Important August Top – Sept’ Low?

{Follow model portfolio table below}

08-16-18  News of China trade talks in August sent stocks soaring, with techs lagging. Our top 20 stocks (below) continue to probe new highs in August.

08-04-18  Sentiment has remained surprisingly neutral during the nice 4 week 1.500 point Dow rally since the July 3rd low, which allows for further upside action near term. Should prices continue to new multi-month highs over the next 1 to 3 weeks, we will be targeting a potentially important cycle peak. Should it coincide with overbought sentiment readings, then we would forecast a sharp correction into September. Potential top is due around the Aug’ 10th – & as late as the 27th that could test or exceed the record Sep’ S&P high of 2900. S&P 2900 to 2910 is the ideal target in August as long as the 2790’s hold as support. Correction low in Sept’. Long term picture remains Bullish with the low odds caveat of avoiding full scale trade war that is threatened in the ongoing Texas Hold’em Poker game Trump is playing..

08-02-18  Trump’s new China tariff escalation sent stock plunging, but stronger Oil prices & Apple’s inevitable surge to $1 Trillion value are turning stocks back up. This trade – news driven short term volatility is the pattern for 2018.

07-30-18  Top due July 27th came in as expected, but Facebook plunge has triggered a Tech led exodus in the broader market. An S&P close under 2800 would increase the odds of this trading range correction extending into the 2nd or 3rd week of August. Sentiment since June remains neutral.

06-25-18   We continue to think Trump will risk furthering a trade war until China (& other countries) feel enough pain to provide major concessions or until actual trade imbalances improve. Historically the US trade deficit only shrinks when the US economy contracts. Trump would deserve a Nobel in economics should he achieve improved trade balances while the economy and earnings remain robust. 

05-10-18    … we should expect rhetoric that keeps Oil prices edging higher (>$70) – Buy the Oil/energy stock dips. US Oil production is currently at another record 1o.5  mbd in April, projected to top 12 mbd by year end.  Energy infrastructure and pipeline companies serving the Permian should have more business than they can handle for at least the next year! 

04-16-18    Our April target is 26,800-900. 

04-14-18   Oil has remained high as expected …We continue to like buying the dips into at least mid-May as Iranian talks heat up.  

03-27-18    … we continue to favor Trump … pivoting to an aggressive focus on Iran by May. (Higher Oil)

03-18-18   Stocks: Use any new testing of 11 to 15% correction level as new buying entry.

02-05-18    Current 2018 correction has already hit the magnetic 10% level on the Dow. Look for an initial low this week.

02-03-18    For a couple of months we have discussed our forecast for the first real correction since Trump was elected is due during the 1st qtr’ 2018 earnings reporting period from late January to late February.

01-23-18     We continue to view this period into mid-February as a higher risk time for earnings euphoria saturation.  A several month pause into the spring looks likely, especially if the 5% correction level is tested. 

01-03-18    Positive economic news environment in the US & Globally still bodes well for stocks in January. Currently there are still too many looking for any pullback to Buy heavily. 

11-14-17   Our current expectation remains that more serious corrections of 10% or more will hold off until the 1st quarter of 2018. 

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Equity Investors 44% Net Long stocks

Model 22 long holdings & 1 short of 3k/initial positions each:

Model Portfolio Tracker:

1-2-2018 Start Value = $101,000 with

2018 ExecSpec portfolio P&L= $31,202 = +30.9% return YTD 08-16-2018 {SP 500=+6%:Nasdaq=+14.9%}
Symbol Name Last Change %Chg Market Val Total Chg Total %Chg Profit Total Profit Time
KRE S&P Regional Banking ETF SPDR 63.06 3216.06 3.8 6.41% 193.8 Liquidated
AMZN Amazon.Com Inc 1886.52 3.9 0.21% 5659.56 714.52 60.97% 11.7 2143.56 ########
ADBE Adobe Systems Inc 248.89 -1.63 -0.65% 4231.13 73.04 41.54% -27.71 1241.68 ########
BLD Topbuild Corp 81 3240 5.08 6.69% 203.2 Liquidated
BOX Box Inc 25.32 0.12 0.48% 3620.76 4.08 19.21% 17.16 583.44 ########
CNC Centene Corp 143.92 0.22 0.15% 4317.6 43.22 42.92% 6.6 1296.6 ########
CRM Salesforce.Com Inc 145.73 0.69 0.48% 4371.9 42.85 41.65% 20.7 1285.5 ########
CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers 112.85 3611.2 17.54 18.40% 67.84 561.28 Liquidated
DPZ Domino’s Pizza Inc 287.72 3.53 1.24% 4603.52 99.2 52.62% 56.48 1587.2 ########
HOME At Home Group Inc 39.17 3917 8.74 28.72% 874 Liquidated
ISRG Intuitive Surg Inc 440.24 3521.92 72.35 19.67% 578.8 Liquidated
MGPI MGP Ingredients Inc 77.22 3011.58 unch unch 0 Liquidated
MSFT Microsoft Corp 107.64 -0.02 -0.02% 3767.4 21.51 24.97% -0.7 752.85 ########
NOW Servicenow Inc 184 4232 53 40.46% 1219 Liquidated
NFLX Netflix Inc 381.24 6099.84 185.14 94.41% 2962.24 Liquidated
NTNX Nutanix Inc 53.28 4582.08 18 51.02% 1548 Liquidated
OLLI Ollies Bargain CS 73.5 0.65 0.89% 4189.5 20.3 38.16% 37.05 1157.1 ########
PFPT Proofpoint Inc 115.12 0.06 0.05% 3914.08 25.57 28.55% 2.04 869.38 ########
PLD Prologis Inc 65.65 1.14 1.77% 3085.55 1.06 1.64% 53.58 49.82 ########
PYPL Paypal Holdings 85.32 0.13 0.15% 3412.8 10.08 13.40% 5.2 403.2 ########
PODD Insulet Corp 77.76 3421.44 8.62 12.47% 379.28 Liquidated
RHT Red Hat Inc 140.79 1.66 1.19% 3519.75 19.75 16.32% 41.5 493.75 ########
SBUX Starbucks Corp 52.29 2719.08 -5.66 -9.77% -294.32 Liquidated
SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. 192.36 2.03 1.07% 4039.56 46.29 31.69% 42.63 972.09 ########
TLND Talend S.A. 58.66 -0.21 -0.36% 4692.8 20.86 55.19% -16.8 1668.8 ########
TWLO Twilio 58 7308 33.87 140.36% 4267.62 Liquidated
UNP Union Pacific Corp 149.25 0.27 0.18% 3283.5 14.54 10.79% 5.94 319.88 ########
WP Worldpay Inc. 92.74 1.1 1.20% 3802.34 19.2 26.11% 45.1 787.2 ########
XPO Xpo Logistics Inc 102.41 2.53 2.53% 3379.53 9.91 10.71% 83.49 327.03 ########
ZBRA Zebra Technologies 161.89 -0.57 -0.35% 4694.81 57.79 55.51% -16.53 1675.91 ########
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc 45.16 1.3 2.96% 3522.48 6.79 17.70% 101.4 529.62 ########
BA Boeing Company 345.98 14.22 4.29% 3459.8 50.23 16.98% 142.2 502.3 ########
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd 183.1 3112.7 6.7 3.80% 113.9 Liquidated
SDS Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares 38.08 3160.64 1.59 4.36% 131.97 Liquidated
PSQ QQQ Short Proshares 30.35 2913.6 -1 -3.19% -96 Liquidated
SH S&P 500 Short Proshares 28.09 -0.23 -0.81% 2893.27 -1.11 -3.80% -23.69 -114.33 ########
MA Mastercard Inc 203.6 3.36 1.68% 3054 3.13 1.56% 50.4 46.95 ########
FXF Swiss Franc Trust PS Currencyshares 93.98 -0.32 -0.34% 3007.36 -0.62 -0.66% -10.24 -19.84 ########
 Favored stocks Buy list (*=currently in strong momentum mode near highs)

*AAPL   Apple  : AAXN Axon : *ABT Abbott Labs : *AMZN  Amazon :  ACN –Accenture : ALGN Align tech :  *ADBE Adobe  :  *BEAT Biotelemtry : BA  Boeing  :  BOX  :  CBRE  Group :  *CNC  Centene : *CRM Salesforece :  CFR Frost  : *CONE Cyrus One : *COUP  Coupa Software :  *CSCO Cisco : DBX Drop Box : *DXCM Decom : DOCU Docusign :  *DPZ Dominoe’s  : ETE Energy Transfer  :  FSCT Forescout:  *Fortinet FTNT :  *GPN  Global Payments :  GOOGL   Alphabet  : *JKHY Jack Henry : *IDTI  Integrated Devices  :  *ISRG Intuitive Surgical  LNG Cheniere : MA  Mastercard   : * MKC Mccormick  : MMP Magellan Partners : *MDB MongoDB :  *MSFT Microsoft :  NOW  Service Now :  NFLX Netflix  : NTNX  Nutanix  : NEWR   New Relics  :  NVDA Nvidia   :  OLLI  Ollies :  PANW Palo Alto Networks :  PFPT ProofPoint  :  PYPL PayPal   :  *PLD  Prologis  :   PODD Insulet   : RHT RedHat   :  *SPOT Spotify  :  SPLK – Splunk  : *TDOC Teladoc : TLND Talend  : *TRS Trimas : *TWLO Twilio :  *UNH  United Healthcare  : *UNP – Union Pacific  : *V  Visa  :  *WP WorldPay  :  VMW   VMWare  : *WM Waste Mgmt’  :  *WDAY Workday  : WTFC  Wintrust fin’  : XPO Logistics : *ZBRA – Zebra Tech’ , *ZUO Zuora 

US Indexes – ETF’s:  *SPY :  QQQ  :  XLK  :  IWR  : XLE  :  KRE  : PEJ : DCT  Industrial Trust

                  ::: When using Short hedges:=SH (short for SPY) : PSQ (short for QQQ)

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Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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