Trump Withholds Harsh Action vs China: Relief for Stocks

May 29, 2020 KDelta Stocks No Comments
{emailed updates occur with changes to portfolio or when market prices diverge from previous forecasts}

05-29-20  Stocks paused awaiting Trump’s expected adverse actions vs China. Economically they were modest (no halt to trade deal or penalties on leaders/companies, yet) & prices rallied sharply into the close. Odds increase for targeted cycle top 3139 – 3159 on June SP next week (June 1 – 5), where we expect to Sell if reached. However, SP 2990 & 2965 are now key very short term supports, below which inverse ETFs (shorts) & cash may be added. : Sentiment still mixed with Small investor sentiment surprisingly oversold & Option trader sentiment overbought. Another sign of exuberance is that nearly every stock we follow on favored list is near multi-month highs, in need of a June consolidation.: April report showed an expected record drop in consumer spending, but conversely a record jump in consumer savings & income as pent up consumption grows when households finally “able” to leave home & spend.

05-28-20    Stocks reached our 1st breakout target today SP 3050, a couple days earlier than expected. China tensions will be heightened Friday the 28th. Without harsh actions stocks may resume their surge into next week in the 3100’s SP. 

05-26-20  Strong breakout today with markets peaking on the morning open. SP to 3050 is breakout target. Next week (June 1st to 5th) – mid 3100’s is current maximum target zone as stated on May 18th. Rise in Viral deaths or China – US escalation of tension continue to be the most likely threats to this rally for being vigilant.:New Home sales & mortgage applications surge above estimates as secular housing shortage remains despite short term Depression era unemployment. Federally mandated forbearance rises to prevent foreclosures and kicking residents to their parents basement.

05-25-20  The coiling sideways action of the past 4+ weeks has broken sharply higher over the Holiday weekend with the SP up almost 100 points from the Friday low, now testing 3,000. Watch for 3040’s over the next week.

05-21-20  A sudden move back to SP 2970 would likely augur well for another breakout targeting ~3050

05-19-20   We are getting the pause we talked of after touching new recovery highs. Tech continues supreme. Option sentiment says that stocks are very vulnerable to a 10% drop in the near future, but until SP 2880’s – 2910 breaks, we would stay with the uptrend, but with modest exposure.

05-18-20   SP busted through short term resistance in 2890’s. A pause near 2965 (previous high) would be normal, but the trend is higher until there is more than a 3% pullback: 2920’s-2930’s is short term support: under 2900 turns trend lower. SP’s main target would be low to mid-3100’s.

05-17-20   Over SP 2880’s – 90’s would turn the trend higher, headed for new highs >3000. 

{Follow model portfolio table & favored stocks below   :   Continued historical daily commentary below table & favored stocks}

Order GTCStock Price

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Model Portfolio Tracker:

2020 KDelta Portfolio ($100,000 Starting value 01-02-2020)

As of close 05-29-2020: YTD 2020: 33% invested :  Profit $26,733 =+26.7% : SP YTD P/(L) =-(5.9)%

Below: Current positions & recent month of Exited stocks

Symbol Name Action Qty Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Last Total Chg Total %Chg Profit Total Profit
ALGN Align Technology Buy 25 5/18/2020 218.9 245.62 26.72 12.21% -89 668
AMZN Amazon.com Inc Buy 2 5/18/2020 2390 2442.4 52.37 2.19% 82.54 104.74
ESNT Essent Group Ltd Buy 170 5/18/2020 28.58 33.05 4.47 15.64% -119 759.9
LOGI Logitech Int S.A. Buy 100 3/23/2020 41 59.44 18.44 44.98% 244 1844
MRVL Marvell Tech Group Buy 170 5/18/2020 26.9 32.62 5.72 21.26% 450.5 972.4
NFLX Netflix Inc Buy 10 5/6/2020 430 419.73 -10.27 -2.39% 62.9 -102.7
NSC Norfolk Southern Corp Buy 20 4/29/2020 174 178.29 4.29 2.47% -39.4 85.8
QCOM Qualcomm Inc Buy 65 5/29/2020 79 80.88 1.88 2.38% 122.2 122.2
WORK Slack Technologies Inc Buy 200 5/22/2020 31.4 35.05 3.65 11.62% 502 730
SCO Ultrashort DJ-UBS Crude Oil Proshares Buy 130 4/17/2020 30.4 4/23/2020 44.75 14.35 47.20% 1865.5
AMZN Amazon.com Inc Buy 1 1/30/2020 1872 4/28/2020 2371 499 26.66% 499
XLK S&P 500 Info Tech Sector SPDR Buy 55 4/29/2020 90 5/1/2020 90 unch unch 0
CRM Salesforce.com Inc Buy 25 5/8/2020 172.1 5/12/2020 183 10.9 6.33% 272.5
OKTA Okta Inc Cl A Buy 40 4/3/2020 118.9 5/12/2020 175 56.1 47.18% 2244
QQQ Nasdaq QQQ Invesco ETF Buy 20 5/8/2020 223.55 5/12/2020 227.48 3.93 1.76% 78.6
TDOC Teladoc Health Inc Buy 35 3/13/2020 123.55 5/18/2020 181 57.45 46.50% 2010.75
VEEV Veeva Systems Inc Buy 25 4/3/2020 150 5/18/2020 200 50 33.33% 1250
WIX Wix.com Ltd Buy 30 5/5/2020 132 5/18/2020 196 64 48.48% 1920
CRM Salesforce.com Inc Buy 25 5/6/2020 163 5/21/2020 175.3 12.3 7.55% 307.5
SPY S&P 500 SPDR Buy 30 5/18/2020 293.5 5/21/2020 294.9 1.4 0.48% 42

 *Favored momentum stocks near highs:   *AAPL Apple : *ADBE Adobe : *AKAM Akamai : *AMD Adv’Micro : *AMT Amer’Tower : *AMZN  Amazon :*ATVI Activision Blizzard  : *BOX  : *CONE Cyrusone :*COUP CoupaSoftware  *CRM Salesforece : *CRWD Crowdstrike : *DDOG DataDog :  *DG Dollar Gen’  : *DOCU Docusign  : *DHI DRHorton :  *FB Facebook : *FIVN FiveNine : *FISV Fiserve : *GOOGL : *HON Honeywell : *INVH Invitation Homes :*LOGI Logitech : *LOW Lowes :  *LPSN LivePerson :  *LVGO Livango Health : *MA Mastercard :  *MRVL Marvel : *MSFT Microsoft :  *NOW Service Now : *NSC Norfolk Southern : *NVDA Nvidia : *OKTA : *PANW Paulo Alto  :  *PLD Prologis : *PYPL PayPal : *QCOM Qualcom  : *RNG Ringcentral : *SPOT Spotify*SDGR Shrodenger : *SHOP Shopify *SMAR Smartsheet : *SPGI S&P Global : *SQ Square : *TEAM Atlassian : *TTD TradeDesk : *TSLA Tesla :  *TWLO Twilio : *UNP Union Pacific :  *UPWK UpWorks  :*VEEV  Veeva : *VRTX Veretex Pharma : *WDAY WorkDay :  *WIX Wix.com : *WORK Slack : *XPO logistics : *ZS ZScaler : *ZEN ZenDesk : *ZM Zoom

Bullpen Fav’s :       AMED Amedisys : DXCM Dexicom :  ESNT Essent Grp : JNJ Johnson Johnson : *FSLY Fastly : NFLX Netflix : TDOC Teledoc  : TGT Target  : TTWO Take 2 Interactive : WMT Walmart 

Speculative stocks extremely oversold value plays that will be at risk of sales under-performance when GDP recovery returns (high risk, high reward stocks):   UAL : BA :  MGM : SLB : MRO, PTEN


(continued highlights/track record from above of past forecast updates correctly foretelling market action)

2019: Profit=$24,070 =+24.5% : vs SP=+29.1%

04-30-20   The exceptionally strong stock market rally of the past 6 weeks may have peaked overnight on the 28th/29th @ SP 2965. 

04-29-20    Short term peak could be any day now. Option trader sentiment is overbought.

04-28-20     Over 2885  June SP=2970. 

04-13-20  Prices can work higher into mid-2900’s SP before a 10% from the peak into a May low.

04-12-20  We expect a selloff by 2nd half of May after an April peak. 

04-07-20   Great news on the falling Corona curve with falling cases throughout Europe & NYCity have given stocks a Bullish footing. : Oil: we expect lower Oil. 

04-05-20   We are encouraged to reduce cash and increase invested allocation to stocks on Tuesday 4-7-20.  We favor a  move to SP 2800

04-03-20   Stock indices are testing key short term resistance today: basis June futures, any move > SP 2530, NQ 7661 & 21,350 would imply a new short term leg higher of 2 to 6%. We will add a 10% QQQ’s on breakout

03-23-20   We expect the Virus to peak in April & effective COVID treatments to begin ramping by the Fall with gradual relaxing of economic constraints in May-June. Stocks will have bottomed in late March & stage a series of stair step rallies until the all clear is signaled in 2021.

03-18-20  We are in the middle innings of a medically mandated economic shutdown. Extremely negative data on economy and fatalities from COVID-19 will keep escalating in the weeks ahead. Helicopter money is coming, but stimulus will have limited longer term effect until virus fades.  We are targeting April for the start of the bottoming process – stay tuned. 

03-15-20  150% basis point cut in Fed Funds rate to zero over the last 11 days… This biologic panic requires a biologic measure to indicate the worst is over. The bad news has further to go, so expect ever more promises of monetary/fiscal stimulus in days ahead to stem the free fall in stock prices. 

03-13-20   We would keep some powder for the next rally failure phase & next leg to new lows.  : We suspect Oil in the mid $20’s is coming, which will help depress the stock market.

03-07-20  We continue to expect lower Oil & Stocks. Mid $30’s to mid  20’s Oil price is possible during this pandemic.

03-03-20   Oil may break $44 low on its way to a $30 handle or even 20’s. Stocks should head to new lows. Seems to be very little Monetary or Federal action that can stop this short term and Virus news certainly appears to still be in acceleration mode with general estimates that we need at least a couple months to witness a peak and Bullish reversal in this contagion. The question is when will the panic end – March, April or much later? April is our target.

03-02-20  Bond yields should head for sub 1% on 10 Year. : Oil hit our rebound 1st target in the 48.50’s area. We look to be a seller.

02-28-20    This correction continues to be a news reaction story from a growing contagion that clearly has more time left before a climax of bad news is reached. As we keep saying, it’s not the fear of death as much as the fear from a lock-down and negative sentiment that feeds on itself until the news improves.  While 15% lower in just one week with a virus scare that has not finished spreading, it implies there is more to come, perhaps well over 20% down. We rate the odds of a Fed rate cut in March at 100%. Area shutdowns, school closings , massive curtailment of travel and frequent quarantines have yet to hit the US, but they will. While we estimate the virus will continue to be bad news for stocks & the economy into April, we also estimate it will be improving “by” May with markets rising then in anticipation. Should the virus linger longer than normal, then the risk of a Recession and much deeper Bear market in stocks may occur. Watching for contagion peaks in S.Korea, Japan and Italy will provide key early warnings that the peak crisis in the US will be within a few weeks of beginning to reverse.

02-25-20   The 10 Year Treasury yields hit new record lows at 1.3% on worries of a new leg lower in the global economic slowdown that began in 2018. Oil testing important $50 support. We still suspect Oil is headed for the mid $44 along with lower stocks under 3000 on the SP 500 Index. 

02-24-20  News of Cornoavirus exploding in Italy with quarantines & business closures finally brought the markets to attention that this economic slowdown isn’t just indirectly from China, but spreading organically in the Western world among those with no contact to China. We still don’t think the loss of life will be as bad as the annual common flu from China that takes almost 500,000 lives a year, but the self imposed constraint on business and consumers will increasingly take a toll on global growth and stocks in the weeks ahead.

02-23-20  Sunday night gap down & move to 3280’s SP 500 Index confirms the overdue correction & our inflection point top due last week. Confidence now increases that we have begun the one to two month corrective phase. Look for 10 year Treasury yields to fall under record lows of 1.34%. Adding more downside hedges & raising cash. 

02-20-20  Stocks have had numerous reasons to panic lower throughout February on negative news & yet new record highs have been hit intraday in 10 of the past 11 days . On no news today new records were hit overnight & reversed lower, despite positive rear view mirror news from economic indicators.  Option sentiment is extreme & warrants selling.

02-17-20   Option sentiment is in the high danger zone along with being in the middle of our Time window given for a Top makes us sensitive to potential for a down-move trigger, even though our >3400 SP/ES ideal targets have not quite been reached. If downside picks up steam this week, then 21st/24th inflection flips to possible momentum move lower. 

02-14-20    While we entered a time window for a top this week, we continue to expect ideal short term top near the end of next week ~21st.  Record highs late next week may warrant raising cash & hedging for 10% downside.

02-11-20  Sentiment is once again approaching record Call buying, indicative of a short to medium term peak similar to January 17 to 24th. With option expiration on the 21st, we view that date as the the end of the time window for a February peak.  

02-04-20  Stocks have rallied stronger than we would expect this week. We have no insight to justify the strong overnight surge in stocks with new record highs in Tech indices (Nasdaq) since the Virus scare & risk of China & Global slowing remains high odds bet this month – yet market assumes no risk.

01-24-20  We have talked frequently of a Jan’ 24th top & with stocks and especially commodities like Oil and Copper falling hard, it appears our inflection date is a notable trading top. Stocks & commodities are selling off today on fears of a pandemic or slowing China due to Coronavirus.  Too many investors will be buying the break if prices fall, thus if SP breaks the 4% correction level) then odds increase that this market will drop further than most expect.

01-21-20  Despite a Global Virus scare stocks may run right back to new record highs as expected into our January 24th date. SP test of 3340 is the primary short term resistance levels to watch as we move into the end of the week. Even if stocks have another Bullish year, the current valuations should flatten the upward momentum and allow for some corrective action in February. Prices can continue higher than our target price and time window, but with Optimistic Sentiment measures and valuation metrics above 20 year highs, the upside action should become a bit heavy soon. (Boeing risk 250 to 290 continues to be the risk with a major lows due in 1st quarter, unless further delays beyond July are announced in the 1st Qtr’.)

01-15-20  We will keep  3340 as our key next level level where we look for topping action into the 24th.

01-13-20   Jan’  24th is inflection date where we become more cautious. SP now above 3290 which allows for a surge to 3340. : Stock market – raising cash & hedging short term  becomes a focus in the 2nd half of January (Jan’ 24).

01-11-20   Like 2016 – 2017 we may be entering the 2nd year of a recovery in stocks and 1st year of recovery in the economy. Economy is due to be in modest acceleration phase from a low in 1st half 2020 until late 2021. 2020 is year of earnings execution to justify major run higher in stocks in late 2019.   Look for 2 week corrections from new highs to buy. (Jan’ 24th)

01-09-20  Overnight our often repeated main breakout target of 3283 has now been hit. If 3300 breached then 3320 – 3340 are minor overshoot levels to watch. Hedges can start being entered in this 3283 – 3353 zone basis March SP. We still expect the market to stay in record territory into the Trade signing date on the 15th. For now we would expect modest 5% pullbacks when the short term top finally arrives. Economy and earnings are turning higher and the Bull market will continue into an 11th year. Watch Jan’ 24th & Feb’ 21st + or – a day turn dates.

01-05-20   The China trade signing will take place around the 15th which could create another inflection point or change of direction in stocks. Buying volatility as a hedge on rallies may be wise (VXX) in the upper 3200’s to lower 3300’s on SP. 

12-26-19  Medium term forecasts since summer called for end of July Top, an August correction and rally from October until a China Trade is signed or upper 3200’s SP is reached.  : Any news that newly discovered Boeing (BA) documents were harmful, sending stock under 320, may impact the overall market & economy if 737 Max approval is assumed delayed beyond 1st Qtr expectations.

12-23-19   We suspect a topping process around the assumed China – US trade deal signing ceremony in January. Seasonality supports stocks into mid January. Potential correction starting in January is currently estimated to be single digits % . Ideally SP will continue to our main target of 3280’s or higher before reversing into an overdue correction phase. Longer term we remain Bullish.

12-16-19   Further gains to  SP 3280’s by the time a trade deal signing ceremony occurs. 

12-12-19 It’s doubtful anyone expected a landslide vote for Brexit, a major Phase One Trade Deal with China and NAFTA II (USMCA) all being confirmed the same week. Add icing to the sentiment shift with the House failure to gain support on Impeachment as the tables now turn a 180. Stocks are already high & a short to medium term peak may be near, but longer term capital spending & GDP in the US and around the world may heat up in 2020 just when many were expecting a Recession. Should this economic turn occur – as we have postulated throughout the year – then optimism over a pro business Trump election may support markets more than normal.  

12-11-19  There was a less than Zero% chance the Fed would cut or raise rates this week & markets showed their disinterest just as they did regarding the Impeachment hearings. We favor no tariff hikes & higher stocks. 

12-05-19  … we continue to favor China deal remaining close enough to postpone the Trump tariffs. Look for…a short burst in stocks into year end –  to upper 3200’s if tariffs removed & agreement ready to sign.

11-16-19  SP broke out as Trump advisor Kudlow implied a Phase One deal with China merely required filling in the details.  

11-08-19   Ideal timing currently for signing a deal is prior to scheduled mid-December tariff hike. 

11-07-19     Disney finally vindicated our hold from 100 and the 130’s. Now DIS longs can be faded @ 140’s as streaming launch & Holiday movies may boost price even further, but competition is enormous & expensive.

11-03-19  Next swing target=3090 Dec’ S&P.  Year end potential = 3190’s Dec’ SP 500 Index.

10-28-19  The major stock indices broke to new record highs today for the 1st time in 3 months as expected in earlier posts.  Focus on China phase one signing should keep bids under stocks. 

10-25-19  Stocks have been boring, but as forecast stocks are ending the 2 to 3 month trading range with an upward bias as expected that could test record highs in October and reach further new highs before expected China Trade updates near mid-November. If Phase One Trade with China signed & Dec’ tariffs are removed, then allow a surge into upper 3100’s potentially as a global rebound would then begin being priced in. :::  Specific comment on stocks: Earnings are better than feared and the market continues to favor value and consumer orientation vs FANG and high flying tech. AMZN plunge to mid 1600’s should be a buying opportunity. Tesla has finally impressed us for the next qtr’. ALGN has resumed its growth trajectory. ServiceNow is unaffected by global slowing. Despite record competition in the entertainment at home space, DISney should make one more run higher into the Holiday viewing season as new service is launched where we would be paring back.

10-17-19   Stocks have an upward bias that should grow as we approach November 16th when US & China should sign phase 1 of Trade Deal. Testing record highs or modest push to new highs below 3100 SP is possible. Key focus after mid-Nov’ is status of mid-Dec’ Tariff hikes that Trump may postpone now that deal making is occurring for 1st time in this 2 year battle. Three news events will control markets over the next month: Brexit, Fed rate cut decision & potential Phase One US/China Trade Deal signing with hints about planned Dec’ tariff hikes in Nov’.

10-15-19   This rally should continue… Short term Oil price action will continue to influence stocks. Any removal of China tariffs will trigger a significant breakout higher in stocks and commodities as anticipation of a 2020 global rebound will start adding premium to current valuations. Until then trading range mentality rules with only minor breakouts possible.

10-03-19  Indicators showing weakest economy in 3 to 4 years signals to us that  0.5% to 1.8%  GDP  Qtr’s are likely 2nd half of 2019 into early 2020 and an annual GDP rate falling below 2% before turning back higher in 2020. Unfortunately a China Trade Deal appears to be the only economic catalyst on the horizon. 

09-27-19  We remain in 2 to 3 month corrective period forecast at the end of July.  Tech remains out of favor while consumer staple stocks have taken charge.

09-25-19  Our 13th-16th top in 3020’s defined the short term top expected. Market pulled back as expected & has begun a rally we forecasted into late September as October Trade Talks near. Any SP move late Sept’ above 3026 would then create potential for 3090’s in October. Leadership in this market is weak and approaching October seasonality can create some strong 2 way action. Any SP move back under 2955 may lead to short term capitulation under 2900. A move in Oil to support near $53 – $54 over the next week should bring stocks lower. 

09-13-19  Our 3026 target was almost reached today. The benchmark SP 500 Index entered the short term topping zone due prior to next weeks Fed rate cut due on September 18th. After a setback surrounding the rate cut, stocks may rebound to stay near record levels until Trade talks occur in October. : The shift from successful fast growing tech to value stocks continues. Stocks that performed well this week should remain in favor after a decline and those that fell from record levels this week without a significant rebound should be shunned.

09-11-19  Our SP next zone at 3026 expected this week. Short term top continues to look like 13th – 16th. Major portfolio sentiment shift after Bullish China tariff talk led to mass selling of high flying tech winners.

09-05-18  Quite the quick forecast fulfillment: The SP topped near 2940 with quick pullback followed by a final test of 2940 that we warned would trigger a breakout to 3000. SP 3004 is the ideal target by 16th, with more potential if Oil above $58.  

08-30-19   Any new move to upper 2940’s increases odds quickly of an upside breakout back above 3000

08-08-19  SP 2850’s is this weeks downside risk.  Economy will continue to slow to < 2% GDP growth & flight to safety & lower yields should continue.

08-05-19  Our 8% correction zone minimum has already been hit after after just over 3 down days with the overnight SP hitting 2776. Our August – October bottoming zone currently looks like an 8 to 14% max’ correction. 

08-03-19   July proved to be the Buy the Rumor, Sell the News action for stocks as the Sept’ SP 500 Index sold off to 2900 area.   ::: While the industrial economy is edging into contraction & should stay down most of this year, no overall recession is expected. Economic cycle low mid-2019 to early 2020 & next cycle top in GDP in 2021 before trouble starts brewing once again as in 2018’s GDP top, but with a deeper US downturn potentially in 2022.

07-27-19    It’s late July with SP at 3024  …Higher prices into our zone this week would allow for a corrective phase most of August. : Add short hedge VXX up to 5% portfolio if Sep’ SP >3020;.

07-12-19    Uptrend into late July into SP 3020 to 3050 zone still ideal for potential top.

(more past track record forecast commentary below our Favorite stock list)

07-02-19  Stocks are moving to new records each day. SP 3000 – 3020’s next upside target zone. While all of July looks supportive for stocks and sentiment gauges are not even close to overbought, we would be surprised to see gains above the 3020’s SP given the weak economic and earnings data we expect.

07-01-19  Stock indices: more record highs are likely with Fed cuts expected end of July, Bonds and stocks should have a floor preventing major declines for now.

06-30-19  Exuberant expectations of China and US trade talks reconvening along with expected end of July Fed rate cut are sending stocks surging to record highs in early July. SP 500 Index heading above 3,000 & Dow over 27,000. 

06-14-19   With assumption that Trump & Xi will talk Trade at G20 June 28th & Fed will cut rates, stocks remain in uptrend : 10 Yr’ still heading toward 2% yield or 128+ basis Sept’ 10 Yr Note, where Bonds & Stocks may reach a temp’ peak.

06-09-19   current trend in 10 Yr yields is toward 2%. 

06-03-19   Last week our target was June 3rd low at 2733.   2730 on June 3rd was the low before a monster short covering rally today on the news the Fed was open to a rate cut. This has placed a nice floor under the market preventing Trade War worries from tanking the market near term. We have talked of this corrective period as part of a trading range being carved out from 2700’s to 2900’s area. 

05-28-19     low due near June 3rd for a 7% correction.

05-21-19     Without a China Trade Agreement a broader trading range (2700’s – 2900’s) remains the best odds.

05-09-19   New Trump Tariffs without a hint of a deal being close will send stocks down sharply. : The high flyers we exited are amazingly still sitting at record highs after incredible gains this year –> WIX, SHOP, VEEV, DIS, GPN, OKTA,  TWLO… 

05-07-19   We have raised more cash. Our charts have been showing this decline with potential for 7 to 10% this month

04-30-19   Upper end of our short term target window is now being tested in the lower June S&P 2960’s .  

04-23-19   There is a feeling of climax in the air as many worry we are at an inflection area.  SP 2940’s to 2960’s remain our ideal topping zone to watch for.  : Exit DIS 140.

04-12-19  Fortunately we added Disney to the portfolio earlier this week. … : The S&P basis cash index targets 2950 area in coming weeks. 

04-10-19  … there is enough buying power to prevent any meaningful corrections near term.

04-05-19  Look for our forecast of record highs this summer to arrive in April. 

02-28-19   Still expecting record highs in all major indices by summer. Long term picture remains positive.   Stay with trend & use 3% corrections for more additions. 

02-25-19  SP reached our 2800 – 2832 intermediate topping zone today after Trump announced Sunday he would suspend the new China tariff deadline. Stocks then pulled back from the SP 2814 highs on Trumps tweets drove Oil prices down. As mentioned in our latest “In The News” section interview the other week, a new Trade Deal framework might be the classic Buy the Rumor Sell the News of an agreement. If Oil moves to new 2019 highs then stocks may start move to new 2019 highs again.  

02-15-19  Our bias has remained to the upside with stock indices just 5% from all time highs.  Max potential in Feb’ in 2830’s. Next time indices fall more than 2% will quickly increase odds of our first meaningful correction of the year.: Oil is tethered to stocks & we remain long looking for $56.50 area next week before a pullback and >$60 eventually.

02-12-19  Well our suspicion of minimal downside risk before March 1st was realized today as the ideal 3+% correction was only 2% and the SP did rise above the reversal level of 2730 hinting that this market has a floor of optimism over a trade deal and is unlikely to plunge. 

02-07-19 … should the SP regain the 2730’s and Oil move back over $54, we would assume the correction phase is not ready to begin … significant downside risk before the March 1st trade deal deadline seems very unlikely

02-01-19  Stocks …longer term 2019 target zone remains Bullish in the 2900 to 3100 SP 500 Index, assuming no tariff war escalation. 

01-30-19   Impressive news response syndrome continues. Market confidence of a China Trade deal grows each week & is a major tailwind that will continue into February until China or the US publicize roadblocks. March SP 2730’s to 2740’s is the next target zone. The Feb’ pullback we expected may be elusive or a much higher low than many had hoped for.  

01-17-19   We have been expecting the obvious resistance in the low 2620’s SP to break .. No longer is this a market Selling Good News, but Buying Bad news.

01-14-19  Late January top short term should lead to a strong pullback into a Feb’ low where new buying is expected. Weak earnings & economy are “mostly” priced in. Short term trader Equity Call option buying indicates a ceiling on price with SP likely to stay under the low 2700’s in Jan’ & then fall into lower 2500’s in Feb’.

01-06-19    Further economic weakness is expected over the next few months when equity valuation risk should be mostly priced in. A test of record highs due this summer, assuming a positive trade deal in the 1st qtr’.

12-26-18  Strong short term bottom is likely in with the spike low early today (12-26-18). $VIX close over 36 Monday implies a low of some importance has arrived

12-18-18  With the sharp drop in China Trade proxies of Aussie$, Copper & Crude Oil today…a reversal lower in stocks before Christmas would not be a surprise.

12-17-18   New 2018 lows breaking multi-month support hints of capitulation. We remain with heavy cash levels

12-07-18   After 3 tests of the 10% correction lows since the Oct’ 3rd peak our old adage hints this 4th test has higher odds of busting to new lows – new 2018 lows, perhaps as much as the 17 to 20% correction levels from the peak basis Dow & SP.  Need a VIX>35-50 for a stronger low. Now 73% in cash.

12-04-18  Mini panic underway …We are raising more cash … Need to await new oversold signals before putting cash back into stocks.  

12-03-18  China sensitive Soybeans and Copper heading down all day is a sign the markets fear the China Trade truce will fail. If SP 500 Index 2760 & Dow 25,538 are tested or broken this week, then the Trade relief rally is on hold & stocks will continue to work even lower … 

11-20-18  The Dow psychology is setting up quickly for a stock market … tradable December low despite more downgrades in 2019.

11-19-18  We are a net 39% long stocks … hopes of a Trade deal seem ripe for disappointment yet again. 

10-18-18   Like the Jan’ – Feb’ correction, stocks…now heading back to the lows or new lows …

10-04-18   Our end of September newsletter warned of an October pullback as the mid-term election nears. 

09-27-18   Medium term traders should use the lows of 09-26-18 as short term support below which a new short term leg down may accelerate. 

08-04-18   Dow rally … to continue to new multi-month highs over the next 3 weeks … S&P 2900 to 2910 is the ideal target in August. 

06-25-18   Trump will risk furthering a trade war …he doesn’t want a deal; he wants a weaker China & stronger USA.

05-10-18    … we should expect rhetoric that keeps Oil prices edging higher (>$70). 

04-14-18   Oil has remained high as expected …We continue to like buying the dips into at least mid-May as Iranian talks heat up.  

03-27-18    … we continue to favor Trump … pivoting to an aggressive focus on Iran (Higher Oil)

03-18-18    Use any new testing of 11 to 15% intraday correction level as new buying entry.

02-05-18    Look for an initial low this week.

02-03-18    For a couple of months we have discussed our forecast for the first real correction since Trump was elected is due during the 1st qtr’ 2018 earnings reporting period from late January to late February.

01-23-18   A several month pause into the spring looks likely.  

11-14-17   Our current expectation remains that more serious corrections of 10% or more will hold off until the 1st quarter of 2018. 

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Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

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