Low Wage Workers Get No Respect

Category: Newsletter, Speculator, US Jobs | No Comments

Every election cycle we hear a crescendo of complaints that the poorest workers, the average Joe, are being left behind while the rich get richer. While historically the income gap between rich and poor rises when the economy grows and narrows when the economy contracts, equality seekers should feel some satisfaction…

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Fed Declares ‘Sustained Expansion’ and Low Inflation ‘Likely’

Category: Inflation, Newsletter, Speculator, Stock Market, US Economy, US Jobs | No Comments

In a moment of unprofound insight lacking sound and fury meaning absolutely nothing to investor expectations, Fed Chief Powell this past week made the most anodyne comments possible that the economy was likely to continue growing. It’s also likely that the Fed has never forecast anything but continued economic growth as…

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Sentiment Nearing Oversold

Category: Newsletter, Speculator, Stock Market | No Comments

Frequently our reports focus on the big picture of  fundamental macroeconomic factors to forecast the economic risk of a contraction or acceleration. Readers know we create a plethora of proxies to determine intrinsic value based upon history, looking at loan defaults, bond spreads, labor trends, credit standards and various surveys of consumers and businesses….

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Banking Profits on Falling Yields

Category: Newsletter, Speculator | No Comments

Astute investors know to shun bank stocks when interest rates fall. They are aware that as the gap between the interest paid on deposits and the return on loans shrink, so do net interest margins. Interest rates have fallen sharply over the past 12 months, with the 10 Year Treasury yield collapsing from 3.2%…

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