It’s been 10 years since cryptographically secure digital assets such as Bitcoin came into existence. After an abysmal 2018, some wonder if Bitcoin’s return to life in 2019 has been due to capital fleeing China to escape the effects of Trump tariffs. The charts are mixed, but lately as Chinese currency…
Petroleum prices have been coiling in recent months. US brinkmanship with Iran adds a premium, while the inexorable rise in US production favors more discounted values. If war breaks out the upper $60’s to upper $70’s is the logical target zone for WTI Crude Oil. Should the war risk be removed, then…
It’s great news that our US economy (GDP) grew a better than expected 2.1 percent in the 2nd quarter. It’s a far cry from the 3 to 5 percent Trump expects and the fluke 3.1 percent in the 1st quarter, but it’s also a long way from the recession expectations…
Our June outlook was for continued gains throughout July until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting July 30th when a rate cut would be announced. With the market fixation on the Bullish high odds prospect of a Fed Funds rate cut to 2.25 percent, there were no news events…
While the world awaits the day when the rapid growth of solar and wind supplant coal and oil, the quickest bridge to the alleged Utopian dream of clean air is Natural Gas. Europe may lead the world in Global Warming Alarmism, but the US is actually making the biggest dent in this effort without…
Since 2001 the New York Federal Reserve has compiled a manufacturing survey of the NY Empire State. It moves in step with most other Fed district surveys and provides a good measure of the industrial sector. After rising from a near recessionary collapse in early 2016 to historic growth and optimism in 2017 and 2018, the Empire…
While we often downplay the importance of the inverted yield curve with short rates above long rates, there are many other warning signs of a slowing economy (GDP), weaker earnings and falling inflation. Bond yields have now fallen back to the moribund economic days of 2016 when the energy recession…
When Trump offers an Olive branch saying “Let’s Make Iran Great Again”, he means “Let’s Make Iran Weak Again”, unless Iran makes a Sisyphean deal bowing to Trump’s wishes. Even as a candidate it was clear this President would not allow Iran to dominate the Middle East, foment terror or advance its nuclear…
Prominent St Louis Fed Chair James Bullard doesn’t like gaming investor expectations. The Federal Reserve has conveyed to the markets that they will not cut rates in June, but hinted the Fed will oblige in late July. Bullard feels that if you see weakness now that warrants lower interest rates,…
The Federal Reserve Bank was created 106 years ago to ensure the functioning of the US financial system with the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate interest rates. These goals are achieved through four mechanisms, but primarily through adjusting various central bank interest rates and the buying and…
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