3 Tests & a Tumble

{Follow model portfolio table & favored stocks below}

Select commentary:

12-07-18  After a large one day wonder of a rally, the mini panic has resumed. After 3 tests of the 10% correction lows since the Oct’ 3rd peak our old adage hints this 4th test has higher odds of busting to new lows – new 2018 lows, perhaps as much as the 17 to 20% correction levels from the peak basis Dow & SP. Reporters naively claim stocks are falling today on a weak jobs report & of course they would say the same thing if it fell on a strong jobs report that would cause more rate hike fears. Need a VIX>35-50 for a stronger low. Now 73% in cash.

12-04-18  Mini panic underway as Yield Curve almost inverts on the unimportant short maturities & investors are questioning the potential China Trade deal. We are raising more cash in yet another excessively negative news response on little substantive market changes. Need to await new oversold signals before putting cash back into stocks. SP 2800-2820 is now serious overhead resistance above which Bullish trend returns.  Fear gauge, put/call ratios & other measures are currently neutral and need oversold reading technically or the fundamental news that confirms China compromising & buying product as promised. 

12-03-18  I worry we are being whipsawed! We are still 52% in cash. We struggled to add to the cash heavy portfolio today picking up Palo Alto & exiting a soaring Microsoft. While most of the stocks on our favored list below keep testing or hitting new highs, we are concerned by the behavior of the markets today. Stocks indices hit their highs (+500 Dow) before the open and closed well off those highs & still edging lower after hours. Additionally, the China sensitive Soybeans and Copper heading down all day is a sign the markets fear the China Trade truce will fail. If SP 500 Index 2760 & Dow 25,538 are tested or broken this week, then the Trade relief rally is on hold & stocks will continue to work even lower without stronger action on the Trade front. The Dow rallied 1,700+ points over the past 6 days, but today’s price action was weak.

12-02-18  Investors should increase equity exposure again Monday on deep retracements. Good news of a 90 day reprieve on the escalating trade war with China has sent soaring. The trade resolution prospects have not actually risen much…

11-26-18   AAII small investor sentiment at 33 month extreme negativity, primed for a news event trigger for multi-week up move if Trump – Xi meeting market reaction resolves in early December. 

11-20-18  The Dow fell almost 1,000 points in 2 days this week & most analysts feel there isn’t enough Fear. Well, Put buying is near pessimistic extremes & the Fear index is as oversold as it gets. … psychology is setting up quickly for a stock market low warranting new upside positioning this week & over the next few weeks. Our heavy cash positions & shorts will be exiting for new Longs in coming weeks for at least a tradable December low despite more downgrades in 2019.

11-19-18  We are a net 39% long stocks even though new Sentiment extremes are fast approaching for a low. OPEC meeting 12-06-18, Trump- China Trade meeting 12-02-18 & Fed hikes/guidance 12-18-18 are the next news events that have market reversal potential, yet hopes of a Trade deal seem ripe for disappointment yet again. Amazingly MKC, JNJ, ABT, UNH, HCA and VZ are testing or hitting new highs in this market.

11-15-18   Seasonal low in Oil setting up for 1st qtr 2019 in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s. 10 Year yield down to 2,75 to 2.95% more likely before stocks and Oil bottom longer term.

11-01-18    Most indicators began hitting oversold Buy zones last week & reached historic extremes at the current bottom on the 26th. 

10-26-18  Our Newsletter call since Sept’ 28th was to expect a weak market in October with no chance to be a buyer until at least the November 6th elections. That simple forecast looks better by the day. Stocks hit the 11% correction level today. 

10-18-18   Like the Jan’ – Feb’ correction, stocks had a brief rally & now heading back to the lows or new lows …

10-04-18   Our end of September newsletter warned of an October pullback as the mid-term election nears. 

09-27-18   Medium term traders should use the lows of 09-26-18 as short term support below which a new short term leg down may accelerate. 

08-04-18  Sentiment was neutral during  1,500 point Dow rally since the July 3rd low, which allows … prices to continue to new multi-month highs over the next 3 weeks … S&P 2900 to 2910 is the ideal target in August. 

06-25-18    Trump will risk furthering a trade war …he doesn’t want a deal; he wants a weaker China & stronger USA.

05-10-18    … we should expect rhetoric that keeps Oil prices edging higher (>$70). 

04-16-18    Our April Dow target is 26,800-900. 

04-14-18   Oil has remained high as expected …We continue to like buying the dips into at least mid-May as Iranian talks heat up.  

03-27-18    … we continue to favor Trump … pivoting to an aggressive focus on Iran by May. (Higher Oil)

03-18-18   Stocks: Use any new testing of 11 to 15% intraday correction level as new buying entry.

02-05-18    Current 2018 correction hit the 10% level on the Dow. Look for an initial low this week.

02-03-18    For a couple of months we have discussed our forecast for the first real correction since Trump was elected is due during the 1st qtr’ 2018 earnings reporting period from late January to late February.

01-23-18     We continue to view this period into mid-February as a higher risk time for earnings euphoria saturation.  A several month pause into the spring looks likely, especially if the 5% correction level is tested.  

11-14-17   Our current expectation remains that more serious corrections of 10% or more will hold off until the 1st quarter of 2018. 

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Equity Investors 27% Net Long stocks

Model 11 long holdings 1 short hedge of 3k/initial positions each:

Model Portfolio Tracker:

1-2-2018 Start Value = $101,000 

2018 ExecSpec portfolio P&L= $24,375 = +24.1% return YTD 12-07-18-2018@2pm EST {SP 500= -1%:Nasdaq=+3.3%}

Open positions:

Symbol Name Action Qty Entry Date Entry Price Last Total Chg Total %Chg Profit Total Profit
CNC Centene Corp Buy 30 1/2/2018 100.7 132.48 31.78 31.56% -88.8 953.4
CRM Salesforce.com Inc Buy 30 1/2/2018 102.88 135.46 32.58 31.67% -198 977.4
PYPL Paypal Holdings Buy 40 1/2/2018 75.24 82.39 7.15 9.50% -137.2 286
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc Buy 78 1/1/2018 38.37 46.57 8.2 21.37% -142 639.6
MA Mastercard Inc Buy 15 7/11/2018 200.47 196.04 -4.43 -2.21% -104.3 -66.45
JNJ Johnson & Johnson Buy 23 9/5/2018 134 145.18 11.18 8.34% -16.79 257.14
TWLO Twilio Buy 45 10/16/2018 67.75 88.35 20.6 30.41% -352.8 927
UNH Unitedhealth Group Inc Buy 11 10/16/2018 268.68 268.72 0.04 0.01% -89.43 0.44
DIS Walt Disney Company Buy 26 11/1/2018 115.2 111.96 -3.24 -2.81% -38.74 -84.24
AMGN Amgen Inc Buy 15 11/29/2018 199.78 191.84 -7.94 -3.97% -107.6 -119.1
PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc Buy 17 12/3/2018 176.68 174.96 -1.72 -0.97% -115.9 -29.24
SDS Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares Buy 80 12/7/2018 38.01 39.66 1.65 4.34% 132 132
Detailed view with closed positions in 2018:
Symbol Name Action Qty Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Last Total Chg Total %Chg Total Profit
OLLI Ollies Bargain CS Buy 57 1/2/2018 53.2 12/7/2018 73.7 20.5 38.53% 1168.5
SPY S&P 500 SPDR Buy 11 12/2/2018 267.65 12/4/2018 274.94 7.29 2.72% 80.19
SQ Square Buy 35 9/19/2018 84 12/4/2018 66.26 -17.74 -21.12% -620.9
FIVE Five Below Inc Buy 25 9/20/2018 126 12/4/2018 106.33 -19.67 -15.61% -491.75
AMZN Amazon.com Inc Buy 3 1/2/2018 1172 12/4/2018 1721.15 549.15 46.86% 1647.45
MSFT Microsoft Corp Buy 35 1/2/2018 86.13 12/3/2018 112.09 25.96 30.14% 908.6
TLT 20+ Year Treas Bond Ishares ETF Buy 25 10/18/2018 113.62 11/30/2018 115.33 1.71 1.51% 42.75
SDS Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares Buy 80 11/19/2018 37.65 11/26/2018 39.15 1.5 3.98% 120
TLND Talend S.A. Buy 48 11/1/2018 62 11/19/2018 37.1 -24.9 -40.16% -1195.2
AMZN Amazon.com Inc Buy 2 9/10/2018 1939.01 11/19/2018 1555 -384.01 -19.80% -768.02
BA Boeing Company Buy 10 1/1/2018 295.75 11/19/2018 330.5 34.75 11.75% 347.5
GOOGL Alphabet Class A Buy 3 8/28/2018 1246 11/9/2018 1088 -158 -12.68% -474
WP Worldpay Inc Buy 41 1/2/2018 73.54 11/8/2018 91.13 17.59 23.92% 721.19
PSQ QQQ Short Proshares Buy 100 10/18/2018 30.78 11/1/2018 31.73 0.95 3.09% 95
SDS Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares Buy 82 10/22/2018 36.48 10/23/2018 37.75 1.27 3.48% 104.14
PSQ QQQ Short Proshares Buy 100 10/18/2018 30.95 10/23/2018 31.6 0.65 2.10% 65
TLT 20+ Year Treas Bond Ishares ETF Buy 25 10/18/2018 113.75 10/23/2018 114.34 0.59 0.52% 14.75
UNP Union Pacific Corp Buy 22 1/2/2018 134.71 10/22/2018 147.9 13.19 9.79% 290.18
AAPL Apple Inc Buy 14 8/30/2018 220.15 10/18/2018 217.66 -2.49 -1.13% -34.86
ADBE Adobe Systems Inc Buy 17 1/2/2018 175.85 10/18/2018 250.85 75 42.65% 1275
TBF 20+ Year Short Treasury Proshares Buy 130 10/4/2018 23.62 10/16/2018 23.92 0.3 1.27% 39
PSQ QQQ Short Proshares Buy 100 10/4/2018 29.65 10/16/2018 31.21 1.56 5.26% 156
XPO Xpo Logistics Inc Buy 33 1/2/2018 92.5 10/16/2018 103.59 11.09 11.99% 365.97
PLD Prologis Inc Buy 47 1/2/2018 64.59 10/16/2018 64 -0.59 -0.91% -27.73
DPZ Domino’s Pizza Inc Buy 16 1/2/2018 188.52 10/16/2018 264.75 76.23 40.44% 1219.68
PSQ QQQ Short Proshares Buy 100 10/9/2018 30.25 10/15/2018 31.61 1.36 4.50% 136
USO US Oil Fund Sell 200 9/21/2018 14.96 10/10/2018 15.65 0.69 4.61% -138
FSCT Forescout Technologies Inc Buy 75 9/19/2018 38.1 10/10/2018 33.18 -4.92 -12.91% -369
ZBRA Zebra Technologies Buy 29 1/2/2018 104.1 10/4/2018 68.45 -35.65 -34.25% -1033.85
TLND Talend S.A. Buy 80 1/2/2018 37.8 10/4/2018 68.29 30.49 80.66% 2439.2
SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. Buy 21 4/6/2018 146.07 10/4/2018 174.24 28.17 19.29% 591.57
PAYX Paychex Inc Buy 41 9/5/2018 73.07 9/27/2018 73.6 0.53 0.73% 21.73
FXF Swiss Franc Trust Currencyshares Invesco Buy 32 7/31/2018 94.6 9/27/2018 96 1.4 1.48% 44.8
SH S&P 500 Short Proshares Buy 103 6/27/2018 29.2 9/20/2018 27.33 -1.87 -6.40% -192.61
RHT Red Hat Inc Buy 25 1/2/2018 121.04 9/20/2018 134.4 13.36 11.04% 334
PFPT Proofpoint Inc Buy 34 1/2/2018 89.55 9/20/2018 104.91 15.36 17.15% 522.24
SH S&P 500 Short Proshares Buy 110 8/30/2018 27.45 9/10/2018 27.6 0.15 0.55% 16.5
BOX Box Inc Buy 143 1/2/2018 21.24 8/30/2018 24 2.76 12.99% 394.68
CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers Buy 32 1/2/2018 95.31 8/16/2018 112.85 17.54 18.40% 561.28
MGPI MGP Ingredients Inc Buy 39 1/2/2018 77.22 8/14/2018 77.22 unch unch 0
NOW Servicenow Inc Buy 23 1/2/2018 131 7/30/2018 184 53 40.46% 1219
NFLX Netflix Inc Buy 16 1/2/2018 196.1 7/18/2018 381.24 185.14 94.41% 2962.24
PSQ QQQ Short Proshares Buy 96 6/25/2018 31.35 7/13/2018 30.35 -1 -3.19% -96
HOME At Home Group Inc Buy 100 1/2/2018 30.43 7/11/2018 39.17 8.74 28.72% 874
BLD Topbuild Corp Buy 40 1/2/2018 75.92 7/9/2018 81 5.08 6.69% 203.2
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Buy 17 1/1/2018 176.4 7/2/2018 183.1 6.7 3.80% 113.9
TWLO Twilio Buy 126 1/2/2018 24.13 6/27/2018 58 33.87 140.36% 4267.62
NTNX Nutanix Inc Buy 86 1/2/2018 35.28 6/25/2018 53.28 18 51.02% 1548
SDS Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares Buy 83 1/23/2018 36.49 5/21/2018 38.08 1.59 4.36% 131.97
SBUX Starbucks Corp Buy 52 1/2/2018 57.95 1/26/2018 52.29 -5.66 -9.77% -294.32
PODD Insulet Corp Buy 44 1/2/2018 69.14 1/26/2018 77.76 8.62 12.47% 379.28
ISRG Intuitive Surg Inc Buy 8 1/2/2018 367.89 1/26/2018 440.24 72.35 19.67% 578.8
KRE S&P Regional Banking ETF SPDR Buy 51 1/2/2018 59.26 1/26/2018 63.06 3.8 6.41% 193.8
SDS Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares Buy 80 12/7/2018 38.01 39.64 1.63 4.29% 130.4
PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc Buy 17 12/3/2018 176.68 175.09 -1.59 -0.90% -27.03
AMGN Amgen Inc Buy 15 11/29/2018 199.78 191.61 -8.17 -4.09% -122.55
DIS Walt Disney Company Buy 26 11/1/2018 115.2 111.96 -3.24 -2.81% -84.24
UNH Unitedhealth Group Inc Buy 11 10/16/2018 268.68 268.82 0.14 0.05% 1.54
TWLO Twilio Buy 45 10/16/2018 67.75 88.68 20.93 30.89% 941.85
JNJ Johnson & Johnson Buy 23 9/5/2018 134 145.31 11.31 8.44% 260.13
MA Mastercard Inc Buy 15 7/11/2018 200.47 195.97 -4.5 -2.24% -67.5
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc Buy 78 1/1/2018 38.37 46.55 8.18 21.32% 638.04
PYPL Paypal Holdings Buy 40 1/2/2018 75.24 82.48 7.24 9.62% 289.6
CRM Salesforce.com Inc Buy 30 1/2/2018 102.88 135.4 32.52 31.61% 975.6
CNC Centene Corp Buy 30 1/2/2018 100.7 132.74 32.04 31.82% 961.2
 Favored stocks Buy list (*=currently in strong momentum mode near highs)

ABT Abbott Labs*AET Aetna : *AMED Amedisys : AMGN AmgenAMZN  Amazon :  ACN Accenture : *BEAT Biotelemtry : *CDW : *CLX Clorox :  CNC  Centene : CRM Salesforece : COUP  Coupa Software :  CSCO Cisco : *DATA Tableau Software : DBX Drop Box : DIS Disney : DXCM Decom :  *ETSY : FIVE Five Below :  GOOGL  Alphabet  : *GOOS Canada Goose : *HCA Healthcare Hldgs’ : *JNJ Johnson&Johnson :  INTU Intuit : ISRG Intuitive Surgical  : LNG Cheniere : MA  Mastercard   : *MKC Mccormick  : *MDB MongoDB :  MMSI Merit Medical : MSFT Microsoft :  OLLI  Ollies  : PANW Palo Alto : *PLD  Prologis : PYPL PayPal  : SPOT Spotify  :  SPLK Splunk  : *SBUX Starbucks :  TLND Talend  :  *TWLO Twilio :  *UNH  United Healthcare  : V  Visa  : VZ Verizon : *VMW   VMWare  : *WM Waste Mgmt’WP WorldPay  : *WDAY Workday  : *YUM :  ZBRA – Zebra Tech’  

US Indexes – ETF’s:  SPY :  QQQ  :  XLK  :  HACK= Cyber security : XHE=Healthcare : FINX=Fintech : *IHF : *XLV : *OLD : MOAT

Current commodity funds ETN’s or ETF’s in long term Buy zones: Aussie$=FXA :  Yen=FXY :  Silver=SLV : Gold=IAU :  Soybeans=SOYB :  

::: When using Stock Index Short hedges:=SH (short for SPY) : DOG for DJIA : PSQ (short for QQQ)

Core stock shopping buy list at next technical oversold zone: COUP, SPLK, VMW, TWLO, NOW, WDAY,  DATA, CDW, YUM, CRM, ABT, UNH, V, VZ, OLLI,

Stocks to buy when China Trade issue on track to resolution: BA, CAT, EMR, HON, SOYB, FXA, SBUX, VWO, QCOM, GS

Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

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