S&P Test of 2800 Next Week?

February 15, 2019 KDelta Stocks, Speculator No Comments

{Follow model portfolio table & favored stocks below}  *Note we have an interview from the 13th being released soon.

Select commentary:

02-15-19  Our bias has remained to the upside with stock indices just 5 to 10% from all time highs. The coiling action of stocks all day began to unwind to the upside as the closing bell rang minutes ago.  SP (basis March) targets 2788 – 2798 with max potential in Feb’ in lower 2830’s. Stop orders are building in the 2800 – 2825 zone. Need a couple more up days for first overbought reading for Traders we suspect. Tech stocks that we follow are on fire despite FANG stocks and mega caps vast underperformance. We are 54% long for investors, yet still underinvested due to lack of >2%+ corrections in 2019. Next time indices fall more than 2% will quickly increase odds of our first meaningful correction of the year – perhaps near a significant good or bad News announcement on a China Deal.: Oil is tethered to stocks & we remain long looking for $56.50 area next week before a pullback and >$60 eventually.

02-12-19  Well our suspicion of minimal downside risk before March 1st was realized today as the ideal 3+% correction was only 2% and the SP did rise above the reversal level of 2730 hinting that this market has a floor of optimism over a trade deal and is unlikely to plunge without a serious warning of an impasse with China. 

02-07-19 … should the SP regain the 2730’s and Oil move back over $54 Friday the 8th, we would assume the correction phase is not ready to begin. … we remain flexible should the market quickly rebound. … significant downside risk before the March 1st trade deal deadline seems very unlikely: this summary still favors buying dips over risk of selling rallies. 

02-06-19  Thus far our mid Jan & early Feb mapping of peaks on the stock market have been almost exact – now what? 

02-01-19  Stocks …longer term 2019 target zone remains Bullish in the 2900 to 3100 SP 500 Index, assuming no tariff war escalation. 

01-30-19   Impressive news response syndrome continues. Market confidence of a China Trade deal grows each week & is a major tailwind that will continue into February until China or the US publicize roadblocks. March SP 2730’s to 2740’s is the next target zone. The Feb’ pullback we expected may be elusive or a much higher low than many had hoped for.  

01-17-19   We have been expecting the obvious resistance in the low 2620’s SP to break .. No longer is this a market Selling Good News, but Buying Bad news.

01-14-19  Late January top short term should lead to a strong pullback into a Feb’ low where new buying is expected. Weak earnings & economy are “mostly” priced in. Short term trader Equity Call option buying indicates a ceiling on price with SP likely to stay under the low 2700’s in Jan’ & then fall into lower 2500’s in Feb’.

01-06-19    Further economic weakness is expected over the next few months when equity valuation risk should be mostly priced in. A test of record highs due this summer, assuming a positive trade deal in the 1st qtr’.

12-26-18  Strong short term bottom is likely in with the spike low early today (12-26-18). $VIX close over 36 Monday implies a low of some importance has arrived

12-18-18  With the sharp drop in China Trade proxies of Aussie$, Copper & Crude Oil today…a reversal lower in stocks before Christmas would not be a surprise.


(more past track record forecast commentary below our Favorite stock list)


Model Portfolio Tracker:

2019 Open positions: new portfolio each calendar year

$100,000 Starting value 01-02-2019

$3,000 initial investment/stock

54% invested as of 02-15-19: Profit=$10,025 =+10% : vs SP=+12.5%

Despite being late & holding too much cash our overly tech heavy portfolio is quickly catching the surging SP benchmark. Need correction to diversify.

(*we adjusted CNC for 2 for 1 split)

Symbol Name Last Market Val Total Chg Total %Chg Total Profit Time
CRM Salesforce.com Inc 158.7 3491.18 23.69 17.55% 521.18 12:23 ET
SPLK Splunk Inc 134.9 3910.65 30.85 29.66% 894.65 12:23 ET
COUP Coupa Software Inc 95.27 4668.23 34.27 56.18% 1679.23 12:22 ET
DATA Tableau Software Inc Class A 128.3 3208.5 7.34 6.07% 183.5 12:23 ET
DBX Dropbox Inc 25.8 3689.4 4.8 22.86% 686.4 12:23 ET
FIVE Five Below Inc 129.5 3625.44 24.48 23.31% 685.44 12:21 ET
SOYB Teucrium Soybean 16.42 2955.6 -0.18 -1.08% -32.4 12:07 ET
MMSI Merit Medical Sys 59.48 3509.32 8.38 16.40% 494.42 12:17 ET
PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc 225.9 3613.6 43.35 23.75% 693.6 12:24 ET
PYPL Paypal Holdings 94.88 4744 11.18 13.36% 559 12:24 ET
CNC Centene Corp 64.88 3503.52 8.88 15.86% 479.52 12:22 ET
EEM Emerging Markets Ishares MSCI ETF 41 3075 1.5 3.80% 112.5 Liquidated
SBUX Starbucks Corp 66.21 3178.08 3.21 5.10% 154.08 Liquidated
VMW Vmware Inc 168.7 3373.8 20.88 14.13% 417.6 12:18 ET
LOGI Logitech Int S.A. 36.83 2946.4 1.38 3.89% 110.4 12:09 ET
QQQ Nasdaq QQQ Invesco ETF 171.6 3088.8 7.05 4.28% 126.9 12:24 ET
BOX Box Inc 24.44 3519.36 3.64 17.50% 524.16 12:21 ET
SHOP Shopify Inc 177.1 3009.85 102.05 136.07% 1734.85 12:23 ET

Final results 2018 ExecSpec portfolio P&L= $24,514 = +21.9% return :  {SP 500= -6.7%:Nasdaq=-1.4%

 Favored stocks Buy list (*=currently in strong momentum mode near highs): Most on our favs list today are in strong up-trends near 4 month highs:

 *AMED Amedisys :  AMZN  Amazon *BEAT Biotelemtry *BOX : *CDW Corp :  CNC  Centene *COUP  Coupa Software *CRM Salesforece :   CSCO Cisco :  *CYBR Cyberark :  *DATA Tableau Software : DBX Drop Box : DIS Disney  :  *ETSY :  *FIVE Five Below  : *HCA Healthcare Hldgs’ : *HUBS Hubspot : JNJ Johnson&Johnson :  *INTU Intuit :  *MA Mastercard   : *MDB MongoDB :  MMSI Merit Medical : MSFT Microsoft : *NEWR New Relic :*NOW Service Now*OKTAOLLI  Ollies  : *PANW Palo Alto : *PFPT Proofpoint : *PLD Prologis*PYPL PayPal  : *SBAC SBA Communications :  *SBUX Starbucks : *SHOP ShopifySPOT Spotify :  *SPLK Splunk  : *TEAM Atlassian : *TWLO Twilio :   UNH  United Healthcare  : Visa  : VZ Verizon : *VMW   VMWare  : *VEEV Veeva : *WM Waste Mgmt’  : *WDAY Workday  : *YUM :   *ZBRA  Zebra Tech’  

US Indexes – ETF’s:  SPY :  QQQ  :  XLK  :  HACK= Cyber security : XHE=Healthcare : FINX=Fintech : IHF : XLV : *OLD : MOAT

Current commodity funds ETN’s or ETF’s in long term Buy zones 4th Qtr’ 2018: Aussie$=FXA :  Silver=SLV : Gold=IAU :  Soybeans=SOYB :  

::: When using Stock Index Short hedges:=SH for SPY inverse : DOG for DJIA inverse : PSQ for QQQ inverse

(continued highlights from above of past forecast updates correctly foretelling market action)

12-17-18   New 2018 lows breaking multi-month support hints of capitulation. We remain with heavy cash levels

12-07-18   After 3 tests of the 10% correction lows since the Oct’ 3rd peak our old adage hints this 4th test has higher odds of busting to new lows – new 2018 lows, perhaps as much as the 17 to 20% correction levels from the peak basis Dow & SP.  Need a VIX>35-50 for a stronger low. Now 73% in cash.

12-04-18  Mini panic underway …We are raising more cash … Need to await new oversold signals before putting cash back into stocks.  

12-03-18  China sensitive Soybeans and Copper heading down all day is a sign the markets fear the China Trade truce will fail. If SP 500 Index 2760 & Dow 25,538 are tested or broken this week, then the Trade relief rally is on hold & stocks will continue to work even lower … 

11-20-18  The Dow psychology is setting up quickly for a stock market … tradable December low despite more downgrades in 2019.

11-19-18  We are a net 39% long stocks … hopes of a Trade deal seem ripe for disappointment yet again. 

10-18-18   Like the Jan’ – Feb’ correction, stocks…now heading back to the lows or new lows …

10-04-18   Our end of September newsletter warned of an October pullback as the mid-term election nears. 

09-27-18   Medium term traders should use the lows of 09-26-18 as short term support below which a new short term leg down may accelerate. 

08-04-18   Dow rally … to continue to new multi-month highs over the next 3 weeks … S&P 2900 to 2910 is the ideal target in August. 

06-25-18   Trump will risk furthering a trade war …he doesn’t want a deal; he wants a weaker China & stronger USA.

05-10-18    … we should expect rhetoric that keeps Oil prices edging higher (>$70). 

04-14-18   Oil has remained high as expected …We continue to like buying the dips into at least mid-May as Iranian talks heat up.  

03-27-18    … we continue to favor Trump … pivoting to an aggressive focus on Iran (Higher Oil)

03-18-18    Use any new testing of 11 to 15% intraday correction level as new buying entry.

02-05-18    Look for an initial low this week.

02-03-18    For a couple of months we have discussed our forecast for the first real correction since Trump was elected is due during the 1st qtr’ 2018 earnings reporting period from late January to late February.

01-23-18   A several month pause into the spring looks likely.  

11-14-17   Our current expectation remains that more serious corrections of 10% or more will hold off until the 1st quarter of 2018. 


Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

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