The Trump – China trade dispute, peak profit margins and downward earnings growth forecasts will keep stock prices on the defensive in the months ahead. The equity Bull market can be sustained and a recession avoided in 2019, however it will require a resolution on the trade front and likely further…
Our September warning of an October correction lasting until election day November 6th warranted a defensive posture for investors. Looking at the 200 day moving average (dma) of stock indices partially illustrates our subdued current outlook. Half way through the stock markets October plunge we witnessed the break of the vaunted 200 dma…
Trump’s claim of bringing back American manufacturing jobs is boastful with some truth. Since the manufacturing halcyon days of the 1970’s, the US Dollar was allowed to depreciate and cheap labor abroad sent US factory jobs into a multi-decade tailspin. Manufacturing output rose, but 8 Million jobs were lost. In his first…
David Stockman, former budget director for President Ronald Reagan, says “I think all hell is going to break loose,” as the result of the Trump tax cut. Past assertions indicate he expects a 40 to 70% stock market collapse, but no idea when. For Stockman it has always been about…
Investors, consumers and business owners seem to be winning on all fronts these days. Forecasts estimate 2018 dividends of $500 billion, corporate stock buybacks of over $700 billion and Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) business of $1.3 trillion. This would be an impressive 10% of the value of the S&P 500…
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