Since 2001 the New York Federal Reserve has compiled a manufacturing survey of the NY Empire State. It moves in step with most other Fed district surveys and provides a good measure of the industrial sector. After rising from a near recessionary collapse in early 2016 to historic growth and optimism in 2017 and 2018, the Empire…
While we often downplay the importance of the inverted yield curve with short rates above long rates, there are many other warning signs of a slowing economy (GDP), weaker earnings and falling inflation. Bond yields have now fallen back to the moribund economic days of 2016 when the energy recession…
Prominent St Louis Fed Chair James Bullard doesn’t like gaming investor expectations. The Federal Reserve has conveyed to the markets that they will not cut rates in June, but hinted the Fed will oblige in late July. Bullard feels that if you see weakness now that warrants lower interest rates,…
The Federal Reserve Bank was created 106 years ago to ensure the functioning of the US financial system with the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate interest rates. These goals are achieved through four mechanisms, but primarily through adjusting various central bank interest rates and the buying and…
While the “No Pain, No Gain” fitness mantra has been somewhat debunked, it may hold true with regards to Trump achieving an all encompassing Trade Agreement with China. Throughout the first 4 months of 2019, confidence in a first half of the year China trade deal soared along with stock investor…
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