Inflation Scares Investors, but Briefly

04-11-24  The 1st 6 to 8 weeks this year witnessed a broad rally led by mega tech. The ensuing 6 to 8 weeks to date on various indices have been a sideways congestion without any serious overall correction. Technical indicators  were stuck at overbought levels in February & have moved back towards neutral. Full employment with higher wage growth has shifted inflation rates slightly higher over the past 3 months, greatly reducing the odds of Fed rate cuts this summer. Bonds prices tanked, but stocks  continue to correct by moving sideways. NVDA is still the canary to watch as it holds onto support in the mid 800’s (904 last). Investors are OK without rate cuts that imply a stronger economy – as long as there is no talk of rate “hikes”.  A 10 year yield headed to 5% should send short term shivers into stocks if this rate rise continues, but 4.5 to 4.6% appears to be key yield resistance to watch. April 22nd to May 12th has modest risk of another seasonal pullback in stocks that should be bought.

03-29-24   Buyers are waiting in the wings for the overdue correction, which reduces the odds of a correction. To satisfy the seasonal bias, we would like the overbought condition to remain for another 2 to 3 weeks before a >4% decline in SP 500 Index. When a real decline occurs, traders should not expect a gentle 4 to7% pullback & then right back to record highs. This type of market – like 2017 – is unlikely to correct until its ready to fall lower for longer than most expect.

03-20-24  When Boeing fell from the sky 4 years ago – literally & figuratively – it seemed obvious this part of the global airplane duopoly would return to the skies within a couple of years. We have certainly been fooled holding onto this black mark in our portfolio only to be hit with another epidmeic of new mishaps & total change in leadership to overhaul this inept aerospace giant. Can there really be any more BAD news for this stock?  Price action has been holding up since the 177 low on March 18th. This is a $300+ stock “someday” & until it closes below 177, we will assume the worst is behind it, even if the big upside gains don’t manifest for another year or so.

03-13-24   The Dow peak is still Feb’ 23rd; the Nasdaq peak is March 1st & the SP is March 12th. So the market has stalled, but until AI related stocks, led by NVDA break down, the market will remain near their highs as well. Our ideal Seasonal window of weakness ends around March 22nd. Sideline cash is waiting to buy pulbacks.

02-24-24 NVDA did indeed provide the upside surprise few expected. Market is looking tired short term, but correction potential into mid to late March low appears modest. SPY resistance is still in the 520 range. 

02-20-24  Until NVDA buyers stop climbing on board the AI train, it’s hard to see meaningful correction in the markets >5%. NVDA reports after close on the 21st & while it’s priced for perfection, nobody should be surprised if they are the Patrick Mahome of the game once again with an UPSIDE surprise.

01-31-24   There is time for another run higher into mid-Feb’ before a deeper low due late March. Seasonal pattern indicates there is risk of Bond price topping soon.

{Follow model portfolio table & favored stocks below  & review archive of past daily commentary}


Model Portfolio Tracker:

2024 KDelta Hypothetical Portfolio ($100,000 Starting value 01-02-2024: rolled 2023 postions to open 01-02-24 )

 YTD:04-11-2024 : 74% invested : YTD Profit ExecSpec = +9.1%% :: SP 500 Index = +9.8%; Nasdaq = +10.7%; Dow=+2.2%; Russell 2000= +1.3%; 

Current 2024 portfolio below with recent exits:

*Gains include Cash holdings Money Market interest = $388 YTD : +5.2% money market rate/one month T-Bill

Symbol Name Action Qty Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Last Total Chg Total %Chg Total Profit
IWF Russell 1000 Growth Ishares ETF Buy 9 4/11/2024 335 337.68 2.68 0.80% 24.12
BA Boeing Company Buy 20 1/2/2024 257.28 4/10/2024 176.88 -80.4 -31.25% -1608
CELH Celsius Holdings Inc Buy 35 2/26/2024 64 81.59 17.59 27.48% 615.65
PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc Buy 13 2/22/2024 265 284.75 19.75 7.45% 256.75
NVDA Nvidia Corp Buy 4 2/21/2024 669 901.4 232.4 34.74% 929.6
ALGN Align Technology Buy 15 1/29/2024 263.29 324.81 61.52 23.37% 922.8
MNST Monster Beverage Cp Buy 120 1/2/2024 57.52 54.86 -2.66 -4.62% -319.2
CRWD Crowdstrike Holdings Inc Buy 36 1/2/2024 251.47 316.62 65.15 25.91% 2345.4
ADUS Addus Homecare Corp Buy 52 1/2/2024 92.64 99.27 6.63 7.16% 344.76
DHR Danaher Corp Buy 33 1/2/2024 229.86 245.28 15.42 6.71% 508.86
LLY Eli Lilly and Company Buy 13 1/2/2024 580.41 759.36 178.95 30.83% 2326.35
META Meta Platforms Inc Buy 12 1/2/2024 351.3 522.59 171.29 48.76% 2055.48
PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc Buy 16 1/2/2024 291.94 284.75 -7.19 -2.46% -115.04
SCHW The Charles Schwab Corp Buy 64 1/2/2024 68.12 70.96 2.84 4.17% 181.76
RLI Rli Corp Buy 30 1/2/2024 134.1 138.75 4.65 3.47% 139.5
TLT 20+ Year Treas Bond Ishares ETF Buy 41 1/2/2024 97.9 1/31/2024 96.69 -1.21 -1.24% -49.61
POST Post Holdings Inc Buy 48 1/2/2024 88 1/31/2024 94 6 6.82% 288
INTC Intel Corp Buy 90 1/19/2024 47 1/31/2024 43.54 -3.46 -7.36% -311.4
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc Buy 85 1/2/2024 50.4 1/31/2024 51.29 0.89 1.77% 75.65
HEI Heico Corp Buy 35 1/2/2024 178.19 1/31/2024 180 1.81 1.02% 63.35

(continued highlights/track record from above of past forecast updates correctly foretelling market action)

2023 KDelta ExecSpec Results=+19.6%

11-14-23   Peak interest rate hiking = new Bond Bull market. Bullish for stocks. 

11-07-23   7 straight days higher in stocks is normally good omen longer term. Higher prices due until early December. 

10-24-23    Important technical indicators are now most oversold since Oct’ 2022 Bear market lows. 

09-21-23  Our forecasted rebound top arrived as forecast on Sept 14th/15th at 4410’s SPX. August-September correction continues as forecast with the first potential timing for a low due next week ~ 29th.  Q4 rally due to begin in October. 

09-13-23   Sept’ seasonal peak in SP 500 due 14th-19th. Back under SP 4500 hints that Sept downtrend has resumed.

09-02-23   Weakness due early next week & can be bought for potential gains into mid-Sept.

08-30-23  August 25th low projection in our last newsletter chart did coincide with the August low… seasonal upside could last into mid Sept before more pronounced weakness returns 2nd half Sept. Still a Bull market. 

08-16-23   Spot SP 500 Index prior low of 4328 is the next target. From August 18th … we expect Buy signal & plan to increase stock positions. Some risk into October  

08-06-23  Lows for investors are due late August/early September and again in October. Shorter term traders may expect … SP… corrective action below 4400 SP 

07-28-23   Ideally stocks were due to peak today, but further testing of the low 4600’s September SP is possible into an inflection date on or before August 1st.

07-19-23   In April, when we proposed a maximum target zone in the 4600’s for a Summer rally high …  Seasonality favors major indices topping over the next few weeks: ideally near July 19th/21st, 28th or even early August. We expect a decent 5 to 8% correction 

06-16-23    The A.I. Nvidia tech Bull market continues to widen the spread between average stocks that are up 4% and a dozen or so large tech companies up 30 to 100+% that outweigh most stock indices. The way these panics work usually is the sudden price surges will keep a growing layers of pent-up buying power under the market to buy the dips. We expect Apple to test the $3 trillion valuation in the low 190’s& NVDA the 465 – 480 zone.   

05-30-23   NVDA rally over AI exploded last week, furthering the extremely narrow leadership with mega cap tech vs the rest of the market. NVDA can keep tech in rally mode as pent up Buyer demand awaits a pullback. Debt ceiling should pass officially next week.  

04-28-23     Apr 28th as well as May 3rd/4th were ideal dates for short term peak in an ongoing uptrend. There is still a decline due into 2nd week of May

04-19-23   Low due near May 12th

04-11-23    We have targeted an initial top in late April.  Pullback low due by mid-May.

03-31-23    Rally into at least mid-April. SP 500 Index – headed for our primary targets of testing 4200 on the cash SP (SPX) .

03-21-23   Market resilience has been strong during a month of bad news. Market sell-offs are likely to be bought at some point this week as we move into a more positive seasonality over the next 3 to 4 weeks. We will Buy dips in March as long as recent lows hold.

03-16-23   In just over a week the stock market has endured a Hawkish Fed adamant about the need to raise rates higher than expected, and higher than expected inflation data, a US banking crisis as well as a European banking panic, yet indices are holding up.  Banks are recovering and investors more enthused after the Fed injected a whopping $300 Billion into the financial system this past week. … mid to late April trading top expected.

03-02-23 Mid Feb’ forecasted peak to an expected March low has just tested our first support in SP 3930’s. Lows in March are ideally 13-17th/ & 23rd.  If lows hold the 3800’s, then rally to mid to late April could be strong. GDP cycle lows have always been Q4 this year through Q2 2024 in our model : SP 500 Index upper 3800’s = support.

02-21-23  Final closing high was on Feb’ 15th as forecast with strong correction potential still into mid-March. Downside to 3930’s 1st target  

02-07-23  Expected rally to mid Feb materialized quicker than expected. Added stocks to portfolio on Fed conference today for an expected final run to Feb 15th peak before increasingly serious correction evolves into a March low. 

01-30-23  Final upside SP target = upper 4100’s to just over 4200 (*High was 4208)

01-26-23   Short term January top arrived mid Jan’, but Primary trend remains higher into mid-February. The big test is expected pullback culminating in March. 

01-18-23  SP topped on 18th as forecast in our target zone above 4000.  We may have another leg higher into mid-Feb before a more serious market decline begins

01-11-23   SP 500 Index is now in our forecasted time & price window we have frequently shared, upper 3900’s to 4060. 

01-06-23  The 2+ week trading range appears to be breaking out higher as forecast.  SP 500 Index still has ideal target near 4000 with the time window being Jan’ 12th & 18th.

01-02-23  We remain with bias to upside in the stock market into mid-January

Final ExecSpec portfolio results 2022: Profit $3,700= +3.7%  

12-23-22  Growing consensus for new lows will be a contrarian element that could be a factor if new lows can be avoided through Q1. : Lower Dollar in January should be supportive of Ags, Metals and Oil.

12-15-22   Critical support of 3800 SP.  Short term low due 21st, where we will expect short term oversold readings & a bounce. 

12-14-22   Next week should see downward pressure into Christmas.  We are raising cash here. 

12-08-22  Short term oversold readings have created a brief rally phase into early next week on seasonality and China opening hopes.

12-02-22   Our topping phase has begun for December with pullback to the 3900’s next week.

11-25-22  Stocks getting frothy. Ideal timing Dec 2nd top, but overbought on any new highs short term. Too many expecting strong December

11-01-22  Rally into the election & then after CPI report on 10th.

10-31-22  The SP rallied to forecasted resistance for October in the upper 3800’s. Rally should have further to go (3950-4150)   Raising cash & hedging longs becomes more advisable as we move through November > 4000 SP. 

10-18-22    Upper 3800’s SP is ideal October resistance. Pullback risk in the final week of October around the 28th. Rally phase into election day & a November climax if GOP takes Congress followed by Sell the News profit taking. 

10-11-22   We still lean to the Bullish side as we retest the June 2022 lows. RSI or Relative Strength Index is showing positive divergence. High Yield Bonds hint a turn up in stocks by 13th. 

10-09-22  The current deep retracement may opens up potential for new lows. Technical condition is still positive if 3500 SP holds. 

09-30-22    Many indicators reached oversold conditions just as we enter the heart of our 2 week window ending Oct’ 13th where a medium term low similar to June may be occurring. With indices closing “on” their lows of the year today it would be rational to expect further slippage into the 3570 zone basis SP 500 Index. Option sentiment favors an important 3rd Qtr LOW this week – possibly Oct’ 3rd. 

09-25-22   SP 3400 to low 3600’s remain the range to watch for an important Low. Further weakness ending near Oct 10th in 3500’s to 3630 range.  Oct low sets up rally into November before sharp downside risk rises.: Oil heading to expected targets in low to mid $70’s – then a rally phase 

09-13-22    October could be a strong period to increase equity exposure if testing lower 3600’s SP or lower.

09-07-22  Short term Bullish signals & seasonal favor rally into low to mid 4100’s SP, but weaker prices expected by late Sept’

08-31-22  Oversold and due for a relief rally soon, yet we still expect more downside into late Sept to early November for a major low.

08-10-22    stock sentiment is quickly moving to overbought levels.

07-29-22  SP top due in the  4200’s (200 day moving avg near 4320).  We are using this rally to exit some positions .

07-27-22   We achieved our minimum target over 4000 on SP 500 Index & see potential for a  bit over 4100 with final top due in August. 

07-21-22   another rally > 4100 into an important August peak. 

07-19-22     Rally into August appears to have been confirmed today

07-15-22   we have a positive news response syndrome supporting the current summer relief rally.  SP between 4,000 and 4,300 in August is target range before  prices fall once again. 

06-30-22  Thus far, the stock market bottomed near mid June as expected, with extreme oversold signals. Seasonal trends favor further gains through mid July or later, but today’s low in the 3740’s basis the SP 500 Index needs to hold. Below 3700 implies that new lows under 3639 are likely with a target window between 3300 – 3450.  Once the market expects an eventual pause in Fed rate hikes – due to a sharp drop in inflation – then a much stronger equity rally will ensue. One of the early clues will be Oil. Once WTI Crude falls under the $87 to $91 support window, we can begin to expect new CPI reports that will please the market & buoy the Fed.

06-25-22  Stock market just rallied 7 to 10% on the major indcies from intraday lows on the 17th – yet still 18 to 27% lower from peak. Some of the inflation rollover we see in June is coming from China’s lockdown which hurts Copper. US and Chinese stocks should have more upside into late July or August, where we intend to raise cash (& hedge with inverse ETF’s for traders). Short term resistance this week is the low 3900’s and support near 3700 basis SP 500 Index.

06-20-22  .75% hike hike & market repriced lower. The Lows for the month have likely arrived at 3639 basis Sept’ SP 500 Index on the 16th and 17th, right on our 3640 support level of our previous update below. 

06-15-22  Fed rate hike decision day. We expect .75%. Market is due for a strong bounce. Ideal SP risk range is now 3640 to 4050

06-08-22   The stock market rebound from extreme oversold levels has stalled until the CPI report on 10th. If  CPI is> 8.3%,  stocks will sell off sharply & interest rates will hit new highs. A Low could extend into the 15th-17th if the CPI is over 8.3% 

06-05-22    Short term peak this week – low near 10th-13th.  SP 500 index > 4200 will be a zone to raise cash.

05-26-22   Rally phase due to peak around June 8th with more highs near 20 & 27th. 

05-19-23  SP 500 Index Low due May 19th to 23rd. While a rally is due, we still expect more pain ahead as fears shift from rate hikes to Recession. Use rallies to raise cash and stay away from Tech. Energy and Ags are due to peak and pull back, but sharp drops can be bought.

05-06-22  The April outlook for new lows after SP 4354 breaks did occur. When China is close to exiting its Recession caused by lockdowns then stocks will rebound sharply. Past history indicates a strong correlation with US GDP slowing a few months after China enters a strong contraction in its manufacturing and service sectors. Over the Short term we are looking for a low in Stocks & Bond prices around May 10th to 13th. 

04-01-22   SP 4300 to 4450 is the swing support zone that needs to hold for Bulls or else new lows <4000 will follow.

03-08-22   We are in 2 week window of ideal seasonal Low with high cash.

02-28-22  For now we stick with the Q1 forecast of bottoming action into the 2nd or 3rd week of March followed by an uptrend into April. 

02-21-22  Oil funadamentals globally remain quite Bullish. Our Q1 forecast regradless of Russia was for a January Stock correction, modest February rally and climax new low in 2nd or 3rd week of March.  A negative micro-economic sign would be if Apple trade below 159.20.

02-13-22   Junk Bonds warn of a stock market vulnerable to reaching new multi-month lows this quarter. Expect new lows by March. 

02-05-22  We are in a trading range that requires either a new oversold reading from new market lows (3800s-3900s) to Buy more or a breakout into the mid 4600s, which would likely indicate that the correction threat has passsed. We still favor a sideways to lower market with the low 4600s providing key resistance while we await March rate hikes. 

01-30-22  Oversold indicators during our first time and price window for a potential bottom favor at least a modest rally into the 4500s SP over the next 1 to 3 weeks, although risk of a further down wave prior to March Fed rate hikes is likely.

01-24-22  With the SP touching 12% lower, we needed this panic selling for a short term bottom. This is the time to finally use cash to invest in Energy, Financial, Travel & Industrial.

01-21-22    Our indicators say it requires a further panic to generate a zone to invest a large portion of excess cash. The market may have to wait until at least March when the 1st in a series of Fed rate hikes is expected to begin. A momentum low in stock indices should be near, but that will likley set up a  ~3 to 6% trading range well below the old highs.

01-20-22  Lower prices are likely over the next week...  

01-06-22  Any new test under SP 4660 quickly increases the odds of a further washout – perhpas as low as the 200 dma near 4400 on the SP 500 Index 

01-02-22  Stock indices rallied during the final week of 2021 on Seasonality trend, but due to roll over by mid-month. 

12-23-21  Stocks & Oil remain in sync on the upside breaking out to multi-week highs as the market could not ignore the Santa Claus sentiment. We expect new records in SP next week, then a short term pullback to reset, before pushing into the 4900s in January. Oil appears headed for $80.

12-21-21 Investors looked past the slower economic outlook to send stocks surging once again. The market has its sights set upon record highs over the next week.  A test of SP 4740 is possible within a few days & 4800s by early January. Max projections for January Seasonal top are in the upper 4900s at which point a crescendo of talk will focus upon 5000 in the SP 500 Index (500 SPY). Oil remains in sync with stocks with $73 likely within days & 78+ in January. 

12-15-21    Panic Bull mode?  Stocks fell to our key 4490’s support on 14th as forecasted.  Seasonal lows in stocks are due now (14th/15th).  : 

12-10-21   While Seasonal patterns favor some sideways to weaker price action between the 13th and Christmas (14th ideally), the trend to a record high over SP 4800 in January & possibly 5000 in Q1 is still possible. 4580 basis SP 500 Index is now the key short term support zone to keep this uptrend going.  Caution flags may wave stronger long term as we move into later part of 1st or 2nd quarter with a Fed Bond taper climax, but for now, new record highs are expected & dips toward 4600 or lower below there, can be bought. Oil in mid to upper $60 is major Support. 

12-08-21  Stocks & Oil should have short term peak soon with one last dip due before Christmas. Then record highs into January are due. 

12-05-21  SP hit support in 4490s just below 5% and 50 day moving avg’ supports as newsleter forecasted. 

12-01-21  Short term panic mode is back on with 4460 to 4500 as next target zone. Oil may be heading back towards our lower end of  December target.

11-28-21  Resistance on 29th is SP 4650s.  Morning of 29th is all about reversals of the huge Friday collpase, due to Covid variant fears being overhyped Friday. It will take a couple weeks to understand vaccine effectiveness and variant lethality, but Cases & Fear are likely to rise.

11-22-21  We were looking for a 4% drop into this week before a run higher. Today’s sharp reversal lower led by Tech triggered by rising rates & Cvoid worries could be the pullback we had expected. Hold off on Buying the dip until there is a further decline as we are down less than 2% thus far. : Currencies, Gold and Oil are due for short term low late this week. 

11-17-21  After 2 weeks of sideways price action within 2% of record highs, a setup for any 2 day dip could be short term buying opportunity for new highs into early December. : Oil is falling as recent Newsletter forecasted, setting up a Buy of PXD & USO when Jan’ Oil in $72 to $76/barrel zone. : 

11-11-21   The high we forecasted for Nov’ 8th arrived as expected leading to a mild correction so far of 2% – the minimum pullback we said to expect.  Stock market weakness may continue over the next week before one more upward thrust in anticipation of a Christmas.  Strong short term SP 500 support is in the upper 4500s to low 4600s with Dec’ target 4820s, assuming support holds. 

11-05-21  We expect a short term top in Stocks around the 8th with a high for the year near early December above 4800 on SP 500 Index. Correction risk is 2 to4% into the 12th to 19th time frame for investors to add to longs.

11-04-21   As our updates have expected, new record highs into early November continue with Oil falling.  

10-26-21    Further gains due in November

10-21-21  Buyable low next week, followed by another surge to higher highs into Nov 8th to 12th week. Energy seasonal is down

10-14-21  Late October could set up breakout to record highs again in November. 

10-11-21   Overblown stagflation fears pushing stocks lower. Breakout rally starting by month’s end.  Oil due for top soon $81 – $85

10-05-21  Sharp one day rally has just as quickly reversed  lower. SP 4260 – 4300 support will collapse if testing of that range continues. Breakdown under 4260s targets 4080 to 4150s zone. A rally over 4380 supports a coupe weeks of stable to higher prices

10-01-21   Stocks fell to a sharp new low today at 6% correction levels SP. Trading range action preferred until late October.  A larger rally in November is likely if stocks remain in a trading range or lower during October. SP 500 Index 4290s.

09-28-21   Rate rise fear hits Tech stocks in favor of reopening plays. Our favored Sept/Oct correction phase is still valid. A test under the 4294 low of the 22nd is likely this week. Ideal is sideways prices after an early October Low with risk of final Low in late October. Russell & Dow indices now have leadership. 

09-20-21  The markets fell 3% intraday, reaching 5% correction lows. As our newsletter mentioned, today was a short term climax low. 

09-13-21   Seasonal weakness & a variety of Sell indications should continue to be a risk for lower with the next key zone in the upper 4300s SP.

09-02-21  We are precisely in the time and price window Top for the SP 500 Index forecasted: looking for 4540’s peak by end of the 3rd. We favor a breakdown over the next week. 

08-29-21  A short term peak Sept 3rd is likely later this week with new highs in 4540s. Late Spt’ to late Oct’ remains a high risk for seasonal weakness in prices.

08-24-21   Further strength into month end before another correction phase becomes high odds by Sep’ 6th. Serious correction in Sept/Oct’ are highest seasonal odds of the year

08-19-21  We have our 3rd decisive down day. Short term low due over next few days before rally into early Sept’. Emerging Market stocks and Value/Small Cap stocks still await clarity on Covid Delta wave ending so Dollar can head lower. (Short term $ top due over next couple days)

08-18-21   Today is Day 2 confirmation of our short term Sell forecast. Sep’ SP 4375  is 1st support. With so many wanting a pullback to Buy, we are watching for the brief 3% pullback here. A minor Low due Aug’ 19th to 23rd. Larger correction Low due late Sept’ to late Oct’.

08-12-21  … negative mometum divergence indicates need for a pullback starting by Aug’ 16th to 18th for a 3+ day decline>3% before a bounce back up into early Sept’. Seasonal Lows often arrive between late Sept and late October, so be wary of a surprise correction to put more cash back into reopening and financial stocks on a deeper dive.  Too much money on sidelines waiting for a correction prevents serious drop until market is ready to capitulate into a lower for longer correction phase that has been absent since the Bull market began.  

07-28-21     No Fed taper keeps Bond yeilds low & postpones reopening stocks from surging. More news highs into 4400’s.

07-21-21  Ten Yr Bond yield fell to 1.12% as we expected on fears of Covid & new lockdowns, travel restrictions. Over 4370 targets  4430’s 

07-11-21  Stocks expected to continue to new highs into 2nd half July.  Bonds could fall to 1.20 even 1.12% soon.

07-01-21   Pain trade surpirse would be for Bond yields to actually fall further, so beware of the 10 Yr falling under 1.44% for signs of final Yield breakdown this summer.

06-21-21   With a strong seasonal up due in July, we would be adding more stock exposure late this week or early next on weakness.  

05-24-21  With the SP testing 4200 (1% below its record peak) we are moving more cash into stock for possible breakout to new highs ~4300 -4350. 

05-19-21  The consolidation phase since our targeted April to early May top continues, but should be ending over the next week. 

05-13-21  SP & Dow fell >4% at worst while Tech heavy Nasdaq dropped 8%, which confirms the cyclical selloff we had been looking for. 

04-29-21   A 4 to 6% market correction is due to begin soon if prices can’t continue to new highs soon.

04-27-21  one more surge to new highs this week is possible to SP 4220s – 4250s.

04-22-21    odds favor a quick run back to record highs next week. 

04-21-21    top due within the next couple of weeks.

04-13-21   Stocks are now entering our forecasted time and price zone of April in the upper 4100’s SP to consider raising cash & hedging. As can be seen by recent posts below, our outlook the past few weeks has been for a melt-up rally into an April peak, then a correction low in May.

04-11-21    One more window remains for a final rally into upper 4100s into late April.

04-07-21  Quiet Days Precede Breakout Days!  Still potential in April for upper 4100s.

04-06-21  SP 500 Index in the mid to upper 4100s could be a red flag for Bulls for a larger correction into May-June.

03-29-21  For now there is plenty of cash to drive stocks higher if Yields & Dollar pause or decline. 

03-25-21    SP 3920’s should confirm a solid short term low & then run to test record highs. Longer term Bull market is still ongoing.

03-24-21    June SP Back over 3920 favors another record high in SP. 

03-21-21    1.75% (10 Yr yield) is now the short term danger zone for stocks.   Looking for larger April/May top

02-26-21   Buy the Dips – Buy the Stimulus rumor remain the themes to watch. 

02-16-21  Readers know we have been looking for the mid 3900s as start of potential topping window. The Buy the Rumor mode continues to favor shallow corrections & more upside until Spring when Stimulus measures get passed. Would like to see 3900 hold to keep this short term uptrend going, but some sideways action in the 3900s is likely.

02-05-21  We favor very minor pullbacks as prices move to 3900s on SP. Oil likely to move even higher in February. 

01-07-20  Blue Senate sweep will move Dem party to pass higher spending agenda Q1 2021 = higher stocks. My forecast of SP in mid 3900’s 

12-23-20    Short term buying climax in Q1. Major selloffs (>12%) remain unlikely until economy begins to open near the Spring. If  Dems win the Senate on Jan’ 5th, then yet another Buying spree would send SP up to the 3900s. 

12-20-20   A move back to 3720s SP implies melt up on stimulus news underway with potential to mid-3800s.

12-17-20    Stimulus Bill will be passed before Christmas at which point stock indices will reach all time highs with modest correction risk .  

12-09-20   Larger corrections are welcome, but too many await >10% decline. Use 3% corrections from Index highs to begin adding to underinvested portfolios with goal of 50% exposure to non-Tech: small cap, cyclical, banks, emerging market & Travel/Leisure industry. 

12-01-20    Meltup to 3850s & 3950s is more likely if Stimulus is approved. 

11-17-20   If SP high on 16th @3638 is surpassed, then this rally could spike to 3850 to 3950. Big picture – Bullish. 

11-10-20  Pfizer vaccine success created investor shift out of Tech and into more beaten recovery stocks – Banks, Energy, Industrial.  

11-05-20   Despite the political quagmire, a test of Sept’ 2 all time highs >SP 3570 is likely soon. 

09-28-20   Current rally phase starting on 25th could reach the low 3400’s SP.  Any plunges into January should be bought.

09-16-20    Sept’ correction low due over the next week. 

09-11-20      QCOM & CRWD among top picks at mid-Sept low.

09-08-20     New lows near 17th are likely a Buy.

09-03-20   Our inflection date of 09-02-20 for a Top in SP 3500’s indeed turned out to be an important peak from which stocks – led by Tech – sold off sharply 3 to 5%. Our 09-01-20 newsletter also looked for a top with potential for SP 3200.  

09-01-20  SP  ideal high 09-02-20 with low after mid Sept’.

08-27-20  A climax rally this week before a strong correction. Sept’ SP  3535+ in early Sept’ may be setting up for a top (09-01 to 09-11). 

08-24-20  Next and perhaps last target potential over the next 2 weeks is 3540’s where we may hedge with inverse ETF’s for the downside. 

08-14-20   Apple testing record highs supporting market uptrend. An uptrend breaking out above all time highs of SP 3390’s should be favored. The market momentum is so overbought that most of the Bulls are short term Bearish fearing a correction, thus keeping sentiment from becoming overbought. 

08-12-20   With broad market (SP) now testing all time highs, the odds increase for this melt up climax to jump well above 3400. Above here targets  potential >3500. 

08-06-20   SP 3400+ odds increase within days. 

08-04-20  As long as AAPL, AMZN, MSFT…are hitting new highs the market remains confident of new records in the SP 500 Index 

08-03-20   Apple reached its 440s swing target zone. A rise to 467 is a magnet for a $2 Trillion market cap.  

07-30-20    Despite the altitude of Apple at 400, it’s still a Buy, along with housing related stocks.

06-28-20  Small investor pessimism implies selloffs will not be deep.  

06-11-20  Our June 5th inflection date turned out to be part of the topping process.  Stocks down 8% from highs this week, kicking off possible June correction we were looking for of 8%. Late June is the ideal pullback window. 

05-29-20   Odds increase for small cycle top on June SP near June 5.   Small investor sentiment surprisingly oversold   

05-26-20  Strong breakout today with markets peaking on the morning open. SP to 3050 is breakout target. Next week (June 5th) to upper 3100’s is current target zone. 

05-25-20   Watch for 3040’s over the next week.

05-21-20  A sudden move back to SP 2970 would likely augur well for another breakout targeting ~3050

05-18-20   SP busted through short term resistance in 2890’s. Trend is higher. SP’s main target would be low to mid-3100’s.

05-17-20   Over SP 2880’s – 90’s would turn the trend higher, headed for new highs >3000. 

04-30-20   The exceptionally strong stock market rally of the past 6 weeks may have peaked overnight on the 28th/29th @ SP 2965. 

04-29-20    Short term peak could be any day now. Option trader sentiment is overbought.

04-28-20     Over 2885  June SP=2970. 

04-13-20  Prices can work higher into mid-2900’s SP before a 10% from the peak into a May low.

04-12-20  We expect a selloff by 2nd half of May after an April peak. 

04-07-20   Great news on the falling Corona curve with falling cases throughout Europe & NYCity have given stocks a Bullish footing. : Oil: we expect lower Oil. 

04-05-20   We are encouraged to reduce cash and increase invested allocation to stocks on Tuesday 4-7-20.  We favor a  move to SP 2800

04-03-20   Stock indices are testing key short term resistance today: basis June futures, any move > SP 2530, NQ 7661 & 21,350 would imply a new short term leg higher of 2 to 6%. We will add a 10% QQQ’s on breakout

03-23-20   We expect the Virus to peak in April & effective COVID treatments to begin ramping by the Fall with gradual relaxing of economic constraints in May-June. Stocks will have bottomed in late March & stage a series of stair step rallies until the all clear is signaled in 2021.

03-18-20  We are in the middle innings of a medically mandated economic shutdown. Extremely negative data on economy and fatalities from COVID-19 will keep escalating in the weeks ahead. Helicopter money is coming, but stimulus will have limited longer term effect until virus fades.  We are targeting April for the start of the bottoming process – stay tuned. 

03-15-20  150% basis point cut in Fed Funds rate to zero over the last 11 days… This biologic panic requires a biologic measure to indicate the worst is over. The bad news has further to go, so expect ever more promises of monetary/fiscal stimulus in days ahead to stem the free fall in stock prices. 

03-13-20   We would keep some powder for the next rally failure phase & next leg to new lows.  : We suspect Oil in the mid $20’s is coming, which will help depress the stock market.

03-07-20  We continue to expect lower Oil & Stocks. Mid $30’s to mid  20’s Oil price is possible during this pandemic.

03-03-20   Oil may break $44 low on its way to a $30 handle or even 20’s. Stocks should head to new lows. Seems to be very little Monetary or Federal action that can stop this short term and Virus news certainly appears to still be in acceleration mode with general estimates that we need at least a couple months to witness a peak and Bullish reversal in this contagion. The question is when will the panic end – March, April or much later? April is our target.

03-02-20  Bond yields should head for sub 1% on 10 Year. : Oil hit our rebound 1st target in the 48.50’s area. We look to be a seller.

02-28-20    This correction continues to be a news reaction story from a growing contagion that clearly has more time left before a climax of bad news is reached. As we keep saying, it’s not the fear of death as much as the fear from a lock-down and negative sentiment that feeds on itself until the news improves.  While 15% lower in just one week with a virus scare that has not finished spreading, it implies there is more to come, perhaps well over 20% down. We rate the odds of a Fed rate cut in March at 100%. Area shutdowns, school closings , massive curtailment of travel and frequent quarantines have yet to hit the US, but they will. While we estimate the virus will continue to be bad news for stocks & the economy into April, we also estimate it will be improving “by” May with markets rising then in anticipation. Should the virus linger longer than normal, then the risk of a Recession and much deeper Bear market in stocks may occur. Watching for contagion peaks in S.Korea, Japan and Italy will provide key early warnings that the peak crisis in the US will be within a few weeks of beginning to reverse.

02-25-20   The 10 Year Treasury yields hit new record lows at 1.3% on worries of a new leg lower in the global economic slowdown that began in 2018. Oil testing important $50 support. We still suspect Oil is headed for the mid $44 along with lower stocks under 3000 on the SP 500 Index. 

02-24-20  News of Cornoavirus exploding in Italy with quarantines & business closures finally brought the markets to attention that this economic slowdown isn’t just indirectly from China, but spreading organically in the Western world among those with no contact to China. We still don’t think the loss of life will be as bad as the annual common flu from China that takes almost 500,000 lives a year, but the self imposed constraint on business and consumers will increasingly take a toll on global growth and stocks in the weeks ahead.

02-23-20  Sunday night gap down & move to 3280’s SP 500 Index confirms the overdue correction & our inflection point top due last week. Confidence now increases that we have begun the one to two month corrective phase. Look for 10 year Treasury yields to fall under record lows of 1.34%. Adding more downside hedges & raising cash. 

02-20-20  Stocks have had numerous reasons to panic lower throughout February on negative news & yet new record highs have been hit intraday in 10 of the past 11 days . On no news today new records were hit overnight & reversed lower, despite positive rear view mirror news from economic indicators.  Option sentiment is extreme & warrants selling.

02-17-20   Option sentiment is in the high danger zone along with being in the middle of our Time window given for a Top makes us sensitive to potential for a down-move trigger, even though our >3400 SP/ES ideal targets have not quite been reached. If downside picks up steam this week, then 21st/24th inflection flips to possible momentum move lower. 

02-14-20    While we entered a time window for a top this week, we continue to expect ideal short term top near the end of next week ~21st.  Record highs late next week may warrant raising cash & hedging for 10% downside.

02-11-20  Sentiment is once again approaching record Call buying, indicative of a short to medium term peak similar to January 17 to 24th. With option expiration on the 21st, we view that date as the the end of the time window for a February peak.  

02-04-20  Stocks have rallied stronger than we would expect this week. We have no insight to justify the strong overnight surge in stocks with new record highs in Tech indices (Nasdaq) since the Virus scare & risk of China & Global slowing remains high odds bet this month – yet market assumes no risk.

01-24-20  We have talked frequently of a Jan’ 24th top & with stocks and especially commodities like Oil and Copper falling hard, it appears our inflection date is a notable trading top. Stocks & commodities are selling off today on fears of a pandemic or slowing China due to Coronavirus.  Too many investors will be buying the break if prices fall, thus if SP breaks the 4% correction level) then odds increase that this market will drop further than most expect.

01-21-20  Despite a Global Virus scare stocks may run right back to new record highs as expected into our January 24th date. SP test of 3340 is the primary short term resistance levels to watch as we move into the end of the week. Even if stocks have another Bullish year, the current valuations should flatten the upward momentum and allow for some corrective action in February. Prices can continue higher than our target price and time window, but with Optimistic Sentiment measures and valuation metrics above 20 year highs, the upside action should become a bit heavy soon. (Boeing risk 250 to 290 continues to be the risk with a major lows due in 1st quarter, unless further delays beyond July are announced in the 1st Qtr’.)

01-15-20  We will keep  3340 as our key next level level where we look for topping action into the 24th.

01-13-20   Jan’  24th is inflection date where we become more cautious. SP now above 3290 which allows for a surge to 3340. : Stock market – raising cash & hedging short term  becomes a focus in the 2nd half of January (Jan’ 24).

01-11-20   Like 2016 – 2017 we may be entering the 2nd year of a recovery in stocks and 1st year of recovery in the economy. Economy is due to be in modest acceleration phase from a low in 1st half 2020 until late 2021. 2020 is year of earnings execution to justify major run higher in stocks in late 2019.   Look for 2 week corrections from new highs to buy. (Jan’ 24th)

01-09-20  Overnight our often repeated main breakout target of 3283 has now been hit. If 3300 breached then 3320 – 3340 are minor overshoot levels to watch. Hedges can start being entered in this 3283 – 3353 zone basis March SP. We still expect the market to stay in record territory into the Trade signing date on the 15th. For now we would expect modest 5% pullbacks when the short term top finally arrives. Economy and earnings are turning higher and the Bull market will continue into an 11th year. Watch Jan’ 24th & Feb’ 21st + or – a day turn dates.

01-05-20   The China trade signing will take place around the 15th which could create another inflection point or change of direction in stocks. Buying volatility as a hedge on rallies may be wise (VXX) in the upper 3200’s to lower 3300’s on SP. 

12-26-19  Medium term forecasts since summer called for end of July Top, an August correction and rally from October until a China Trade is signed or upper 3200’s SP is reached.  : Any news that newly discovered Boeing (BA) documents were harmful, sending stock under 320, may impact the overall market & economy if 737 Max approval is assumed delayed beyond 1st Qtr expectations.

12-23-19   We suspect a topping process around the assumed China – US trade deal signing ceremony in January. Seasonality supports stocks into mid January. Potential correction starting in January is currently estimated to be single digits % . Ideally SP will continue to our main target of 3280’s or higher before reversing into an overdue correction phase. Longer term we remain Bullish.

12-16-19   Further gains to  SP 3280’s by the time a trade deal signing ceremony occurs. 

12-12-19 It’s doubtful anyone expected a landslide vote for Brexit, a major Phase One Trade Deal with China and NAFTA II (USMCA) all being confirmed the same week. Add icing to the sentiment shift with the House failure to gain support on Impeachment as the tables now turn a 180. Stocks are already high & a short to medium term peak may be near, but longer term capital spending & GDP in the US and around the world may heat up in 2020 just when many were expecting a Recession. Should this economic turn occur – as we have postulated throughout the year – then optimism over a pro business Trump election may support markets more than normal.  

12-11-19  There was a less than Zero% chance the Fed would cut or raise rates this week & markets showed their disinterest just as they did regarding the Impeachment hearings. We favor no tariff hikes & higher stocks. 

12-05-19  … we continue to favor China deal remaining close enough to postpone the Trump tariffs. Look for…a short burst in stocks into year end –  to upper 3200’s if tariffs removed & agreement ready to sign.

11-16-19  SP broke out as Trump advisor Kudlow implied a Phase One deal with China merely required filling in the details.  

11-08-19   Ideal timing currently for signing a deal is prior to scheduled mid-December tariff hike. 

11-07-19     Disney finally vindicated our hold from 100 and the 130’s. Now DIS longs can be faded @ 140’s as streaming launch & Holiday movies may boost price even further, but competition is enormous & expensive.

11-03-19  Next swing target=3090 Dec’ S&P.  Year end potential = 3190’s Dec’ SP 500 Index.

10-28-19  The major stock indices broke to new record highs today for the 1st time in 3 months as expected in earlier posts.  Focus on China phase one signing should keep bids under stocks. 

10-25-19  Stocks have been boring, but as forecast stocks are ending the 2 to 3 month trading range with an upward bias as expected that could test record highs in October and reach further new highs before expected China Trade updates near mid-November. If Phase One Trade with China signed & Dec’ tariffs are removed, then allow a surge into upper 3100’s potentially as a global rebound would then begin being priced in. :::  Specific comment on stocks: Earnings are better than feared and the market continues to favor value and consumer orientation vs FANG and high flying tech. AMZN plunge to mid 1600’s should be a buying opportunity. Tesla has finally impressed us for the next qtr’. ALGN has resumed its growth trajectory. ServiceNow is unaffected by global slowing. Despite record competition in the entertainment at home space, DISney should make one more run higher into the Holiday viewing season as new service is launched where we would be paring back.

10-17-19   Stocks have an upward bias that should grow as we approach November 16th when US & China should sign phase 1 of Trade Deal. Testing record highs or modest push to new highs below 3100 SP is possible. Key focus after mid-Nov’ is status of mid-Dec’ Tariff hikes that Trump may postpone now that deal making is occurring for 1st time in this 2 year battle. Three news events will control markets over the next month: Brexit, Fed rate cut decision & potential Phase One US/China Trade Deal signing with hints about planned Dec’ tariff hikes in Nov’.

10-15-19   This rally should continue… Short term Oil price action will continue to influence stocks. Any removal of China tariffs will trigger a significant breakout higher in stocks and commodities as anticipation of a 2020 global rebound will start adding premium to current valuations. Until then trading range mentality rules with only minor breakouts possible.

10-03-19  Indicators showing weakest economy in 3 to 4 years signals to us that  0.5% to 1.8%  GDP  Qtr’s are likely 2nd half of 2019 into early 2020 and an annual GDP rate falling below 2% before turning back higher in 2020. Unfortunately a China Trade Deal appears to be the only economic catalyst on the horizon. 

09-27-19  We remain in 2 to 3 month corrective period forecast at the end of July.  Tech remains out of favor while consumer staple stocks have taken charge.

09-25-19  Our 13th-16th top in 3020’s defined the short term top expected. Market pulled back as expected & has begun a rally we forecasted into late September as October Trade Talks near. Any SP move late Sept’ above 3026 would then create potential for 3090’s in October. Leadership in this market is weak and approaching October seasonality can create some strong 2 way action. Any SP move back under 2955 may lead to short term capitulation under 2900. A move in Oil to support near $53 – $54 over the next week should bring stocks lower. 

09-13-19  Our 3026 target was almost reached today. The benchmark SP 500 Index entered the short term topping zone due prior to next weeks Fed rate cut due on September 18th. After a setback surrounding the rate cut, stocks may rebound to stay near record levels until Trade talks occur in October. : The shift from successful fast growing tech to value stocks continues. Stocks that performed well this week should remain in favor after a decline and those that fell from record levels this week without a significant rebound should be shunned.

09-11-19  Our SP next zone at 3026 expected this week. Short term top continues to look like 13th – 16th. Major portfolio sentiment shift after Bullish China tariff talk led to mass selling of high flying tech winners.

09-05-18  Quite the quick forecast fulfillment: The SP topped near 2940 with quick pullback followed by a final test of 2940 that we warned would trigger a breakout to 3000. SP 3004 is the ideal target by 16th, with more potential if Oil above $58.  

08-30-19   Any new move to upper 2940’s increases odds quickly of an upside breakout back above 3000

08-08-19  SP 2850’s is this weeks downside risk.  Economy will continue to slow to < 2% GDP growth & flight to safety & lower yields should continue.

08-05-19  Our 8% correction zone minimum has already been hit after after just over 3 down days with the overnight SP hitting 2776. Our August – October bottoming zone currently looks like an 8 to 14% max’ correction. 

08-03-19   July proved to be the Buy the Rumor, Sell the News action for stocks as the Sept’ SP 500 Index sold off to 2900 area.   ::: While the industrial economy is edging into contraction & should stay down most of this year, no overall recession is expected. Economic cycle low mid-2019 to early 2020 & next cycle top in GDP in 2021 before trouble starts brewing once again as in 2018’s GDP top, but with a deeper US downturn potentially in 2022.

07-27-19    It’s late July with SP at 3024  …Higher prices into our zone this week would allow for a corrective phase most of August. : Add short hedge VXX up to 5% portfolio if Sep’ SP >3020;.

07-12-19    Uptrend into late July into SP 3020 to 3050 zone still ideal for potential top.

(more past track record forecast commentary below our Favorite stock list)

07-02-19  Stocks are moving to new records each day. SP 3000 – 3020’s next upside target zone. While all of July looks supportive for stocks and sentiment gauges are not even close to overbought, we would be surprised to see gains above the 3020’s SP given the weak economic and earnings data we expect.

07-01-19  Stock indices: more record highs are likely with Fed cuts expected end of July, Bonds and stocks should have a floor preventing major declines for now.

06-30-19  Exuberant expectations of China and US trade talks reconvening along with expected end of July Fed rate cut are sending stocks surging to record highs in early July. SP 500 Index heading above 3,000 & Dow over 27,000. 

06-14-19   With assumption that Trump & Xi will talk Trade at G20 June 28th & Fed will cut rates, stocks remain in uptrend : 10 Yr’ still heading toward 2% yield or 128+ basis Sept’ 10 Yr Note, where Bonds & Stocks may reach a temp’ peak.

06-09-19   current trend in 10 Yr yields is toward 2%. 

06-03-19   Last week our target was June 3rd low at 2733.   2730 on June 3rd was the low before a monster short covering rally today on the news the Fed was open to a rate cut. This has placed a nice floor under the market preventing Trade War worries from tanking the market near term. We have talked of this corrective period as part of a trading range being carved out from 2700’s to 2900’s area. 

05-28-19     low due near June 3rd for a 7% correction.

05-21-19     Without a China Trade Agreement a broader trading range (2700’s – 2900’s) remains the best odds.

05-09-19   New Trump Tariffs without a hint of a deal being close will send stocks down sharply. : The high flyers we exited are amazingly still sitting at record highs after incredible gains this year –> WIX, SHOP, VEEV, DIS, GPN, OKTA,  TWLO… 

05-07-19   We have raised more cash. Our charts have been showing this decline with potential for 7 to 10% this month

04-30-19   Upper end of our short term target window is now being tested in the lower June S&P 2960’s .  

04-23-19   There is a feeling of climax in the air as many worry we are at an inflection area.  SP 2940’s to 2960’s remain our ideal topping zone to watch for.  : Exit DIS 140.

04-12-19  Fortunately we added Disney to the portfolio earlier this week. … : The S&P basis cash index targets 2950 area in coming weeks. 

04-10-19  … there is enough buying power to prevent any meaningful corrections near term.

04-05-19  Look for our forecast of record highs this summer to arrive in April. 

02-28-19   Still expecting record highs in all major indices by summer. Long term picture remains positive.   Stay with trend & use 3% corrections for more additions. 

02-25-19  SP reached our 2800 – 2832 intermediate topping zone today after Trump announced Sunday he would suspend the new China tariff deadline. Stocks then pulled back from the SP 2814 highs on Trumps tweets drove Oil prices down. As mentioned in our latest “In The News” section interview the other week, a new Trade Deal framework might be the classic Buy the Rumor Sell the News of an agreement. If Oil moves to new 2019 highs then stocks may start move to new 2019 highs again.  

02-15-19  Our bias has remained to the upside with stock indices just 5% from all time highs.  Max potential in Feb’ in 2830’s. Next time indices fall more than 2% will quickly increase odds of our first meaningful correction of the year.: Oil is tethered to stocks & we remain long looking for $56.50 area next week before a pullback and >$60 eventually.

02-12-19  Well our suspicion of minimal downside risk before March 1st was realized today as the ideal 3+% correction was only 2% and the SP did rise above the reversal level of 2730 hinting that this market has a floor of optimism over a trade deal and is unlikely to plunge. 

02-07-19 … should the SP regain the 2730’s and Oil move back over $54, we would assume the correction phase is not ready to begin … significant downside risk before the March 1st trade deal deadline seems very unlikely

02-01-19  Stocks …longer term 2019 target zone remains Bullish in the 2900 to 3100 SP 500 Index, assuming no tariff war escalation. 

01-30-19   Impressive news response syndrome continues. Market confidence of a China Trade deal grows each week & is a major tailwind that will continue into February until China or the US publicize roadblocks. March SP 2730’s to 2740’s is the next target zone. The Feb’ pullback we expected may be elusive or a much higher low than many had hoped for.  

01-17-19   We have been expecting the obvious resistance in the low 2620’s SP to break .. No longer is this a market Selling Good News, but Buying Bad news.

01-14-19  Late January top short term should lead to a strong pullback into a Feb’ low where new buying is expected. Weak earnings & economy are “mostly” priced in. Short term trader Equity Call option buying indicates a ceiling on price with SP likely to stay under the low 2700’s in Jan’ & then fall into lower 2500’s in Feb’.

01-06-19    Further economic weakness is expected over the next few months when equity valuation risk should be mostly priced in. A test of record highs due this summer, assuming a positive trade deal in the 1st qtr’.

12-26-18  Strong short term bottom is likely in with the spike low early today (12-26-18). $VIX close over 36 Monday implies a low of some importance has arrived

12-18-18  With the sharp drop in China Trade proxies of Aussie$, Copper & Crude Oil today…a reversal lower in stocks before Christmas would not be a surprise.

12-17-18   New 2018 lows breaking multi-month support hints of capitulation. We remain with heavy cash levels

12-07-18   After 3 tests of the 10% correction lows since the Oct’ 3rd peak our old adage hints this 4th test has higher odds of busting to new lows – new 2018 lows, perhaps as much as the 17 to 20% correction levels from the peak basis Dow & SP.  Need a VIX>35-50 for a stronger low. Now 73% in cash.

12-04-18  Mini panic underway …We are raising more cash … Need to await new oversold signals before putting cash back into stocks.  

12-03-18  China sensitive Soybeans and Copper heading down all day is a sign the markets fear the China Trade truce will fail. If SP 500 Index 2760 & Dow 25,538 are tested or broken this week, then the Trade relief rally is on hold & stocks will continue to work even lower … 

11-20-18  The Dow psychology is setting up quickly for a stock market … tradable December low despite more downgrades in 2019.

11-19-18  We are a net 39% long stocks … hopes of a Trade deal seem ripe for disappointment yet again. 

10-18-18   Like the Jan’ – Feb’ correction, stocks…now heading back to the lows or new lows …

10-04-18   Our end of September newsletter warned of an October pullback as the mid-term election nears.  

08-04-18   Dow rally … to continue to new multi-month highs over the next 3 weeks … S&P 2900 to 2910 is the ideal target in August. 

05-10-18    … we should expect rhetoric that keeps Oil prices edging higher (>$70). 

04-14-18   Oil has remained high as expected …We continue to like buying the dips into at least mid-May   

03-27-18    … we continue to favor Trump … pivoting to an aggressive focus on Iran (Higher Oil)

03-18-18    Use any new testing of 11 to 15% intraday correction level as new buying entry.

02-05-18    Look for an initial low this week.

02-03-18    For a couple of months we have discussed our forecast for the first real correction since Trump was elected is due during the 1st qtr’ 2018  from late January to late February.

01-23-18   A several month pause into the spring looks likely.  

11-14-17    serious corrections of 10% or more will hold off until the 1st quarter of 2018. 


Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————


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