Exec Spec – October 20 2014 (premium)

ExecSpec - The Executive Speculator - Premium Advice

Bull Market Dragged Lower in Stock Market

With the major stock averages falling 10% at their lows we advised increasing exposure to 90% invested. Markets are priced on earnings expectations and long term cycles still point higher.

We highlighted a short term bottom last week with an options chart at the lows and add this breadth chart of the % of stocks hitting 50 day lows.

50 day lows 10-14

Global economy decelerates—again!

The vast majority of the standout performance of US growth vs the world is attributable to Ben Bernanke and the  $3.6 Trillion (QE) Bond buying money creation scheme he championed 6 years ago. Europe followed the US lead until 2 years ago….

Housing and Jobs:  Better, but it doesn’t feel good

Renters and multi-family construction are doing well, but historical household formation is in secular decline.

Russia in the Red!

…Putin will use the winter of discontent to raise energy prices to Europe and demand Western payments of Ukrainian energy debts…

Europe Stalls, Yield Falls, Mediocrity Flourishes

For the past year we have forecasted a 3 to 3,1% top in 10 year Bond yields (3.05% was The Top) and eventually a drop in rates. The 4th quarter 2014 should be The low. …

Oil: Demand stalls while supplies rise !

… China has accounted for 50% of the growth in Oil demand the past 10 years and currently their demand growth is ZERO, a sign their economy is growing much less than they claim. In addition Europe has decelerated, reducing Oil demand. Hype over Ebola has accelerated the $28 collapse in Oil since June. The current price in the Mid-$80’s has been our target for months.

Metals—not so precious

While there have been no new long term Sell signals in Gold and Silver since the 2011-2013 break, the song remains the same…

K DELTA 2014: Commodity futures trading system

$ P/(L)   P/L

Contract  %marginDateSignal   Entry                     exit date/price                                                                                          09-09-14 Sell HGZ 31015       09-16-14   312.05       (475)           (16%)

09-03-14 Sell ZWZ 542           09-11-14   511            1550             94%

09-09-14 Sell ZMZ 337.7        09-18-14   323.7        1400              64%

09-04-14 Sell SBV 1529          09-10-14   1463           739              49%

September results: 3 Wins &1 Loss=$3214 gross profit: average signal=+48%

YTD=31 Wins & 16 Losses=68% accuracy=$29,318 profit=+147% per $20,000 account

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