Strong Tech, Holding Market Hostage

{Follow model portfolio table below}

06-14-18  New record highs in Tech indices are keeping the US stock market buoyant during this quiet period between earnings and new Trade Deal news out of China and Europe. Broad stock indices will become more vulnerable to short term price corrections should the S&P 500 Index push over 2800 soon. Long term picture is positive awaiting news to trigger fear inducing corrections where new buyers will begin a new buying wave. 

06–8-18  Look for stocks to continue higher today with a short term top due June 11th – 13th, ideally around 2808 June SP and cash DOW 25,700-25,900. Cyber security (PANW/FTNT/PFPT), payment sector (PYPL/GPN/V/MA), subscription cloud kings (SPOT/AMZN/ADBE/NFLX/ADBE), software cloud kings (NEWR/RHT/TWLO/COUP/CRM) and supply chain beneficiaries (UNP/XPO/LNG) remain exciting investments despite parabolic up moves.

06-06-18   Our tech heavy model portfolio =+30% in 2018.

06-05-18   Tech and small cap indices (QQQ, XLK, IWM) are hitting new record highs this week while the major large cap indices here and around the world languish in a sideways pattern, 5 to 10% off their 2018 highs. Nasdaq (QQQ)  has already moved above our lower end target of 7124 basis June Nasdaq futures with potential for over 7200 near term. A continuation into June 8th should bring about a short term price peak in stocks. The vast majority of stocks in our model portfolio below and in the bullpen are testing or hitting new record highs this week despite the weaker pattern in the major indices.

06-01-18   Unemployment is at multi-decade lows. Tech indices are on the cusp of breaking out again with the Nasdaq targeting 7124 to 7305 should today’s gains hold. Such positive action despite enacting of Trade Tariffs on Europe today, implies a lack of concern that a trade war will escalate significantly or have an impact on the global economy. The past 19 months since Trump’s election have shown the pitfalls of relying upon a diversified portfolio when virtually all the gains are concentrated in Tech and to a lesser extent financial. Diversified portfolios have to wait for the European & Chinese trade deals with the US to be successfully resolved before they get a strong lift.

05-23-18    As long as Trade prospects are on course toward a positive resolution, the underlying markets will have a tailwind as earnings continue to catch up to last years excessive price appreciation premium. : US Services & Manufacturing PMI’s continue to point to solid growth & optimism along with slowing but strong growth in Europe despite China Trade uncertainty. This adds momentum to any eventual China/Europe/US Trade agreement – this summer. If consumer/industrial stocks return (post Trade agreements) to join energy, tech & banks on the upside later this year, then a new record breaking leg up in global equities would become more certain.

05-17-18     An old favorite from last year, SLCA is up 40% over the past 6 weeks as service stocks can’t keep up with demand for energy drilling in the Permian Basin. Another 50 to 80% higher over the next 6 to 12 months is the technical target. Look for mid to lower $60’s/Oil for buying USO, XLE, SLCA, MMP, LNG, ETE… to buy more. The energy supply logistics may require another year or 2 before infrastructure catches up. 

05-10-18    … we should expect rhetoric that keeps Oil prices edging higher (>$70) – Buy the Oil/energy stock dips. US Oil production is currently at another record 1o.5  mbd in April, projected to top 12 mbd by year end.  Energy infrastructure and pipeline companies serving the Permian should have more business than they can handle for at least the next year!

05-08-18   Stocks often move with Oil. With today’s announcement that the US was withdrawing from the Iranian “Agreement”, Oil prices sold the news & then zoomed right back to contract highs. 

04-16-18    Our April target is 26,800-900. 

04-14-18   Oil has remained high as expected …We continue to like buying the dips into at least mid-May as Iranian talks heat up.  

03-27-18    … we continue to favor Trump … pivoting to an aggressive focus on Iran by May. (Higher Oil)

03-18-18   Some deterioration before early April would be normal.  With the bigger picture still healthy, we would use any new legs testing the 11 to 15% correction level as new buying entries.

02-12-18       We still feel this decline needs more time, as… it was too quick to scare investors out of their long positions.

02-05-18    Current 2018 correction has already hit the magnetic 10% level on the Dow. Look for an initial low this week.

02-03-18    For a couple of months we have discussed our forecast for the first real correction since Trump was elected is due during the 1st qtr’ 2018 earnings reporting period from late January to late February.

01-23-18     We continue to view this period into mid-February as a higher risk time for earnings euphoria saturation.  A several month pause into the spring looks likely, especially if the 5% correction level is tested. VXX and SDS are basic hedging ETF vehicles 

01-03-18    Positive economic news environment in the US & Globally still bodes well for stocks in January. Currently there are still too many looking for any pullback to Buy heavily. 

11-14-17   Our current expectation remains that more serious corrections of 10% or more will hold off until the 1st quarter of 2018. 

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Investors 93% Long

Model 30 long holdings of 3%/positions:

Model Portfolio Tracker:

1-2-2018 Start Value = $101,000 with

2018 ExecSpec portfolio P&L= $33,790 = +33.5% return YTD 06-14-2018 {SP 500=+3.7%:Nasdaq=+11.9%}
Symbol Name Last Change %Chg Market Val Total Chg Total %Chg Profit Total Profit
KRE S&P Regional Banking ETF SPDR 63.06 3216.06 3.8 6.41% 193.8
AMZN Amazon.Com Inc 1723.86 19 1.11% 5171.58 551.86 47.09% 57 1655.58
ADBE Adobe Systems Inc 258.1 1.97 0.77% 4387.7 82.25 46.77% 33.49 1398.25
BLD Topbuild Corp 83.49 0.34 0.41% 3339.6 7.57 9.97% 13.6 302.8
BOX Box Inc 26.72 0.57 2.18% 3820.96 5.48 25.80% 81.51 783.64
CNC Centene Corp 123.5 -1.17 -0.94% 3705 22.8 22.64% -35.1 684
CRM Salesforce.Com Inc 138.41 1.91 1.40% 4152.3 35.53 34.54% 57.3 1065.9
CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers 113.58 -0.52 -0.46% 3634.56 18.27 19.17% -16.64 584.64
DPZ Domino’s Pizza Inc 273.65 0.62 0.23% 4378.4 85.13 45.16% 9.92 1362.08
HOME At Home Group Inc 38.27 0.13 0.34% 3827 7.84 25.76% 13 784
ISRG Intuitive Surg Inc 440.24 3521.92 72.35 19.67% 578.8
MGPI MGP Ingredients Inc 94.54 2.58 2.81% 3687.06 17.32 22.43% 100.62 675.48
MSFT Microsoft Corp 101.42 0.57 0.57% 3549.7 15.29 17.75% 19.95 535.15
NOW Servicenow Inc 185.34 4.11 2.27% 4262.82 54.34 41.48% 94.53 1249.82
NFLX Netflix Inc 392.87 12.94 3.41% 6285.92 196.77 100.34% 207.04 3148.32
NTNX Nutanix Inc 62.58 -0.92 -1.45% 5381.88 27.3 77.38% -79.12 2347.8
OLLI Ollies Bargain CS 75.65 0.75 1.00% 4312.05 22.45 42.20% 42.75 1279.65
PFPT Proofpoint Inc 126.52 1.39 1.11% 4301.68 36.97 41.28% 47.26 1256.98
PLD Prologis Inc 64.42 0.19 0.30% 3027.74 -0.17 -0.26% 8.93 -7.99
PYPL Paypal Holdings 85.61 0.34 0.40% 3424.4 10.37 13.78% 13.6 414.8
PODD Insulet Corp 77.76 3421.44 8.62 12.47% 379.28
RHT Red Hat Inc 175.9 1.87 1.07% 4397.5 54.86 45.32% 46.75 1371.5
SBUX Starbucks Corp 57.02 0.81 1.44% 2965.04 -0.93 -1.60% 42.12 -48.36
SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. 178.1 7.28 4.26% 3740.1 32.03 21.93% 152.88 672.63
TLND Talend S.A. 62.75 1.38 2.25% 5020 24.95 66.01% 110.4 1996
TWLO Twilio 59 -0.56 -0.94% 7434 34.87 144.51% -70.56 4393.62
UNP Union Pacific Corp 144.94 0.66 0.46% 3188.68 10.23 7.59% 14.52 225.06
WP Worldpay Inc. 84.31 -0.09 -0.11% 3456.71 10.77 14.65% -3.69 441.57
XPO Xpo Logistics Inc 111.66 -1.64 -1.45% 3684.78 19.16 20.71% -54.12 632.28
ZBRA Zebra Technologies 157.73 -0.29 -0.18% 4574.17 53.63 51.52% -8.41 1555.27
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc 44.69 0.68 1.55% 3485.82 6.32 16.47% 53.04 492.96
BA Boeing Company 362.42 -1.43 -0.39% 3624.2 66.67 22.54% -14.3 666.7
BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd 210.86 4.24 2.05% 3584.62 34.46 19.54% 72.08 585.82
SDS Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares 38.08 3160.64 1.59 4.36% 131.97
Favored stocks 2018 List

*AAPL   Apple  : *AAXN Axon : *AMZN  Amazon :  *ACN –Accenture : *ALGN Align tech :  *ADBE Adobe  :  *BEAT Biotelemtry : *BLD Topbuild : *BA  Boeing  :  BOX  :  *BABA  Alibaba :  CGC  Canopy Growth :  *CBRE  Group :  *CNC  Centene :  *CRM Salesforece.com :  CFR Frost  : CONE Cyrus One : *COUP  Coupa Software : CSCO : *DBX Drop Box :  *DOCU Docusign :  *DPZ Dominoe’s  : *ETE Energy Transfer : *EXAS  Exact Sciences  :  *FSCT Forescout:  *Fortinet FTNT :  *GPN  Global Payments :  GOOGL   Alphabet  : *HOME At Home :  *IDTI  Integrated Devices  :  *ISRG Intuitive Surgical  *LNG Cheniere : *MA  Mastercard   :  *MGPI  MGP Ingredients : *MMP Magellan Partners : MU Micron : *MSFT Microsoft : *NOW  Service Now :  *NFLX Netflix  : *NTNX  Nutanix    :   *NEWR   New Relics   :  *NVDA Nvidia   :  *OLLI  Ollies :  *PANW Palo Alto Networks :  PFPT ProofPoint  :  *PYPL PayPal   :  *PLD  Prologis  :   *PODD Insulet   : *RHT RedHat  :  SBUX – Starbucks  : SLCA Silica : *SPOT Spotify : *STZ Constellation Brands  :  *SPLK – Splunk  : *TDOC Teladoc : *TLND Talend    : *TFX   Teleflex   : *TWLO Twilio :  *UNH  United Healthcare  : *UNP – Union Pacific  USCR   US Concrete  *V  Visa  :  WP WorldPay  :  *VMW   VMWare  : WM Waste Mgmt’  :  WDAY Workday  :WTFC  Wintrust fin’  : *XPO Logistics : *ZBRA – Zebra Tech’ , *ZUO Zuora…………… *=currently in strong momentum mode

US Indexes – ETF’s:  SPY  :  QQQ  :  XLK  :  IWR  : XLE  :  KRE  : *PEJ : *DCT  Industrial Trust, VNM

                  ::: When using Short hedges:=SDS (short for SPY) : QID (short for QQQ)

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Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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