few shares along with extreme valuation premium. Institutional lockups will then expire in the weeks and months ensuing, likely precipitating a 20–40% retreat from whatever June peak materializes.   : … A genuine resolution in the Middle East, the restoration of open sea lanes … could serve as a healing salve. In that happier scenario, the market would find a new leg upward, with the S&P 500 pressing toward 8,000 or beyond by year-end, which is our current expectation.

05-13-26   …  It is less a broad Bull market than a semiconductor dictatorship. A pause that refreshes would be healthy after such a relentless advance, but the trend remains upward and continues to project a near-term test of the 7500–7530 zone on the cash S&P 500 Index, while 2026 peak  SP targets are moving above 8,000. In this market, momentum still overwhelms caution, even as oil tankers idle and inflation fires burn hotter. 

05-04-26   … broader bull market thesis remains intact. Even amid rising energy costs and geopolitical strain, this appears less like an ending—and more like an interruption.

04-25-26   A year ago, equities fell nearly 20% on the specter of sweeping Trump tariffs and a looming global recession—only to surge to record highs weeks later when reality proved more restrained than rhetoric. This year, the script feels familiar. Markets sold off on fears that an escalating Iran conflict would propel oil beyond $150 per barrel and tip the global economy into recession. Yet, once again, the mere hint of restraint—a ceasefire and the persistent rumor of a broader peace—has carried stocks back to record highs this April. And yet, the facts remain stubborn. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. … As advised on the 9th, our portfolio jumped to fully invested by the 15th… For now, however, the market’s outlook is bullish, buoyed by record earnings and the relentless tailwind of AI-driven investment. Markets continue to prefer the promise of peace over the discipline of caution—until reality insists otherwise. SP 7250 – 7350 is the current resistance near term …

04-09-26   Iran continues to keep the Strait of Hormuz and over 200 tankers shut down….While Iran can’t be trusted, … our equity exposure at 73% long can be increased to 83% if the SP 500 Index rises above 6900 and to 100% at SP 7000. 

04-07-26  The announcement of a two-week ceasefire—and reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—triggered a violent unwind of the war premium. Oil, which had been trading as if scarcity were imminent, abruptly remembered abundance. U.S. crude plunged over $20 —one of the sharpest single-day reversals in recent memory. Equities, by contrast, rallied into the close and overnight, less on what is, and more on what might be: a normalization of energy flows, a cooling of inflation fears, and the possibility that the geopolitical storm may pass without becoming a cat 5 hurricane.
Markets have transitioned—from pricing catastrophe to pricing contingency. The off-ramp to this conflict remains foggy, but … our hope for a positive resolution remains intact, even if a bit unstable. 

04-03-26    The market continues to look past war risk and toward a policy-driven rebound, showing a stubborn refusal to panic. Donald Trump’s deliberately exaggerated optimistic messaging throughout the war has quelled investor panic attacks. …. Stocks are searching for a bottom … 

03-27-26   Ironically, it was late March into early April of 2025 when the stock market first panicked over extreme Trump tariff threats and a looming recession. All was forgiven days later—but an eerily similar script is unfolding this year, now centered on Trump’s war with Iran and another early-April deadline. … The SP 500 is now down 10%.  Our elevated cash position (55%) over the past month, paired with growing inverse ETF exposure, is proving timely. 

03-26-26    Oversold conditions are emerging—the point at which disciplined investors begin, cautiously, to re-engage. 

03-12-26   Despite optimistic messaging from the White House suggesting the war is largely contained, the effort to restart …  flows still lacks a clear endgame. … Our defensive positioning over the past month remains unchanged: elevated cash levels and selective inverse ETF hedges … The longer the Strait remains effectively closed, the more storage facilities in exporting nations have little choice but to shut production … amplifying the supply shock.

Iran itself appears unlikely to mine the waters so long as: (1) The United States allows Iranian oil tankers to continue exporting crude. (2) Iranian export terminals remain untouched by direct strikes.  … Once tanker traffic resumes and energy flows normalize, a powerful relief rally will follow. How low might the SP go before the rally — 8 to 12% would be normal & an area we discussed long before the war began.

02-23-26   Our decision to raise cash several weeks ago was driven in part by complacent markets, and the repeated testing of SP 6,750–6,800 support zone (roughly a 2.5–3% correction band). A break below that level risks triggering a reflexive rush for the exits, reminiscent of the “Liberation Day” tariff shock that briefly rattled markets earlier. 

02-11-26  Capital is not only rotating away from hyperscalers, but companies perceived to be vulnerable to AI disruption — particularly software & more recently, the banking complex. … the tailwinds of AI & do not reflect economic deterioration, rather, repricing. Investors are reassessing which business models benefit from AI & which risk margin compression as automation accelerates.  SP  Sup’ = 6750-6800 —> below that = test<6600. Technically and seasonally, we still anticipate some degree of topping behavior during February, with the possibility of selling pressure extending into March. 

02-03-26   We had expected a final peak in the 1st half of February before the stampede of Bulls stumble below short term support in the 6700’s — thus far, Feb’ 2nd was a record high close in the SP 500 Index. This 6700’s support area we suspect will be tested in late Feb’ (or erly March?) & if broken it will take a lengthy bottoming process before the Bulls regain their footing to run to record peaks once again. Late March for now remains the highest odds for any correction. 

01-23-26  Seasonality called for a 1st half of January rally with some back and forth the 2nd half, followed by one last spurt into the 1st half of February before a more impactful 5 to 10% decline into March

01-15-26   Value and small cap continue to lead over large cap growth & AI stocks. This rotation began in Q4 & should continue over the next few months. Large cap tech revenue & profits will keep growing rapidly, but multiples will struggle as investors now favor cash flow, lower debt leverage & AI implementation for profit vs scale. : Late Q1 correction low expected after Feb’ top. High conviction surrounds the short-term overbought aerospace sector (BA/TDG/AIR/HWM).

01-07-26  We expect any market decline to rebound quickly prior to 1st half of February peak prior to a larger bout of Sellng into a March Low. 

01-04-26  Q1 is due for some topping action in the Jan’-Feb’ timeframe, but the market should see gains for the year. 

01-01-26   Another double digit year in the books with the benchmark SP ahead 17%. The path of least resistance for the stock market remains higher. Private and Federal stimulus and M&A deals should provide confidence in buying any deep corrections in 2026..

2025 total returns: ExecSpec = +29%

12-23-25    SP 500 Index record on 10-29-25 of 6920 is being tested on the eve of Christmas eve today touching 6906. …A reason for some caution is that:  a huge consensus expects 7,000+ SP 500 Index within days/weeks with mid to upper 7,000’s consensus forecast for 2026 along with another year of 10+% earnings growth. That would be a very rare 4th year in a row with double digit gains in stock indices and earnings if the consensus 2026 forecast occurs. Money managers are highly levered for the upside, near record extreme Bullishness. ExecSpec continues to run with the herd, but we know that such uniform Bullishness with major indices within a whisker of all time highs typically means that the market is vulnerable to bad news and profit taking. The main good news from a sentiment perspective is that non-professional  – small – investors remain neutral and money market funds – cash on the sidelines – continue to rise, now at $7.66 trillion (up $800 billion in 2025). Themes for 2026 are for broadening into small/mid-cap space – RSP/SPSM. Aerospace (Boeing), Cyber (Crowdstrike), Financials (Schwab, COF & bulge banks), Retail (AMZN, DKS), AI (GEV, NVDA, GOOGL) Health (LLY, XLV) are among those favored .

12-05-25   After a polite November dip of 5–9% in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the major averages have staged another of their trademark V-shaped recoveries … . Any sharp dip on news should be used for adding to positions in BA, AMZN, AVGO, CRWD and other favorites. 

11-19-25  … we expected weakness in November, due in large part to investors shunning the massive debt financed AI growth where expenditures are forecast to exceed revenue growth for a lengthy period – perhpas years. 

11-14-25  … We suspect there is downside risk for as much as 8% from record highs in the SP 500 within a couple days either side of Thanksgiving.  1st Bitcoin support arrives near 90,000 then upper 70’s to low 80s.

11-05-25  Keep some Buying powder for potential November dip as investors increasingly sell based upon Mega tech borrowing excess for futre AI expansion. 

10-23-25   Stocks keep working higher on expectations of (1) Fed rate cut Oct’ 29th (2) positive outcome of Xi & Trump meeting Oct’ 30th. Positive China trade outcome should trigger another leg lower in  rare earth.  

10-19-25   Rocketing rare earth stocks have lost altitude as expected, down 20% from recent parabolic peaks. A 50% correction will trigger new buying in MP. 

09-30-25   Evidence suggests equity markets typically exhibit neutral-to-positive performance during Gov’ shutdown, though a sustained impasse into November may trigger brief downside pressure. 

08-30-25    Our outlook is that the Supremes are likely to rule against Trump’s national emergency tariff authority in early November. This sets the stage for either an immediate market correction at that time. To navigate this uncertainty, portfolio cash holdings have risen to 29%. As it stands, the expected correction in the S&P 500 through early October appears limited. 

08-24-25  Powell signaled openness to a September rate cut at Jackson Hole, citing labor softness. Stocks quickly erased a 2% pullback. Seasonal tailwinds look favorable this week, market risk deferred until late September.

08-06-25   August tends to favor gains into mid month … : Rare Earth led by MP Materials getting a boost at Trump Press Conference with Apple’s Tim Cook announcing a boost to $600 billion US investment over 4 years & partnership to buy MP’s rare earth …

07-24-25  … Early Q2 earning reports indicate that the massive AI spend is only speeding up. Long live AI as it increasingly dominates the economic landscape & market performance. In … the stock market … (SPX) dances toward a lofty 6,400 target—perhaps within the week. The political Left is providing a Wall of Worry for stocks to climb. This rally, neither frenetic nor overbought, reflects a market buoyed but cautious optimism. August 1 looms as a potential inflection point. … The Federal Appeals Court’s pending ruling on Trump’s invocation of national emergency powers to impose tariffs hangs like a sword over the head of this tech powered rally in August or September(?)… a rebuke could unleash a significant downdraft. Legal consensus is for a rejection. Viewing the broader tapestry, the market’s resilience stems from robust corporate earnings & forward guidance. For now, the bulls hold sway, but the wise will keep their gaze fixed on August’s horizon, where clarity—or chaos—awaits. 

07-10-25  Investors, with an impressive stoicism, ascend the perennial “wall of worry,” undeterred by the specter of escalating tariffs. The rally, sparked by April’s tariff reprieve, persists with a vigor that mocks the Cassandras of correction. Subtle harbingers of an overbought market flicker—technical indicators whispering caution in late July—but these are drowned out by the triumphal march of NVIDIA, now crowned with another world beating valuation exceeding $4 trillion. Microsoft will not be far behind. S&P 500 Index continues on course for a medium term July peak with the upper 6300s as the next resitance zone.

07-02-25   .. there are NO signs technically for a top –  Stay tuned & long.

06-29-25   There is no pending news event or overbought technical indicators that screams Sell yet, so the path is upward until there is a technical or fundamental shift. 

06-18-25   Artificial intelligence remains the belle of the speculative ball. Financials, often dismissed too early in late cycles, are showing admirable durability. And energy, particularly in its strategic and materials-linked forms, holds its ground as quietly indispensable. We expect a market peak late July, followed by a bracing scare into September. But for now, the indicators reflect something rarer than fear or euphoria: a calm without conviction.

06-10-25     Any corrections remain modest—confined to a few percentage points—expect record highs north of 6147 between late June and late July. The bulls are not yet ready to relinquish their dominance.

05-16-25  As the S&P traded in the 5600s we raised our target to 5890 by early June …  reducing cash – as we had too many confirmations that this rebound had little downside risk until at least July or August when the tariff threat pauses expire. … thus far, the economy (jobs & spending) is healthy. Market pullbacks are likely to be small (2 to 5%) & should be used to add stocks. Watchlist stocks on corrections = BA, COF, KBWB, TOST, CSCO, NVDA, PANW, IBIT, BROS, UBER

05-02-25   … any retrenchment will be modest. We foresee the index (SPX) climbing toward 5720 to 5890 by early June. Our proprietary composite of bullish indicators … intimates the dawn of a new bull market. … the late Marty Zweig’s Breadth Thrust—a gauge of market vigor—flashed bullish on April 29, 2025, auguring substantial gains, perhaps a 16% rise by October = 6450. … If major trade deals materialize by the end of summer, investors will continue looking past a possible slowdown in GDP & lower revision to company earnings per share = new market highs.

04-30-25  Today’s GDP contraction report was not deemed a contraction as stocks sold off hard in the morning & recouped all losses by the close. More gains ahead, possibly SPX 5670 – 5700 by end of week.

04-09-25  The 15% market drop in the three days following Trump’s Liberation Day statement has been erased the next week, thanks to a single-day jump of 9% (peaking at 13% intraday). This marks the largest one-day gain since 2008, sparked by news that Trump is holding off on tariffs for 90 days …  The market faces resistance … in the $SPX range of 5620 to 5760. 

04-04-25  … A rebound, possibly robust, is likely as the S&P 500 nears the abyss of a 20% correction, hovering just below 5,000. …  S&P’s 4,900-5,000 ledge offers a perch for the intrepid to BUY!

03-18-25   a short-term rally is likely to begin in early April 

03-11-25  … a short-term market low is near. Our ideal SP (SPX) 5400 – 5450 area of support for March continues to draw closer (ESM 5450 – 5540). With more tariffs arriving April and, the uncertainty clouds will contain rallies well below their sunny February highs. 

03-10-25    SP 500 Index … target for strong short-term support at 10 to 11% off record highs. While there should be an equity rally kicking in over the next couple of weeks, we expect it to be contained in a larger trading range, as long as Trump trade uncertainty continues to escalate.

02-20-25   Major market valuations, trader put/call ratios, seasonality and even Money Manager exposure all indicate there is risk of a downside scare. With our 20% cash exposure we will wait for extreme oversold signals before adding stocks.  SP 500 Index does have risk toward 6 to 10+%. 

01-15-25   … the Jan’ correction phase is complete. Market indicators have moved to moderately oversold conditions, though not reaching deeply oversold levels that would signal a high-confidence entry point. 

01-10-25  … Technicals & sentiment are not yet at oversold extremes to warrant aggressive new buying.

2024 = 32.4% gain in KDelta portfolio

12-21-24   Last week we sent a report showing that our composite indicators had finally moved back to overbought zone where a correction would be normal. … The ensuing decline was just 5% – meeting our forecasted target for SP 500 Index. 

12-06-24  The relentless Bull market has finally generated several of the overbought indications that typically precede a multi-week correction. Due to the Trump put we don’t expect more than 5% downside until after Jan’ 20th.  Should the January potential be achieved, then an extended 10+% correction is likely to ensue. 

11-24-24  Big picture remains positive for stocks.  Continued spurt up into Turkey Day for most stocks. 

11-22-24 Trump Trade continues: Small Capo Value (VBR), Cyber  Security (CIBR) Data Ceneter/Power/AI related stocks/indices and of course Bitcoin (IBIT) are the standouts still.  

11-08-24   Our interview on election day said the odds favored a Red Wave Sweep & it arrived with unrelenting fireworks with equities going parabolic. While almost half the country is seeking therapy, we expect this rally to continue through year end – & through inauguration.  Trump trades are Financials, Industrial, energy infrastructure and Bitcoin, while fading clean energy & any company producing in China. Our next target level that may be hit this month is the 6050 – 6090 zone. While we are there now! 

10-31-24   Market has priced in a tight election with split political power among House, Senate and President. Trend & current battelground polls slightly favor GOP Senate & Trump win, increasing the odds for a surprisng Red Wave sweep that should trigger … higher stock prices.  (Red Wave Sweep is highest odds)

10-04-24   Our message has been consistent since late August: to expect strength in September in contrast to the consensus

09-17-24    We suspect by month end prices will be closer to Sept’ high than the low. 

09-06-24  Stocks peaked just under record highs at the end of August as expected & the over-hyped September correction has begun with a 5% decline the 1st week. We remain skeptical that a painful correction is due for late September or early October with the negative consensus – record highs instead. 

08-28-24   Perhpas too many analysts favor a down September, thus without overbought indicators from our tool box we would allow for a down 1st week, but sideways to higher prices for most of September. 

08-16-24  Yen carry trade unwind that panicked money managers into Aug’ 5th has now mostly rewound as >80% of the 10% correction in the SP 500 Index has been recovered.  New highs >5650, into month end.Traders can buy the small dips until then. 

08-09-24  Panic drop in stocks as Bank of Japan announced a rare rate hike. This created an unwinding of carry trade – borrowing Yen at low rates & converting to Dollars in high return US mega caps. As this unwound, with spike in the Yen, stocks finished off  a significant correction with the SP 500 down 10%, the Nasdaq down 16% and mega cap 7 stocks down over 25%. On the day of the Low to date – August 5th – we sent out a report advising some buying as stocks were about to rebound.  Corrective action may resume by September.  Our Q2 call was for a corrective phase starting in July or August that could carry into September before the Bull market begins to reconstitute its uptrend.

07-28-24  The seasonals will begin to blow a headwind for stocks as we move into next week and out to September with some seasonal strength into mid-August. 

07-16-24   In a dramatic reversal over the past 4 days, the extremely dominant Mega cap tech stocks have stalled while the late to the party small cap stocks (Russell 2000) rocketed higher by 10%. Seasonal highs are due in July or August ideally with the best odds of a pullback low due in September.

07-01-24  Most Bullish equity seasonal of the year is July – especially the 1st two weeks – but is there too much optimism?

06-27-24   Indicators stuck in neutral. Not the setup for a normal top of importance. Plenty of gas in the tank for most stocks. Seasonal top still due in July. 

05-19-24   New record highs yet fear gauges are neutral.  May 22nd NVDA earnings: any NVDA decline will be bought fast 

05-02-24    The 1st half of May is supposed to be weaker seasonally, but don’t sell the rallies – just buy the dips.

03-29-24   This type of market – like 2017 – is unlikely to correct until NVDA ready to fall lower for longer than most expect.

01-31-24  Seasonal pattern indicates there is risk of Bond price topping soon.

2023 KDelta ExecSpec Results=+19.6%

11-14-23   Peak interest rate hiking = new Bond Bull market. Bullish for stocks. 

11-07-23   7 straight days higher in stocks is normally good omen longer term. Higher prices due until early December. 

10-24-23    Important technical indicators are now most oversold since Oct’ 2022 Bear market lows. 

09-21-23  Our forecasted rebound top arrived as forecast on Sept 14th/15th at 4410’s SPX. August-September correction continues as forecast with the first potential timing for a low due next week ~ 29th.  Q4 rally due to begin in October. 

09-13-23   Sept’ seasonal peak in SP 500 due 14th-19th. Back under SP 4500 hints that Sept downtrend has resumed.

09-02-23   Weakness due early next week & can be bought for potential gains into mid-Sept.

08-30-23  August 25th low projection in our last newsletter chart did coincide with the August low… seasonal upside could last into mid Sept before more pronounced weakness returns 2nd half Sept. Still a Bull market. 

08-16-23   Spot SP 500 Index prior low of 4328 is the next target. From August 18th … we expect Buy signal & plan to increase stock positions. Some risk into October  

08-06-23  Lows for investors are due late August/early September and again in October. Shorter term traders may expect … SP… corrective action below 4400 SP 

07-28-23   Ideally stocks were due to peak today, but further testing of the low 4600’s September SP is possible into an inflection date on or before August 1st.

07-19-23   In April, when we proposed a maximum target zone in the 4600’s for a Summer rally high …  Seasonality favors major indices topping over the next few weeks: ideally near July 19th/21st, 28th or even early August. We expect a decent 5 to 8% correction 

06-16-23    The A.I. Nvidia tech Bull market continues to widen the spread between average stocks that are up 4% and a dozen or so large tech companies up 30 to 100+% that outweigh most stock indices. The way these panics work usually is the sudden price surges will keep a growing layers of pent-up buying power under the market to buy the dips. We expect Apple to test the $3 trillion valuation in the low 190’s& NVDA the 465 – 480 zone.   

05-30-23   NVDA rally over AI exploded last week, furthering the extremely narrow leadership with mega cap tech vs the rest of the market. NVDA can keep tech in rally mode as pent up Buyer demand awaits a pullback. Debt ceiling should pass officially next week.  

04-28-23     Apr 28th as well as May 3rd/4th were ideal dates for short term peak in an ongoing uptrend. There is still a decline due into 2nd week of May. 

04-19-23   Low due near May 12th

04-11-23    We have targeted an initial top in late April.  Pullback low due by mid-May.

03-31-23    Rally into at least mid-April. SP 500 Index – headed for our primary targets of testing 4200 on the cash SP (SPX) .

03-21-23   Market resilience has been strong during a month of bad news. Market sell-offs are likely to be bought at some point this week as we move into a more positive seasonality over the next 3 to 4 weeks. We will Buy dips in March as long as recent lows hold.

03-16-23   In just over a week the stock market has endured a Hawkish Fed adamant about the need to raise rates higher than expected, and higher than expected inflation data, a US banking crisis as well as a European banking panic, yet indices are holding up.  Banks are recovering and investors more enthused after the Fed injected a whopping $300 Billion into the financial system this past week. … mid to late April trading top expected.

03-02-23 Mid Feb’ forecasted peak to an expected March low has just tested our first support in SP 3930’s. Lows in March are ideally 13-17th/ & 23rd.  If lows hold the 3800’s, then rally to mid to late April could be strong. GDP cycle lows have always been Q4 this year through Q2 2024 in our model : SP 500 Index upper 3800’s = support.

02-21-23  Final closing high was on Feb’ 15th as forecast with strong correction potential still into mid-March. Downside to 3930’s 1st target  

02-07-23  Expected rally to mid Feb materialized quicker than expected. Added stocks to portfolio on Fed conference today for an expected final run to Feb 15th peak before increasingly serious correction evolves into a March low. 

01-30-23  Final upside SP target = upper 4100’s to just over 4200 (*High was 4208)

01-26-23   Short term January top arrived mid Jan’, but Primary trend remains higher into mid-February. The big test is expected pullback culminating in March. 

01-18-23  SP topped on 18th as forecast in our target zone above 4000.  We may have another leg higher into mid-Feb before a more serious market decline begins

01-11-23   SP 500 Index is now in our forecasted time & price window we have frequently shared, upper 3900’s to 4060. 

01-06-23  The 2+ week trading range appears to be breaking out higher as forecast.  SP 500 Index still has ideal target near 4000 with the time window being Jan’ 12th & 18th.

01-02-23  We remain with bias to upside in the stock market into mid-January

Final ExecSpec portfolio results 2022: Profit $3,700= +3.7%  

12-23-22  Growing consensus for new lows will be a contrarian element that could be a factor if new lows can be avoided through Q1. : Lower Dollar in January should be supportive of Ags, Metals and Oil.

12-15-22   Critical support of 3800 SP.  Short term low due 21st, where we will expect short term oversold readings & a bounce. 

12-14-22   Next week should see downward pressure into Christmas.  We are raising cash here. 

12-08-22  Short term oversold readings have created a brief rally phase into early next week on seasonality and China opening hopes.

12-02-22   Our topping phase has begun for December with pullback to the 3900’s next week.

11-25-22  Stocks getting frothy. Ideal timing Dec 2nd top, but overbought on any new highs short term. Too many expecting strong December. 

11-01-22  Rally into the election & then after CPI report on 10th.

10-31-22  The SP rallied to forecasted resistance for October in the upper 3800’s. Rally should have further to go (3950-4150)   Raising cash & hedging longs becomes more advisable as we move through November > 4000 SP. 

10-18-22    Upper 3800’s SP is ideal October resistance. Pullback risk in the final week of October around the 28th. Rally phase into election day & a November climax if GOP takes Congress followed by Sell the News profit taking. 

10-11-22   We still lean to the Bullish side as we retest the June 2022 lows. RSI or Relative Strength Index is showing positive divergence. High Yield Bonds hint a turn up in stocks by 13th. 

10-09-22  The current deep retracement may opens up potential for new lows. Technical condition is still positive if 3500 SP holds. 

09-30-22    Many indicators reached oversold conditions just as we enter the heart of our 2 week window ending Oct’ 13th where a medium term low similar to June may be occurring. With indices closing “on” their lows of the year today it would be rational to expect further slippage into the 3570 zone basis SP 500 Index. Option sentiment favors an important 3rd Qtr LOW this week – possibly Oct’ 3rd. 

09-25-22   SP 3400 to low 3600’s remain the range to watch for an important Low. Further weakness ending near Oct 10th in 3500’s to 3630 range.  Oct low sets up rally into November before sharp downside risk rises.: Oil heading to expected targets in low to mid $70’s – then a rally phase 

09-13-22    October could be a strong period to increase equity exposure if testing lower 3600’s SP or lower.

09-07-22  Short term Bullish signals & seasonal favor rally into low to mid 4100’s SP, but weaker prices expected by late Sept’

08-31-22  Oversold and due for a relief rally soon, yet we still expect more downside into late Sept to early November for a major low.

08-10-22    stock sentiment is quickly moving to overbought levels.

07-29-22  SP top due in the  4200’s (200 day moving avg near 4320).  We are using this rally to exit some positions .

07-27-22   We achieved our minimum target over 4000 on SP 500 Index & see potential for a  bit over 4100 with final top due in August. 

07-21-22   another rally > 4100 into an important August peak. 

07-19-22     Rally into August appears to have been confirmed today

07-15-22   we have a positive news response syndrome supporting the current summer relief rally.  SP between 4,000 and 4,300 in August is target range before  prices fall once again. 

06-30-22  Thus far, the stock market bottomed near mid June as expected, with extreme oversold signals. Seasonal trends favor further gains through mid July or later, but today’s low in the 3740’s basis the SP 500 Index needs to hold. Below 3700 implies that new lows under 3639 are likely with a target window between 3300 – 3450.  Once the market expects an eventual pause in Fed rate hikes – due to a sharp drop in inflation – then a much stronger equity rally will ensue. One of the early clues will be Oil. Once WTI Crude falls under the $87 to $91 support window, we can begin to expect new CPI reports that will please the market & buoy the Fed.

06-25-22  Stock market just rallied 7 to 10% on the major indcies from intraday lows on the 17th – yet still 18 to 27% lower from peak. Some of the inflation rollover we see in June is coming from China’s lockdown which hurts Copper. US and Chinese stocks should have more upside into late July or August, where we intend to raise cash (& hedge with inverse ETF’s for traders). Short term resistance this week is the low 3900’s and support near 3700 basis SP 500 Index.

06-20-22  .75% hike hike & market repriced lower. The Lows for the month have likely arrived at 3639 basis Sept’ SP 500 Index on the 16th and 17th, right on our 3640 support level of our previous update below. 

06-15-22  Fed rate hike decision day. We expect .75%. Market is due for a strong bounce. Ideal SP risk range is now 3640 to 4050

06-08-22   The stock market rebound from extreme oversold levels has stalled until the CPI report on 10th. If  CPI is> 8.3%,  stocks will sell off sharply & interest rates will hit new highs. A Low could extend into the 15th-17th if the CPI is over 8.3% 

06-05-22    Short term peak this week – low near 10th-13th.  SP 500 index > 4200 will be a zone to raise cash.

05-26-22   Rally phase due to peak around June 8th with more highs near 20 & 27th. 

05-19-23  SP 500 Index Low due May 19th to 23rd. While a rally is due, we still expect more pain ahead as fears shift from rate hikes to Recession. Use rallies to raise cash and stay away from Tech. Energy and Ags are due to peak and pull back, but sharp drops can be bought.

05-06-22  The April outlook for new lows after SP 4354 breaks did occur. When China is close to exiting its Recession caused by lockdowns then stocks will rebound sharply. Past history indicates a strong correlation with US GDP slowing a few months after China enters a strong contraction in its manufacturing and service sectors. Over the Short term we are looking for a low in Stocks & Bond prices around May 10th to 13th. 

04-01-22   SP 4300 to 4450 is the swing support zone that needs to hold for Bulls or else new lows <4000 will follow.

03-08-22   We are in 2 week window of ideal seasonal Low with high cash.

02-28-22  For now we stick with the Q1 forecast of bottoming action into the 2nd or 3rd week of March followed by an uptrend into April. 

02-21-22  Oil funadamentals globally remain quite Bullish. Our Q1 forecast regradless of Russia was for a January Stock correction, modest February rally and climax new low in 2nd or 3rd week of March.  A negative micro-economic sign would be if Apple trade below 159.20.

02-13-22   Junk Bonds warn of a stock market vulnerable to reaching new multi-month lows this quarter. Expect new lows by March. 

02-05-22  We are in a trading range that requires either a new oversold reading from new market lows (3800s-3900s) to Buy more or a breakout into the mid 4600s, which would likely indicate that the correction threat has passsed. We still favor a sideways to lower market with the low 4600s providing key resistance while we await March rate hikes. 

01-30-22  Oversold indicators during our first time and price window for a potential bottom favor at least a modest rally into the 4500s SP over the next 1 to 3 weeks, although risk of a further down wave prior to March Fed rate hikes is likely.

01-24-22  With the SP touching 12% lower, we needed this panic selling for a short term bottom. This is the time to finally use cash to invest in Energy, Financial, Travel & Industrial.

01-21-22    Our indicators say it requires a further panic to generate a zone to invest a large portion of excess cash. The market may have to wait until at least March when the 1st in a series of Fed rate hikes is expected to begin. A momentum low in stock indices should be near, but that will likley set up a  ~3 to 6% trading range well below the old highs.

01-20-22  Lower prices are likely over the next week...  

01-06-22  Any new test under SP 4660 quickly increases the odds of a further washout – perhpas as low as the 200 dma near 4400 on the SP 500 Index 

01-02-22  Stock indices rallied during the final week of 2021 on Seasonality trend, but due to roll over by mid-month. 

12-23-21  Stocks & Oil remain in sync on the upside breaking out to multi-week highs as the market could not ignore the Santa Claus sentiment. We expect new records in SP next week, then a short term pullback to reset, before pushing into the 4900s in January. Oil appears headed for $80.

12-21-21 Investors looked past the slower economic outlook to send stocks surging once again. The market has its sights set upon record highs over the next week.  A test of SP 4740 is possible within a few days & 4800s by early January. Max projections for January Seasonal top are in the upper 4900s at which point a crescendo of talk will focus upon 5000 in the SP 500 Index (500 SPY). Oil remains in sync with stocks with $73 likely within days & 78+ in January. 

12-15-21    Panic Bull mode?  Stocks fell to our key 4490’s support on 14th as forecasted.  Seasonal lows in stocks are due now (14th/15th).  : 

12-10-21   While Seasonal patterns favor some sideways to weaker price action between the 13th and Christmas (14th ideally), the trend to a record high over SP 4800 in January & possibly 5000 in Q1 is still possible. 4580 basis SP 500 Index is now the key short term support zone to keep this uptrend going.  Caution flags may wave stronger long term as we move into later part of 1st or 2nd quarter with a Fed Bond taper climax, but for now, new record highs are expected & dips toward 4600 or lower below there, can be bought. Oil in mid to upper $60 is major Support. 

12-08-21  Stocks & Oil should have short term peak soon with one last dip due before Christmas. Then record highs into January are due. 

12-05-21  SP hit support in 4490s just below 5% and 50 day moving avg’ supports as newsleter forecasted. 

12-01-21  Short term panic mode is back on with 4460 to 4500 as next target zone. Oil may be heading back towards our lower end of  December target.

11-28-21  Resistance on 29th is SP 4650s.  Morning of 29th is all about reversals of the huge Friday collpase, due to Covid variant fears being overhyped Friday. It will take a couple weeks to understand vaccine effectiveness and variant lethality, but Cases & Fear are likely to rise.

11-22-21  We were looking for a 4% drop into this week before a run higher. Today’s sharp reversal lower led by Tech triggered by rising rates & Cvoid worries could be the pullback we had expected. Hold off on Buying the dip until there is a further decline as we are down less than 2% thus far. : Currencies, Gold and Oil are due for short term low late this week. 

11-17-21  After 2 weeks of sideways price action within 2% of record highs, a setup for any 2 day dip could be short term buying opportunity for new highs into early December. : Oil is falling as recent Newsletter forecasted, setting up a Buy of PXD & USO when Jan’ Oil in $72 to $76/barrel zone. : 

11-11-21   The high we forecasted for Nov’ 8th arrived as expected leading to a mild correction so far of 2% – the minimum pullback we said to expect.  Stock market weakness may continue over the next week before one more upward thrust in anticipation of a Christmas.  Strong short term SP 500 support is in the upper 4500s to low 4600s with Dec’ target 4820s, assuming support holds. 

11-05-21  We expect a short term top in Stocks around the 8th with a high for the year near early December above 4800 on SP 500 Index. Correction risk is 2 to4% into the 12th to 19th time frame for investors to add to longs.

11-04-21   As our updates have expected, new record highs into early November continue with Oil falling.  

10-26-21    Further gains due in November

10-21-21  Buyable low next week, followed by another surge to higher highs into Nov 8th to 12th week. Energy seasonal is down. 

10-14-21  Late October could set up breakout to record highs again in November. 

10-11-21   Overblown stagflation fears pushing stocks lower. Breakout rally starting by month’s end.  Oil due for top soon $81 – $85

10-05-21  Sharp one day rally has just as quickly reversed  lower. SP 4260 – 4300 support will collapse if testing of that range continues. Breakdown under 4260s targets 4080 to 4150s zone. A rally over 4380 supports a coupe weeks of stable to higher prices

10-01-21   Stocks fell to a sharp new low today at 6% correction levels SP. Trading range action preferred until late October.  A larger rally in November is likely if stocks remain in a trading range or lower during October. SP 500 Index 4290s.

09-28-21   Rate rise fear hits Tech stocks in favor of reopening plays. Our favored Sept/Oct correction phase is still valid. A test under the 4294 low of the 22nd is likely this week. Ideal is sideways prices after an early October Low with risk of final Low in late October. Russell & Dow indices now have leadership. 

09-20-21  The markets fell 3% intraday, reaching 5% correction lows. As our newsletter mentioned, today was a short term climax low. 

09-13-21   Seasonal weakness & a variety of Sell indications should continue to be a risk for lower with the next key zone in the upper 4300s SP.

09-02-21  We are precisely in the time and price window Top for the SP 500 Index forecasted: looking for 4540’s peak by end of the 3rd. We favor a breakdown over the next week. 

08-29-21  A short term peak Sept 3rd is likely later this week with new highs in 4540s. Late Spt’ to late Oct’ remains a high risk for seasonal weakness in prices.

08-24-21   Further strength into month end before another correction phase becomes high odds by Sep’ 6th. Serious correction in Sept/Oct’ are highest seasonal odds of the year

08-19-21  We have our 3rd decisive down day. Short term low due over next few days before rally into early Sept’. Emerging Market stocks and Value/Small Cap stocks still await clarity on Covid Delta wave ending so Dollar can head lower. (Short term $ top due over next couple days)

08-18-21   Today is Day 2 confirmation of our short term Sell forecast. Sep’ SP 4375  is 1st support. With so many wanting a pullback to Buy, we are watching for the brief 3% pullback here. A minor Low due Aug’ 19th to 23rd. Larger correction Low due late Sept’ to late Oct’.

08-12-21  … negative mometum divergence indicates need for a pullback starting by Aug’ 16th to 18th for a 3+ day decline>3% before a bounce back up into early Sept’. Seasonal Lows often arrive between late Sept and late October, so be wary of a surprise correction to put more cash back into reopening and financial stocks on a deeper dive.  Too much money on sidelines waiting for a correction prevents serious drop until market is ready to capitulate into a lower for longer correction phase that has been absent since the Bull market began.  

07-28-21     No Fed taper keeps Bond yeilds low & postpones reopening stocks from surging. More news highs into 4400’s.

07-21-21  Ten Yr Bond yield fell to 1.12% as we expected on fears of Covid & new lockdowns, travel restrictions. Over 4370 targets  4430’s 

07-11-21  Stocks expected to continue to new highs into 2nd half July.  Bonds could fall to 1.20 even 1.12% soon.

07-01-21   Pain trade surpirse would be for Bond yields to actually fall further, so beware of the 10 Yr falling under 1.44% for signs of final Yield breakdown this summer.

06-21-21   With a strong seasonal up due in July, we would be adding more stock exposure late this week or early next on weakness.  

05-24-21  With the SP testing 4200 (1% below its record peak) we are moving more cash into stock for possible breakout to new highs ~4300 -4350. 

05-19-21  The consolidation phase since our targeted April to early May top continues, but should be ending over the next week. 

05-13-21  SP & Dow fell >4% at worst while Tech heavy Nasdaq dropped 8%, which confirms the cyclical selloff we had been looking for. 

04-29-21   A 4 to 6% market correction is due to begin soon if prices can’t continue to new highs soon.

04-27-21  one more surge to new highs this week is possible to SP 4220s – 4250s.

04-22-21    odds favor a quick run back to record highs next week. 

04-21-21    top due within the next couple of weeks.

04-13-21   Stocks are now entering our forecasted time and price zone of April in the upper 4100’s SP to consider raising cash & hedging. As can be seen by recent posts below, our outlook the past few weeks has been for a melt-up rally into an April peak, then a correction low in May.

04-11-21    One more window remains for a final rally into upper 4100s into late April.

04-07-21  Quiet Days Precede Breakout Days!  Still potential in April for upper 4100s.

04-06-21  SP 500 Index in the mid to upper 4100s could be a red flag for Bulls for a larger correction into May-June.

03-29-21  For now there is plenty of cash to drive stocks higher if Yields & Dollar pause or decline. 

03-25-21    SP 3920’s should confirm a solid short term low & then run to test record highs. Longer term Bull market is still ongoing.

03-24-21    June SP Back over 3920 favors another record high in SP. 

03-21-21    1.75% (10 Yr yield) is now the short term danger zone for stocks.   Looking for larger April/May top

02-26-21   Buy the Dips – Buy the Stimulus rumor remain the themes to watch. 

02-16-21  Readers know we have been looking for the mid 3900s as start of potential topping window. The Buy the Rumor mode continues to favor shallow corrections & more upside until Spring when Stimulus measures get passed. Would like to see 3900 hold to keep this short term uptrend going, but some sideways action in the 3900s is likely.

02-05-21  We favor very minor pullbacks as prices move to 3900s on SP. Oil likely to move even higher in February. 

01-07-20  Blue Senate sweep will move Dem party to pass higher spending agenda Q1 2021 = higher stocks. My forecast of SP in mid 3900’s 

12-23-20    Short term buying climax in Q1. Major selloffs (>12%) remain unlikely until economy begins to open near the Spring. If  Dems win the Senate on Jan’ 5th, then yet another Buying spree would send SP up to the 3900s. 

12-20-20   A move back to 3720s SP implies melt up on stimulus news underway with potential to mid-3800s.

12-17-20    Stimulus Bill will be passed before Christmas at which point stock indices will reach all time highs with modest correction risk .  

12-09-20   Larger corrections are welcome, but too many await >10% decline. Use 3% corrections from Index highs to begin adding to underinvested portfolios with goal of 50% exposure to non-Tech: small cap, cyclical, banks, emerging market & Travel/Leisure industry. 

12-01-20    Meltup to 3850s & 3950s is more likely if Stimulus is approved. 

11-17-20   If SP high on 16th @3638 is surpassed, then this rally could spike to 3850 to 3950. Big picture – Bullish. 

11-10-20  Pfizer vaccine success created investor shift out of Tech and into more beaten recovery stocks – Banks, Energy, Industrial.  

11-05-20   Despite the political quagmire, a test of Sept’ 2 all time highs >SP 3570 is likely soon. 

09-28-20   Current rally phase starting on 25th could reach the low 3400’s SP.  Any plunges into January should be bought.

09-16-20    Sept’ correction low due over the next week. 

09-11-20      QCOM & CRWD among top picks at mid-Sept low.

09-08-20     New lows near 17th are likely a Buy.

09-03-20   Our inflection date of 09-02-20 for a Top in SP 3500’s indeed turned out to be an important peak from which stocks – led by Tech – sold off sharply 3 to 5%. Our 09-01-20 newsletter also looked for a top with potential for SP 3200.  

09-01-20  SP  ideal high 09-02-20 with low after mid Sept’.

08-27-20  A climax rally this week before a strong correction. Sept’ SP  3535+ in early Sept’ may be setting up for a top (09-01 to 09-11). 

08-24-20  Next and perhaps last target potential over the next 2 weeks is 3540’s where we may hedge with inverse ETF’s for the downside. 

08-14-20   Apple testing record highs supporting market uptrend. An uptrend breaking out above all time highs of SP 3390’s should be favored. The market momentum is so overbought that most of the Bulls are short term Bearish fearing a correction, thus keeping sentiment from becoming overbought. 

08-12-20   With broad market (SP) now testing all time highs, the odds increase for this melt up climax to jump well above 3400. Above here targets  potential >3500. 

08-06-20   SP 3400+ odds increase within days. 

08-04-20  As long as AAPL, AMZN, MSFT…are hitting new highs the market remains confident of new records in the SP 500 Index 

08-03-20   Apple reached its 440s swing target zone. A rise to 467 is a magnet for a $2 Trillion market cap.  

07-30-20    Despite the altitude of Apple at 400, it’s still a Buy, along with housing related stocks.

06-28-20  Small investor pessimism implies selloffs will not be deep.  

06-11-20  Our June 5th inflection date turned out to be part of the topping process.  Stocks down 8% from highs this week, kicking off possible June correction we were looking for of 8%. Late June is the ideal pullback window. 

05-29-20   Odds increase for small cycle top on June SP near June 5.   Small investor sentiment surprisingly oversold   

05-26-20  Strong breakout today with markets peaking on the morning open. SP to 3050 is breakout target. Next week (June 5th) to upper 3100’s is current target zone. 

05-25-20   Watch for 3040’s over the next week.

05-21-20  A sudden move back to SP 2970 would likely augur well for another breakout targeting ~3050

05-18-20   SP busted through short term resistance in 2890’s. Trend is higher. SP’s main target would be low to mid-3100’s.

05-17-20   Over SP 2880’s – 90’s would turn the trend higher, headed for new highs >3000. 

04-30-20   The exceptionally strong stock market rally of the past 6 weeks may have peaked overnight on the 28th/29th @ SP 2965. 

04-29-20    Short term peak could be any day now. Option trader sentiment is overbought.

04-28-20     Over 2885  June SP=2970. 

04-13-20  Prices can work higher into mid-2900’s SP before a 10% from the peak into a May low.

04-12-20  We expect a selloff by 2nd half of May after an April peak. 

04-07-20   Great news on the falling Corona curve with falling cases throughout Europe & NYCity have given stocks a Bullish footing. : Oil: we expect lower Oil. 

04-05-20   We are encouraged to reduce cash and increase invested allocation to stocks on Tuesday 4-7-20.  We favor a  move to SP 2800

04-03-20   Stock indices are testing key short term resistance today: basis June futures, any move > SP 2530, NQ 7661 & 21,350 would imply a new short term leg higher of 2 to 6%. We will add a 10% QQQ’s on breakout. 

03-23-20   We expect the Virus to peak in April & effective COVID treatments to begin ramping by the Fall with gradual relaxing of economic constraints in May-June. Stocks will have bottomed in late March & stage a series of stair step rallies until the all clear is signaled in 2021.

03-18-20  We are in the middle innings of a medically mandated economic shutdown. Extremely negative data on economy and fatalities from COVID-19 will keep escalating in the weeks ahead. Helicopter money is coming, but stimulus will have limited longer term effect until virus fades.  We are targeting April for the start of the bottoming process – stay tuned. 

03-15-20  150% basis point cut in Fed Funds rate to zero over the last 11 days… This biologic panic requires a biologic measure to indicate the worst is over. The bad news has further to go, so expect ever more promises of monetary/fiscal stimulus in days ahead to stem the free fall in stock prices. 

03-13-20   We would keep some powder for the next rally failure phase & next leg to new lows.  : We suspect Oil in the mid $20’s is coming, which will help depress the stock market.

03-07-20  We continue to expect lower Oil & Stocks. Mid $30’s to mid  20’s Oil price is possible during this pandemic.

03-03-20   Oil may break $44 low on its way to a $30 handle or even 20’s. Stocks should head to new lows. Seems to be very little Monetary or Federal action that can stop this short term and Virus news certainly appears to still be in acceleration mode with general estimates that we need at least a couple months to witness a peak and Bullish reversal in this contagion. The question is when will the panic end – March, April or much later? April is our target.

03-02-20  Bond yields should head for sub 1% on 10 Year. : Oil hit our rebound 1st target in the 48.50’s area. We look to be a seller.

02-28-20    This correction continues to be a news reaction story from a growing contagion that clearly has more time left before a climax of bad news is reached. As we keep saying, it’s not the fear of death as much as the fear from a lock-down and negative sentiment that feeds on itself until the news improves.  While 15% lower in just one week with a virus scare that has not finished spreading, it implies there is more to come, perhaps well over 20% down. We rate the odds of a Fed rate cut in March at 100%. Area shutdowns, school closings , massive curtailment of travel and frequent quarantines have yet to hit the US, but they will. While we estimate the virus will continue to be bad news for stocks & the economy into April, we also estimate it will be improving “by” May with markets rising then in anticipation. Should the virus linger longer than normal, then the risk of a Recession and much deeper Bear market in stocks may occur. Watching for contagion peaks in S.Korea, Japan and Italy will provide key early warnings that the peak crisis in the US will be within a few weeks of beginning to reverse.

02-25-20   The 10 Year Treasury yields hit new record lows at 1.3% on worries of a new leg lower in the global economic slowdown that began in 2018. Oil testing important $50 support. We still suspect Oil is headed for the mid $44 along with lower stocks under 3000 on the SP 500 Index. 

02-24-20  News of Cornoavirus exploding in Italy with quarantines & business closures finally brought the markets to attention that this economic slowdown isn’t just indirectly from China, but spreading organically in the Western world among those with no contact to China. We still don’t think the loss of life will be as bad as the annual common flu from China that takes almost 500,000 lives a year, but the self imposed constraint on business and consumers will increasingly take a toll on global growth and stocks in the weeks ahead.

02-23-20  Sunday night gap down & move to 3280’s SP 500 Index confirms the overdue correction & our inflection point top due last week. Confidence now increases that we have begun the one to two month corrective phase. Look for 10 year Treasury yields to fall under record lows of 1.34%. Adding more downside hedges & raising cash. 

02-20-20  Stocks have had numerous reasons to panic lower throughout February on negative news & yet new record highs have been hit intraday in 10 of the past 11 days . On no news today new records were hit overnight & reversed lower, despite positive rear view mirror news from economic indicators.  Option sentiment is extreme & warrants selling.

02-17-20   Option sentiment is in the high danger zone along with being in the middle of our Time window given for a Top makes us sensitive to potential for a down-move trigger, even though our >3400 SP/ES ideal targets have not quite been reached. If downside picks up steam this week, then 21st/24th inflection flips to possible momentum move lower. 

02-14-20    While we entered a time window for a top this week, we continue to expect ideal short term top near the end of next week ~21st.  Record highs late next week may warrant raising cash & hedging for 10% downside.

02-11-20  Sentiment is once again approaching record Call buying, indicative of a short to medium term peak similar to January 17 to 24th. With option expiration on the 21st, we view that date as the the end of the time window for a February peak.  

02-04-20  Stocks have rallied stronger than we would expect this week. We have no insight to justify the strong overnight surge in stocks with new record highs in Tech indices (Nasdaq) since the Virus scare & risk of China & Global slowing remains high odds bet this month – yet market assumes no risk.

01-24-20  We have talked frequently of a Jan’ 24th top & with stocks and especially commodities like Oil and Copper falling hard, it appears our inflection date is a notable trading top. Stocks & commodities are selling off today on fears of a pandemic or slowing China due to Coronavirus.  Too many investors will be buying the break if prices fall, thus if SP breaks the 4% correction level) then odds increase that this market will drop further than most expect.

01-21-20  Despite a Global Virus scare stocks may run right back to new record highs as expected into our January 24th date. SP test of 3340 is the primary short term resistance levels to watch as we move into the end of the week. Even if stocks have another Bullish year, the current valuations should flatten the upward momentum and allow for some corrective action in February. Prices can continue higher than our target price and time window, but with Optimistic Sentiment measures and valuation metrics above 20 year highs, the upside action should become a bit heavy soon. (Boeing risk 250 to 290 continues to be the risk with a major lows due in 1st quarter, unless further delays beyond July are announced in the 1st Qtr’.)

01-15-20  We will keep  3340 as our key next level level where we look for topping action into the 24th.

01-13-20   Jan’  24th is inflection date where we become more cautious. SP now above 3290 which allows for a surge to 3340. : Stock market – raising cash & hedging short term  becomes a focus in the 2nd half of January (Jan’ 24).

01-11-20   Like 2016 – 2017 we may be entering the 2nd year of a recovery in stocks and 1st year of recovery in the economy. Economy is due to be in modest acceleration phase from a low in 1st half 2020 until late 2021. 2020 is year of earnings execution to justify major run higher in stocks in late 2019.   Look for 2 week corrections from new highs to buy. (Jan’ 24th)

01-09-20  Overnight our often repeated main breakout target of 3283 has now been hit. If 3300 breached then 3320 – 3340 are minor overshoot levels to watch. Hedges can start being entered in this 3283 – 3353 zone basis March SP. We still expect the market to stay in record territory into the Trade signing date on the 15th. For now we would expect modest 5% pullbacks when the short term top finally arrives. Economy and earnings are turning higher and the Bull market will continue into an 11th year. Watch Jan’ 24th & Feb’ 21st + or – a day turn dates.

01-05-20   The China trade signing will take place around the 15th which could create another inflection point or change of direction in stocks. Buying volatility as a hedge on rallies may be wise (VXX) in the upper 3200’s to lower 3300’s on SP. 

12-26-19  Medium term forecasts since summer called for end of July Top, an August correction and rally from October until a China Trade is signed or upper 3200’s SP is reached.  : Any news that newly discovered Boeing (BA) documents were harmful, sending stock under 320, may impact the overall market & economy if 737 Max approval is assumed delayed beyond 1st Qtr expectations.

12-23-19   We suspect a topping process around the assumed China – US trade deal signing ceremony in January. Seasonality supports stocks into mid January. Potential correction starting in January is currently estimated to be single digits % . Ideally SP will continue to our main target of 3280’s or higher before reversing into an overdue correction phase. Longer term we remain Bullish.

12-16-19   Further gains to  SP 3280’s by the time a trade deal signing ceremony occurs. 

12-12-19 It’s doubtful anyone expected a landslide vote for Brexit, a major Phase One Trade Deal with China and NAFTA II (USMCA) all being confirmed the same week. Add icing to the sentiment shift with the House failure to gain support on Impeachment as the tables now turn a 180. Stocks are already high & a short to medium term peak may be near, but longer term capital spending & GDP in the US and around the world may heat up in 2020 just when many were expecting a Recession. Should this economic turn occur – as we have postulated throughout the year – then optimism over a pro business Trump election may support markets more than normal.  

12-11-19  There was a less than Zero% chance the Fed would cut or raise rates this week & markets showed their disinterest just as they did regarding the Impeachment hearings. We favor no tariff hikes & higher stocks. 

12-05-19  … we continue to favor China deal remaining close enough to postpone the Trump tariffs. Look for…a short burst in stocks into year end –  to upper 3200’s if tariffs removed & agreement ready to sign.

11-16-19  SP broke out as Trump advisor Kudlow implied a Phase One deal with China merely required filling in the details.  

11-08-19   Ideal timing currently for signing a deal is prior to scheduled mid-December tariff hike. 

11-07-19     Disney finally vindicated our hold from 100 and the 130’s. Now DIS longs can be faded @ 140’s as streaming launch & Holiday movies may boost price even further, but competition is enormous & expensive.

11-03-19  Next swing target=3090 Dec’ S&P.  Year end potential = 3190’s Dec’ SP 500 Index.

10-28-19  The major stock indices broke to new record highs today for the 1st time in 3 months as expected in earlier posts.  Focus on China phase one signing should keep bids under stocks. 

10-25-19  Stocks have been boring, but as forecast stocks are ending the 2 to 3 month trading range with an upward bias as expected that could test record highs in October and reach further new highs before expected China Trade updates near mid-November. If Phase One Trade with China signed & Dec’ tariffs are removed, then allow a surge into upper 3100’s potentially as a global rebound would then begin being priced in. :::  Specific comment on stocks: Earnings are better than feared and the market continues to favor value and consumer orientation vs FANG and high flying tech. AMZN plunge to mid 1600’s should be a buying opportunity. Tesla has finally impressed us for the next qtr’. ALGN has resumed its growth trajectory. ServiceNow is unaffected by global slowing. Despite record competition in the entertainment at home space, DISney should make one more run higher into the Holiday viewing season as new service is launched where we would be paring back.

10-17-19   Stocks have an upward bias that should grow as we approach November 16th when US & China should sign phase 1 of Trade Deal. Testing record highs or modest push to new highs below 3100 SP is possible. Key focus after mid-Nov’ is status of mid-Dec’ Tariff hikes that Trump may postpone now that deal making is occurring for 1st time in this 2 year battle. Three news events will control markets over the next month: Brexit, Fed rate cut decision & potential Phase One US/China Trade Deal signing with hints about planned Dec’ tariff hikes in Nov’.

10-15-19   This rally should continue… Short term Oil price action will continue to influence stocks. Any removal of China tariffs will trigger a significant breakout higher in stocks and commodities as anticipation of a 2020 global rebound will start adding premium to current valuations. Until then trading range mentality rules with only minor breakouts possible.

10-03-19  Indicators showing weakest economy in 3 to 4 years signals to us that  0.5% to 1.8%  GDP  Qtr’s are likely 2nd half of 2019 into early 2020 and an annual GDP rate falling below 2% before turning back higher in 2020. Unfortunately a China Trade Deal appears to be the only economic catalyst on the horizon. 

09-27-19  We remain in 2 to 3 month corrective period forecast at the end of July.  Tech remains out of favor while consumer staple stocks have taken charge.

09-25-19  Our 13th-16th top in 3020’s defined the short term top expected. Market pulled back as expected & has begun a rally we forecasted into late September as October Trade Talks near. Any SP move late Sept’ above 3026 would then create potential for 3090’s in October. Leadership in this market is weak and approaching October seasonality can create some strong 2 way action. Any SP move back under 2955 may lead to short term capitulation under 2900. A move in Oil to support near $53 – $54 over the next week should bring stocks lower. 

09-13-19  Our 3026 target was almost reached today. The benchmark SP 500 Index entered the short term topping zone due prior to next weeks Fed rate cut due on September 18th. After a setback surrounding the rate cut, stocks may rebound to stay near record levels until Trade talks occur in October. : The shift from successful fast growing tech to value stocks continues. Stocks that performed well this week should remain in favor after a decline and those that fell from record levels this week without a significant rebound should be shunned.

09-11-19  Our SP next zone at 3026 expected this week. Short term top continues to look like 13th – 16th. Major portfolio sentiment shift after Bullish China tariff talk led to mass selling of high flying tech winners.

09-05-18  Quite the quick forecast fulfillment: The SP topped near 2940 with quick pullback followed by a final test of 2940 that we warned would trigger a breakout to 3000. SP 3004 is the ideal target by 16th, with more potential if Oil above $58.  

08-30-19   Any new move to upper 2940’s increases odds quickly of an upside breakout back above 3000

08-08-19  SP 2850’s is this weeks downside risk.  Economy will continue to slow to < 2% GDP growth & flight to safety & lower yields should continue.

08-05-19  Our 8% correction zone minimum has already been hit after after just over 3 down days with the overnight SP hitting 2776. Our August – October bottoming zone currently looks like an 8 to 14% max’ correction. 

08-03-19   July proved to be the Buy the Rumor, Sell the News action for stocks as the Sept’ SP 500 Index sold off to 2900 area.   ::: While the industrial economy is edging into contraction & should stay down most of this year, no overall recession is expected. Economic cycle low mid-2019 to early 2020 & next cycle top in GDP in 2021 before trouble starts brewing once again as in 2018’s GDP top, but with a deeper US downturn potentially in 2022.

07-27-19    It’s late July with SP at 3024  …Higher prices into our zone this week would allow for a corrective phase most of August. : Add short hedge VXX up to 5% portfolio if Sep’ SP >3020;.

07-12-19    Uptrend into late July into SP 3020 to 3050 zone still ideal for potential top.

(more past track record forecast commentary below our Favorite stock list)

07-02-19  Stocks are moving to new records each day. SP 3000 – 3020’s next upside target zone. While all of July looks supportive for stocks and sentiment gauges are not even close to overbought, we would be surprised to see gains above the 3020’s SP given the weak economic and earnings data we expect.

07-01-19  Stock indices: more record highs are likely with Fed cuts expected end of July, Bonds and stocks should have a floor preventing major declines for now.

06-30-19  Exuberant expectations of China and US trade talks reconvening along with expected end of July Fed rate cut are sending stocks surging to record highs in early July. SP 500 Index heading above 3,000 & Dow over 27,000. 

06-14-19   With assumption that Trump & Xi will talk Trade at G20 June 28th & Fed will cut rates, stocks remain in uptrend : 10 Yr’ still heading toward 2% yield or 128+ basis Sept’ 10 Yr Note, where Bonds & Stocks may reach a temp’ peak.

06-09-19   current trend in 10 Yr yields is toward 2%. 

06-03-19   Last week our target was June 3rd low at 2733.   2730 on June 3rd was the low before a monster short covering rally today on the news the Fed was open to a rate cut. This has placed a nice floor under the market preventing Trade War worries from tanking the market near term. We have talked of this corrective period as part of a trading range being carved out from 2700’s to 2900’s area. 

05-28-19     low due near June 3rd for a 7% correction.

05-21-19     Without a China Trade Agreement a broader trading range (2700’s – 2900’s) remains the best odds.

05-09-19   New Trump Tariffs without a hint of a deal being close will send stocks down sharply. : The high flyers we exited are amazingly still sitting at record highs after incredible gains this year –> WIX, SHOP, VEEV, DIS, GPN, OKTA,  TWLO… 

05-07-19   We have raised more cash. Our charts have been showing this decline with potential for 7 to 10% this month. 

04-30-19   Upper end of our short term target window is now being tested in the lower June S&P 2960’s .  

04-23-19   There is a feeling of climax in the air as many worry we are at an inflection area.  SP 2940’s to 2960’s remain our ideal topping zone to watch for.  : Exit DIS 140.

04-12-19  Fortunately we added Disney to the portfolio earlier this week. … : The S&P basis cash index targets 2950 area in coming weeks. 

04-10-19  … there is enough buying power to prevent any meaningful corrections near term.

04-05-19  Look for our forecast of record highs this summer to arrive in April. 

02-28-19   Still expecting record highs in all major indices by summer. Long term picture remains positive.   Stay with trend & use 3% corrections for more additions. 

02-25-19  SP reached our 2800 – 2832 intermediate topping zone today after Trump announced Sunday he would suspend the new China tariff deadline. Stocks then pulled back from the SP 2814 highs on Trumps tweets drove Oil prices down. As mentioned in our latest “In The News” section interview the other week, a new Trade Deal framework might be the classic Buy the Rumor Sell the News of an agreement. If Oil moves to new 2019 highs then stocks may start move to new 2019 highs again.  

02-15-19  Our bias has remained to the upside with stock indices just 5% from all time highs.  Max potential in Feb’ in 2830’s. Next time indices fall more than 2% will quickly increase odds of our first meaningful correction of the year.: Oil is tethered to stocks & we remain long looking for $56.50 area next week before a pullback and >$60 eventually.

02-12-19  Well our suspicion of minimal downside risk before March 1st was realized today as the ideal 3+% correction was only 2% and the SP did rise above the reversal level of 2730 hinting that this market has a floor of optimism over a trade deal and is unlikely to plunge. 

02-07-19 … should the SP regain the 2730’s and Oil move back over $54, we would assume the correction phase is not ready to begin … significant downside risk before the March 1st trade deal deadline seems very unlikely

02-01-19  Stocks …longer term 2019 target zone remains Bullish in the 2900 to 3100 SP 500 Index, assuming no tariff war escalation. 

01-30-19   Impressive news response syndrome continues. Market confidence of a China Trade deal grows each week & is a major tailwind that will continue into February until China or the US publicize roadblocks. March SP 2730’s to 2740’s is the next target zone. The Feb’ pullback we expected may be elusive or a much higher low than many had hoped for.  

01-17-19   We have been expecting the obvious resistance in the low 2620’s SP to break .. No longer is this a market Selling Good News, but Buying Bad news.

01-14-19  Late January top short term should lead to a strong pullback into a Feb’ low where new buying is expected. Weak earnings & economy are “mostly” priced in. Short term trader Equity Call option buying indicates a ceiling on price with SP likely to stay under the low 2700’s in Jan’ & then fall into lower 2500’s in Feb’.

01-06-19    Further economic weakness is expected over the next few months when equity valuation risk should be mostly priced in. A test of record highs due this summer, assuming a positive trade deal in the 1st qtr’.

12-26-18  Strong short term bottom is likely in with the spike low early today (12-26-18). $VIX close over 36 Monday implies a low of some importance has arrived

12-18-18  With the sharp drop in China Trade proxies of Aussie$, Copper & Crude Oil today…a reversal lower in stocks before Christmas would not be a surprise.

12-17-18   New 2018 lows breaking multi-month support hints of capitulation. We remain with heavy cash levels

12-07-18   After 3 tests of the 10% correction lows since the Oct’ 3rd peak our old adage hints this 4th test has higher odds of busting to new lows – new 2018 lows, perhaps as much as the 17 to 20% correction levels from the peak basis Dow & SP.  Need a VIX>35-50 for a stronger low. Now 73% in cash.

12-04-18  Mini panic underway …We are raising more cash … Need to await new oversold signals before putting cash back into stocks.  

12-03-18  China sensitive Soybeans and Copper heading down all day is a sign the markets fear the China Trade truce will fail. If SP 500 Index 2760 & Dow 25,538 are tested or broken this week, then the Trade relief rally is on hold & stocks will continue to work even lower … 

11-20-18  The Dow psychology is setting up quickly for a stock market … tradable December low despite more downgrades in 2019.

11-19-18  We are a net 39% long stocks … hopes of a Trade deal seem ripe for disappointment yet again. 

10-18-18   Like the Jan’ – Feb’ correction, stocks…now heading back to the lows or new lows …

10-04-18   Our end of September newsletter warned of an October pullback as the mid-term election nears.  

08-04-18   Dow rally … to continue to new multi-month highs over the next 3 weeks … S&P 2900 to 2910 is the ideal target in August. 

05-10-18    … we should expect rhetoric that keeps Oil prices edging higher (>$70). 

04-14-18   Oil has remained high as expected …We continue to like buying the dips into at least mid-May   

03-27-18    … we continue to favor Trump … pivoting to an aggressive focus on Iran (Higher Oil)

03-18-18    Use any new testing of 11 to 15% intraday correction level as new buying entry.

02-05-18    Look for an initial low this week.

02-03-18    For a couple of months we have discussed our forecast for the first real correction since Trump was elected is due during the 1st qtr’ 2018  from late January to late February.

01-23-18   A several month pause into the spring looks likely.  

11-14-17    serious corrections of 10% or more will hold off until the 1st quarter of 2018. 

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————