Stocks Slide On Oil Slick While Cotton Makes Hard Landing

2016 KDELTA Stocks  portfolio update                  08-10-16

The stock indices steep ascent to record highs has paused over the past few weeks as expected due to the overbought sentiment readings we have highlighted. Oil prices continue linked to stocks as well, as we have often written about. On up days in Oil prices stocks surge while lower Oil prices bring either sideways or lower stock prices. Today the SP fell about 5 points while Oil prices fell~$1. Energy fundamentals continue to add a headwind to stocks as we head toward seasonal lows near year end. Election jitters later in September may increase the wind velocity.  Despite the noted resistance factors we don’t expect a significant correction beyond a 3 to 5% pullback. Investors should continue to expect an upside continuation to record highs into 2017.

Our second Cotton (BAL) positon exit missed top tick by one tick and paid the price of its relationship to the overnight futures market by gapping down sharply, yet holding on to 11% gains over the past month upon the exit. Our KDelta and HS Futures models both benefited from being pure plays as they caught the Cotton top for readers precisely and also moved to the profitable short side. Cotton commercial traders had quickly reversed from extreme Buying at THE lows to extreme Selling at the August top.

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Each position= 5% portfolio unless specified:  TBD=To Be Determined

Pending trade order (Buy Stops entries unless specified)

Stock:     Buy Stop:                    Exit price                        P/L Stop post entry

Buy SNA 158.00                         TBD                                        151.70

Buy SNA 149.30 Limit order    TBD                                        148.00

Buy WEAT  7.94                         TBD                                          7.70

Open positions

Entry                                             Profit  Exit                       Trailing Exit Stop

08-04-16 Buy WEAT 7.84          TBD                                        7.69

Total KDelta portfolio 5% invested

Long Term Investors 90% invested SPY

 

Closed Positions 2016:

.                                                                                                     P/(L) % to

.                                                                                 %                 Portfolio at

Entry                                              Exit                Profit/loss     5%/trade

07-11-16 Buy BAL 44.26            08-09-16  49.15     11%        0.55

06-06-16 Buy BAL 43.35            08-05-16  51.75     19.4%     0.97

08-02-16 Buy FXB 129.82          08-05-16  127.28  (1.96%)   (0.098)

07-11-16 Buy AMTD 28.00        08-02-16  29.89     6.75%      0.3375

07-26-16 Buy CAT 81.20            08-01-16   82.10    1.1%        0.055

August results: +1.8145%   YTD = +3.65%

07-21-16 Buy CAT 81.01            07-22-16  79.00   (2.48)        (0.124)

07-11-16 Buy WEAT 8.16           07-20-16  7.82     (4.17)        (0.21)

06-29-16 Buy JO 21.89               07-18-16  21.89    0                0

06-06-16 Buy UNG 7.39             07-07-16  8.36      13.1           0.656

06-01-16 Buy UNG 7.07             07-07-16  8.36      18.2           0.912

July results: + 1.234%   YTD = +1.83%

06-22-16 Buy LRCX 85.71          06-24-16 82.89     (3.3%)       (0.6145)

06-16-16 Buy GIS 65.50             06-24-16  65.50     0                0

06-20-16 Buy CAG 47.21           06-24-16  46.70    (1.1%)         (0.054)

06-07-16 Buy HSY 94.94            06-24-16  95.53     0.6%          0.031

06-07-16 Buy T 39.73                 06-22-16  41.55     4.6%          0.23

05-27-16 Buy CORN 22.49         06-21-16  22.49     0                0

05-26-16 Buy CORN 22.26         06-21-16  22.70     1.98%        0.099

06-03-16 Buy CAG 46.65            06-14-16  46.11    (1.16%)      (0.058)

05-26-16 Buy WEAT 8.96           06-15-16  9.00       0.45%        0.0225

06-02-16 Buy WEAT 9.00           06-15-16  9.00       0                 0

05-26-16 Buy RS 74.92               06-14-16  74.92     0                 0

06-07-16 Buy DE 87.49               06-14-16 84.79     (3.1%)       (0.155)

06-07-16 Buy WFM 34.92          06-14-16  33.09    (5.2%)       (0.26)

05-31-16 Buy SINA 52.67           06-13-16 51.62     (2%)           (0.10)

05-25-16 Buy FXB 143.42          06-10-16  140.30   (2.2%)       (0.11%)

06-07-16 Buy SJM 132.65          06-09-16 139.00   4.8%           0.24

06-06-16 Buy Z 29.71                  06-07-16 32.80     10.4%        0.52

05-26-16 Buy KLIC 12.40            06-06-16 12.20     (1.6%)        (0.08)

June results = (0.1285)%   YTD = +0.5965%

05-25-16 Buy MDT 79.46           05-26-16  78.85   (0.8%)       (0.04)

05-27-16 Buy RTN 128.95          05-29-16  125.70 (2.5%)       (0.125)

05-28-16 Buy TXN 60.00            05-29-16   57.71   (3.8%)       (0.19)

May results = (0.355%)    YTD = +0.725%

04-20-16 Buy UNG 7.02             04-28-16  6.73     (4.1%)        (0.205)

04-13-16 Buy SLM 6.69              04-21-16 6.84       2.2%           0.11

04-19-16 Buy CL 71.57               04-20-16  70.57   (1.4%)         (0.07)

04-07-16 Buy AU 14.32              04-11-16 15.48      8.1%           0.405

03-28-16 Buy MMC 60.23          04-07-16  60.23     0                 0

04-01-16 Buy GS 158.91             04-05-16  155.00  (2.45%)     (0.12)

April results = 0.12%     YTD = +1.08%

02-16-16 Buy PNRA 200.55       03-03-16  214.9     7.15%         0.36

March results = 0.3575    YTD = +0.96%

02-23-16 Buy HIMX 9                  02-24-1    8.59      (4.5%)        (0.227)

02-16-16 Buy USAT 3.80             02-23-16  3.88       2.1%           0.105

02-19-16 Buy HON 107.42          02-23-16  104.31 (2.9%)         (0.14)

02-16-16 Buy ORBC 7.88             02-18-16  8.20       4.1%           0.205

02-03-16 Buy AEM 30.70            02-08-16  34.4       12.3%         0.615

02-02-16 Buy ACC 42.00             02-08-16  42.40     0.94%         0.047

February results = +0.832%   YTD= +0.605%

January results   = 0

 

{Results 2014=+10%; 2015=-(1%) vs SP 500 Index –(1%)}

 

 

Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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