Iran Threat Boosts Oil and Stocks

June 20, 2019 KDelta Stocks No Comments

{Follow model portfolio table & favored stocks below}

06-20-19   Oil jumps on expectation of a US strike, supporting stocks along with growing confidence of a July Fed rate cut. Stocks should stay near record highs through next week.

06-14-19   With assumption that Trump & Xi will talk Trade at G20 June 28th & Fed will cut rates, stocks remain in uptrend. Early July pullback likely : 10 Yr’ still heading toward 2% yield or 128+ basis Sept’ 10 Yr Note, where Bonds & Stocks may reach a temp’ peak.: Many tech & Fin’ stocks on our Fav’ list below continue hitting new record highs.

06-09-19  While word of new China trade talks would send Bond prices lower – yields higher, the current trend in 10 Yr yields is toward 2%. :  Well known resistance in the SP 500 Index is 2960’s.

06-05-19  Bonds are holding strong after Fed rate cut hint & weak jobs may keep Bonds upward to 128 area Sept’ 10 Yr, boosting stocks still further. Soon lower Bond yields signaling weak GDP & earnings, will equal weaker stocks. Stocks still need prospects of a trade deal discussion to improve medium term.

06-03-19   Last week our target was June 3rd low at 2733 or 2700 if under 2730.   2730 on June 3rd was the low before a monster short covering rally today on the news the Fed was open to a rate cut. This has placed a nice floor under the market preventing Trade War worries from tanking the market near term. We have talked of this corrective period as part of a trading range being carved out from 2700’s to 2900 area. Today’s rally may not last long, but supports a range bound market.: Our Fav’ stocks mentioned on May 9th continue to hold up/move to new highs despite the month long correction.: Bonds & Oil hint this Stock market surge today may be short lived.

06-02-19   June SP hit next target of 2733. Below 2730 increases odds of our old main target near 2700 SP 500 Index. Trade War escalation to continue until Trump & Xi meet. 

05-28-19    Short term low due near June 3rd. Without prospects of a Trade Deal, global economy assumed to slow – weaker earnings.

05-21-19     Bullish trade news has boosted stocks, but without a China Trade Agreement a broader trading range (2700’s – 2900’s) remains the best odds.

05-09-19   New Trump Tariffs without a hint of a deal being close will send stocks down sharply. : The high flyers we exited are amazingly still sitting at record highs after incredible gains this year –> WIX, SHOP, VEEV, DIS, GPN, OKTA,  TWLO… 

05-07-19   We have raised more cash. Our charts have been showing this decline with potential for 7 to 10% this month

04-30-19   Upper end of our short term target window is now being tested in the lower June S&P 2960’s .  

04-23-19   There is a feeling of climax in the air as many worry we are at an inflection area.  SP 2940’s to 2960’s remain our ideal topping zone to watch for.  : Exit DIS 140.

04-12-19  Fortunately we added Disney to the portfolio earlier this week. … : The S&P basis cash index targets 2950 area in coming weeks. 

04-10-19  … there is enough buying power to prevent any meaningful corrections near term.

04-05-19  Look for our forecast of record highs this summer to arrive in April. 

02-28-19   Still expecting record highs in all major indices by summer. Long term picture remains positive.   Stay with trend & use 3% corrections for more additions. 

(more past track record forecast commentary below our Favorite stock list)

Order GTCStock Price
Buy 130 LimitDWDP27.4


Model Portfolio Tracker:

2019 Open positions: new portfolio each calendar year

$100,000 Starting value 01-02-2019

$3,000 initial investment/stock

63% invested as of 06-20-19: Profit=$11,989 =+12% : vs SP=+18.3%

Symbol Name Last Change Market Val Total Chg Total %Chg Total Profit
SQ Square 74.42 2976.8 -1.49 -1.96% -59.6
HACK ISE Cyber Security ETF 40.16 2971.84 -0.09 -0.22% -6.66
AMZN Inc 1918.19 3836.38 62.79 3.38% 125.58
WTFC Wintrust Finl Corp 72.16 2886.4 -4.84 -6.29% -193.6
TWLO Twilio 146.66 3666.5 20.66 16.40% 516.5
DIS Walt Disney Company 142.02 4260.6 6.77 5.01% 203.1
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc 57.41 3444.6 -1.86 -3.14% -111.6
PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc 206.64 3099.6 -13.92 -6.31% -208.8
PYPL Paypal Holdings 118.79 3563.7 7.59 6.83% 227.7
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 142.21 3555.25 9.61 7.25% 240.25
CRM Inc 157.2 4244.4 11.15 7.63% 301.05
PLAN Anaplan Inc 51.35 4108 8.05 18.59% 644
SPLK Splunk Inc 124.47 3734.1 2.47 2.02% 74.1
WIX Ltd 149.04 3726 1.79 1.22% 44.75
GDI Gardner Denver Holdings Inc 34.89 3140.1 0.04 0.11% 3.6
CHWY Chewy Inc 34.23 3080.7 0.48 1.42% 43.2
HUN Huntsman Corp 19.3 3088 0.3 1.58% 48

Favored stocks Buy list (*=currently in strong momentum mode near highs): Most on our favs list today are in strong up-trends near record highs: Buy on 5%+ dips in SP 500 Index:

 Momentum/Tech stocks: *ACN Accenture :  ALGN Align Tech’ : AMZN  Amazon : *AYX Alteryx :  *CDW Corp  : CHWY Chewy : *COUP  Coupa Software : CRL Charles River : CRM Salesforece :   *CSCO Cisco :  *CYBR Cyberark : DBX Drop Box : *DXCM DexcomDELL : *DHR Danaher : *DIS Disney  : FIVE Five Below : GDI Gardner Denver : *GPN Global Payments : *HUBS Hubspot :  HUN HuntsmanIRDM Iridium :  INTU Intuit  : *MA Mastercard  : *MELI Mercadolibre : *MSFT Microsoft : *MSI Motorola Solutions : NEWR New Relic : *NOW Service Now :  *NSRGY Nestle : *OKTA :  OLLI  Ollies  : PANW Palo Alto :  *PEGA Pega Systems : *PLAN Anaplan*PLD Prologis : *PYPL PayPal  : RH Restoration Hardware : *ROKU  : *SBAC SBA Communications :  *SBUX Starbucks : *SHOP Shopify : SPLK Splunk :  *TEAM Atlassian : *TMO Thermo Fischer Sci’ : *TREE Lending Tree : *TRMB Trimble :  *TWLO Twilio  : *UPLD Upland Software : *V  Visa  : VZ Verizon : VMW   VMWare  : *VEEV Veeva : *WDAY WorkDay : *WMWaste Mgmt’  : *WIX *WP World Pay : *YUM   : *ZEN Zendesk : *ZM Zoom : *ZS Zscaler : ZUO Zuora

Undervalued bullpen shift from Momentum after a China deal: AMCX AMC : BABA Alibaba,  BIIB Biogen : BA Boeing, CAT Catepillar : CBS : CLB Core Labs : DWDP DowDupont : FLIR Systems : GS Goldman Sachs  : GMED Globus Medica : HUN Huntsman : JNJ Johnson&Johnson : MRO Marathon Oil : MMM 3M  : SAN Banco Santander : SLB Schlumberger : SPOT Spotify : SQ Square : STNE StoneCo : TME TenCent,  WSM Williams Sonoma : WTFC Wintrust Fin’ : :            ETF’s–>   XLE Energy ETF : OIH Energy Services Equip’ : IYE Oil & Gas stocks : XLB SPDR Materials : GNR & IGE Natural Resources : CARZ Auto sector :  SOYB Soybean ETF :  EEM Emerging Markets ETF : COPX Copper ETF : SLV Silver : XME Metals&Mining : GDX Gold Miners :  KRE Regional Banking

US Indexes – ETF’s:  SPY :  QQQ  :  XLK  :  HACK= Cyber security : XHE=Healthcare : FINX=Fintech : IHF : IHI : XLV :  MOAT

::: When using Stock Index Short hedges:=SH for SPY inverse : DOG for DJIA inverse : PSQ for QQQ inverse; VXX Vix volatility


(continued highlights/track record from above of past forecast updates correctly foretelling market action)

02-25-19  SP reached our 2800 – 2832 intermediate topping zone today after Trump announced Sunday he would suspend the new China tariff deadline. Stocks then pulled back from the SP 2814 highs on Trumps tweets drove Oil prices down. As mentioned in our latest “In The News” section interview the other week, a new Trade Deal framework might be the classic Buy the Rumor Sell the News of an agreement. If Oil moves to new 2019 highs then stocks may start move to new 2019 highs again.  

02-15-19  Our bias has remained to the upside with stock indices just 5% from all time highs.  Max potential in Feb’ in 2830’s. Next time indices fall more than 2% will quickly increase odds of our first meaningful correction of the year.: Oil is tethered to stocks & we remain long looking for $56.50 area next week before a pullback and >$60 eventually.

02-12-19  Well our suspicion of minimal downside risk before March 1st was realized today as the ideal 3+% correction was only 2% and the SP did rise above the reversal level of 2730 hinting that this market has a floor of optimism over a trade deal and is unlikely to plunge. 

02-07-19 … should the SP regain the 2730’s and Oil move back over $54, we would assume the correction phase is not ready to begin … significant downside risk before the March 1st trade deal deadline seems very unlikely

02-01-19  Stocks …longer term 2019 target zone remains Bullish in the 2900 to 3100 SP 500 Index, assuming no tariff war escalation. 

01-30-19   Impressive news response syndrome continues. Market confidence of a China Trade deal grows each week & is a major tailwind that will continue into February until China or the US publicize roadblocks. March SP 2730’s to 2740’s is the next target zone. The Feb’ pullback we expected may be elusive or a much higher low than many had hoped for.  

01-17-19   We have been expecting the obvious resistance in the low 2620’s SP to break .. No longer is this a market Selling Good News, but Buying Bad news.

01-14-19  Late January top short term should lead to a strong pullback into a Feb’ low where new buying is expected. Weak earnings & economy are “mostly” priced in. Short term trader Equity Call option buying indicates a ceiling on price with SP likely to stay under the low 2700’s in Jan’ & then fall into lower 2500’s in Feb’.

01-06-19    Further economic weakness is expected over the next few months when equity valuation risk should be mostly priced in. A test of record highs due this summer, assuming a positive trade deal in the 1st qtr’.

12-26-18  Strong short term bottom is likely in with the spike low early today (12-26-18). $VIX close over 36 Monday implies a low of some importance has arrived

12-18-18  With the sharp drop in China Trade proxies of Aussie$, Copper & Crude Oil today…a reversal lower in stocks before Christmas would not be a surprise.

12-17-18   New 2018 lows breaking multi-month support hints of capitulation. We remain with heavy cash levels

12-07-18   After 3 tests of the 10% correction lows since the Oct’ 3rd peak our old adage hints this 4th test has higher odds of busting to new lows – new 2018 lows, perhaps as much as the 17 to 20% correction levels from the peak basis Dow & SP.  Need a VIX>35-50 for a stronger low. Now 73% in cash.

12-04-18  Mini panic underway …We are raising more cash … Need to await new oversold signals before putting cash back into stocks.  

12-03-18  China sensitive Soybeans and Copper heading down all day is a sign the markets fear the China Trade truce will fail. If SP 500 Index 2760 & Dow 25,538 are tested or broken this week, then the Trade relief rally is on hold & stocks will continue to work even lower … 

11-20-18  The Dow psychology is setting up quickly for a stock market … tradable December low despite more downgrades in 2019.

11-19-18  We are a net 39% long stocks … hopes of a Trade deal seem ripe for disappointment yet again. 

10-18-18   Like the Jan’ – Feb’ correction, stocks…now heading back to the lows or new lows …

10-04-18   Our end of September newsletter warned of an October pullback as the mid-term election nears. 

09-27-18   Medium term traders should use the lows of 09-26-18 as short term support below which a new short term leg down may accelerate. 

08-04-18   Dow rally … to continue to new multi-month highs over the next 3 weeks … S&P 2900 to 2910 is the ideal target in August. 

06-25-18   Trump will risk furthering a trade war …he doesn’t want a deal; he wants a weaker China & stronger USA.

05-10-18    … we should expect rhetoric that keeps Oil prices edging higher (>$70). 

04-14-18   Oil has remained high as expected …We continue to like buying the dips into at least mid-May as Iranian talks heat up.  

03-27-18    … we continue to favor Trump … pivoting to an aggressive focus on Iran (Higher Oil)

03-18-18    Use any new testing of 11 to 15% intraday correction level as new buying entry.

02-05-18    Look for an initial low this week.

02-03-18    For a couple of months we have discussed our forecast for the first real correction since Trump was elected is due during the 1st qtr’ 2018 earnings reporting period from late January to late February.

01-23-18   A several month pause into the spring looks likely.  

11-14-17   Our current expectation remains that more serious corrections of 10% or more will hold off until the 1st quarter of 2018. 


Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

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