No Updates Until Week of March 25th: World Awaits US – China Trade Outcome

Updates resume week of March 25th

03-12-19  A boring year for the KDelta Futures Investor model to date as we remain conservative until a US – China trade Deal signing sate is announced. At that point we will be more aggressive & assume a Trade Deal will send the US$ lower and virtually all other commodities higher. Ags and Softs and Meats are extremely oversold in general. Huge long term profit opportunities would arise in anticipation of a global rebound in exports which have been contracting since mid-2018. A No Trade Deal outcome would be a disaster & even risk a Recession. : Most oversold future Buying opportunities are in –> Corn, Soybeans, SoyMeal, Rice, KC Wheat, Feeder Cattle, Hogs, Canadian$, Swiss, Euro, Coffee, Cotton & especially *OJ.  Most overbought future Selling opportunity we see is only in Live Cattle. A voluminous number of commodities are on the floor in late 2018 and early 2019 in limb awaiting a Trade related inflection point. 

02-25-19  The Sideways Dollar, Ags and Softs have persisted for months. Most commodities remain in limbo during the Global Trade Tariff uncertainty and economic weakness. We expect a discounting of renewed economic expansion and rising commodities by mid year assuming a Trade Deal is assured.

09-17-18  The Trade War escalation with China reveals that both sides are willing to continue with trade restrictions indefinitely. 

06-14-18   Rain forecasts for the Cotton belt increase the risk of a medium term top very soon. {06-14-18 was THE Top!}

06-05-18     Ags look weak due to strong $ & China trade uncertainty.  

05-21-17         Oil has rallied into the upper $60’s in May as forecasted and now headed for $72 – $75. 

01-23-18        Oil has potential for one more push to the $66 to $67 zone and we favor buying the $8 dips until May.

See our Risk Disclaimer at the bottom. Note that familiarity with Futures Trading is assumed for readers. Order entry dates, the name of the commodity futures contract, the Exit price (or TBD=to be determined) as well as the trailing stop are all identified. All entry price signals and trailing stops displayed are assumed to be Stop orders at that price and all Exit prices are assumed to be Limit orders, unless otherwise noted. Limit Order=buy or sell a security or commodity at a specified price or better: Stop Order= buy or sell  once the price of the commodity reaches a specified price, known as the stop price. When the stop price is reached, a stop order becomes a market order to execute at current priceP=profit & (L)= loss. A P/(L) is shown for both a single quantity futures contract order as well as a theoretical order using $10,000 for the Order of the specified commodity futures contract. The Futures Contract month is abbreviated: Jan=January—Dec=December

[KDelta Futures Investor uses long term Commitment of Trader reports with various duration Stochastic momentum indicators for a longer term futures investment that can last for weeks or months vs our KDelta Futures Trader Model.]

Open Positions KDelta Investor model

DateSignal ContractEntryTrailing StopExit

Pending Signals KDelta Futures Investor

SignalContract/EntryTrade ExitTrailing Stop

Closed Positions Kdelta Futures Investor 2018

DateTradeEntry PriceTrade Exit DateExit PriceProfit (Loss)P/(L) $10K
Margin/Trade
YTD=
$8,612
YTD=
$41,319
11-26-18Sell Dec SoyMeal301.610-27-18305.2(360)(2257)
10-25-18Buy Mar Cocoa221510-29-182187(280)(1340)
10-01-18Buy Dec Corn356-410-25-18365-44505114
09-24-18Buy Dec BeanOil281610-09-1828914508182
09-11-18Buy Dec Swiss1034009-26-18103865752010
08-30-18Buy Mar Sugar110809-24-1811383363209
08-10-18Buy Dec Corn373-008-22-18373-000
07-31-18Buy Nov Beans896-008-06-1889600
07-30-18Buy Sep Swiss1014208-02-1810084(725)(2354)
07-24-18Buy Dec BeanOil283308-02-1828501021545
06-05-18Buy Dec Hogs578006-19-1858201601212
05-21-18Buy Nov FCattle1403006-14-181454025508279
05-21-18Buy Dec LCattle1085006-14-18109855403273
05-21-18Buy Sep Swiss1011006-14-18101859373044
05-21-18Buy Dec Coffee1213006-07-18122303751623
05-21-18Buy Sep Aussie755106-08-1875691801309
05-21-18Buy Oct Sugar120006-08-18120000
05-16-18Buy Dec BeanOil313906-06-18313900
05-21-18Buy Dec Hogs1575006-05-1815690(240)(1818)
01-12-18Buy Mar Euro1214102-06-1812367282512,229
01-03-18Buy Mar Yen892502-02-189105225010,227
01-03-18Buy Mar Wheat434-401-12-18424-4(500)(4785)
01-03-18Buy Mar Coffee1271001-10-1812440(1013)(4383)

Closed Positions Kdelta Futures Investor

DateTradeEntry PriceTrade Exit DateExit PriceProfit (Loss)P/(L) $10K
Margin/Trade
YTD=
$20.087
YTD=
$78,587
12-06-17Buy Mar Coffee1268012-07-1712470(788)(3411)
12-03-17Buy Mar Wheat44012-06-17430(500)(4785)
11-27-17Buy Mar Sugar154112-06-171475(739)(7058)
11-14-17Buy Mar Yen885812-04-1789055872136
11-08-17Buy Mar Cocoa215011-14-17215000
10-26-17Buy Dec Cocoa213011-02-172062(680)(4263)
10-30-17Buy Mar Sugar147011-02-171444(291)(2390)
10-03-17Buy Mar Sugar143110-20-171415(179)(1453)
10-11-17Buy Dec Cocoa210210-16-172055(470)(2947)
10-11-17Buy Dec Coffee1266010-16-1712510(563)(1896)
09-14-17Buy Dec Cocoa198010-05-171963(170)(1066)
09-15-17Buy Jan OJ1481509-22-1714820743
09-18-17Sell Dec Aussie799909-20-178050(510)(3197)
09-15-17Sell Mar Sugar14.8509-18-1714.8956454
08-01-17Sell Dec NZ$74.7009-18-1773.24146010,210
09-07-17Sell Dec Aussie80.3509-08-1780.75(400)(2508)
07-26-17Sell Dec Peso556008-15-1756152251515
08-08-17Buy Jan OJ133.108-22-17133,15742
07-26-17Buy Dec Coffee134.7008-15-17139.3017255808
08-01-17Buy Dec Cotton69.2608-15-1767.50(880)(4000)
07-28-17Buy Mar Sugar15.0608-15-1713.95(1243)(10089)
06-21-17Buy Dec Cocoa190108-14-1719363502194
03-15-17Buy Jun !0 Yr Note123-0806-14-17126-22343724,038
05-01-17Buy Dec Wheat483-205-08-17469-2(700)(6364)
04-24-17Sell Jul Cotton795504-26-177064(45)(273)
03-02-17Buy Jul Cocoa189704-10-1719848705454
03-21-17Buy Jun Pound1240004-10-171240000
02-16-17Sell May Meal351.804-10-17311.4404020404
02-21-17Sell WTI Oil55.4104-05-1752.00304110239
01-03-17Sell Jun Heating175.9704-03-17159.007127 19340
02-14-17 Buy Mar 10 Yr124-0902-28-17124-22406 2436
02-15-17 Buy May Cocoa195002-22-17195000
02-08-17 Buy May Corn378-002-21-17375-0(150) (1500)
01-27-17 Buy May Corn370-401-27-17367-4(150) (1500)
01-19-17 Buy Mar 30 Yr Bond115-1601-26-17149-06(2313) (4626)
10-20-16 Buy Apr Liv Cattle100.101-10-17118.97520 37600
489%2016=
$146,808
2016=
$290,748
12-16-16 Buy Mar Cocoa 219012-22-16219000
12-13-16 Buy Mar Wheat 417-212-22-16398-6(925)(8325)
12-13-16 Buy Mar Corn 364-212-22-16348(613)(6130)
10-21-16 Sell Mar Sugar 227112-02-161905409920485
10-04-16 Sell Feb Gold 1309.011-25-161181.01280012800
08-24-16 Sell Mar Yen 1004411-25-1688601485029700
10-27-16 Sell Mar Soy Oil 354411-23-163599(324)(3888)
10-20-16 Sell Feb Oil 516411-17-164770394011820
08-15-16 Buy Dec KC Wheat 444-0 08-26-16 423-6 (1013)(10130)
08-19-16 Buy Dec Wheat 446-008-24-16 425-2 (1038)(9342)
08-09-16 Sell Dec Cotton 7550 08-19-16 6850 15507750
07-07-16 Sell Sep Heat Oil 14385 08-05-16 12959 598911978
07-15-16 Sell Oct Sugar 1936 08-04-16 1953 (190)(950)
08-02-16 Buy Sep Pound13313 08-04-16 13209 (676)(1352)
07-12-16 Sell Sep Yen9703 07-29-16 9700 3774
06-08-16 Buy Sep Coffee 13990 07-25-16 14000 3774
02-08-16 Buy Sep Yen8686 07-12-16 9704 1272525450
06-29-16 Sell Dec Soy Oil3141 07-12-16 3120 1261512
07-07-16 Sell Oct Sugar2017 07-11-16 2017 00
06-21-16 Sell Dec Corn 426-4 07-08-16 360-0 332516625
03-11-16 Buy Nov Soybeans 898-4 07-06-16 1067-6 846225386
06-23-16 Sell Oct Sugar 1908 06-29-16 2023 (1288)(6440)
06-24-16Sell Nov Soybeans 1097-0 06-28-16 1108-2 (563)(1689)
03-24-16 Buy Dec Bean Meal 281.3 06-24-16 375.6 943047150
05-26-16 Buy Dec Corn409-0 06-21-16 426-4 8758750
06-02-16 Buy Dec Wheat 512-0 06-21-16502-4 (475)(4275)
05-18-16 Sell Jul Silver 1679 06-08-16 1672 350350
05-24-16Sell Aug Gold 1230.4 06-03-16 1237.4 (700)(700)
02-25-16 Buy Jun Canadian$ 7328 05-18-16 7695 3,67518375
04-25-16 Buy Jun Pound 14520 05-11-16 14474 (288)(576)
04-27-16 Sell Jul Bean Oil3340 05-09-16 3342 (12)(144)
04-01-16 Buy Jul Cotton5882 05-05-16 6205 1,6158075
04-15-16 Buy Jul Corn378-4 05-05-16 372-0 ($325)(3250)
03-01-16 Buy Jun Peso5521 05-04-16 5643 $6103050
03-02-16 Buy Jun Aussie 7222 04-27-16 7595 $3,73014920
04-19-16 Buy Jun Nat Gas 2165 04-27-16 2120 ($900)(2700)
04-19-16 Buy Jul Wheat 486-4 04-22-16 487-0 $25225
04-20-16 Buy Jul KC Wheat 500-2 04-22-16 485-4 ($738)(7380)
03-31-16Sell Jul Sugar 1559 04-18-16 1528 347.21736
02-17-16 Buy May Lumber 251.6 04-14-16 285.9 529531770
03-30-16Buy Jun Swiss 10406 04-13-16 10406 00
03-31-16 Buy Jun Euro11414 04-13-16 11348 ($825)(1650)
04-01-16 Sell Jun Unleaded 13721 04-08-16 13721 00
04-04-16 Buy Jun Nat Gas 2133 04-06-16 2021 (1120)(3360)
03-03-16 Buy Jun Palladium 532.2 04-05-16 549.6 17403480
01-04-16 Sell Jul Cotton 64.10 04-01-16 58.82 262513125
03-04-16 Buy Jun WTI Oil 385304-01-16 3863 100300
03-11-16 Buy Jul Coffee 127.70 03-31-16 12770 00
02-26-16 Buy Jul Copper21440 03-30-16 22085 16124836
03-04-16 Buy Jun Heat Oil 11305 03-29-16 11615 13022604
02-03-16 Buy May Silver 1463 03-24-16 1519 28002800
01-06-16 Buy Jun Gold1089.7 03-23-161227.2 1375013750
01-08-16 Buy Jun 5 Yr Note118-26 03-01-16 120-22 187518750
12-17-15 Sell Jul Cocoa3265 02-24-16 2928 16858425
02-09-16 Buy Jun Swiss10304 02-12-16 10282 (283)(566)
01-26-16 Buy Jul Wheat 495-0 02-04-16 482-0 (650)(5850)
01-27-16 Sell Jul Sugar 1350 02-23-16 1338 138690
02-03-16 Buy Mar Euro11089 02-18-16 11099 115230
12-24-15 Buy Jun Yen 8348 01-29-16 8442 96 12002400

Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement

This Site is for informational purposes only and should be used at each individuals own discretion.  The reader of this material agrees that they are acting of their own accord and waive the Site and its directors or affiliates of any liability associated with losses or hardships which may result from using information within the Site.

Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade.

You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown.

By using this Site, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions are your own sole responsibility, and the Site or anybody associated with the Site cannot be held responsible for any losses that are incurred as a result.

If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. It is possible to lose substantially more money than you deposited in your account, if you use leverage in your trading. This can result in a large debt to broker, and financial hardship.

Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move” or if the price “gaps” from one price to another (with no offsetting orders available between the two prices to get you out of your trade). The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.

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