Corporate balance sheets are in excellent shape, but equally impressive is the Net Worth of the American Household that grows virtually every single quarter year over year. During rare periods when it doesn’t expand, it typically coincides with economic trouble. Historically, more than a 4% decline in sequential quarters is a warning…
Inflection points such as the record October stock market peak and the panic low in December are the important milestones we endeavor to navigate successfully through this massive 10 year Bullish wave in US stocks. During the past 7 weeks of surging equity prices we have identified temporary pause points…
The China Trade Deal expectations continue to be the most important driver of US stock indices in 2019. Bullish Trump tweets and robust rhetoric from Chinese leaders had buoyed investors more than recent dovish Fed commentary. Having already priced in an accommodative Fed and high odds of a deal with…
Too much credit for the stock market ascent has been assigned to the Powell Put, the assumption that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will stay accommodative until the economy accelerates and stocks reach new highs. A Put option is a hedge against downside risk, a protection vehicle that increases in value…
While a renewed intractable Trade War with China and a US recession would ruin our call for an important bottom in Oil prices in the $40’s, we feel the extreme pessimism among Money Managers in December regarding Texas Tea will provide support for Oil. The implication of this perspective is…
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