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# Execspec

Stock and commodity futures market advisory by Exec Spec

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## Posts

- [A Market Waiting on November](https://execspec.net/investor-stocks-system/) - 09-10-26 Iran remains the uninvited guest at America’s feast of prosperity, and it is proving an expensive one. As Iran's planned escalation in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz does its work, crude has vaulted above $104, diesel is knocking at a record $6 a gallon, and the 10-year Treasury yield, at
- [The Middle of the Barrel Is Where the Trouble Lives](https://execspec.net/oil-stocks-sp-nvda-09-05-2026/) - The world is not running out of oil. It is merely discovering the right fuel is stranded in the wrong place, trapped behind a closed shipping lane. The present danger is not simply a shortage of crude; it is a shortage of the security and confidence required to turn crude into commerce. That distinction now
- [Commodities Reignite the Inflation Debate](https://execspec.net/stocks-bonds-notes/) - KDelta Futures Trader Comments/Portfolio: 09-03-26 Oil keeps ticking into the $90s on the escaaltion with Iran. Hard to imagine how this will do anything but escalate further into November. Diesel is sitting at record levels - hitting trucking prices. Commodities continue thier run higher to 18 year highs on the Iran conflict. Trump claims Oil
- [America's Oil Reserves Are Running Low—Hard Decisions Ahead](https://execspec.net/americas-oil-reserves-are-running-low-hard-decisions-ahead/) - Please enjoy our interview with Cris Sheridan of the Financial Sense boradcast network. Check out there FinancialSense.com site as well for a wide variety of provocative financial, economic and well being interviews. Financial Sense Network is a financial media, podcasting, and wealth management group based out of San Diego, California. Kurt Kallaus: America's Oil Reserves Are
- [The Price of Crude and the Cost of Money](https://execspec.net/yields-stocks-sp-bonds-iran-oil-august-24-2026/) - From Hormuz to the Treasury market, oil is again setting the price of risk Markets have rediscovered an old and inconvenient truth: the price of money and the price of energy are seldom strangers for long. When oil rises persistently, inflation expectations follow; when inflation expectations rise, bondholders demand compensation; and when Treasury yields climb,
- [The Bank of Nvidia: When Silicon Learns to Lend](https://execspec.net/stocks-nvda-banks-sp-ai-august-13-2026/) - The New Question Is Not Growth, but Return The headline of the week is imposing enough to remind historians of the architects of the old 1860s railroad trusts. In the great build-out of the American rail system after the Civil War, promoters frequently created construction companies they themselves controlled, then awarded those entities inflated contracts
- [Software Firming, Hardware Softening](https://execspec.net/stocks-amazon-microsoft-sp-july-31-2026/) - AI boom encounters the ancient discipline of cash flow Wall Street has rediscovered a old principle: money spent is not quite the same thing as money earned. Amazon and Microsoft reported results that were, in the customary fashion of the AI age, spectacular by ordinary standards and merely adequate by the standards investors had already
- [Waiting for Warsh: The Bond Market Has Already Voted](https://execspec.net/fed-sp-ai-stocks-cpi-july-23-2026/) - The Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting is unlikely to produce an interest-rate increase. The more consequential question is whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will telegraph a September hike—or remind investors that threatening to tighten monetary policy is easy, but considerably harder to actually do it. Current market probability pricing puts the chance of a July
- [Bull Market Resilience in an Age of Concentration](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-spacex-ai-may-30-2026/) - In the long colorful history of American enterprise, few spectacles rival the resilience of the equity markets in the age of AI. Since the post-COVID bull market took hold in earnest in 2022, the tech-heavy S&P 500 has climbed some 117 percent, while the even more concentrated Nasdaq easily outpaced, advancing almost 167 percent.By contrast,
- [Bull Market Intact, But Proceed With Caution](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-sentiment-ai-july-16-2016/) - Investors should prefer a market filled with skeptics rather than one dominated by strategists who increasingly echo the same bullish view. Consensus is often less a destination than a warning sign. ExecSpec agrees partially with Bank of America’s technical warning this week, even as BofA’s CEO continues to highlight the resilient consumer and AI-driven economy.
- [The Great Rebalancing: Small Cap, Financials, and Industrials Take the Baton](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-spacex-chips-july-10-2026/) - In the rythim of Bull markets, episodes of concentrated advance are always followed by periods of correction. The stock market rarely sustains leadership by a narrow cohort without pause. The headlong charge of Bullish investors into artificial intelligence and its semiconductor handlers has entered a necessary consolidation. The semiconductor complex, the vanguard of the artificial-intelligence wave,
- [When Inflation Runs Out of Fuel](https://execspec.net/oil-inflation-stocks-07-03-2026/) - Market participants have increasingly fixed their gaze on a small section of the investment stage. Today, investors remain transfixed by artificial intelligence, semiconductor valuations, and every diplomatic rumor drifting from the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, the most consequential development for the American economy may be occurring in plain sight—at the neighborhood gas station. The dust up
- [Blue Wave Poses Greatest Risk to AI, Data Center Buildout](https://execspec.net/blue-wave-poses-greatest-risk-to-ai-data-center-buildout/) - Blue Wave Poses Greatest Risk to AI, Data Center Buildout, Says Kurt Kallaus. Late approval for posting of the June 2nd interview with ExecSpec's Kurt Kallaus on SpaceX and IPO supply overhang and risk to AI buildout if Dem's take Congress. Hear the interview by clicking the play button below and hear many more expert
- [The Broadening of the Bull as Gas Prices Fall](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-inflation-cpi-june-18-2026/) - For much of the past four years, the stock market has resembled a Broadway production performed primarily by the seven actors, known as The Magnificent Seven. These hyperscale titans of silicon and artificial intelligence have been joined on center stage by dozens of supporting characters that support the AI buildout. With the evolving peace in
- [Of Rockets, Reasoning Engines, and Speculation](https://execspec.net/spacex-ai-stocks-sp-may-24-2026/) - By the time the public is finally invited to the IPO feast, much of the banquet has already been consumed. The stock market occasionally experiences moments when investors stop asking what a company earns and instead ask what civilization itself may become if the company succeeds. America has entered such a season again. The railroad
- [Transitory Strait](https://execspec.net/transitory-inflation-stocks-sp-may-15-2026/) - Wall Street’s capacity for selective hearing remains one of modern finance’s most reliable constants. Oil remains above $100 a barrel ($105 today). More than 10% of global oil production and export flow has now been disrupted or stranded by the widening Iran conflict and the continuing paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation has jumped
- [To Infinity and Data Centers](https://execspec.net/chips-tech-sp-stocks-data-centers-may-07-2026/) - The market has entered that peculiar phase common to great technological revolutions when skepticism still fills television panels while trillions of dollars quietly rearrange themselves beneath the surface of the economy. America is no longer merely participating in an AI boom; it is reorganizing industrial civilization around it. While there is a rising chorus from
- [Peace Priced In, Risk Deferred](https://execspec.net/iran-oil-stocks-sp-nvda-april-28-2028/) - Markets Climb While Reality Waits A year ago, markets staged a familiar drama. The S&P 500 fell nearly 20% on fears that sweeping tariffs would trigger a global recession—only to reverse sharply and reach new highs once those fears proved overstated. Today, the rhyme is unmistakable. Today, the same instinct governs investor behavior. The catalyst
- [The Strait Reopens, and Markets Breathe Again](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-oil-iran-april-08-2026/) - *{Next Newsletter expected April 27th} Markets, which only days ago wore the expression of a clenched jaw, have relaxed. The announced two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, coupled with the conditional reopening of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has shifted the narrative from scarcity to anticipation. The reaction was immediate. S&P
- [A Deadline Enters the War](https://execspec.net/war-iran-sp-stocks-oil-march-24-2026/) - The Iranian war battlefield has acquired a second front—not in the Saudi desert or in the Red Sea, but across the negotiating table. The United States, having escalated operationally, is now escalating diplomatically. President Donald Trump, in a manner consistent with his transactional instincts to pursue maximum leverage, has introduced a hard deadline—March 28th—for Iran
- [Drones Wars Over Hormuz, Markets on Edge](https://execspec.net/drones-iran-oil-stocks-march-20-2026/) - In ordinary times, investors debate earnings revisions, Federal Reserve nuance, and the subtle choreography of inflation and growth. In wartime—particularly when that war encircles the world’s most important energy chokepoint—those concerns are demoted to second-tier considerations. For now, spreadsheets have yielded to shipping lanes. What was once a steady flow of over 100 ships per
- [Prediction Markets Betting on Doom](https://execspec.net/oil-stocks-sp-interview-march-10-2026/) - March 10, 2026 – Interview with Cris Sheridan of FinancialSense.com and ExecSpec's Kurt Kallaus: After oil spiked near $120 this week, prices tumbled following President Trump’s bold claim that the conflict is nearing its end. Yet, with conflicting reports and fresh news of potential Iranian mining operations, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively paralyzed. Global
- [Dire Strait: Oil, Markets, and the Twenty Miles to Panic or Prosperity](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-oil-iran-war-march-06-2026/) - History occasionally compresses itself into geography. Religion, commerce and empires sometimes converge upon an inconveniently narrow place. Occasionally, a strip of water, such as the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, becomes a fulcrum of the global economy. In ancient times it was spice traders and today this chokepoint of waters now carry supertankers
- [AI’s Moment of Doubt — and Its Durable Demand](https://execspec.net/ai-sp-stocks-nvda-february-27-2026/) - The market waited with bated breath for Nvidia's fourth quarter earnings report - expectations inflated, speculation extravagant. The company delivered. Revenue, margins, data-center growth, and guidance all surpassed even the optimistic “whisper numbers.” For a fleeting moment, investors awarded Nvidia a valuation cresting near $5 trillion, north of $203 per share. And then—predictably—the stock fell
- [Markets Reconsider the AI Revolution as Knowledge Becomes Liability](https://execspec.net/stocks-ai-economy-sp-february-16-2026/) - Three years ago, when artificial intelligence first captured our collective imagination, capital allocators and investors viewed it with the reverence of the Gods. Today, those same investors regard AI with the wariness of opening Pandora's box, uncertain what manner of disruption might escape to infect the economy of margin-rich, knowledge-based businesses. This shift in perspective—from
- [From Superstars to the Bench: The Market Rediscovers Team Sports](https://execspec.net/superbowl-stocks-mags-sp-february-2026/) - The Magnificent Seven's Stumble On the day the New England Patriots pursue their seventh Lombardi Trophy, the stock market, like professional football, periodically rediscovers that no contest is won by stars alone. For much of 2023 through late 2025, American equities behaved as though this axiom had been repealed. The “Super Bowl Index” of stocks—those
- [Trump’s Loud Stick Diplomacy—and Why Markets Keep Betting on It](https://execspec.net/trump-greenland-tariff-stocks-sp-january-24-2026/) - President Teddy Roosevelt famously advised leaders to speak softly and carry a big stick.China’s Xi Jinping practices a modern variation: speak softly and carry a big wallet.President Donald Trump's aphorism, by contrast, prefers to talk loudly and swing a big stick early—often angrily, publicly, and without apology. It offends diplomats, unnerves allies, scares investors and
- [Aerospace Redemption: Breaking the Chains of Regulatory Slumber](https://execspec.net/aerospace-boeing-stocks-sp-january-19-2026/) - The pedestrian consensus, ever eager to mistake tectonic shifts for mere tremors, has at last begun to discern what has been evident for some time: the aerospace sector is not indulging in a transient "sugar high." We are witnessing the dawn of a genuine renaissance, one that follows a protracted regulatory prison. The institutional chain
- [Trumpian Sprint to November: A Race Against the Calendar and the Courts as the Bull Market Broadens](https://execspec.net/stocks-gdp-oil-january-08-2026/) - The political calendar casts an increasingly long shadow over the Trump administration. With the November 2026 mid-term elections looming, President Trump finds himself engaged in a furious, multi-front campaign for the very preservation of his executive authority and, some would argue, his post-presidency tranquility. The stakes are high: a failure to maintain Republican majorities in
- [A Tale of Two Economies: Bulge Bracket Dominance, Boutique Bank Weakness, and the Financial Haves and Have-Nots](https://execspec.net/economy-banks-spy-iwm-stocks-december-20-2025/) - From its crude decentralized origins in Medieval times, investment banking has rewarded those who could assemble capital quickly and with scale. Modern banking essentially began with the House of Morgan in the late 1800's and was enshrined as THE banking powerhouse after the Panic of 1907. The failed attempt to corner the Copper market triggered
- [Paradox of the Prosperous Pessimist: On Consumer Sentiment and Economic Reality](https://execspec.net/consumer-sp-stocks-economy-gdp-december-2025/) - In Washington, the President labors, with the characteristic futility of all chief executives, to persuade the public that prices are falling. This is a Sisyphean task. Affordability is the new buzzword that has triggered endless anti-Trump campaign speeches from the Left and a equally robust response from the Right asserting that they are fixing the
- [Vexations of Volatility: Rare Earths, Tariffs, and the Twitter-Fueled Market Whiplash](https://execspec.net/stcoks-sp-china-tariffs-october-2025/) - At the speed of a social media impulse the financial markets endured a perfect micro-storm brewed from Beijing’s resource nationalism and Washington’s penchant for trade-war brinkmanship. The temperamental vagaries of Trump's Twitter feed sent the stock market down 3% from record highs, its deepest single day drop since April 21st. The immediate trigger for the
- [The Reluctant Rally: Highs Within Reach, But Worries Prevail](https://execspec.net/market-sp-stocks-december-09-2025/) - The financial markets are pulsating with collective hope and anxiety. As we stand on the cusp of year end 2025 and more , the bull market, now entering its robust fourth year, defies the usual seasonal torpor, presenting a tableau of statistical certainties and political contingencies. One need not be a soothsayer, merely a student
- [OpenAI and the High Stakes of the Digital Field of Dreams](https://execspec.net/openai-chatgpt-gemini-nvda-december-03-2025/) - The current market fervor surrounding OpenAI is merely the latest, most extravagant chapter in this enduring narrative that may have begun with a Swiftian satire on human ambition. In the early 1700's Swift wrote "Gulliver's Travels" that talked about an algorithmic Engine to generate text, much as AI performs today. The concept of a "thinking
- [Nvidia’s Trillion-Dollar Tremors: A Salubrious Setback in the Midst of an AI Arms Race](https://execspec.net/nvidia-tsm-ai-openai-november-26-2025/) - Less than four weeks ago, Nvidia briefly crested the $5 trillion valuation summit, an altitude that promptly elicited the usual chorus of Cassandra-like admonitions about bubbles ready to pop. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq duly obliged with declines of 5% and 9% respectively (merely courteous corrections by the standards of recent memory, rather than the
- [AI's Trillion-Dollar Tango: Navigating Peak Valuations and Unprecedented Concentration Risk](https://execspec.net/ai-stocks-nvda-oracle-november-13-2025/) - The tulip mania of 17th-century Holland and the US railroad enthusiasms of the 1870's pale beside the scale and velocity of capital now flooding into artificial intelligence infrastructure. The prevailing anxiety among market observers is not whether this technological upheaval holds genuine promise, but whether the fervor has raced ahead of the practical ability to
- [Temporary Truces and Blow-Off Tops – Markets Await Supreme Court Showdown](https://execspec.net/stocks-gold-scotus-11-04-25/) - Temporary Truces and Blow-Off Tops – Markets Await Supreme Court Showdown Financial Sense @ Financialsense.com interviewed Exec Spec's Kurt Kallaus October 30, 20205
- [Trump’s Plan: State Capitalism in an “America First” Costume](https://execspec.net/trump-tariff-stocks-nvda-october-03-2025/) - Washington has again demonstrated its talent for irony. A Republican president—avowed foe of “socialism” and devotee of free markets—has chosen, with characteristic bravado, to adopt the most un-American of economic instruments: the government’s heavy hand on the tiller of industry. Donald Trump’s second presidency has unveiled a program of state capitalism that is at once
- [Market Fear Persists at All-Time Highs](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-sentiment-china-trump-october-26-2025/) - The stock indices, having vaulted the ramparts of their previous peaks even as the CNN Fear Index incongruously registers in the 'Fear' zone, a testament to the market's politically-induced vertigo. To observe the confluence of four major events crammed into the next two weeks is to understand that this financial buoyancy is less a testament
- [Gold and the Retreat from Pax Americana: The Price of Sovereignty](https://execspec.net/gold-china-trump-october-22-2025/) - The recent, almost parabolic ascent of gold has confounded conventional analysis. For too long, the price action of this storied metal has been assayed against familiar, if increasingly frayed, metrics: the immediate pressures of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy or the immediate vigor of the U.S. Dollar. Yet, in recent quarters, Gold has demonstrated an
- [Stocks Leveraged to the Hilt, Yet Investors Remain Buoyantly Solvent](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-economy-september-26-2025/) - Since the 2008 mortgage crack-up, quantitative easing—the conjuring of dollars by decree—has become less a remedy than a ritual, like keeping the weakening economy alive with energy drinks instead of the neccessary surgery. Investors, consumers, and entrepreneurs having no alternative, have warily accepted the medicine while fretting over the profligacy of mounting liabilities and alarming
- [Stock Market Recovery: From Tariff Tumble to Trump-Era Gains](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-tariff-september-19-2025/) - The economic tempest unleashed by tariffs in April 2025 has given way to a recovery so vigorous it evokes the halcyon days of President Trump’s first term, a testament to the market’s remarkable capacity to forgive and adapt as it rides the crest of an AI-driven prosperity wave. The S&P 500, having endured what analysts
- [Tariff Overreach: Constitutional Curbs on Presidential Power](https://execspec.net/trump-scotus-sp-stocks-september-03-2025/) - America's constituional founders created a masterpiece of instructions for running a Republic with checks and balances. President Trump's usurpation of tariff powers from the Legislative Branch strain against constitutional confines. The framers, ever vigilant against concentrated authority, entrusted Congress with the prerogative to impose tariffs. Thus it should not be a suprise that courts at
- [Powell’s Rate Cut Signal Sparks Market Optimism Amid Economic Data Ambiguity](https://execspec.net/fed-rates-cpi-gdp-sp-august-22-2025/) - In the great American pastime of deciphering economic signals, policymakers and investors often navigate a fog of uncertainty. On August 22, 2025, Federal Reserve Chair Powell pierced that haze with clarity: “A downward adjustment in the Fed’s benchmark rate may be warranted,”, sending stocks soaring with the Dow leaping over 846 points. Jerome Powell’s remarks
- [Inflation Rises Only in Services, Easing Investor Fears](https://execspec.net/cpi-inflation-stocks-sp-economy-august-15-2025/) - In the ceaseless churn of economic data, few documents elicit such anticipation as the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.. The July figures, unveiled in mid-August, have not disappointed in their capacity to stir the markets—though, with inflation below the feared levels of yesteryear's inflationary spikes, investors applauded. Core inflation, that less volatile measure excluding
- [When the Consumer Taps the Brakes and Jobs Lose Momentum](https://execspec.net/jobs-economy-stocks-sp-august-052025/) - Consumption, that unflappable force of America's GDP, accounts for 70% of national output—a tribute to our free enterprise economic structure as well as the cravings of our republic’s world beating shoppers. In the peculiar aftermath of the Covid stimulus bonanza, our economy has raced ahead, buttressed by persistent consumer strides and an insatiable artificial intelligence
- [The Stock Market Oracle and the Resilience of the American Consumer](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-economy-tariffs-july-23-2025/) - The US stock market, despite its fickle sentiment, continues to serve as a forward-looking oracle, parsing the nation’s collective future through its proverbial ticker tape. Despite presidential curveballs aimed at resetting global trade in favor of the US, bewildered investors ultimately found footing, inflation expectations cooled, and corporate earning forecasts regained their upward march. The
- [Make Eggs Cheap Again and Why Fed Rates Are Over Hard](https://execspec.net/eggs-inflation-fed-stocks-july-10-2025/) - Presidents are known for political theater and the recurring theme of the rhetorical victory lap—sometimes when accompanied by breakfast. In early June, President Donald J. Trump took to the podium and proclaimed, with characteristic flair, that egg prices had "dropped 400%." For those of us schooled in both arithmetic and understatement, this sounded less like
- [Battle for Middle Earth: China's Rare Earth Dominion](https://execspec.net/china-rare-earth-tariff-stocks-june-18-2025/) - The battle for rare earth minerals, though less fantastical than the struggle for Tolkien’s Middle Earth, holds no less consequence for global dominion, with China wielding a near-monopoly that looms over the United States’ industrial and military might. This contest is a high-stakes poker game where both nations—China and the U.S.—clutch potent cards yet fear
- [From Missiles to Markets: The Escalating Israel–Iran Conflict and Its Financial Fallout](https://execspec.net/stocks-oil-sp-israel-iran-june-13-2025/) - During Trump's first term we expected he would ring fence Iran, forcing a military engagement, knowing Iranian leaders would never submit to an enforceable nuclear agreement.A devastating Oil embargo against Tehran was the outcome, but he ran out of time to tighten the noose around Iran's malicious ambitions before the Biden administration replaced him.
- [From Menace to Minuet: The Artful Lurch of American Trade Diplomacy](https://execspec.net/trump-tariffs-sp-stocks-economy-may-2025/) - Our current leader—often characterized as transactional and undeniably mercurial—embodies a presidency defined by disruption rather than tradition. His recent display of aggressive threats last month, followed by an Arab diplomatic “lovefest” this week, exemplify a sui generis style: unorthodox, unpredictable, yet undeniably strategic. While critics label him reckless or capricious, they overlook the deliberate architecture
- [Redoubtable Results: Trump, the Economy, and the Persistence of Doubt](https://execspec.net/stocks-trump-gdp-july-04-2025/) - Defying the doubters, tariff inflation and labor contraction have yet to arrive, trade deals are being done and the Big Beautiful Bill miraculously passed. In a political and economic landscape littered with the debris of dire predictions, Donald Trump’s economic agenda has at times appeared to resemble a drunken driver on a race track bouncing between
- [Summer Top, September Pullback, and Next Major Move](https://execspec.net/financial-sense-interview-june-26-2025/) - Click play to hear our most recent interview on June 26th, 2025 with Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense (FS) (www.financialsense.com/podcast). The FS group are money managers with a premeire finacial podcast we suggest everyone sign up for. Summer Top, September Pullback, and Next Major Move
- [Prosperity Without Exuberance: The rally marches on](https://execspec.net/stocks-sentiment-sp-tariff-june-25-2025/) - The stock market, that capricious weathervane of collective expectation, rarely trades in the present; rather, it is forever engaged in the speculative commerce of tomorrow. In February, with Wall Street’s gaze fixed upon the prospect of Trump 2.0, major indices continued skyward, buoyed by the intoxicating cocktail of deregulation dreams and corporate tax cuts. Inflation
- [Booming Words vs. Pessimistic Surveys](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-bulls-gdp-june-05-2025/) - The American economy, in the telling of President Donald Trump, is a juggernaut, careening toward prosperity with the force of a campaign promise and the most beautiful word - tariffs. His rhetoric is a vivid tapestry of superlatives, woven from robust GDP projections, enviably low unemployment figures and cherry picked data. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s
- [Tariff Tango: Perception’s Sway Over Markets](https://execspec.net/tariff-sp-stocks-trump-may-22-2025/) - In the endless drama of markets, perception takes the starring role, while reality resides in the shadows. Mercurial investors care less for the truth than for the consensus that shapes their bets. In recent months, the specter of President Trump’s tariff policies has been the script guiding this drama, with markets rising and falling on
- [Pain Before Prosperity: Trump’s High-Wire Trade Reckoning](https://execspec.net/trump-tariffs-china-stocks-sp-april-2025/) - In life we often hear that acheivement entails short-term pain for long-term gain. Donald Trump’s trade strategy—a calculated plunge into uncertainty, is predicated on the notion that short-term dislocation can yield enduring prosperity. Like a poker player pushing all chips to the center, Trump wagers that America’s unmatched consumer might can bend global trade to
- [The Deal and the Deluge: Trump’s Economic Brinkmanship](https://execspec.net/trump-tariffs-trade-stocks-sp-april-2025/) - In the annals of American economic policy, few gambits have rivaled the audacity of President Trump’s tariff offensive, and the high-stakes poker of modern geopolitics. With a flourish of rhetoric at his second inauguration that most felt was replete with hyperbole, Trump pledged to exact a toll on the world’s exporters for the privilege of
- [Gold's Ascendancy Amid Tariff Tensions](https://execspec.net/trade-tariffs-gold-china-april-24-2025/) - In the half-century since the United States abandoned the gold standard, that lustrous metal has stood as a bulwark against financial tempests. Conventional wisdom ties gold's price surges to erratic inflation or an obese money supply, yet its truest dance partner remains the inverse of the U.S. dollar's value. Today, a new specter looms: the
- [The Tariff Gambit: A High-Stakes Reckoning](https://execspec.net/tariff-trump-stocks-recession-april-4-2025/) - Uncertainty, that boogeyman of commerce, has descended upon the American psyche with the subtlety of a sledgehammer. Investors and entrepreneurs, those intrepid navigators of risk, recoil from ambiguity as though it were a contagion. And yet, ambiguity is precisely what President Trump has delivered in spades with his latest trade salvo—a policy as audacious as
- [Trump's 25% Tariffs on Imports – Get Ready for What's Next](https://execspec.net/trump-tariffs-stocks-recession-march-2025/) - Listen here to the ExecSpec being interviewed by Cris Sheridan of the Financial Sense News Network ( financialsense.com/podcast ) 3/27/25 With Trumps Liberation Day on April 2nd, he is on a short leash with investors and business leaders to wrap up his trade wars before negative sentiment becomes self-fulfilling later this year. Should the tariff
- [The Dollar's Decline Amid Trump Tariffs and the Path to Recovery](https://execspec.net/dollar-swiss-yen-trump-tariffs-march-28-2025/) - In the complex dance of global economics, where national currencies pirouette to the rhythms of political ambition, we find ourselves witnessing a particularly intricate performance orchestrated by the Trump administration's trade policy. What began as a triumphant march of American economic exceptionalism last October—with stock markets and the dollar ascending like a conquering army—has metamorphosed
- [Markets Adrift: Suspended Between Tariff Fear and Oversold Opportunities](https://execspec.net/stocks-tariff-trump-march-19-2025/) - In the seafaring days of old, the sextant guided mariners through uncertain waters, its precision bringing order to the vagaries of ocean navigation. Sailors had relied upon measuring angles between stars and the horizon to steer the oceans quite accurately. Today's financial helmsmen find themselves similarly reliant upon instruments of measurement, albeit ones of considerably
- [Three Notable Currencies to Outperform the USD in 2025?](https://execspec.net/swiss-canadian-dollar-kiwi-currency-january-2025/) - In what amounts to a peculiar economic spectacle, three historically stalwart currencies — those reliable barometers of prudent fiscal management — find themselves engaged in a synchronized descent that would give pause to even the most seasoned monetary theorist. The Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar, each traditionally emblematic of sound money, are
- [Persistent Market Optimism Amid Inflationary Winds](https://execspec.net/cpi-inflation-stocks-tariffs-february-14-2025/) - On the stage of economic performance we find ourselves witness to a peculiar phenomenon: the resurrection of inflation from its presumed tomb while traders bid up equities with abandon. After a biennial retreat of price pressures that would have satisfied even Paul Volcker's ghost, the past four months has presented us with a revival that
- [Trump Tariff Threats Shake Investor Confidence](https://execspec.net/tariff-trump-stocks-sentiment-february-28-2025/) - In the theater of American economic policy, we find ourselves witnessing a particularly instructive drama. President Trump's threatened tariff regime has introduced an element of uncertainty into market calculations that even the most sanguine investor cannot wholly dismiss. Trump's "Art of the Deal" is embodied by risk taking and public pressure. The administration's approach to
- [Not So Terrifying Tariffs](https://execspec.net/trump-tariffs-stocks-sp-february-2025/) - In the grand theater of American economic policy, where the ghosts of Presidents Alexander Hamilton and William McKinley still whisper their protectionist theories, we find ourselves witnessing a remarkable resurgence of tariffs as instruments of statecraft. The current administration, with a directness that would have pleased Andrew Jackson, has deployed these fiscal implements not merely
- [Deepseek Fails to Deep-Six Mag 7](https://execspec.net/deepseek-mag7-nvda-sp-stocks-january-31-2025/) - The term "deep-six," originating from nautical terminology in the 1920s, refers to the act of throwing items overboard into a six-foot watery grave, symbolizing an end or disposal of something. Today, this term is being invoked in discussions about the potential disruption caused by China's Deepseek, which claims to have developed an advanced AI large
- [Trump Inauguration: Energy, Bitcoin, and Nuclear in Focus](https://execspec.net/trump-inauguration-energy-bitcoin-nuclear/) - Play the January 15th interview with ExecSpec's Kurt Kallaus and Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense Network ( www.financialsense.com/podcast ). Energy, Bitcoin, and Nuclear in Focus Interview summary: January 15, 2025 – Is the Trump trade back after a two-month consolidation? Cris Sheridan and Kurt Kallaus at ExecSpec.net discuss investment implications of Trump's upcoming inauguration
- [The Paradox: The Bad News Is the Economy Is Strong](https://execspec.net/gdp-sp-bitcoin-yields-cpi-january-2025/) - In 2024, the U.S. economy added a remarkable 2.2 million jobs, surpassing pre-pandemic levels of job creation. The previous month, the labor market maintained its vigorous momentum, with unemployment dipping to 4.1%. Payrolls surged by an impressive 256,000, job openings lingered at a robust 8.1 million, and wages experienced a nearly 4% year-over-year increase. Corporate
- [Stocks Euphoria Ebbs as New Stage of Economic Expansion Anticipated](https://execspec.net/stocks-gdp-cpi-trump-sp-january-2024/) - For two and a half years, a dwindling cadre of bearish forecasters has insisted that the sun will not rise tomorrow if the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continue their downward trajectory. Remarkably, this is the first instance in which such an extended LEI contraction has not presaged economic upheaval. The myopia of these analysts is
- [Stock Market Jitters in Response to Fed's Hawkish Tone](https://execspec.net/stock-sp-inflation-december-21-2024/) - On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve, in a move that surprised few, announced a quarter-point reduction in the Fed Funds rate. However, the accompanying guidance hinted at fewer rate cuts in the coming year than market participants had anticipated. Investors had hoped for a more dovish stance, particularly against a backdrop of stubborn inflation
- [Trump 2.0: Riding the Wave of Small Business Optimism to Stock Market Success](https://execspec.net/trump-optimism-sp-stocks-december-2024/) - In the annals of American political economy, few figures have catalyzed such pronounced optimism as Donald Trump. His initial presidency, dubbed Trump 1.0, was characterized by a robust playbook: tax cuts, domestic energy production, and a reliance on tariffs and sanctions abroad. The moment Trump was elected in November 2016, a remarkable surge in small
- [The Red Pill Economy: Navigating the Trump Trade Post-Election](https://execspec.net/trump-stocks-sp-bitcoin-november-23-2024/) - In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, consensus among pollsters and financial strategists suggested a neck-and-neck race, with a split Congress as the likely outcome. Yet, in a nod to the unpredictable nature of electoral politics—akin to the "Red or Blue Pill" scene from The Matrix—our pre-election analysis leaned toward an outlier scenario: a Republican
- [AI Needs Natural Gas Before Going Nuclear](https://execspec.net/ai-gas-nuclear-stocks-sp-november-2024/) - In the grand theater of our technology-driven economy, data centers have emerged as the indispensable backstage, tirelessly storing, processing, and disseminating the vast oceans of data that fuel our digital lives. With over 10,000 dedicated data centers worldwide, nearly a quarter reside in the United States, a testament to our central role in this burgeoning
- [America Decides: Red Pill or Blue Pill](https://execspec.net/america-decides-red-pill-or-blue-pill/) - Click the play button below to hear Kurt Kallaus of ExecSpec being interveiwed by Cris Sheridan of the Financial Sense Newshour discussing the November 5th election on election day as well as the stock market, economy and powering of data centers. FSN is a great site to hear varied discussions about financial markets and the
- [Do Investors Want the Red Pill or Blue Pill?](https://execspec.net/election-stocks-bonds-bitcoin-november-2024/) - In the convoluted theater of American politics, the seasoned viewer may recall a pivotal moment in "The Matrix," where Morpheus presents Neo with a stark choice: the blue pill, offering comfort within the bounds of the familiar, or the red pill, inviting him into a world of the unforeseen. This cinematic dichotomy has a parallel
- [The Resilience of American Capitalism Amidst Contradictions](https://execspec.net/investment-sp-stocks-october-25-2024/) - In an era characterized by elevated interest rates, geopolitical instability, and consumer sentiment entrenched in a recessionary bunker for the last two years, one might incredulously assess the stock market's persistent ascent, appreciating at over twice its historical rate. Yet, the prevailing consumer malaise belies realities revealed in their spending habits and financial statements, suggesting
- [The 2024 No Landing Economy](https://execspec.net/economy-gdp-labor-october-2024/) - For nearly three years, the chattering class has been locked in a Sisyphean debate, toggling between the notions of a soft landing and a recessionary hard landing. For a time, we leaned toward the optimistic prospect of a soft landing; however, recent data suggests that we might already have endured our proverbial waiting for Godot
- [The Fragility of China’s Economic Ascendancy: An Unsettling Reality Check](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-debt-china-october-03-2024/) - As we observe the shifting sands of global economics, the long-anticipated secular headwinds against China’s decades-long rise are becoming undeniable. The specter of sharply higher trade barriers and a declining population coupled with waning consumer demand looms large, signaling that China’s days of untrammeled growth are finished. The tide of deglobalization, marked by a revival
- [Coincident Metrics Lead the Leading Indicators](https://execspec.net/lei-cei-stocks-sp-september-2024/) - For decades, wealth managers and economists have placed considerable faith in the shimmering orb of leading economic indicators (LEI), confidently employing them to chart the trajectories of investment assets and the broader economy. Components of the LEI—such as unemployment claims, new durable goods orders, and consumer confidence—have served as steadfast navigational aids in guiding future
- [Investor Whiplash Over Speed of Rate Cuts](https://execspec.net/bonds-sp-stocks-cpi-fed-09-13-24/) - Investors and forecasters often fall prey to the twin dangers of alarmism and overzealous anticipation of monetary policy shifts. The Federal Reserve's communications have been nothing if not transparent and decidedly hawkish during the past two years, consistently signaling higher interest rates ahead. Yet, against this backdrop, many market managers clung to calls for cuts,
- [Rewinding of Yen Carry Trade Unwind](https://execspec.net/yen-stocks-sp-nvda-august-22-24/) - For an extended period, Japan has adhered to a monetary regimen that, in essence, sidesteps the traditional weapon of rising interest rates in the fight against inflation. Since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained a stimulative central bank borrowing rate stubbornly near zero, resulting in
- [Buy the Dip Market, Bank Tightening Reversal & Delinquency Normalization](https://execspec.net/market-retest-bank-tightening-reversal-delinquency-normalization/) - Kurt Kallaus interview with FSN.com 8-13-24 on Market Retest, Bank Tightening Reversal, and Delinquency Normalization Trading range for stocks, but still a Buy the big dip environment Risk to Oil is lower despite risk of Iranian proxy strike on Israel Gold: too late to be a buyer here at record highs. Canadian$ & Swiss are
- [Oil Markets Expecting Measured Retaliation by Iran](https://execspec.net/oil-iran-israel-stocks-august-2024/) - In October 2023, the geopolitical landscape shifted dramatically when Hamas, one of Iran's military proxies, launched a shocking raid into Israel. The ensuing conflict has escalated beyond most analysts' expectations, with Israel resolutely committing to dismantling Hamas’s grip on Gaza. Notably, Israel's recent surgical strike that eliminated the Hamas leader—while he was comfortably ensconced in
- [R Word Returns, but Sahm Rules are Meant to be Broken](https://execspec.net/sahm-recession-stocks-cpi-august-5th-2024/) - In July, the Yen carry trade unwound and the US unemployment rate ascended to an unexpected high of 4.3%, thereby thrusting the specter of recession into the headlines and unsettling investors. This rise, from an almost historic low unemployment a year prior to the highest level since 2021, has invigorated proponents of the dreaded "R
- [Mag 7 Correction is Mirror Image of Small Cap Ascension](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-nasdaq-bull-correction-july-26-2024/) - The stock market, particularly buoyed by the mega-capitalization AI technology sector, remains at the helm of a 21-month bull market. Currently, this seemingly robust trajectory is undergoing a standard correction, having persisted for over two weeks, while small-cap equities have surged into prominence. As we reflect on insights shared in our recent July 3rd newsletter,
- [Small Cap Pop on Rate Cut Hopes: Q3 Correction Looms](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-russell-fed-july-19-2024/) - In the aftermath of the post-COVID bear market's nadir in October 2022, American equity indices staged a remarkable resurgence, achieving record highs by early 2024—a gain exceeding 60%. The first half of 2024 experienced the most robust performance of any election year since the 1970s. Throughout this low volatiltiy ascent, small-cap stocks languished within striking
- [Lower Mortgage Rates Needed for Housing Deflation](https://execspec.net/mortgage-housing-inflation-stocks-july-2024/) - During the zenith of the lingering Home Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) inflation in mid-2023, a notable dichotomy materialized: while the Zillow rent inflation benchmark had been descending for a year to less than 5% rate, the official OER was still over 8%. Since then, OER retains a 5.4% tenant inflation today despite the more accurate
- [Mag 7 Stocks Going Parabolic Raises Caution Flag](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-nasdaq-mag7-july-2024/) - The counsel from financial advisors advocating a portfolio heavily concentrated in the stock market, particularly growth stocks, as a cornerstone for young investors has continued amidst a backdrop of extraordinary returns propped up by governmental and Federal Reserve interventions over the last 15 years. Some advisors have gone so far as to endorse an overly
- [Petrodollar Paranoia Unlikely to Dethrone King Dollar](https://execspec.net/petrodollar-dollar-stocks-june-29-2024/) - Since the pivotal Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944, the world's central banks have relied on the stability of the U.S. dollar as the linchpin for their currencies. The dollar's influence extends to most global commodities, with its dominance in trade persisting since the aftermath of World War II. While U.S. dollar reserves overseas have gradually
- [Nvidia Goes Parabolic, Maybe Hyperbolic](https://execspec.net/nvidia-stocks-sp-june-20-2024/) - In the autumnal month of November 2022, the advent of ChatGPT's gift of complimentary artificial intelligence unto the populace heralded the commencement of what one might call the AI and Nvidia-fueled Bull market. The lexicon exalting Nvidia's stratospheric valuation and sales supernova stood justified for the past 20 months, a period where its shares ascended
- [Apple Joins the 3 Trillion Club](https://execspec.net/apple-nvida-stocks-3trillion-june-2024/) - In July 2023 Apple became the first $3 trillion company. Over the past 11 months the stock languished while earnings grew into their lofty valuation multiples. Now with tailwind of a massive $110 billion share repurchase program on the heels of $180 billion shares that were bought the previous couple of years, AAPL is once
- [Lower for Longer Unemployment Reaches 70 Year Milestone](https://execspec.net/unemployment-inflation-stocks-sahm-june-2024/) - In an era where economic indicators are scrutinized with increasing fervor, the current landscape offers a blend of optimism and caution. Unemployment, a perennial bellwether of economic health, has been enjoying a prolonged slumber below the 4% mark, reminiscent of a bygone era in the 1950s and 60s. Against this backdrop of plentiful jobs and
- [Economic Slowing is Good News, For Now](https://execspec.net/inflation-gdp-pce-stocks-sp-june-2024/) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has demonstrated remarkable deftness in navigating the period of heightened inflation that he and the government set in motion in 2021. Since injecting 4.8 trillion of free liquidity into the financial system during and after the Covid crisis, Powell effectively managed to assuage investor concerns of surging interest rates by offering
- [Don't Sell in May and Go Away](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-seasonality-may-31-24dont-sell-in-may-and-go-away/) - For many years, the well-known adage heralded by the Stock Trader's Almanac advising to "Sell in May and Go Away" until October held its ground. Since 1928, this period from May to October traditionally showcased a downturn in stock market performance, contrasting starkly with the robust equity returns observed in the other half of the
- [Kurt Kallaus on Nvidia, Broader Market Outlook, and Pre-Election Sell-Off](https://execspec.net/kurt-kallaus-on-nvidia-broader-market-outlook-and-pre-election-sell-off/) - FinancialSense.com Cris Sheridan interviews ExecaSpec's Kurt Kallaus May 29, 2024
- [Do Investors Care Who Wins the Election?](https://execspec.net/election-biden-trump-stocks-may-24-2024/) - Polls are basically saying that Trump is seen as the change-agent for our economy and immigration compared to Biden. But let's be real, giving all the credit or blame to just one person for how things turn out economically ignores the enormous power of central banks monetary policy, economic cycles and exogenous events like Covid
- [AI Poster Child, Nvidia Delivers Stimulus Package](https://execspec.net/ai-nvda-sp-stocks-may-23-2024/) - Jensen Huang, the visionary force behind Nvidia and a titan in the realm of Artificial Intelligence (AI), orchestrated an oxymoronic financial triumph that unsurprisngly exceeded consensus forecasts. The company's quarterly report, released yesterday, outstripped all expectations, heralding a surge in investor enthusiasm and propelling Nvidia's market capitalization to unprecedented heights of $2.6 trillion. In the
- [False Flag of Stagflation and the Goldilocks Economy](https://execspec.net/stagflation-stocks-sp-nvda-may-17-2024/) - Stagflation, that delightful economic conundrum where growth grinds to a halt while prices soar, has a rich history. First whispered in the corridors of Britain in 1965, it truly hit its stride in the groovy 1970s stateside. The '70s, a time when bell-bottoms were in vogue, disco ruled the airwaves, and the Gold Standard was
- [Stock and Bond Investors Get the Green Light from Fed](https://execspec.net/stock-bond-sp-stocks-may-10-2024/) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent actions have demonstrated a keen interest in bolstering the confidence of stock and bond market bulls, going beyond his traditional mandate of maximizing employment while maintaining low and stable inflation. In 2022, Powell effectively removed excess premiums from the stock market, and he has since made it clear that
- [Higher Rates Imply Strong Profits](https://execspec.net/bonds-yields-sp-stocks-may-3-2024/) - In 2022, the Federal Reserve found itself grappling with the highest inflation rates seen in 40 years. This led to a selloff of overvalued stocks, driven by concerns that the impending tighter monetary policy would usher in an economic recession. A multitude of indicators with impeccable pedigrees, including Leading Indicators, Purchasing Managers, and Inverted Yield
- [Investors Remember What Rates Did Last Summer](https://execspec.net/sp500-pce-cpi-bonds-april-2024/) - In recent months, the specter of rising interest rates looms large over the market, evoking memories of past episodes of inflationary concerns. Investors in equities vividly recall the abrupt halt to their bullish streak when the 10-Year Treasury yield breached 4.3% last September and once again on April 2nd of this year. The ascent of
- [Solar Event Eclipses Taylor Swift Boost to GDP](https://execspec.net/eclipse-nvda-sp-stocks-april-2024/) - In a recent Bankrate survey conducted in January, nearly half of Americans expressed doubt in their ability to muster $1,000 in the face of an emergency. However, when it comes to Swifties attending football games to catch a glimpse of their pop icon or flying across the country to witness a black dot - aka
- [No Fed Fear Buoys Investors](https://execspec.net/fed-sentiment-nvda-stocks-march-2024/) - The mandate of the Fed is price stability with maximum employment. In the intricate tapestry of economic policy, where every stitch is carefully woven into the fabric of the market, the Federal Reserve finds itself at a pivotal juncture. Employment has been maximized for over 2 years, goods inflation is stable, but the heavy hand
- [Commercial Real Estate's False Flag](https://execspec.net/loans-delinquency-economy-03-2024/) - As we have shown before, it's statistically one of the worst times to buy houses in history given mortgage rates and price appreciation compared to disposable income. Yet, there are no signs of stress in the housing market with historically low levels of delinquencies. When trouble arrives at one's doorstep it will be after mortgage
- [Seasonality Slowing Bull Stampede, Briefly](https://execspec.net/seasonality-sp-nvda-ai-march-2024/) - The unwavering momentum characterizing the Bull market surge toward stocks, particularly spearheaded by chip-related firms, has been nothing short of remarkable. A remarkable streak of twenty-one weeks marked by gains, scarcely marred by a correction exceeding 3%. The unyielding march of the Nvidia/AI upswing persists in amassing sidelined funds, biding their time for more enticing
- [An Omen? Nvidia Breaks Single Day Loss Record](https://execspec.net/nvidia-sp-stocks-bull-march-10-2024/) - In the world of Wall Street wizards where numbers dance around like sugar plum fairies, it's common to experience irrational exuberance followed by rational resignation by investors. Nvidia has become the titan of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and experienced both of these emotions in Friday's rollercoaster ride, with seasoned investors securing their wallets. After basking in
- [Kurt Kallaus on the Nvidia Bull Market, Top Warnings, and Misleading Indicators](https://execspec.net/kurt-kallaus-nvidia-bull-02-2024/) - Kurt Kallaus on the Nvidia Bull Market, Top Warnings, and Misleading Indicators 02-21-24 (follow this and more on Financialsense.com - The Financial Sense News Network)
- [Inflation Surprise Fails to Dampen Stock Market rally](https://execspec.net/inflation-stock-sp-nvda-february-19-2024/) - As the mega tech rally keeps dragging the equity Bull market along, our Federal Reserve seems to have misplaced the punch bowl while waiting for high inflation to kick the bucket. The glory days of 2020 and 2021 saw the stock market partying hard on the Fed's zero-interest-rate cocktails and government handouts, but in 2022,
- [More Fossil Fuels, Better Environment](https://execspec.net/oil-gas-energy-opec-stocks-january-2024/) - The climate alarm over carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continues to rage with new mandates to force drivers into electric vehicles - that are electrically powered primarily by fossil fuels. The good news is that the US leads the world in CO2 elimination with emissions falling to 40-year lows today. Meanwhile India and China lead the
- [Record Debt and Credit Scores Boost Financials](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-bonds-financials-february-2024/) - Achieving a perfect 850 credit score is the Sisyphean effort to grasp a budgetary grail rarely seen in the hallowed halls of credit agencies. While just 1% of Americans have currently scaled Mount Olympus, almost half of adults have a lofty 715 or higher score. Boomers and older generations average about 750 while the 42
- [mis-Leading Indicators Underestimate the Economy and Stocks](https://execspec.net/nvda-stocks-economy-february-2024/) - Every major financial institution along with an enormous cottage industry of individual analysts collect a plethora of data on the economy in an effort to glean the future. The US creates and shares more macro-financial metrics than any country on the planet on the economy. By observing past correlations that generate almost 100% accuracy to
- [Semi Stocks Surge While Stock Market Stalls](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-nvda-sentiment-january-2024/) - The Nvidia led Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution found new life this week, sending large cap tech sector stocks soaring and propelling the SP to its first record high in 2 years. The positive announcements keep feeding the Bull. Nvidia (NVDA) reported new chip rollouts for China, a huge order from Meta (Facebook) and a strong
- [Stocks Rally Upon Anticipation of the Big Ease](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-cpi-fed-january-2023/) - Before the most highly capitalized Magnificent Seven stocks, or Mag 7, came to dominate markets in 2023, they might have been more appropriately titled the Lag 7 as they led the Bear market lower in 2022. At the Bear market lows the average Lag 7 stock was down by 34%, with Meta and Nvidia down about
- [Record Year for the Few, Not the Many](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-earnings-december-19-2023/) - The world's benchmark stock index is the S&P 500 Index. Its current market value is $36 trillion. However, the top cadre of just 7 stocks are worth $12 trillion, comprising a third of the Index. While there are numerous winners among the other 493 stocks, there are a record number of underperformers relative to the
- [Santa Claus Rally Nearing 2023 Climax](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-gdp-cpi-december-10-2023/) - The benchmark S&P 500 Index just completed its 6th straight week of gains for the first time in 4 years. US Homebuilder stocks are hitting all time records. The German stock market is breaking above its highs again, despite a weak European economy. Oil prices have fallen for 7 straight weeks, for the first time
- [Stock Market Generals Rest While Soldiers Catch Up](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-qqq-tech-december-2023/) - Good Generals exhibit executive leadership and bear responsibility for maintaining an efficient and effective army. The Generals of the US stock market have become mega Generals that have charged far ahead of the army of stocks in the marketplace. The Magnificent 7 or highest value companies in the US have an aggregate $11.5 trillion that
- [US Now the World's Leading Oil Superpower](https://execspec.net/us-now-the-worlds-leading-oil-superpower/) - Listen to our 11-09-23 interview by Cris Sheridan of the Financial Sense Network (FSN.com) as we talk about Oil/energy sector, stock market and the economy. We always highly recommend that readers check out FSN for the many expert interviews they provide. https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/20742/us-now-worlds-leading-oil-superpower-says-kurt-kallaus
- [Stock Investors Yield to Bond Bulls](https://execspec.net/bonds-stocks-yields-cpi-november-2023/) - As our Central Bank began fighting 40-year high inflation in early 2022, stocks peaked, and cash became king. Rising interest rates sent equity valuations lower as investors moved to money market funds, now yielding a risk-free 5.4%. The broad stock market continued to languish in purgatory this year apart from cash rich mega cap tech
- [Good News is Bad News for Oil](https://execspec.net/stocks-oil-energy-november-06-2023/) - When markets rally on negative news, it belies a Bullish undercurrent among investors. The 6 to 7% surge over just 5 days last week in the US stock market on weaker economic news was the most recent example of bad news is good news. Conversely, when a negative supply shock surprises energy investors, we expect
- [Consumers Running Out of Covid Cash](https://execspec.net/cash-earnings-consumer-sp-11-2023/) - Money managers and forecasters often see the economy in stark black and white contrasts. History has revealed that business conditions move from expansion to contraction and anything in between is background noise. The unique economic cycle today that we continue to note in our newsletters highlights the enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus that has delayed
- [Oversold Stocks Down but Not Out](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-equities-november-2023/) - The stock market is a decent looking glass into our economic future and may have anticipated the huge third quarter GDP surge of 4.9%. The three months of weakness since then may also reflect a relative slowing into year end and early 2024. The benchmark S&P 500 Index fell a significant 11% over 3 months
- [Yields Rising, Inflation Falling](https://execspec.net/cpi-inflation-phillips-stocks-october-2023/) - For anyone having had an economics class in school, you were likely taught the negative relationship between inflation and unemployment. This is known as the Phillips Curve. As illustrated below, the negative correlation of labor and price trends has a strong track record. The surging inflation (CPI) to 40-year highs in 2021 and 2022 did
- [Investors Unphased While Iran Stays Out of Israeli-Hamas War](https://execspec.net/stocks-iran-israel-hamas-october-2023/) - In 2019 when President Trump pulled out of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Accord and reimposed Oil sanctions, Iranian Oil production plummeted 50% to less than 2 million barrels a day (mbd). For two years Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Mullahs were starved of vital revenue for which to foment war and arm their proxy armies in
- [American Labor Walkout: Republicans Strike Over Debt](https://execspec.net/stocks-labor-republicans-debt-october-2023/) - An epidemic of worker strikes is striking America. So far this year 453,000 have refused to work, including automotive, healthcare, Hollywood actors and writers, and hotel workers. The reasons are obvious. High inflation and falling real income. The Government vastly overstimulated the economy and created a 40-year high for inflation. This in turn resulted in
- [Is Money Market Mania a Tailwind or Headwind?](https://execspec.net/bonds-stocks-sp-inflation-09-2023/) - Before the digital age of this generation, money flows were sticky and slow to move relative to the light speed capabilities today. Institutional money as well as low-income consumers can now instantly move money around. For companies, especially less sophisticated banks, this is a risk if they lack digital oversight and capital controls to avoid
- [Oil Rally Running Out of Fuel](https://execspec.net/oil-opec-energy-september-2023/) - For over a century Oil has been the lifeblood of the global economy, essential for transportation, power generation, infrastructure, drugs, and plastics. Despite Government efforts to restrict production of fossil fuels, their consumption continues to grow with no end in sight. The demographics of an aging labor supply and Government anti-Fossil fuel mandates have served
- [Inflation Data Pushes Pause Button on Rate Hikes](https://execspec.net/inflation-cpi-stocks-tech-september-2023/) - The emergence of a consumer price index (CPI) to measure inflation was conceived by an English economist in 1822. Its popular use germinated in 1917 as World War I raged, and many goods soared in price. Without tax funding for the War, Central Banks printed money that stimulated excess demand and persistent inflation near 20%
- [A Look at the US Consumer: 12-10-2020](https://execspec.net/a-look-at-the-us-consumer-savings-rates-delinquencies-and-debt-servicing-costs/) - Kurt Kallaus of ExecSpec was interview by Cris Sheridan of the Financial News Network on 12-10-20. A look at health of consumer & longevity of an overbought stock market. Click here to listen: (28 minutes) *If link isn't active, just copy and paste this link in your browser. http://bit.ly/3o3Kpz7 ( Financialsense.com is a fantastic
- [Healthcare Sector in Early to Mid-Innings](https://execspec.net/healthcare-sector-in-early-to-mid-innings/) - On September 5th, 2023 Cris Sheridan of the Financial Sense Network interviewed Exec Spec's Kurt Kallaus. Listen here and we also encourage viewers to check out other interviews on FinancialSense.com
- [Investors Are Too Bearish & This Is Not The 90's .comTech Bubble](https://execspec.net/investors-bearish-interview-june-2023/) - ExecSpec interviewed on the Financial Sense News Network (FinancialSense.com is an excellent site to hear interviews with top analysts and economists) June 1, 2023 – Kurt Kallaus at ExecSpec.net offers his view on the stock market, tech stocks, and the overall economy, which he believes is facing a soft-landing scenario. Overall, Kurt says that investors
- [Lost Momentum Triggers August Decline, Liquidity Premium Presages Rebound](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-liquidity-09-04-2023/) - Thomas Malthus may have been the founding fodder for many to declare the discipline of Economics "the dismal science" almost 2 centuries ago. The Malthusian Population Principle about animals that he applied to humans was both dismal and wildly incorrect in its assumptions. The dismal science moniker has remained as economic forecasters struggle for credibility
- [Labor Market Cooling?](https://execspec.net/jobs-sp-stocks-inflation-august-2023/) - This week revealed a downside miss in job growth creating widespread headlines that the labor market is off the boil. Water boils at 212 degrees Fahrenheit. The scalding temperature that burns human skin is above 120 degrees. Metaphorically, the worker shortage crisis has cooled from boiling to just scalding. The record number of unfilled jobs
- [China's Deflation Dilemma - Coming to the US?](https://execspec.net/china-deflation-inflation-stocks-august-2023/) - US inflation and the related worker shortage have clearly been the top concerns for small businesses for the past 2 years. The US and global stimulus efforts created artificial demand far in excess of supply which caused these concerns to manifest. While too much demand may be a good problem to have in the short
- [Rolling Recessions, Soft Landings and a 5.8% GDP](https://execspec.net/recessions-stocks-sp-tech-august-2023/) - While the Atlanta Fed's automated model indicates that Q3 is running at a 5.8% GDP growth currently, their chimerical target is correctly highlighting a stronger than expected economy. When all major industries have worker shortages and record low inventories - as we reiterate monthly, it's hard to see rolling recessions or any trend toward rising
- [Stocks and Bonds Celebrate Weaker Economy](https://execspec.net/bonds-economy-stocks-sp-august-2023/) - Investors and consumers love a growing economy. It means better corporate earnings, rising wages and an appreciating stock market. The stimulus on steroids response to Covid by Governments and Central Banks revealed that too much of a good thing can become undesirable. With Fiscal and Monetary leaders vastly overestimating the pain of Covid mandates, they
- [Investors Give the Dow a Perfect 10](https://execspec.net/dow-sp-stocks-bulls-july-2023/) - Investors have judged that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) deserved a perfect 10 this week by bidding up this large capitalization group of stocks for 10th straight day. Until the past week, these vaunted blue chip Dow stocks have significantly lagged the more tech heavy indices such as the Nasdaq Composite or S&P 500.
- [Money Managers Embrace New Bull Market](https://execspec.net/sentiment-sp-stocks-cpi-july-2023/) - True values are best arrived at when the maximum number of buyers and sellers meet publicly to exchange their bid and ask prices. Stock exchanges are auction-like markets where buyers and sellers are matched. When investors are extremely pessimistic, they are historically underweight equities with excess cash. At these extremes the odds of an upside
- [Surprise! We are Not in Recession](https://execspec.net/travel-jobs-recession-stocks-july-2023/) - In March 1933, in the depths of the Great Depression, President Roosevelt attempted to inspire hope in saying "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself." Today's Government is suffering from a similar loss of confidence, despite an artificially stimulated economy at full employment. It doesn't matter how many times our President defends
- [Pre- Election Year Peak Coming This July?](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-seasonality-june-2023/) - Seasonality patterns have become more popular among market technicians this past year. After a strong April/May there is often a higher odd of sideways action in June. Not this time. While we only expected a small pullback in a late June Swoon, a handful of Mega Cap Tech stocks continue to skew the pattern Bullishly
- [From Extreme Pessimism to Growing Optimism](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-nvda-june-19-2023/) - When investors reach an extreme consensus of optimism or pessimism, we can be assured that the opposite is about to occur. The trick is knowing when those ever-changing thresholds of sentiment have climaxed. The extremely negative investor in 2022 was understandable as the Federal Reserve was on a quest to choke off 40-year high inflation
- [Nvidia Hype Ushers in AI Gold Rush](https://execspec.net/nvidia-stocks-sp-m2-june-2023/) - In 1956 a Dartmouth University Workshop coined the term Artificial Intelligence (AI) as it explored machine learning and thinking computers. This endeavor coincided with the massive evolution of computers from vacuum tubes and transistors to integrated circuits (IC's) in the late 1950's and microprocessors in the 1960's. While IC's have rapidly enhanced computing speed, power
- [Consumers Block Bears From Earnings Recession](https://execspec.net/stocks-earnings-inflation-may-2023/) - Every week we receive an email from Credit Karma telling us how great we are that our credit rating keeps improving. Apparently, we are not alone as the average credit score has moved higher since Covid to 716 today. This week Trans Union CEO Chris Cartwright shared that consumer debt service to income is near
- [Hyper Government Spending Created Hyper Labor Demand](https://execspec.net/inflation-unemployment-economy-may-2023/) - Politicians are often good at sales but lacking in real world wisdom or the moral compass to act adversely to their political party for the good of our country. Last week our former Vice President Pence asserted that "labor participation rates were nearly at all-time lows", to support his case for reducing taxes to stimulate
- [Short Term Pain Setting Up Long Term Stock Market Gains](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-dow-bulls-may-24-2023/) - Wealth managers seek a diversified portfolio for most clients. There will always be sectors that outperform and underperform in any given period, but achieving returns that match or slightly exceed the broader stock market is the goal. Last year, Energy stocks were the darlings while mega tech companies were crushed. This year energy and small
- [Banks Panic While Big Tech Bulls Stampede Higher](https://execspec.net/banks-sp-tech-bulls-stocks-may-2023/) - One of the best generalities that define a Bull market is the ability of stock prices to climb a wall of worry. When whole sectors of the economy are faced with a steady drumbeat of negativity, yet continue to rally, that's typically a Bull market atmosphere. Investors, CEO's, money managers and economists are in complete
- [Proxy War of Economic Indicators](https://execspec.net/gdp-sp-fed-recession-april-2023/) - The Fed will win the fight against inflation, but the battle of proxy indicators forecasting economic gloom has just begun. According to the Conference Board, Consumers still feel ebullient about their present condition, but their expectations of tough times ahead is the worst it has been in a decade. Many proxies that have perfect track
- [Market Expects Recession, Wants 3 Rate Cuts](https://execspec.net/stocks-cpi-jobs-inflation-april-2023/) - A majority of CEO's expect a recession starting in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of this year along with 74% of Credit Default Managers and even our own Federal Reserve has a recession this year as their base case. Many Bears adopt a Tom Cruise - Minority Report - attitude needing to fight future crimes
- [Bears Banking on Credit Crunch](https://execspec.net/stocks-bonds-banks-march-29-2023/) - The Ghosts of the 2008 mortgage meltdown and Great Financial Crisis (GFC) are memories indelibly imprinted upon Central Bankers and provide a guide for future panic prevention. In late 2008 after unemployment was surging higher, our Fed printed a Trillion dollars to quiet a major run on the banks and allow companies to meet payrolls.
- [Banking on an End to Rate Hikes](https://execspec.net/banks-cpi-stocks-contagion-march-2023/) - When Silicon Valley Bank imploded last week, triggering a brief panic, Federal action quickly began to ring fence the risk. This week's implosion at Credit Suisse (CS) set off a new chain reaction among banks in Europe, confirming to many that a global banking contagion must be underway. US authorities have implicitly guaranteed all depositors
- [Fed Funds Forecast and Stocks in the Twilight Zone](https://execspec.net/fed-stocks-sp-dow-cpi-march-2023/) - Investors have been looking past the 40-year high inflation rates (CPI) for months, having concluded the Fed is on a Bullish glide path toward stable consumer prices and near the end of their rate hiking cycle. The super charged jobs data over the past 2 months has reignited concern over sticky inflation and a higher
- [Kurt Kallaus on Market Outlook, Sticky Inflation, and More Fed Tightening](https://execspec.net/kurt-kallaus-on-market-outlook-sticky-inflation-and-more-fed-tightening/) - On March 2, 2023 Kurt Kallaus was interviewed by Cris Sheridan of FSN. We encourage visiting FinancialSense.com for many interesting guest interviews. For our ExecSpec interview: Copy and paste in your browser the link below to hear our interview last week on the Financial Sense Network https://bit.ly/3kSphQ4
- [Inflation Fears Feed Fed Hawks](https://execspec.net/inflation-fed-cpi-pce-march-2023/) - As inflation rates trended lower last July, the Fed raised rates sharply and the loud chorus of Fed critics claimed the Fed was too Dovish while inflation rose and too Hawkish as inflation fell. For the numerous managers and economists begging the Fed to pause its rate hikes in recent months, it appears now that
- [Housing Sector Has Firm Foundation](https://execspec.net/stocks-housing-mortgages-february-2023/) - The modern debt heavy housing industry exists due to the centuries old concept of the mortgage. A "mort gage" is an Old French or Latin term meaning Dead Pledge, which is a debt obligation that dies when the loan is repaid or foreclosed upon. While the US adopted mortgages as early as 1781, it wasn't
- [Fed is Liquidating Banking Liquidity](https://execspec.net/stocks-m2-cpi-default-february-2023/) - With the recent hotter than expected 6.4% CPI inflation report, Federal Reserve Bank Chair Powell has even more credibility to stay the course to raise interest rates and drain reserves from the banking system until his 2% core PCE inflation target is reached. Over the last 4 months investors had assumed the inflation battle was
- [Record Jobs Shortfall is Green Light for Investors](https://execspec.net/jobs-recession-stocks-february-2023/) - The last time US unemployment matched today's 3.4% rate was in the 1960's. What's also interesting about the comparison is that unemployment remained below 4% for 5 straight years back then, during a 9-year span without a recession. If we eliminate the mandated Covid recession, then we have several years of unemployment below 4% today.
- [Fed Says Hawk and Investors Hear Dove](https://execspec.net/fed-pce-cpi-gdp-stocks-february-2023/) - Once again, Fed Chair Powell raised interest rates at the February 1st FOMC meeting and announced he would remain a monetary Hawk, raising rates even further and draining loanable reserves from the banking system for as long as it takes to bring core PCE inflation down from 4.4% to 2%. Powell added that he expected
- [Equity Troops Lead Generals Higher](https://execspec.net/stocks-bull-economy-faang-january-2023/) - Healthy Bull markets witness broad participation by the small cap and value troops, while frothy markets occur when the big cap Generals are leading the charge without their soldiers. Many should have heeded the warning signs during the 2nd half of 2021 when the troops were all in their bunkers while the mega cap Generals
- [Full Employment Reduces Valuation Risk for Stocks](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-recession-defaults-january-2023/) - Investors are always filtering the cross currents of Bull and Bear market prognostications flowing from a cornucopia of data. Credible arguments can often be presented on both sides of the ledger. On the negative side we see the downtrends in virtually every macroeconomic indicator and a plethora of proxies, such as inverted yield curves, with
- [Bear Transition to Trading Range Market](https://execspec.net/earnings-sp-stocks-bulls-bears-january-2023/) - The forecast of a weaker economy became a clear consensus when the Fed finally committed itself to a rate hiking policy last March to crush inflation down to 2%. The debate ever since has been around the degree of GDP slowing and coincident earnings per share coinciding with either slow growth or a deep recession.
- [New Year Stocks Ready to Bounce, but Briefly](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-volatility-january-2023/) - Every year as the markets enter the Thanksgiving to New Year's Holiday period there is talk of the Santa Claus rally related to Seasonality. Year-end institutional portfolio adjustments and tax loss harvesting are the main reasons attributed to the frequent occurrence of strong stock market rallies during December, in particular the week or two following
- [Lower Inflation, Profits and Wages in 2023](https://execspec.net/stocks-unemployment-recession-cpi-december-2022/) - With every report that shows the inflation rate falling, financial analysts bombard the airwaves with alarmist calls for a pause in Fed rate hikes to avoid recession. They usurp a mantle of credibility by saying they knew the Fed was wrong last year for calling inflation "transitory", therefore the Fed must be wrong again for
- [Inflation Will Fall, But When?](https://execspec.net/inflation-stocks-cpi-ppi-gdp-december-2022/) - While analysts decry any further Fed rate hikes that risk an ever deeper recession, investors observe an economy powering along with a strong consumer, full employment and higher corporate earnings. The Fed is determined to tighten credit as long as it takes to slash inflation back to pre-Covid rates near 2%. However, price trends remain
- [Stocks Rally on Fed Taper Talk](https://execspec.net/stocks-economy-sp-gdp-december-2022/) - The much anticipated Fed Chair Powell speech this week set the market on fire based upon a restating of exactly what investors already expected. It was the 12th day in a row of stock market malaise in the lower portion of our fourth quarter (Q4) resistance zone when Powell came to the rescue. He affirmed
- [Fed Pivot Bulls Buying Stocks Again](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-cpi-inflation-november-2022/) - The headline CPI inflation rate reported this week was slightly better than consensus and stocks roared higher in response on hopes the Fed will soon pivot to a less restrictive policy. Bear markets slide lower into a hole of hope as investors, in this cycle, jump on every sign that Fed credit tightening is about
- [Investors Polling for Split Government - GOP Sweep](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-election-gop-2022/) - Soon we can all stop blocking the incessant political text messages to our cell phones. Hopefully, the sun will come out tomorrow and Democracy will be sustained for yet another election cycle. To the questionable credit of the political machine having spent a record $16.7 billion to get out the vote and denigrate the other
- [Gold will Glitter when Inflation and the Dollar Fall](https://execspec.net/gold-inflation-dollar-november-2022/) - Archeological evidence hints that Gold held value with cave dwelling paleolithic humans as long 40,000 years ago. The Egyptians 4,000 years ago and later the Greeks cherished the glitter and rarity of the yellow metal, using it as a currency. Precious metals, with Gold at the vanguard, have been central to the development of civilization
- [Consumers Don't Fear the Fed. They Should!](https://execspec.net/inflation-cpi-stocks-sp-tech-2022/) - Consumers may say they are worried about inflation, but they are still out shopping. The majority of economists and 98% of CEO's expect a recession in the next 12 months, but the service sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, continues to expand. Airbnb reported its highest quarterly revenue ever. Cedar Fair
- [Fed Soothsayers Expecting a Pause and Year End Rally](https://execspec.net/fed-sp-stocks-bonds-inflation-2022/) - There are manifold reasons to assume inflation rates are falling. Energy prices and cargo shipping rates are down sharply from their extreme summer peaks. The most notable sign of easing supply chains and disinflationary pressure arrived in October with the non-manufacturing Service sector activity contracting. This created a large drawdown of record backlogs that can
- [High Inflation Investing Equals Low PE Stocks](https://execspec.net/pe-stocks-sp-gdp-october-2022/) - One of the most popular methods of valuing stocks is a price to earnings ratio or PE. Stocks that carry a high price to earnings multiple, signifying above normal growth rate expectations, are favored during low inflation periods, like the past 14 years. However, during high inflation cycles, such as the 1970's, low PE stocks
- [Bashing OPEC and Big Oil in the US is Politics 101](https://execspec.net/oil-stocks-gas-inflation-october-2022/) - There seems to be an obvious pattern of the party in power shifting the blame for all ills and taking credit for all cures. It's public record that this administration wants to put our Oil industry out of business. Recently our top Banking CEO's were demonized for even allowing fossil fuel companies to exist by
- [Sell the Good Inflation Rumor, Buy the Bad News](https://execspec.net/cpi-pce-inflation-stocks-so-october-2022/) - The market can be viewed as illogical quite often when it comes to its reaction to news. For weeks, the experts have been opining that inflation is coming down faster than the Fed thinks, yet stocks have been selling off sharply. Then today the inflation news was worse than expected, implying an even more aggressive
- [Stock Market Near Climax Low on CPI Day](https://execspec.net/stock-market-near-climax-low-on-cpi-day/) - The fundamental news and sentiment measures have stock market investors on edge. Consensus economic expectations continue to falter. Option trader sentiment and volatility fear gages are hitting extreme oversold levels while stock indices hang over the precipice of new 2022 lows on the eve of the important September inflation report. On October 13th, Consumer prices
- [8.5% PPI Confirms Two Triple Rate Hikes Coming](https://execspec.net/inflation-ppi-stocks-october-12-2022/) - The good news is that all of the major indices that measure inflation peaked in March of this year. The bad news is that inflation remains near 40-year highs and has been falling too slowly over the past 2 months. Investors have finally heard the Fed more clearly that they are willing to allow a
- [More Good News on Economy is Bad News for Investors](https://execspec.net/gdp-sp-stocks-cpi-october-2022/) - Business cycles can be viewed simplistically. When demand increases faster than supply, there is an economic expansion phase until surplus production outstrips consumption creating a contraction to bring supply and demand back into balance. Before a contraction or recession can begin, excess inventory occurs. This slows production and triggers increasing worker layoffs and unemployment. While
- [When the Unthinkable Becomes Thinkable in Ukraine](https://execspec.net/ukraine-nuclear-investments-stocks-september-2022/) - Red Alert!: Russia's annexation of eastern Ukraine means Putin is drawing a nuclear line in the sand and he will use tactical nukes to defend his nefariously expanded country, unless a peaceful status quo is accepted. The US, with only modest assistance from Europe, has provided the sophisticated arms and intelligence to turn the tide
- [Red Alert: Get Ready for Next Washout Low](https://execspec.net/financial-sense-interview-september-22/) - Interview with ExecSpec recorded September 22nd, 2022 Copy and paste the link below in your open browser to access our interview by Financial Sense Network https://bit.ly/3C7Akec
- [Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-gdp-recession-fed-september-2022/) - In 1907 Mark Twain popularized the phrase, 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" to illustrate the power of factual data to bolster a weak argument. Our Federal Reserve Bank has been the frequent fodder to blame for our inflation ills and now for a widely forecasted recession wreck around the
- [Peak Inflation, Again!](https://execspec.net/cpi-ppi-inflation-stocks-september-2022/) - This week surprised most forecasters when core consumer price (CPI) and producer price inflation rates returned to 40-year peak levels. Instead of confirming several months of falling inflation rates and an end to Fed rate hikes, we now await a new downtrend in the CPI to start. Investors may have hoped a lower inflation rate
- [Bulls Hibernate as Financial Stress Soars](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-economy-sentiment-september-2022/) - Federal Reserve Chair Powell is a puppet master who plays a world class economist by day and works overtime as a financial bartender, speaking the language of Wall Street gibberish to cajole his customers. For the past few months, the Fed has spoken in tongue with a harsh message to its Wall Street minions who
- [Winning Inflation Battle Requires GDI Contraction](https://execspec.net/inflation-gdp-gdi-stocks-august-2022/) - On the eve of important Fed Chair comments from Jackson Hole, everyone expects Jerome Powell to convey the need for higher interest rates required to bring inflation down. Most assumed the last 6 months of economic contraction, as measured by GDP, was the start of a recession that would cause lower inflation soon and allow
- [Fed is Only 2% From Inflation Goal](https://execspec.net/fed-stocks-inflation-august-2022/) - Every day we hear that inflation has a long way to go to reach the Fed's 2% target from the current 8.5%. Of course, this is hyperbole since the Fed does not target headline CPI inflation rates. Pundits use the popular consumer price indices (CPI) that include volatile food and energy as compared to the
- [Has the Inflation Reduction Act Already Reduced Inflation?](https://execspec.net/sp-stocks-inflation-economy-debt-august-2022/) - Carrying on the tradition of all politicians, President Biden this week extolled the virtues of the strong jobs report, falling deficits and peaking inflation. Understandably, the stock market is loving the news today of a small drop in year over year headline CPI inflation from 9% to 8.5%, but let's review the Administration’s victory laps
- [Stocks Surge on Recession News](https://execspec.net/stocks-recession-pce-july-2022/) - For the 2nd quarter in a row the economy contracted. Stocks rallied on the growing recession fears that implied the Fed would soon stop raising rates due to prospects of falling inflation soon. Stocks also rallied a day earlier when the Fed hiked rates 75 points with a Hawkish vow of more interest rate hikes
- [Buy Small Cap Stocks When King Dollar is Dethroned](https://execspec.net/inflation-sp-dow-stocks-dollar-july-2022/) - Investors have observed over the decades that trends in large capitalization compared to small cap stocks tend to shift back and forth in leading the general stock market. In the 1990's Large Cap companies consistently outshined smaller companies when the Dollar was king. After the tech bubble burst, King Dollar was decapitated and Small Cap
- [Sell the Record Inflation Rumor, Buy the News!](https://execspec.net/inflation-cpi-fed-stocks-sp-july-2022/) - Investors and institutional money managers alike often fail to understand how macro trumps micro. With regards to microeconomic news, companies can have accelerating earnings and revenues, above consensus, yet such positive news can trigger accelerated selling if during a negative macroeconomic environment like 2022. This has been one of those years with mostly consensus beats
- [Bulls and Bears Await CPI Surprise](https://execspec.net/cpi-inflation-stocks-bonds-dollar-july-2022/) - On July 13th the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released with Bulls and Bears hovering over their order entry keyboards. Everyone knows inflation data will eventually confirm a downtrend that will remove some of the credit tightening fear permeating panicky investors. The questions are when and how fast? Commodity prices will show up more
- [Recession is Here! Hire More Workers!](https://execspec.net/recession-stocks-gdp-jobs-july-2022/) - The recession consensus grows by the week, yet employers continue to search the bottom layer of the labor pool to address massive shortages. With most economists expecting a Recession and half the public feeling that an economic recession has already begun; it seems that pundits eagerly search for tea leaves that may augur poorly to
- [Stock Market Needs Economic Contraction](https://execspec.net/recession-economy-stocks-pmi-june-2022/) - Scary headlines have been dominating the news for over 2 years. One wonders if the old normal will ever return with unbridled optimism and unrestricted travel. Just when an elusive post Covid reopening was upon us, inflation surged to 40-year highs, Putin invaded Ukraine and consumers are being told to prepare for an economic Recession.
- [Does Exxon Have More Money Than God?](https://execspec.net/oil-stocks-sp-inflation-june-2022/) - The President's odd choice of hyperbolic criticism that Exxon has more money than God may be offensive to those of faith, but begs the less celestial question: How Greedy is Big Oil? Net profit margins of Oil and Gas companies are surprisingly modest. Politicians survive on their popularity; thus, job security was likely the main
- [Stocks Rebound as Inflation Worries Deflate](https://execspec.net/stocks-bull-inflation-commodities-june-2022/) - Has inflation peaked? According to a leading inflation index indicator measuring a basket of raw commodities, a clear top of some degree has arrived in June. With all the consternation over inflation and interest rate hikes, it is no coincidence that the low of the year in stocks (so far) has coincided with short-term commodity
- [When Will Inflation Fighting Fed Worry About Recession](https://execspec.net/cpi-stocks-inflation-fed-recession-2022/) - Stimulative Western Governments and Central Banks in 2021 ignited the global consumption bonfire that created the 41-year inflation peaks we are witnessing today. For over a decade prior to the 2020 - 2022 Covid recovery plan, it appeared that no amount of stimulus could keep inflation above 2%. Today, Consumer price inflation is rising at
- [Need Oil to Crash Before Bull Market Resumes](https://execspec.net/need-oil-to-crash-before-bull-market-resumes/) - Above is the play link for the Financial Sense Network interview with ExecSpec's Kurt Kallaus on June 1st. We also endorse subscribing to FinancialSense.com
- [Stocks Due For Bounce While Recession Fears Rise](https://execspec.net/stocks-recession-dow-economy-jobs-2022/) - A strong consensus expects a slowing economy, but no Recession over the next year. With a 40 year high in inflation, a growing shortage of food and energy and a Federal Reserve Bank that is determined to keep hiking rates until the economy breaks, it's not easy to ignore the Recession risk. Three rate hikes
- [Our Government, Not Big Oil, is Price Gouging Gasoline](https://execspec.net/may-2022-oil-gouging-gasoline-inflation/) - Gasoline is a political hot button that politicians love to publicize, as they know consumers are more aware of price changes of gasoline at the pump more than any other household budget item. Politicians are not the best and brightest that society has to offer, but they are wise enough to know that their existence
- [Bear Attack Finale on Stock Market Begins](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-bears-bulls-sentiment-april-2022/) - The infrangible spirit of 2021's unstoppable Bull market in stocks has morphed into a climactic chorus of growls from a near record number of Bears. Companies with rapidly growing earnings, beating market expectations, are being summarily drawn and quartered for the high treason of making profits in a Bear market. The downside valuation compression risk
- [Putin Knew the World Would Fund His Ukraine War](https://execspec.net/oil-gas-energy-inflation-stocks-sp-april-2022/) - Since Russia's invasion, they have earned a multiyear record $33 Billion a month from fossil fuel exports. The European Union has accounted for 71% of Russian fossil fuels, worth $46 billion in March and April. Despite Europe’s moderate success in reducing the volume of Russian energy imports by 20%, they are paying for Putin's war
- [Putin Seeds Grain Bull Market](https://execspec.net/putin-wheat-corn-bull-market-inflation/) - Western ignorance has fostered unfettered dependence upon Russia's food exports. Putin knew that in the short term, Europe and the world could not replace the Oil, Natural Gas, Uranium and Wheat exports he needed to help fund his military campaign in Ukraine and beyond. Russia has drastically cut its export of grains through mid-year, tapping
- [Stocks Tumble on (alleged) Powell Pivot](https://execspec.net/stocks-fed-rates-gdp-housing-april-2022/) - Stock indices fell a notable 5 to 6% the past 2 days due to the alleged Powell Pivot. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that "Fifty basis points will be on the table for the May meeting" on May 3-4 when the Federal Reserve meets to approve a possible rate hike. He also expressed the need
- [Stocks Begin Sentimental Journey Higher](https://execspec.net/stocks-sentiment-sp-bulls-april-2022/) - The stock market is two days into a 'Sentimental Journey', rallying from deeply oversold AAII investor sentiment levels. It's surprising how frequently AAII's small investor sentiment survey captures investable bottoms in the stock market. Such negative sentiment only occurs after or deep into market corrections. While it can be moderately premature, it's rare that stocks
- [Yield Curve is Bullish and Bearish for Stocks](https://execspec.net/bullish-stocks-bonds-bearish-yield-fed-2022/) - With the continued consternation over the correlation of inverted yield curves leading to Recessions, it's worth another look at the unusual dichotomy of various yield spreads. Market historians have already echoed the fact that the vaunted 10 year minus 2-year yield curve inversion (short rates above long rates) often has a lag of more than
- [Biden SPR Release to Fight Inflation and Appease Voters](https://execspec.net/oil-uranium-inflation-stocks-april-2022/) - Many investors are learning more about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that President Biden is depleting to bring down the price of gasoline. The SPR was created after the 1973 Arab Oil embargo against the US for its support of Israel in the 6-day War. A Saudi led Oil ban in October 1973 exacerbated a
- [US Dollar Appreciates A Yen For Easy Money](https://execspec.net/yen-dollar-inflation-cpi-stocks-bonds-april-2022/) - Typical global economic recoveries are characterized by a weak US Dollar and a sudden increase in consumption by the worlds biggest importer, triggering commodity inflation. As the record US stimulus began in 2020 to replace the Covid suppression of economic activity, the Dollar weakened and commodity inflation accelerated throughout as expected. As our hyper stimulated
- [Inverted Yield Curve Hysteria](https://execspec.net/yields-sp-stocks-ukraine-march-2022/) - Investors naturally seek tea leaves that foretell the future. Over the past 2 decades it has become increasingly well known that every Recession is preceded by an inverted yield curve, where short term interest rates rise above longer-term maturities. Since stock investors anticipate these inversions and subsequent Recessions, we find more prognosticators start ringing alarm
- [Oil Falls on Rumors of Peace Progress](https://execspec.net/oil-putin-russia-energy-stocks-march-2022/) - Make no mistake, most of the price rise in gas for your car has nothing to do with Putin. Despite Presidential protestations, Putin and the fear of possible energy sanctions are only to blame for about 30% of the spike in gas at the pump since the Covid lows in 2020.If the fear of sanctions
- [Stock Market Paralyzed Until Putin Diplomacy Begins](https://execspec.net/stock-sp-war-putin-march-2022/) - Russian President Putin assumed he would be isolated from the world to some degree and was correct in betting that Europe lacked the fortitude to cut off critical energy imports from Russia. However, he was likely surprised by the degree and unanimity of costly sanctions that have been foisted upon their wealth and economy. The
- [Prepping for Putin Panic or Bargain Buying](https://execspec.net/russia-oil-wheat-ukraine-march-2022/) - When a military crisis breaks out and normal correction level indicators are oversold, it's usually a safe time to become fully invested in your stock portfolio. Perhaps the caveat is that when a military conflict pits a perceived irrational nuclear superpower against the world and it's still escalating, then the degree of oversold conditions and
- [Ags & Energy Approaching Peak](https://execspec.net/pound-yen-stocks-sp/) - 02-23-22 Dollar, Aussie, Corn, Soybeans, BeanMeal setting up for Sells in March with lows due in April. Expecting a April/May Low in Bond prices toBuy. Stock Index Commercial hedger shorts nearing an extreme where longer term Buy entries occur at levels last approached in March 2020, December 2018, April - June of 2018, Feb/Mar 2015,
- [Inflation and Cold War Risk Escalate as Russia Plays Chess in Ukraine](https://execspec.net/inflation-russia-ukraine-sp-stocks-2022/) - The 39 year high on inflation has nothing to do with Russia, yet the risk of a Cold war leaped higher today on the news of Russia invading Eastern Ukraine that triggered significant US and European sanctions. The news is increasingly fluid with regard to the growing Russian Bear rising up along the Ukrainian border.
- [Russian Threats and Bond Fears Send Stocks Lower](https://execspec.net/bonds-inflation-stocks-sp-oil-russia/) - Adapting a famous phrase from President Teddy Roosevelt, Russia's economy speaks softly, but its military carries a big stick. With an economy ranking 2 notches under tiny Canada in 11th place, despite almost 4x the population, Russia's Putin demands an outsized presence on the world stage. With the world's second most powerful military and the
- [Stocks Need an Apple Today, but Fear Flat Yield Curve](https://execspec.net/stocks-microsoft-apple-bonds-inflation-2022/) - It's well known that inflation is running red hot and that the Fed has finally begun taking away the stimulus punch bowl, bowing to months of outrage by politicians and financial professionals. Stocks love free money that our Government and Federal Reserve Bank supplied like confetti during a never ending New Year celebration over hte
- [Moribund Business Optimism Will Surge When CPI Falls](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-dow-tech-inflation-cpi/) - Nobel economist Milton Friedman famously said "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon ... produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output". While Copernicus was the mathematician who fathered Monetary Theory, Friedman popularized today's current perspective. Many focus upon the supply growth of currency or money in
- [Fiscal Fade, Fed Fear, Sinks Stocks](https://execspec.net/sp-dollar-inflation-stocks-january-2022/) - For most of 2021 analysts and economists excoriated the Federal Reserve incessantly for failing to stop stimulating supply chain inflation and start raising interest rates. Stock investors even rewarded the prospects of reducing stimulus with higher stock prices when Fed Chair Powell finally complied with pundits, changing his feathers from Dove to Hawk with a
- [Omicron Becomes Omicold, Boosting Stocks](https://execspec.net/omicron-stocks-covid-sp-december-2021/) - Omicron, the most contagious strain of Covid so far, has gone viral worldwide. The current wave has reached the highest daily caseload of Covid since the pandemic began - despite a year of vaccines and boosters. Although Omicron has manifested as more of a cold than previous variants of a more lethal nature, new Government
- [More Bark Than Bite, Benign Omicron Buoys Stocks](https://execspec.net/omicron-sp-fed-stocks-december-2021/) - Coronaviruses are very common. Most are harmless and only a small percent are able to mutate sufficiently to jump from animals to humans as well as become highly transmissible. The prevailing wisdom is that virsues become less pathogenic over time, obeying the Darwinian Theory, "Survival of the Fittest". If a virus is too deadly it
- [Boeing Stock Ready for Low Altitude Flights in 2022](https://execspec.net/boeing-stocks-737-2021-sp/) - For much of the past 50 years the 737 model passenger plane has been the workhourse of the Boeing fleet. The 737 Max premered in 2015 as the latest and greatest model that would dominate Boeing production with over 600 planes a year. With the crashes of 2018 and 2019 after just a couple years
- [Omicron Looking Less Ominous](https://execspec.net/omicron-correction-sp-covid-2021/) - While Covid is increasingly perceived as permanent, each new wave in cases appears less ominous in its lethality. When the Omicron Covid variant made global headlines around Thanksgiving, the stock and commodity markets decided to shoot first and ask questions later. Oil quickly fell over 25% and stocks corrected 5 to 6%. Since the outset,
- [Covid B.1.1.529 Infects Stock Market and Oil](https://execspec.net/covid-oil-stocks-sp-november-2021/) - The new Covid variant, labeled B.1.1.529 out of Botswana, has barely infected any nation, but the stock and Oil markets are beginning to anticipate this virus going global. While Europe and Asia are already expanding social restriction mandates and harsh lockdowns from the spread of the Covid Delta variant, the news of this new Covid
- [Inflation Peaking, Bond Yields Bottom](https://execspec.net/inflation-stocks-bonds-yield-banks-2021/) - Bonds are contracts for borrowers to pay back lenders and have been around since they were recorded on stone tablets in 2400 B.C. Their value is indirectly influenced by inflation and economic risk. However, with inflation indices at 30 year highs today, economic risk is being priced cheaply as reflected by the historic lows in
- [Energy Shortage as Green Energy Mandates Go Global](https://execspec.net/energy-oil-gas-inflation-stocks-2021/) - Energy production has come a long way since the Chinese discovered Oil in 600 BC and used pipelines of bamboo for transport. It took until 1919 before US Oil discoveries and the burgeoning automobile industry utilized enough Oil to surpass Whale Fat and kerosene as the leading source of energy consumption. As Whaling peaked, the
- [Service Sector Serving Up Winners](https://execspec.net/pmi-services-economy-stocks-sp-bull-2021/) - The epidemic of global consumption, courtesy of free money oriented Western Governments and Central Banks, continues to create all time records in almost every category imaginable. Sometimes too much of a good thing is a bad thing as Production and Delivery capacity of Supply Chains have broken down. Resulting inflation and shortages of goods and
- [Follow the Leading Indicators](https://execspec.net/lei-stocks-gdp-sp-sentiment-2021/) - Investors, economists and policy makers are always looking for tea leaves that will forecast the future to mitigate risk. Leading indicators, by definition, are meant to forecast trends before they become readily apparent. In the 1960's the US Department of Commerce developed a set of 10 Leading Economic Indicators known as the LEI to time
- [Demand Pull Inflation is Goldilocks for Stocks](https://execspec.net/gdp-inflation-stocks-spy-2021-october/) - In our College econ classes we often referred to Demand Pull Inflation where production supply capacity was unable to keep up with an increase in consumption. Inflation has been the news de jour every day for months, reaching 30 year highs, yet stocks continue higher and inflation sensitive commodities remain dead in the water. When
- [No More Cow Bells, Please!](https://execspec.net/sp-es-stocks-economy-jobs-2021/) - The US and European economies are experiencing an historic avidity of consumption demand and record labor shortages, which have created high inflation as goods become scarce. The last thing we need is more Cow Bells of Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus that exacerbates inflation and job shortfalls. Unfortunately we will have more of both for months
- [Seasonal Swoon, but Waiting for the Washout](https://execspec.net/seasonal-swoon-but-waiting-for-the-washout/) - Below is the latest interview on September 21st with Kurt Kallaus of Exec Spec on the Financial Sense Newshour which I highly recommend readers check out for a variety of views on markets, the economy and latest areas of interest in the news. We had to delay release of this interview out of courtesy to
- [Don't Fear The Taper](https://execspec.net/taper-fed-bulls-bears-sp-stocks-2021/) - Don't Fear The Taper! With multi decade highs in inflation, money supply and debt expansions, investors have been almost apoplectic clamoring for Central Bank Chief Powell to Taper - stop adding $120 Billion of emergency liquidity each month. Powell appears to be a lone wolf among his peers by continuing to print money months beyond
- [Seasonal Swoon or Renewed Rally](https://execspec.net/bull-stocks-sp-tech-2021/) - They say Bull Markets climb a wall of worry. Of course concerns will always be present, but all worries to date have been papered over by the super charged atmosphere of $4.1 Trillion in Central Bank money creation (asset purchases) and Government handouts totalling $5.3 Trillion (with several Trillion more pending). These monetary and fiscal
- [Stagflation: Harm or Hype](https://execspec.net/stagflation-gdp-inflation-stocks-economy/) - August's moribund Jobs report revealing a half a million hiring shortfall compared to consensus, brought out the cat calls of Stagflation. The unflappable Fed Chair Powell is blamed for an expected stagnating economy with high inflation that is nowhere in sight. High inflation and high jobless rates with a contracting economy (Stagflation) only occurred briefly
- [Stocks Breakout as Seasonal Top Approaches](https://execspec.net/valuations-sp-stocks-august-2021/) - On August 12th, 2 trading days before the most recent 3% selloff, we alerted traders to expect a 3 day decline of 3 to 6% starting the 16th and no later than the 18th. We don't always get this precise, but the technical overbought conditions required an immediate pressure release for short term traders to
- [Pelosi Passage of Social Infrastructure is a Pyrrhic Victory](https://execspec.net/infrastructure-sp-stocks-bonds-economy-august-2021/) - House majority leader Pelosi's pyrrhic victory passing the framework for a $3.5 Trillion Build Back Better Social Wish List tethered to the $1 Trillion bipartisan infrastructure Bill was touted as a victory for Democrats last week. However, it appears that Pelosi's accomplishment is ephemeral, risking a major setback by promising passage of the smaller plan
- [Stocks Relatively Overbought](https://execspec.net/stocks-rsi-sp-nasdaq-2021/) - Technical stock market update: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator of price changes developed in 1978 to indicate overbought and oversold conditions. Our preferred use of this type of oscillator is when RSI negatively or positively diverges from the underlying stock price. In this example, the benchmark SP 500 Index has
- [Infrastructure Bill Stalled By Welfare Wishlist](https://execspec.net/infrastructure-deficit-sp-stocks-2021/) - As the traditional 2021 Infrastructure Bill passes the Senate this week, analysts are flooding the airwaves with stock recommendations to take advantage of yet another massive Government stimulus proposal despite a booming economy. Vulcan Materials, Martin Marrieta, General Electric and Emerson are among the great companies being touted to take advantage of this Government largesse.
- [China Attacks Their Own Success, Warns World](https://execspec.net/china-us-stocks-gdp-2021/) - China celebrated the 100th anniversary of their communist party recently with a departure from the usual image of quiet calculated success of its 1.4 Billion strong economy. President Xi asserted China's absolute authority over Hong Kong and Macau with the blatant threat of nuking any country that would dare defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion.
- [Stimulus and War Against Fossil Fuels are Boosting Coal](https://execspec.net/gas-railroads-coal-july-2021/) - The Government juiced post-pandemic U.S. economy is driving a surprsing boom in coal under the direction of the most anti-coal World Government bodies in history. While coal production has fallen more than 50% this past decade, a sudden shortage of energy supplies is now a sign of resilience for the dirtiest fossil fuel on the
- [Will Bull Market in Stocks Catch the Delta Virus](https://execspec.net/delta-virus-sp-stocks-bonds-yields/) - After an impressive 3 week run higher in the SP 500 Index to record highs into mid July as the seasonal charts expected, growing Bearish technical indicators were building for a market correction this past week. One of the prime triggers for the broad based selloff of 3 to 4% in the averages into the
- [Prepare for Peak Growth Rates This Cycle, But Not Peak Growth, Says Kurt Kallaus](https://execspec.net/prepare-for-peak-growth-rates-this-cycle-but-not-peak-growth-says-kurt-kallaus/) - Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense Wealth Management interviews ExecSpec June 30, 2021 [] [/]jEUWbr7iGEczpsRTzmEuGf03N8K3UYQdUfSboMId7yT0fBDeevBfzz1TmvQT9YXAXNWZpBw9vszFhzVnMz8eiMduNQjTnebqr0atGUvGSet-H6BiAfgCpLmJSxJQslBqXR4LPUW4D9mJWuVgc~CqjTRCzDoDozuB9BAwAyFhBMReJROFAnWCI4XOHKFBkkQBdnwvWRiU1NTF~fzlnIDwzR8QuIvFE8h894wgMO6Bg__&Key-Pair-Id=K1LU2TDL8E1644 to hear more from Financial Sense News Hour, click here: https://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour
- [Growth Stocks Grow Faster When Economy Slows](https://execspec.net/stocks-gdp-covid-yields-june-2021/) - FANG is back! - for now. Last year when the economy was in partial lockdown, the slow growth "stay at home" world was all about Tech. With low interest rates and a need for productivity to overcome the Covid cap to an economic recovery, Government stimulus became gasoline for tech stock investors led by FAANG
- [Bullish Economic Infrastructure vs Human Infrastructure](https://execspec.net/bulls-economy-stocks-banks-sp-2021/) - Social Justice warriors have a new label under Human Infrastructure. Traditional infrastructure deals with roads, bridges and power grid types of spending. This week a seemingly miraculous $1.2 Trillion infrastructure spending agreement was concluded with rare bipartisan support which has boosted related stocks. However, investors thus far don't understand that this spending bill is completely
- [US Dollar Deflates Commodity Inflation](https://execspec.net/dollar-deflation-commodity-inflation-2021/) - Inflation rate is at 29 year highs! The economic recovery from Covid has transitioned from surplus to scarcity of virtually everything. Nobody, including our maligned Fed Chair Jerome Powell, denies the irrefragable truth that we are in cycle of above normal price increases. The real issue is how sticky or ephemral is the inflation trend.
- [Looking for the Lag Trade](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-dow-gdp-june2021/) - This report will look at the lag trade, seeking stocks that have yet to recover from Covid or paused long enough to resume their advance. Before we share that list we would note that the stock market as a whole is once again pushing into an area of high risk for a potential correction of
- [Long Term Transitory Inflation](https://execspec.net/inflation-sp-stocks-bonds-yields-june-2021/) - As the Covid coma of 2020 has morphed into the economic boom of 2021, inflation has become a top concern among forecasters with Google searches for “inflation” spiking above peaks from 10 and 13 years ago. The last inflation anxiety peak was in 2010-11, when the post financial crisis fiscal stimulus amounted to 10% of
- [8 Million Jobs Lost and 8 Million Jobs Available](https://execspec.net/economy-gdp-inflation-stocks-jobs/) - Help wanted signs everywhere and a record 8.1 million jobs available. Where have all the good workers gone? For reasons that appear abstruse to economists, millions of prime aged adults are increasingly not returning to their jobs. Pundits opine that: wages are too low, that we need more day care collectives for our Borg toddlers,
- [Breakout Fakeout Warning from Worlds Biggest Stocks](https://execspec.net/amazon-apple-economy-stimulus-stocks/) - The top 3 stocks by market capitalization on the planet are Apple, Microsoft and then Amazon. With a combined value of almost $6 Trillion, more than the entire value of the Japanese stock market, investor reactions to their quarterly results are worth watching. While the old adage of Buy the rumor, Sell the News is
- [Government Stimulus for Nothing, Debt for Free ?](https://execspec.net/stimulus-debt-inflation-economy-2021/) - It's an old political game: never let a good crisis go to waste. Under the guise of desperate times require desperate measures, politicians use every financial crisis to create costly spending programs lasting for years beyond the crisis. Both parties use the power of the Government purse in every Recession. It's fair to argue that
- [Party Like It's 1899 - Jobs Market](https://execspec.net/covid-vaccinations-jobs-sp-stocks-gdp/) - In 1982 Prince wrote his iconic song, Party Like It's 1999 in part to mock the early 80's period of extreme economic pessimism and heightened fear of nuclear Armageddon. The 1999 date was the biblical end of times - end of the millennium - thus the clarion call to party as if it's your last.
- [Stocks Struggle with Rising Dollar](https://execspec.net/stocks-dollar-covid19-yields-qqq/) - In 1973, when inflation pressures forced the the US Government to abandon the Bretton Woods system of gold backed fixed currency pegs, the world embarked on a journey of ever escalating leverage. The Dollar initially devalued sharply along with stocks until higher interest rates created a base value. Bond yields then fell for the next
- [Stocks Scared by Faster or Slower Economy](https://execspec.net/stocks-yields-europe-covid-economy/) - As virtually all major US stock indices rallied yet again to all time record highs in March, worry levels surged along with interest rates over a fear of an overheating economy that would lead to tighter credit conditions. Tech stocks became the canary in the credit yield coal mine as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) sold
- [Stimulus May Juice Economy to Record Double Digit Growth](https://execspec.net/march-2021-gdp-growth-record/) - Click here to listen to ExecSpec's Kurt Kallaus being interviewed by Cris Sheridan in March 2021: http://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__bit.ly_30BZ6iT&d=DwMFaQ&c=euGZstcaTDllvimEN8b7jXrwqOf-v5A_CdpgnVfiiMM&r=5w7EP6iA5OsYWCNn1zXV4Y7FNON9mCbRJa72P-fk-Dw&m=Bo1vhNQhBN5KNwYsnUJW05UrDrQQc1Zm38Ri_8VbpAI&s=hmkESVCR_7CanCI2Hn3hE9R1HxXdkSyB7Emgmehxqrs&e= Stimulus May Juice Economy to Record Double-Digit Growth, Says Kurt Kallaus WITH CRIS SHERIDAN Mar 11 – FS Insider speaks with Kurt Kallaus at ExecSpec.net to get an update on his economic and market outlook.
- [Stimulus: Can There Be Too Much Of A Good Thing?](https://execspec.net/stimulus-covid-sp-gdp-inflation/) - What are the unintended consequences of having too much of a good thing? Will too much free money trigger such a spike in inflation and borrowing costs that the parabolic rise in stocks triggers another crash? As we have often discussed, the biggest lesson learned from the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 was that
- [Raging Rates Sink Stocks Short Term](https://execspec.net/stocks-bonds-yields-sp-dow-qe/) - Rates are all the rage these days. The Fed, backed by their unlimited digital printing press, promised us rock bottom interest rates into 2022. The $14 Trillion US Treasury Bond market however has become the Reddit bane of the Feds existence by selling Bonds, forcing yields higher much earlier than the Fed prefers while Covid
- [MMT to Infiniti Dominates Economic Policy](https://execspec.net/mmt-economic-stimulus-gdp-stocks-sp/) - In the depths of the 1930's Great Depression, British economist John Maynard Keynes came into vogue espousing the heavy hand of Government to counter consumption contractions with massive deficit spending. While WWII had more to do with our eventual exit from the deflationary 1930's catastrophe than Keynes' deficit spending, the winds of worry shifted to
- [Stock Bulls Create Shortage of Short Interest](https://execspec.net/stocks-bulls-shorts-options-stimulus/) - In 1609 a majority shareholder and competitor of the famous Dutch East India Company (controlled 50% of world trade in 1700's), created a primitive Hedge Fund to sink its shares for profit. Isaac Le Maire invented the idea of selling shares short, borrowing shares using collateral, in the hope of delivering the shares back to
- [What Does It Meme?](https://execspec.net/reddit-stocks-speculation-amc-gme/) - What does it mean when meme stocks rise and fall like fireworks? Bankrupt stocks rising 400% in a day. Collapsing companies garner Billions from financial justice warriors bidding up their failing enterprise. Clandestine traders rally their troops on social media to punish professional money managers as a pretense for running up stocks to astronomical values.
- [Trillionaire Derby](https://execspec.net/trillionaire-stocks-tesla-amazon/) - A million dollars doesn't go as far as it used to, but with over 50 Million Millionaires today and almost 10,000 Billionaires (net worth> $Billion), have you ever wondered who could be the first Trillionaire? Just over 2 years ago the first onslaught of companies arrived to the Trillion dollar market cap club led by
- [Extreme Euphoria with Biden Stimulus](https://execspec.net/stocks-options-tesla-gdp-stimulus/) - Tesla has been an amazing story of a dominant new electric vehicle company. The stock has been a sign of the gambling fever taking over the stock market led by Robin Hood commission free traders as Tesla rose 750% this past year. A price to sales ratio over 30 and price to forward earnings over
- [Senator Manchin Quells Democrat Extremism](https://execspec.net/elections-economy-jobs-stimulus/) - Senate Majority leader Schumer, House majority leader Pelosi and President Biden will officially control the decision making for the next couple of years and send shivers down the backs of most Republican's who have been fed a steady diet of extreme proposals during the election: packing the Supreme Court, Green New Deal and eliminating the
- [The First Quarter of 2021 Was a Heck of a Year!](https://execspec.net/2021-pmi-gdp-stocks-inflation-stimulus/) - Just when it felt like the stock market and rebounding economy were finally ready to take a pitstop to grab a snack, waves of good news flooded their engines with rocket fuel this year. The departing and incoming Governments passed 2 massive stimulus bills totaling almost $3 Trillion in recent months. The Fed promised to
- [For Stock Investors, Every Day is Like Christmas](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-nasdaq-ipo-covid-economy/) - The Covid Bull market in stocks is sledding through the Holiday season as if every day were Christmas. Airbnb more than doubled on its opening day as a public company this month. Luminar, Snowflake, Lemonade and many more also doubled within hours of their initial public offering (IPO) price in recent weeks. The Renaissance IPO
- [Good News Train Keeps Rolling](https://execspec.net/stocks-economy-qe-inflation-covid/) - One of the better known stock market adages is that Bull markets climb a wall of worry. The wall of concern created by Covid has been a long one as the running of the Bulls out of the Bear trap in March continues unabated. The economy can't fully open up until herd immunity to Covid
- [Vaccine Trifecta Accelerates Shift to Reopening Stocks](https://execspec.net/vaccine-covid-dow-boeing-stocks/) - For almost 3 months the major stock indices have traded sideways, consolidating the supercharged Fed and Government stimulus aided gains since March. With stocks nearing short term overbought levels within this range in early November, the vaccine miracle makers launched a trifecta of Covid cures. The equity buying binge began with Pfizer on November 9th,
- [Investors See Light at the End of the Covid Tunnel](https://execspec.net/investors-sp-dow-stocks-economy-election/) - When Pfizer declared a 90% effective Covid vaccine this week, the mask wearing world bought recovery stocks with reckless abandon. Investors see the vaccine light at the end of the Covid tunnel. Short term we are still in the dark tunnel of winter that is already witnessing reduced consumer activity with almost zero economic growth
- [November Market Top as Lockdowns Grow](https://execspec.net/arms-trin-stocks-sp-stimulus/) - Technical market condition edging into overbought zone: Stocks are up in Arms over the elections. That is, the ubiquitous Trading Index in financial circles named after Richard Arms in 1967, continues to accurately identify areas of oversold and overbought conditions in the stock market. The Arms Index or TRIN compares a moving average of up
- [Virus Lockdown Fears Infect Stocks](https://execspec.net/covid-virus-pandemic-stocks/) - THE topic of 2020 and beyond is the response to the Covid 19 pandemic. The Government lockdowns devastated the economy and stocks. Fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted the economy and stocks faster than anyone expected. Global Governments created a micro Depression in March by shutting down the economy and then injected Trillions in stimulus money
- [Will Inflation Return After Covid?](https://execspec.net/sp-inflation-covid-bonds-metals/) - The Inflationary 1970's was one of the more profound periods in our modern economic history. Leaving the Gold standard in 1971 to prevent a run on our gold supply triggered double digit inflation and tainted the textbook understanding of debt and money supply upon inflation. The surging consumer prices in the 1970's was a one
- [Mail in Mayhem Could Offer Buy the Dip Moment](https://execspec.net/sp-dow-stocks-gdp-elections/) - Only twice in the past 92 years have we had stock market gains in the 3 months prior to the Presidential election where the incumbent party lost. Given the Black Swan event of a pandemic and an estimated 50 Million+ mail in ballots and early voting likely, our confidence levels of the Presidential outcome are
- [Trump Requires an October Surprise](https://execspec.net/polls-election-president-stocks-bonds-gold/) - In 2016 both political parties powerful polemic against the FBI led to one of the more controversial elections and transfers of power in history, leading to four years of investigations that continue today. Many expect 2020 to provide even more fireworks and uncertainty. In both elections there has been a persistently wide polling margin in
- [Record Consumer Wealth Ready for Pandemic Free 2021](https://execspec.net/economy-stocks-consumption-debt-wealth/) - Human nature is captivated by negative emotions more than positive. Perhaps it's related to our innate flight or fight protective DNA that causes the media to sell disconcerting stories rather than the favorable news. In the financial world we hear of scary individual debt liability levels hitting new records almost every year without considering asset
- [September Low is Part of Longer Term Consolidation](https://execspec.net/election-stocks-sp-sentiment-gdp-correction/) - As the election countdown approaches, the stark contrast in the opponents and uncertainty of a clear quick outcome have escalated. Stocks peaked September 2nd and have been in a corrective mode throughout much of September. Our September 2nd ExecSpec letter indicated a possible immediate top with a drop into mid to late September to the
- [Panic Stock Buying as Betting Markets Shift Toward Trump](https://execspec.net/stocks-inflation-polls-election-sp/) - The Fed money printing machine, zero bound borrowing rates and Government handouts are the primary factors in a record breaking 5+ month rally that has surprised all forecasts. Another tailwind for stocks have been the improving poll numbers and betting market sentiment trending toward a Trump victory. The average of nominal polling surveys are clearly
- [Election Inflection](https://execspec.net/election-sp-stocks-homes-guns-5g/) - Once every four years investors contemplate the inflection point of electing a new President and its economic and personal portfolio impact. Most of the 58 Presidential elections since our country's founding have been better than pessimists had feared, but inevitable political campaigning works overtime to convince us the end is nigh if the other party
- [An Apple a Day Keeps the Bear Market Away](https://execspec.net/apple-microsoft-amazon-stocks-bear-bull-sp-dow/) - An Apple a day keeps Bearish investors at bay and the road to riches paved by high tech gold. This revenue gold is being minted by technology behemoths and cloud princes that have proven to be consistent growers in good times and bad. The leadership in this market is narrow during a COVID impaired economy
- [Tainted Tech Infects Stocks](https://execspec.net/tainted-tech-infects-stocks/) - Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton created the first American Stock Exchange in 1792 at a coffee house on the corner of Wall and Broad in Manhattan. It was dominated by Banks and Insurance companies and certainly low tech. Increasingly our modern stock exchange propagates an ever evolving technology sector worth trillions with its tentacles in every
- [COVID Concerns Curtail Consumer](https://execspec.net/covid-stocks-mortgage-housing/) - The invisible hand of market forces steering our economy is still a corona virus. The economy contracted at a record 30+% pace when this pandemic spurred a national lockdown and when COVID metrics improved from late April to mid June we saw an improving economic scorecard as many cities slowly reopened for business. When viral
- [Housing Market Providing Shelter During Pandemic](https://execspec.net/housing-covid-stocks-economy-construction/) - "Build it and they will come" (Field of Dreams) is a demand driven mantra that applies to the secular housing shortage today. The normal business world responds to shortages by rationing supply with higher prices until production can rise to meet demand. However, over the past decade the residential construction industry has been unable to
- [Stocks Pause as Fed Punchbowl Springs a Leak](https://execspec.net/stocks-fed-banks-sp-qe-covid/) - Don't fight the Fed is a well worn adage that has proven its value once again during the COVID-19 pandemic as record injections of Central Bank (Fed) reserves coincided with a record run higher in our stock market. The Fed began its quantitative easing (QE) experiment when they printed a whopping $3.6 Trillion of imaginary
- [Rising Recovery Risk on 2nd Wave Corona Cases](https://execspec.net/covid-stocks-gdp-sp-corona/) - The family of crown shaped coronaviruses has been identified in humans since 1965, originally associated with the harmless common cold. With 7 known types of regal looking coronaviruses known to infect humans, the current COVID-19 cousin is most closely related to the Chinese SARS virus (or COV-2) that appeared in 2002. COVID-19 is far more
- [Stronger Stocks When High Unemployment](https://execspec.net/stocks-unemployment-economy-jobs-sp-dow/) - The record setting Bull market in stocks since 2009 had reached a parabolic climax in February. The 1st quarter culmination was particularly amazing in that the US economy had been slowing for months and the growing Covid pandemic had already shut down China and begun moving into the rest of the world. When the pandemic
- [Covid is Messing With Texas and Investors](https://execspec.net/stocks-covid-sp-dow-economy/) - Don't Mess With Texas! Covid-19 is threatening Texans proud history of First Amendment expression. After more than 2 months of social distancing and thousands of shuttered businesses, Texas partially opened its economy in May and June. Thus it was not a surprise that Covid cases began rising in the Lone Star state in late May
- [Gold Untethered to Inflation and Fed Money Machine](https://execspec.net/economy-inflation-stocks-qe-dollar-gold/) - The 2.6% rise in April food prices was the largest monthly surge in 46 years! On queue, some forecasters blamed it on the Money Supply, Government debt and the Trillions of dollars our Central Bank (Fed) created out of thin air. Soaring grocery costs pale in contrast to the broader trend in U.S. prices, which
- [Stocks Plunge on 2nd Wave Fears](https://execspec.net/covid-cases-stocks-economy/) - Covid-19 trends are critical to our health, economy and of course the stock market as we all struggle to determine future valuations in this historically volatile environment. After a huge 45% rally in stocks since the March 23rd lows, the market went into cardiac arrest for a day losing 6% in value over fear of a renewed
- [Pajama Traders' Bankruptcy Bull Market](https://execspec.net/stocks-bull-sp-economy-bankruptcies/) - Since the shortest Bear market ever transitioned into a record Bull market in March, there has been an insolvency impulse by small investors. Esurient equity buying behavior of pajama traders is being spurred by up to $5,000 a month of Unemployment and Care package money in the pockets of novice investors. Free trading platform Robin
- [Best Job Gains Ever on 10 Million Miss in Unemployment](https://execspec.net/economy-stocks-sp-unemployment-jobs/) - Consensus forecasts are never precise and during this historic health experiment inducing an economic heart attack to battle a pandemic, wide margins of error in expectations are unsurprising. Normally a forecast miss of 100,000 in payroll estimates is shocking, but adjectives are elusive when describing a consensus miss of 10 Million. Today the nonfarm payrolls
- [Billions of Stimulus Dollars in Quarantine](https://execspec.net/china-stocks-economy-covid-savings-income/) - The renewed Civil Rights movement triggered by last weeks shocking murder of an African American over a tortuous 8 minutes and 46 seconds may be the tragic change-agent straw that will leave an indelible mark upon our society. Hopefully the unified record response to the Covid-19 pandemic will be exceeded with a fervor in actions
- [Home Buying Up Despite Depression Level Unemployment](https://execspec.net/housing-depression-unemployment-mortgages-fed/) - It's widely assumed that consumer spending and home buying will remain depressed while virus fears are elevated. When the US and most of the globe shut down their economies to slow the Covid pandemic in March, there was no time to examine unintended consequences. With a health emergency projecting Millions of deaths in the US
- [In the Fed We Trust](https://execspec.net/gdp-fed-covid-economy-qe/) - E Pluribus Unum (out of many,one) has been the unofficial US motto since the birth of our country in 1776. This 13 letter phrase cleverly symbolized the core formation of our country from the original 13 colonies. In 1956 the US enshrined "In God WE Trust" on all currency as our official motto. While both
- [Stock Market Lacks Consensus](https://execspec.net/stocks-futures-sentiment-options-put-call/) - One of the more popular guides to investing utilizes Contrary Opinion. Contrarian investors sell when the majority are buying, and buy when most are selling. Bullish and Bearish sentiment metrics seek to find periods when Sellers or Buyers have moved to historical extremes and have nearly exhausted their funds available to keep the underlying trend
- [Unemployment: Darkest Before the Dawn](https://execspec.net/unemployment-gdp-stocks-china-covid/) - Sensationalism Sells and our schadenfreude media must be clamoring for their Starbucks fix to keep up with the proliferating once in a lifetime scary Corona stories. Portraying life as a dystopian disaster film manipulates society's collective anger with the macabre tracking of daily Covid death counts, bankruptcies and comparisons among states and countries to see who
- [April Stock Market Rally Forecasting More Jobs - But Not Yet](https://execspec.net/stock-bull-bear-unemployment/) - With estimated April unemployment already within marching distance of the dire Great Depression levels of the 1930's, the stock market seems obtuse to have recouped most of its losses for 2020. As a leading indicator, stocks appear to foresee a partial V shaped economic recovery over the next year. March was one of the worst
- [QE Begins: Fed Prints Record $2.4 Trillion in 8 Weeks to Prevent Deflation](https://execspec.net/fed-qe-dollar-stocks-debt/) - During the depths of the 2008-2009 Great Recession, the Fed began a 6 year money creation scheme expanding bank balance sheets by $3.5 Trillion dollars without a post recovery inflation as many feared. This digital explosion of our money supply is now being surpassed during the age of Corona with another $2.4 Trillion in just
- [Trump Mandates OPEC Supply Cuts, Oil Falls 300%](https://execspec.net/oil-economy-stocks-volatility-opec/) - The US Oil industry began in 1857 with wildcatters and has always had an entrepreneurial aspect. As with any industry, consolidation occurs as an industry grows and participants become numerous. When inevitable economic shocks occur, like the 2020 Coronavirus, prices and profitability fall until a Darwinian shift triggers enough bankruptcies to bring supply and demand
- [Waiting on the Corona Curve Collapse](https://execspec.net/stocks-covid-corona-china-virus/) - After a month of social and economic lock-downs around the world, a few things have become clear. New COVID-19 cases must trend lower for a couple weeks before societal restrictions can begin subsiding. Once the Corona fires are under control short term, then its agreed we need widespread frequent testing and eventually treatments that prevent
- [Leisure Leading an Inhospitable Economy Lower as COVID Optimism Rises](https://execspec.net/covid-gdp-sp-economy-stocks/) - Hospitably has been quite inhospitable to investors in March. Unemployment claims are about 10 times greater in recent weeks than in the depths of the last Recession. National unemployment is nearly 14% and appears destined to breach 20%. RavnAir Group, the largest regional carrier in Alaska, filed for bankruptcy this past week. Delta, American, Spirit,
- [COVID Crushes Crude Oil Demand](https://execspec.net/covid-oil-energy-stocks-virus/) - As the COVID-19 epidemic in China crept into the headlines in early January, the economic uncertainty sent Oil down a modest $10/barrel into the $50's. When the virus broke out in Europe and the US in late February, the evolving pandemic finally rang alarm bells and crushed Oil consumption forecasts, triggering 20 year lows at
- [Trump Mandates an End to Bear Market](https://execspec.net/unemployment-stocks-economy-gdp-sp-dow-fed/) - Like a balloon under water, the stock market zoomed higher on unmanned algorithmic trading by 20% this past week on a trifecta of Monetary, Fiscal and Executive actions indicating our economy will not be allowed to fail. The first salvo was fired by the Federal Reserve Bank on March 22nd promising unlimited quantitative easing (QE
- [What Coronavirus Data Can We Trust From China?](https://execspec.net/march-2020-coronavirus-china/) - There are lies, damn lies and statistics, as the saying goes. Regarding China, the data implies they have lied about their statistics, yet there is evidence the COVID crisis in China is indeed mostly over as they claim. It's inconceivable that a country of 1.4 Billion people who waited almost 2 months to implement a
- [When to Buy the COVID Crash](https://execspec.net/covid-stocks-gdp-economy-recession-bull-bear/) - High quality stocks are down over 70%, and the broad markets are down by a third with some of the gloomiest oversold sentiment levels in history. With a sharp but short term Recession currently being priced into stocks its tempting to throw all your reserves into stocks while the tide is out. However, we are
- [Bonds Yield to Covid-19](https://execspec.net/bonds-yield-covid-coronavirus-gdp-stocks/) - When the global pandemic was just beginning to spread outside of China in early February, most expected multiple Federal Funds Rate cuts. However, nobody expected interest rates to yield so quickly to fear from the COVID-19 virus. Despite a massive 150 basis point cut in Fed Funds from 1.5% to zero in just 11 days,
- [Government Mandated Recession](https://execspec.net/gdp-recession-sp-dow-stocks-economy/) - Governments around the world have mandated a deep global recession! To better nuance such a preposterous sounding statement we would say the US and all Governments fear the COVID-19 virus more than an economic contraction and have determined that the only way to slow this pandemic is to severely restrict movement and economic activity, triggering
- [Broken China Supply Chain](https://execspec.net/pmi-business-china-coronavirus/) - The world relies upon China as the critical supply chain for the world. They produce 70 to 80% of the worlds air-conditioners and cell phones. They supply tools and materials for factories and pharmaceutical companies around the globe. China has been desperate to control the narrative of their homegrown Covid-19 pandemic as they engineer a
- [Pandemic of Fear Threatens Oil and Stock Prices](https://execspec.net/pandemic-virus-oil-stocks/) - Fear of the unknown about the Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a problem. Central Banks can print Trillions and cut interest rates, but they can't make people fly on planes and they can't speed up a cure. There is no vaccine likely until the virus is no longer a threat, but global government responses to combating this
- [China's Butterfly Effect Causes Stock Market Storm](https://execspec.net/china-coronavirus-sp-stocks-bonds-yields-oil/) - The Butterfly effect is often exemplified by the hyperbolic statement that "the flapping of a butterfly's wings can cause a hurricane on the other side of the world". While such a statement can never be proven, the concept of small changes in one area causing larger effects far away is increasingly valid in our interdependent
- [Booming Economy?](https://execspec.net/gdp-economy-wages-stocks-sp/) - As the Political season heats up, the battle for voters inspires a steady stream of hyperbole on both sides. President Trump claims this is the best economy ever, while the Left asserts solemnly that most people are struggling. Those in power want you to believe you feel better than ever and those seeking power want
- [Stocks Catch Corona Fever](https://execspec.net/economy-coronavirus-stocks-commodities-china/) - After 3 years of stellar consumer confidence and soaring stock prices, investors reached a crescendo of exuberance and record setting optimism that warned of a market priced for perfection. Suddenly on our forecasted topping date of January 24th, the stock market caught Corona fever. Normally an excessively positive running of the bulls is a vulnerability
- [Stocks Priced for Perfection, Hold the Corona](https://execspec.net/stocks-bonds-earnings-coronavirus/) - The economy is finishing its eleventh year of continuous expansion with virtually full employment, no overheating and excellent levels of consumer spending and optimism. Stocks often move months in advance of earnings and GDP trends and currently appears priced for perfection and better growth ahead. The benchmark SP 500 Index rose a stellar 28% in
- [Stock Market Euphoria Firing on All Cylinders](https://execspec.net/stock-market-china-futures-2020/) - Meltups and running stock markets refer to euphoric periods when equity prices rise rapidly and continuously without corrections. It's a time when stocks can rise on negative news and technical indicators can remain overbought for an extended duration with less volatility. Classic longer term examples of this during our record decade plus Bull market occurred
- [Low Wage Workers Get No Respect](https://execspec.net/jobs-unemployment-gdp-stocks/) - Every election cycle we hear a crescendo of complaints that the poorest workers, the average Joe, are being left behind while the rich get richer. While historically the income gap between rich and poor rises when the economy grows and narrows when the economy contracts, equality seekers should feel some satisfaction that low wage workers are
- ['It's a Wonderful Life' for Stocks Ignoring Christmas Past](https://execspec.net/gold-stocks-inflation-aussie/) - On a gloomy Christmas eve one year ago the stock market had completed a 3 month correction into a panic low of more than 20%, equaling its largest decline of the past decade. After a tremendous rally in the first and a fourth quarters of 2019, the pulse of the stock market has completed a rebound from
- [Art of the Trade Deal Counters Recession Ruminations](https://execspec.net/stocks-trade-economy-gdp-recession/) - Often when US Presidents can score a single major legislative accomplishment during their tenure it's enough for the history books. Reagan had the massive Supply Side tax cuts, Clinton passed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Obama's landslide election mandate gave us Obamacare. Trump made history with his historic corporate and personal tax cuts
- [Markets Ignoring Impeachment Hearings but Watch What Happens Dec. 15, Says Kurt Kallaus](https://execspec.net/novemebr-21-interview-stocks-economy/) - Markets Ignoring Impeachment Hearings but Watch What Happens Dec. 15, Says Kurt Kallaus Our most recent interview with Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense Wealth Management on November 21st can be heard here. http://static.financialsense.com/audio/2019-11/financial-sense-20191121-kallaus-914fd9586.mp3 Topics covered: Recession and the economic cycle stage we are in Effect of Impeachment hearings and outcome Effect of Democrat candidates platform
- [Trump Veto of Hong Kong Sanctions Would be Positive Signal](https://execspec.net/stocks-trump-veto-sanctions-china/) - Trump has 10 days to decide on approving or vetoing the House legislation on Hong Kong Human Rights Act (HR3289) which just passed in the House. This relatively toothless Bill is meant to embarrass the Chinese and President Trump, declaring China a Human Rights violator and daring the President to object. All the initial media
- [Fed Declares 'Sustained Expansion' and Low Inflation 'Likely'](https://execspec.net/stocks-investor-fed-yields-pce-gdp/) - In a moment of unprofound insight lacking sound and fury meaning absolutely nothing to investor expectations, Fed Chief Powell this past week made the most anodyne comments possible that the economy was likely to continue growing. It's also likely that the Fed has never forecast anything but continued economic growth as it tends to be reactive
- [China Says Deal, Tariff Man Says No Deal](https://execspec.net/china-trump-president-tariff-stocks/) - Has there ever been a Bull market in stocks more connected to the words of one person? Presidential palaver and Trumpian tweets frequently rule day to day market action. In recent months the words coming from the Oval Office have pushed stock prices around in a 10% range repeatedly. In early August, when Trade talks
- [Record Economy: This Time Is Different?](https://execspec.net/gdp-recession-yields-rates-debt-consumer/) - "This time is different" are four famous last words considered by famed fund manager John Templeton to be the most costly phrase in history for investors. Prominent economists Reinhart and Rogoff have written extensively that throughout history cycles repeat in a similar fashion with excessive debt creation for economic growth until the elevation of risks from
- [Sentiment Nearing Oversold](https://execspec.net/sp-dow-corrrection-sentiment-bulls-bears/) - Frequently our reports focus on the big picture of fundamental macroeconomic factors to forecast the economic risk of a contraction or acceleration. Readers know we create a plethora of proxies to determine intrinsic value based upon history, looking at loan defaults, bond spreads, labor trends, credit standards and various surveys of consumers and businesses. Today's report will be a
- [Will Concern Consume Consumer?](https://execspec.net/sentiment-employment-stocks-gdp/) - Should US consumers feel consumed by the growing avalanche of negative news? There is an unending tariff war between the worlds two biggest economies, risk of a Hard Brexit impairing the UK, a US manufacturing recession and high odds of a Presidential impeachment. Reflecting this anxiety and uncertainty manifests in optimism among corporate executives and consumers now at the
- [Banking Profits on Falling Yields](https://execspec.net/banking-profits-yields-financials/) - Astute investors know to shun bank stocks when interest rates fall. They are aware that as the gap between the interest paid on deposits and the return on loans shrink, so do net interest margins. Interest rates have fallen sharply over the past 12 months, with the 10 Year Treasury yield collapsing from 3.2% to as low as 1.4%
- [Sentiment Sours Before Stocks Sink](https://execspec.net/sentiment-gdp-stocks-recession-consumer/) - Early stage industrial economies rely on manufacturing for the majority of their value of goods and services produced (GDP). As economies mature with rising living standards, there is a shift to consumption and services providing the vast majority of GDP and employment. One hundred years ago, less than 40% of US labor was tethered to the
- [Fed Rate Cuts Based on Perception Not Reality](https://execspec.net/fed-yields-bonds-stocks-gdp-economy/) - The 106 year old Federal Reserve Bank of the US controls monetary policy to influence economic conditions, primarily by moving short term bank borrowing rates and bank reserves. Surveys predict 100% confidence in a Federal Reserve Rate cut on September 18th and high odds of another cut before year end. Stock and bond yields are
- [In Search of Recession](https://execspec.net/google-stocks-gdp-recession/) - It's well known that bad news garners more attention than good. Record devastation from an approaching hurricane, burning down the rain-forest, financial panic in the investment markets are some of the recent hyper headlines sparking interest. Most of the time the bark is worse than the bite, as reality is better than feared. The dreaded
- [Stock Market and Oil Remain Tightly Correlated](https://execspec.net/stocks-oil-sp-dow-correction/) - Future economic expectations are strong drivers of both Oil prices and the Stock Market. A slowing economy portends lower demand for Oil and reduced earnings for stocks. While Oil doesn't always lead the stock market, they are highly correlated and if Oil breaks below multi-month support it will be a warning that stocks may do the
- [Gold Bulls Stampede Recession Bears](https://execspec.net/gold-bulls-dollar-bears/) - For almost 1600 years Hong Kong was a part of Chinese dynasties. When more advanced Western countries asserted their dominance over Chinese trade, the Opium Wars were fought. The result was a humiliating defeat of China who ceded Hong Kong to the British crown in 1842. The British allowed China to regain official control of Hong Kong
- [Huawei Reprieve, Global Stimulus Rally Stocks](https://execspec.net/huawei-recession-sp-dow-stocks/) - Another Trump overture to Chinese technology giant Huawei to help US companies along with the proposed German and Chinese plans for stimulus have helped the stock market rebound sharply the past 3 days. As much as Trump wants to tighten the screws on China to coerce a trade deal, US and global tech is stubbornly dependent
- [Forget the Yield Curve, Watch Consumer Staples](https://execspec.net/yiled-curve-inversion-gdp-stocks-labor/) - The Inverted Yield Curve with short term rates above long rates has been one of the most anticipated over hyped harbingers of doom and gloom in history. For over a year Bearish forecasters sounded the alarm bells of a coming contraction as the Yield inversion approached, even though histrionically this is one of the best periods for stocks and the
- [August 8, 2019 Interview of ExecSpec's Kurt Kallaus with Financial Sense](https://execspec.net/august-8-2019-interview-of-execspecs-kurt-kallaus-with-financial-sense/) - http://static.financialsense.com/audio/2019-08/financial-sense-20190813-kallaus-0973b831efcf70.mp3 Visit FinancialSense.com for articles and interviews with many forecasters, money managers and economists
- [August - October Correction](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-dow-nasdaq-august-china/) - US stocks continue to outpace world markets despite increasing evidence of a US economic slowdown and weak corporate earnings. Equities are heavily influenced by expectations of future business earnings, yet stocks remain elevated in part due to the high confidence in aggressive rate cutting by our Central Bank that is assumed will stimulate our GDP and
- [Beggar Thy Neighbor Yields and Economic Cycle Low](https://execspec.net/yields-gdp-bonds-stocks-gold/) - In the final 4 months of 2018 there were over 40 central banks interest rate hikes from around the world despite clear global slowing throughout 2018. In the past 4 months over 40 central bank rate cuts have occurred. More rate cuts are coming, as investment markets are leading the fed and demanding it with
- [China Flight Boosting Gold and Bitcoin](https://execspec.net/china-gold-bitcoin-crypto-dollar-yuan/) - It's been 10 years since cryptographically secure digital assets such as Bitcoin came into existence. After an abysmal 2018, some wonder if Bitcoin's return to life in 2019 has been due to capital fleeing China to escape the effects of Trump tariffs. The charts are mixed, but lately as Chinese currency values fall, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin
- [Oil Balance Between Supply Glut and War Premium](https://execspec.net/oil-war-iran-uk-russia-energy/) - Petroleum prices have been coiling in recent months. US brinkmanship with Iran adds a premium, while the inexorable rise in US production favors more discounted values. If war breaks out the upper $60's to upper $70's is the logical target zone for WTI Crude Oil. Should the war risk be removed, then Oil in the lower $40's
- [Happy Consumers vs Worried Producers](https://execspec.net/consumers-manufacturing-pmi-gdp-china-us-europe/) - It's great news that our US economy (GDP) grew a better than expected 2.1 percent in the 2nd quarter. It's a far cry from the 3 to 5 percent Trump expects and the fluke 3.1 percent in the 1st quarter, but it's also a long way from the recession expectations of many economists for this
- [August Correction?](https://execspec.net/correction-stocks-market-sp-dow/) - Our June outlook was for continued gains throughout July until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting July 30th when a rate cut would be announced. With the market fixation on the Bullish high odds prospect of a Fed Funds rate cut to 2.25 percent, there were no news events likely that could derail the
- [US Leads World in Natural Gas Production and CO2 Reduction](https://execspec.net/energy-oil-gas-warming-co2/) - While the world awaits the day when the rapid growth of solar and wind supplant coal and oil, the quickest bridge to the alleged Utopian dream of clean air is Natural Gas. Europe may lead the world in Global Warming Alarmism, but the US is actually making the biggest dent in this effort without even trying. The US leads
- [The Empire Falls: Economy Stumbles](https://execspec.net/gdp-pmi-stocks-consumer-economy/) - Since 2001 the New York Federal Reserve has compiled a manufacturing survey of the NY Empire State. It moves in step with most other Fed district surveys and provides a good measure of the industrial sector. After rising from a near recessionary collapse in early 2016 to historic growth and optimism in 2017 and 2018, the Empire Index finally succumbed to trade war
- [Stocks at Record Highs as Economy Heads South](https://execspec.net/gdp-yields-rates-sp-stocks-economy/) - While we often downplay the importance of the inverted yield curve with short rates above long rates, there are many other warning signs of a slowing economy (GDP), weaker earnings and falling inflation. Bond yields have now fallen back to the moribund economic days of 2016 when the energy recession pushed the economy to the precipice of
- [Window of War Opening with Iran](https://execspec.net/oil-iran-trump-petroleum/) - When Trump offers an Olive branch saying "Let's Make Iran Great Again", he means "Let's Make Iran Weak Again", unless Iran makes a Sisyphean deal bowing to Trump's wishes. Even as a candidate it was clear this President would not allow Iran to dominate the Middle East, foment terror or advance its nuclear technology. We have been expecting
- [Bullard Wants a Rate Cut Now!](https://execspec.net/yields-gdp-fed-bonds-gdp/) - Prominent St Louis Fed Chair James Bullard doesn't like gaming investor expectations. The Federal Reserve has conveyed to the markets that they will not cut rates in June, but hinted the Fed will oblige in late July. Bullard feels that if you see weakness now that warrants lower interest rates, as the Fed does, then
- [Yield Curve Inversion was Unforced Error](https://execspec.net/yield-curve-inversion-gdp-stocks-sp/) - The Federal Reserve Bank was created 106 years ago to ensure the functioning of the US financial system with the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate interest rates. These goals are achieved through four mechanisms, but primarily through adjusting various central bank interest rates and the buying and selling of bonds. Over the
- [No China Pain, No Trade Gain](https://execspec.net/china-us-trade-tariff-gdp-stocks/) - While the "No Pain, No Gain" fitness mantra has been somewhat debunked, it may hold true with regards to Trump achieving an all encompassing Trade Agreement with China. Throughout the first 4 months of 2019, confidence in a first half of the year China trade deal soared along with stock investor portfolios. Suddenly, in early May,
- [Falling Rates: Headwind or Tailwind](https://execspec.net/yields-stocks-bonds-oil-china-fed/) - US Treasury debt instruments are deemed the safest in the world with the 10 Year Treasury Note being the most popular. While safety, foreign bond rate competition and inflation expectations are among the most important factors affecting the yields of US Treasuries, Quantitative Easing (QE) is also an influence in this unique era of printing money out of
- [Trump Moves Closer to Defanging Iran](https://execspec.net/oil-war-energy-gas-iran/) - Over 2,000 years ago Iran, known then as Persia, was the worlds first super power. Since becoming an anti-western theocratic Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has been in the cross-hairs of conservative leaders in the US. In 2016 President Trump campaigned on vows to defang Iran and has doggedly attacked Iran's economic and military vitality.
- [Trade War Casts Shadow on Goldilocks Economy](https://execspec.net/trade-goldilocks-economy-stocks-sp/) - Today's economy has often been called the Goldilocks economy: it's not too slow or fast, it's just about right. Economic Goldilocks today is manifested by persistently low inflation, interest rates and unemployment with simultaneous strong economic and income growth. After a record setting 10 year growth phase, the US is still firing on most of
- [New Trump Tariff Threat Tanks Stock Market](https://execspec.net/trump-tariff-stock-market-china-dow/) - Virtually every week this year confidence of a major trade agreement between the US and China has grown. Just a few days ago Trump surrogates spread rumors that a deal would be announced in a week. Suddenly, a lack of progress on trade deal enforcement terms has triggered Trump to threaten dramatic new tariffs on
- [Boeing a Bargain at Lower Altitudes](https://execspec.net/boeing-santander-goldman/) - Our Favorite Stock list has been consistently populated with growth and momentum stocks such as PayPal, Visa, Splunk, Coupa and Twilio. With some frothy values among this fast growing digital sector and a possible inflection point arriving with good or bad news out of the China and US trade progress this quarter, we are reviewing
- [Fed Misses on Inflation, Again](https://execspec.net/economy-gdp-inflation-stocks-pce/) - Most economists underestimated the stellar first quarter GDP of 3.2 percent and increasingly doubt their consensus 2020 recession forecast. While we also assumed a softer first quarter, we have remained Bullish on the economy and still expect no recession the next 2 years as the consensus of economists and CEO's have assumed. While our crystal
- [OPEC Supply Cuts End as Trump Chokes Iran](https://execspec.net/opec-oil-iran-china-energy-stocks/) - Once upon a time, Iranian rulers controlled almost half of civilization with an increasingly hostile view of progressive Western culture. In modern times, Iran was our close strategic ally for several decades after WWII, garnering the furtive muscle of the CIA to sustain the alliance. Unwittingly, President Eisenhower laid the foundation for Iranian and Pakistani
- [Economic Green Shoots Anticipate Trade Deal Bloom](https://execspec.net/economy-gdp-china-stocks-bulls/) - In 2018 the US economy expanded beyond its sustainable production capacity, juiced by massive tax cuts and global preordering ahead of Trump's tariff hikes. As winter approached we warned that the recession Bears would become more vocal as Europe edged closer to an economic contraction and the Fed induced equity panic coincided with slower earnings domestically. The service
- [Dollar's Heat Keeping Metals Soft](https://execspec.net/dollar-gold-palladium-silver-copper/) - Gold first became precious as an Egyptian status symbol about 5,000 years ago and was introduced as a form of money about 2,700 years ago in a country that later became a part of Turkey. While Platinum and Palladium have at times retained a higher value, Gold remains a very precious metal. With Gold and
- [Investors Appreciating the Dollar](https://execspec.net/dollar-swiss-yen-peso-pound-brexit-euro/) - In 1944 the dominance of the US Dollar was codified in the Bretton Woods agreement establishing it as the reserve currency of the planet. The Dollar was the natural choice since the world needed finite Gold backed currencies to prevent excess inflation and the US held 75 percent of the worlds gold. As inflation pressures in the
- [Stocks Anticipate a China Trade Deal and Stronger GDP](https://execspec.net/stocks-china-trade-gdp-emerging/) - The stock market discounts future expectations. The roaring rally of the past 14 weeks has cast aside recession ruminations and increasingly anticipates an economic rebound coincident with an important trade agreement with China. The benchmark SP 500 Index of stocks has just completed its best quarterly gain since 2009 and the best 1st quarter of a
- [Energy Market Near Seasonal Top](https://execspec.net/energy-oil-gas-crude-stocks/) - Since we forecasted the early 2016 low with Oil near $26, we have remained long term Bullish. In late 2018 we projected an intermediate correction low in this Oil Bull market down to the lower $40's and later we targeted a rebound above $60 in the Spring. Recent minor projections for $62.6 were reached today.
- [Ags, Softs and Meats Outlook](https://execspec.net/ags-softs-meats-dollar-china/) - As we review the perishable markets here we would note that theses commodities, despite Bullish conditions, are extremely tethered to the outcome of the US and China trade Deal due coming months. When a trade agreement arrives, we expect the US Dollar to commence a longer term decline as global growth prospects recover more robustly on
- [Aversion to Yield Curve Inversion](https://execspec.net/bonds-yield-inversion-stocks-gdp/) - Normal economic expansions are supported by positive sloping yield curves where riskier long duration maturities offer higher rates of return than lower risk short duration debt. Investor aversion to an inverted yield curve, where short term rates are higher than long term, is tethered to an assumption of credit tightening that is pricing in risk of an economic peak
- [Household Wealth Close to Stall Speed](https://execspec.net/wealth-recession-economy-gdp-china/) - Corporate balance sheets are in excellent shape, but equally impressive is the Net Worth of the American Household that grows virtually every single quarter year over year. During rare periods when it doesn't expand, it typically coincides with economic trouble. Historically, more than a 4% decline in sequential quarters is a warning and a year over year
- [Work Less Earn More](https://execspec.net/labor-wages-gdp-economy-stocks/) - Working fewer hours at higher pay sounds like a good thing. It may be better than it sounds. Both high skilled white collar and lower skilled blue collar jobs are requiring less education, offering more perks with less drug testing and above normal wage gains. Listening to politicians one might think these are the worst of
- [Car Loans Crash - No Impact](https://execspec.net/debt-defaults-stocks-economy-consumers/) - By early 2008, a few months after a major Bull market peak in stocks, Yellow Flags on the US economy had turned Red across the spectrum. Bond spread risks were spiking, consumer and business confidence surveys collapsing and many indicators were signaling trouble. Today's purveyors of gloom haven't given up the ghost from the last recession and
- [Where is the Next Sovereign Debt Crisis?](https://execspec.net/debt-gdp-japan-china-economy/) - US had a public debt of just $75 Million in 1791 and for more than a century afterwards the total public debt averaged just 2.5% of US economic production (GDP). Today's Government Debt is estimated to be $22 Trillion at roughly 107% of the size of our annual GDP. Historically, during economic downturns our political
- [Market Outlook Pivots on U.S.-China Trade Deal, Says Kurt Kallaus](https://execspec.net/execspec-kallaus-interview-fsn/) - Listen here for our discussion of the economy, stock market, oil and other trends in our interview by Cris Sheridan of the Financial Sense News network. We encourage you to read and subscribe to their service with over 100 contributors and some very well known economists and forecasters. https://www.financialsense.com/ Click play to hear the interview: http://static.financialsense.com/audio/2019-02/fsn2019-02-13-kallaus-d7fb46.mp3
- [The Dog Ate My Eurozone Recovery](https://execspec.net/eurozone-gdp-stocks-dollar-euro/) - European dysfunction is making Trump's economic 'strategery' look prescient. We all know that Trade Wars are bad for all economies, yet the US economy accelerated in 2018 while all others have slowed to a crawl as US tariff threats across multiple continents became reality. Perpetually fractured European leadership sat on its hands in recent years deferring to full
- [Stocks Sink on Fear of Trade Deal Delay](https://execspec.net/stocks-nasdaq-sp-dow-oil-dollar/) - The China Trade Deal expectations continue to be the most important driver of US stock indices in 2019. Bullish Trump tweets and robust rhetoric from Chinese leaders had buoyed investors more than recent dovish Fed commentary. Having already priced in an accommodative Fed and high odds of a deal with China on trade, stocks were
- [Powell Put and China Call](https://execspec.net/economy-china-trade-stocks-gdp/) - Too much credit for the stock market ascent has been assigned to the Powell Put, the assumption that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will stay accommodative until the economy accelerates and stocks reach new highs. A Put option is a hedge against downside risk, a protection vehicle that increases in value as prices decline. We agree
- [Oil Has Bottomed](https://execspec.net/oil-stocks-hedge-funds/) - While a renewed intractable Trade War with China and a US recession would ruin our call for an important bottom in Oil prices in the $40's, we feel the extreme pessimism among Money Managers in December regarding Texas Tea will provide support for Oil. The implication of this perspective is that the US and Global
- [Consumer Buckles but Unbowed](https://execspec.net/sentiment-consumer-stocks-gdp/) - Personal consumption is 70% of the US economy. While much of this is Government controlled (Medicare), untethered to actual consumer choices, it's a large enough number that many focus upon consumer health and sentiment for clues to economic trends. After reaching a euphoric 18 year high a few months ago, confidence has fallen to 2 year
- [January Rally Mirrors December Panic](https://execspec.net/qqq-sp-dow-technicals/) - The Dow has rallied over 3,000 points since the Christmas bottom (basis futures) and most indices are up 14 of the past 17 trading days. Financials have had their 2nd most rapid ascent in 20 years over a 15 day period. What's more impressive is the psychology of the market that is now the mirror
- [Was Santa Claus Climax THE Bottom?](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-vix-options-sentiment/) - Santa was right on time this year, but unlike last year's not stop sleigh ride to record heights, this year he left investor stockings with lumps of coal. The major US stock market indices fell 20% on average into the Christmas day low, with a climactic 4 day plunge of 2,500 DOW points on automated computer
- [Trade Deal Sentiment Pushes Dollar Lower](https://execspec.net/trade-gdp-stocks-deficit-yuan/) - President Trump campaigned in 2016 on making the US Dollar weak again to reduce the endless wave of record trade deficits with China. Clearly he delivered on that pledge throughout 2017 as the Dollar Index fell 12% and devalued almost 11% against the Chinese Renminbi (Yuan). While Trump delivered on the Dollar, the result thus
- [Sour Apple Guidance and Dovish Fed Gyrate Stocks](https://execspec.net/economy-china-gdp-stocks/) - Moribund Manufacturing data and slower growth guidance by Apple have exacerbated growing fears of recession, sending stocks plunging 3% on the January 3rd. However, exceptionally strong job growth and dovish support from Fed Chair Powell the next day sent stock soaring 4%. Making sense of the frequent news driven volatility is challenging, especially with the remaining major uncertainty
- [Frackers Trump OPEC](https://execspec.net/oil-fracking-opec/) - Frackers rule! The House of Saud may want to stabilize Brent Oil above $60 or $70 a barrel, but OPEC and Russia no longer control prices and haven't since the 2015 energy recession. Every time OPEC cuts production they essentially transfer that lost output as a gift to the US. Despite our long term expectation for US supplies to
- [Fed Rate Hike Threads the Needle Without the Thread](https://execspec.net/fed-rate-hike-stocks-bear/) - While we have been medium term Bearish on stocks and oil since early October, we published a flurry of newsletters between December 7th and 12th signaling even more trouble ahead. Our 3 Tests and a Tumble letter a couple weeks ago further detailed the markets penchant to bust through support after a price level has been clearly tested
- [December 11th Interview of ExecSpec on FSN Expecting Lower Stocks and Oil](https://execspec.net/december-11th-interview-of-execspec-on-fsn-expecting-lower-stocks-and-oil/) - http://static.financialsense.com/audio/2018-12/fsn2018-12-11-kallaus-8e639759388c.mp3
- [Three Steps and a Stumble](https://execspec.net/stock-dow-stocks-bear/) - Many years ago the "Three Steps and a Stumble" rule was popularized, referring to a pattern of three hikes in the Fed Discount Rate as a precursor to major stock and bond market downtrends. While not as a relevant, we adopted our own adage decades ago of 3 tests and a tumble, where price support
- [China Trade Tea Leaves: Deal or No Deal](https://execspec.net/china-tariff-stocks-copper/) - Concerns of an escalating US - China Trade War causing earnings downgrade contagion in 2019 has been a major factor in lower stocks prices. The benchmark SP 500 and Dow stock indices have just finished their 3rd test of the 10% correction support levels since the October 3rd record highs and one more test will likely trigger
- [Small Stock Investors Panic at the Lows](https://execspec.net/investor-sentiment-bears-bulls-stocks/) - The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) measure of small stock owner sentiment has just reached the most pessimistic levels in 33 months at the closing lows of this market correction to date. The last time the average investor was this Bearish occurred in early 2016 at the end of the global energy recession. An excellent time to Buy
- [Don't Buy the Dips Alarmism](https://execspec.net/vix-correction-stocks-gdp-earnings/) - Now that cash holdings are beating the stock market gains for 2018, "Goldman Says It's Time for Equity Investors to Boost their Cash"(11-20-18). Headlines from Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and many analysts warn that investors should not Buy the Dips and remain defensive. Anecdotally this is one of the more Alarmist mantras we have heard
- [November Interview of ExecSpec on Markets and Economy](https://execspec.net/november-interview-of-execspec-on-markets-and-economy/) - November 7th interview of ExecSpec by Cris Sheridan of FinancialSense.com http://static.financialsense.com/audio/2018-11/fsn2018-1108-1-72262254.mp3 Visit Financialsense.com for commentary by many analysts and forecasters.
- [Full Employment or Lack of Low Skilled Workers?](https://execspec.net/unemployment-workers-economy/) - The current prime age (25-54 years old) unemployment level hovers around multi-decade lows of 3% - essentially full employment - while the prime age labor force participation rate is far from its peak - implying less than full employment. Since the female workforce rose to maximum participation rates in the 1990's on the gender equality
- [No China Trade Deal Equals Weaker Stocks and GDP](https://execspec.net/china-trade-tariffs-stocks-gdp/) - The Trump - China trade dispute, peak profit margins and downward earnings growth forecasts will keep stock prices on the defensive in the months ahead. The equity Bull market can be sustained and a recession avoided in 2019, however it will require a resolution on the trade front and likely further US and global economic slowing
- [Where in the World is R* and Phillips Curve Inflation?](https://execspec.net/unemployment-yields-inflation/) - Our October report reviewed the limitations of the Phillips Curve in forecasting inflation as it relates to unemployment. Essentially economists interpretation of Phillips posit that lower unemployment equates to higher inflation. This view was created in the 1970's post Gold/Currency Standard during the inflationary Baby Boom employment surge. Should the overall CPI rise above 4 to 5% or the
- [Need Patience When Stock Market 200 DMA Breaks](https://execspec.net/stocks-market-correction-200dma/) - Our September warning of an October correction lasting until election day November 6th warranted a defensive posture for investors. Looking at the 200 day moving average (dma) of stock indices partially illustrates our subdued current outlook. Half way through the stock markets October plunge we witnessed the break of the vaunted 200 dma of price. Our observation of
- [Negative News Response Syndrome for Stocks?](https://execspec.net/stocks-sp-dow-nflx-msft-amzn-aapl/) - With the heart of the current earnings season for stocks running from October 16th to November 14th, it's early to prognosticate with confidence, but there appears to be a shift in how the market is responding to good and bad news. In 2017 and most of 2018 bad news was harmless and good news was
- [Italian Debt Crisis Could Shrink US Yields](https://execspec.net/italian-debt-crisis-bonds-yields-stocks-sp-dow/) - Debt default contagion fears seem to surface every decade. Rolling debt bubbles in the 1980's from Latin America led to Billions in handouts from the 1st world banking system. The Asian currency default contagion among the Asian tigers was eventually contained in the late 1990's. More recently the more menacing US sub-prime mortgage debt default
- [Stock Market Echoes of 2016 Election](https://execspec.net/stocks-bonds-gold-yields-sp-dow/) - October correction phase will continue until election day and beyond should Trump lose control of Congress to his rivals with echoes of the 2016 election uncertainty saga. On 09-28-18, three days prior to the the record stock market peak on October 3rd, our newsletter warned of an October correction parallel to 2016. The common characteristic
- [Another pre-Election Correction](https://execspec.net/yields-correction-stocks-election/) - On September 28th ( https://execspec.net/stocks-election-oil/ ) we forecasted an October correction with this chart, warning of a parallel to the pre-election pause in October 2016. The uncertainty and contentiousness parallel to 2016 favors sideways to lower stock prices into the November 6th election. A further investment correction scare in November would be likely if Democrats
- [Best Manufacturing Job Growth in 34 Years](https://execspec.net/manufacturing-jobs-economy-gdp/) - Trump's claim of bringing back American manufacturing jobs is boastful with some truth. Since the manufacturing halcyon days of the 1970's, the US Dollar was allowed to depreciate and cheap labor abroad sent US factory jobs into a multi-decade tailspin. Manufacturing output rose, but 8 Million jobs were lost. In his first 20 months Trump has added
- [Will Phillips Curve Revenge Trigger Inflation?](https://execspec.net/stocks-inflation-defaults-jobs-economy/) - Milton Friedman promulgated the Phillips Curve interpretation that posits a tight labor market generates higher inflation. Since 1967 this has been the primary tool of Central Banks and economists in forecasting inflation. During the previous generation it appeared that falling unemployment during an economic recovery would always trigger a strong inflation response. Today's near record
- [Buyer Beware in October](https://execspec.net/stocks-election-oil/) - Often Oil prices and stocks move in the same direction. This is logical longer term when considering an expanding economy is coincidentally good for earnings of stocks as well as the rising demand for Oil to feed a growing economy. While there will be periods of divergent trends, the past year or two has witnessed
- [Anticlimactic Insider Selling](https://execspec.net/stocks-insider-selling-options/) - Recent headlines have talked about heavy insider selling as a clarion call for a Bear Market lower in stocks. While a major stock market correction at these record heights can occur at any time, there is an assumption that record stock buybacks this year are causing extreme Insider Selling, indicative of a stock market top.
- [You Want the Debt? You Can't Handle the Debt!](https://execspec.net/debt-stocks-bull-china/) - David Stockman, former budget director for President Ronald Reagan, says "I think all hell is going to break loose," as the result of the Trump tax cut. Past assertions indicate he expects a 40 to 70% stock market collapse, but no idea when. For Stockman it has always been about debt and that we 'can't
- [Are Investors Tired of Winning?](https://execspec.net/acquisitions-stocks-buybacks/) - Investors, consumers and business owners seem to be winning on all fronts these days. Forecasts estimate 2018 dividends of $500 billion, corporate stock buybacks of over $700 billion and Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) business of $1.3 trillion. This would be an impressive 10% of the value of the S&P 500 Stock Index and over 12%
- [Economic Optimism Peaks Long Before Equities & GDP](https://execspec.net/economy-optimism-stocks-jobs-gdp/) - Recently concern has risen over a pending low in unemployment data among other signs of a major stock market and economic top. While a bit presumptuous to assume unemployment can't go much lower, it's a given that when the economy peaks and heads toward a recession, unemployment will have bottomed and begin to head North. Past
- [Extreme Home Prices, Not a Mortgage Bubble](https://execspec.net/housing-stocks-inflation/) - Toll Brothers stock, one of the largest home builders, is down a whopping 35% from its peak this year as housing prices keep reaching new astronomical heights. The median home price in Tribeca, Manhattan is over $5 Million. Not a problem for Justin Timberlake, but many worry that the wave of Millennials needing homes to start
- [Breadth Supports Stocks, Sentiment Still Neutral](https://execspec.net/breadth-stocks-dow-nasdaq/) - The broad based S&P 500 and Russell Indices are hitting multi-month highs while the tech heavy Nasdaq has been reaching record peaks with regularity this year. Despite the Wall of Worry over China Trade, the Bullish behavior of stocks hitting higher highs and higher lows is becoming obvious to the masses. We don't want to be complacent as
- [Are Trump's Manufacturing Jobs Coming Back to America?](https://execspec.net/manufacturing-jobs-steel-gdp/) - Apple became the first company to surpass the $1 Trillion market cap today, but they have no place in Trump's mantra of "Making America Great Again". Even Apple's sales appear almost immune to tariffs from China or the US. In promising to bring back US Manufacturing jobs, our President's messaging heaps an inordinate focus on Steel as the
- [Economy Still Has FAANGs](https://execspec.net/sentiment-economy-faang-stocks/) - Everyone knows Tech has led the the stock market higher since Trump was elected and 2018 has again demonstrated strong tech leadership. The resplendent tech vanguard is dominated by the $3.3+ Trillion behemoths under the Jim Cramer acronym known as FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google). The tech heavy Nasdaq is up double digits in 2018,
- [Small Bank Risk Spikes: Does it Matter?](https://execspec.net/stocks-banks-risk-defaults/) - Almost a third of Banks are experiencing a spike in consumer credit card defaults to levels associated with recessions. While it could be a canary in the coal mine warning of a crisis rumbling through this strong economy, it may also be an errant spark by the feeble financial sisters supplying credit. With almost two thirds
- [Yield Curve Hysteria](https://execspec.net/yield-curve-hysteria-stocks-inversion/) - Awareness of the yield curve and the dreaded potential for inversion as a harbinger of recession has never been more prominent in the news. Esteemed Federal Reserve members, commercial banking CEO's and economists have acknowledged recently that an inverted yield curve is a powerful indicator of a coming recession. The yield curve measures the spread between
- [Composition Not Compensation Suppressing Wages](https://execspec.net/wages-earnings-demographics/) - We all know intuitively that increasing demand combined with shrinking supply will elevate value. Thus esteemed economists are confounded by the "appearance" of below normal wage growth despite record demand for jobs and fewer workers available. False blame has been thrown at greedy corporations not sharing profits, at slack labor demand, weak productivity, low inflation and
- [Trade War Concerns: Exec Spec's Kurt Kallaus interviewed by Cris Sheridan 6-20-18](https://execspec.net/trade-war-financialsense-interview/) - http://static1.financialsense.com/broadcast/insider/fsn2018-0621-kallaus-h8Gn2mk.mp3
- [China Syndrome: Tech Leads, Industrials Lag](https://execspec.net/china-syndrome-tech-leads-industrials-lag/) - In 2017 virtually all stocks outside of the energy sector moved steadily higher. In 2018 our forecasted corrective period bifurcated the market into Trade War sensitive stocks and those with stellar earnings and immunity to trade retaliation. Essentially tech has been the big winner. One of the big losers has been the the large cap
- [Backlog Logjam Signals Middle Innings](https://execspec.net/backlogs-economy-expansion/) - The Atlanta Fed estimates a whopping 4.7% GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2018 and ISM manufacturing backlogs are near three decade highs. The current order backlog logjam and extreme small business optimism we highlighted last week resemble the record levels of 2004, signifying that we may be in the middle innings of this expansion cycle.
- [Peak Optimism, Not Peak Stocks or Economy](https://execspec.net/stocks-gdp-business-optimism/) - A Bloomberg article recently joined the chorus of stock market naysayers with a specious claim that the current record optimism displayed by Small Business surveys signaled that a market correction was due. Panics can occur almost anytime, but this theory lacks real evidence as have most clarion calls for a Bear market the past several years. Contrarianism has
- [China Trade Deal Countdown](https://execspec.net/china-trade-deal-countdown/) - The stellar 2017 gains in all major stock indices were earnings driven. In 2018 it's news driven. SP 500 earnings grew an excellent 16% in 2017 with a 19% gain in stocks and profits have expanded to an 8 year high of 25% growth in the first quarter of 2018, well above consensus expectations. Stock market valuation
- [China's Tofu Tariff Tantrum](https://execspec.net/china-soybean-tariff/) - As the China Trade War rhetoric in 2018 finally shifts toward intensifying negotiations in late May, the clueless global audience are pawns of tit-for-tat public relations (PR) campaigns by the US and China. The US is demanding the elimination of over half of its $375 Billion trade deficit with China. Such threats are part of the
- [Trump Begins Draining Iranian Swamp as Promised](https://execspec.net/iran-oil-energy-nukes/) - Drain the swamp is a popular Trumpian term these days and can be appropriated for the President's abrogation of the Nuclear Arms "agreement" this week with Iran. The endgame we suspect is a military confrontation that will enfeeble the rogue nation. For now step one is ever tighter sanctions by the US. A military strike
- [Pending Market Boom Held Hostage by Trade War Risk](https://execspec.net/tariff-stock-sentiment-bear-bull/) - The relentless 14 month rally in global stock markets that peaked in January 2018 has been followed by a 13% correction over the past 3 months that will remain static to lower until the trade tantrum on tariffs is resolved. We have seen first hand and globally the torrid pace of rising new order flows
- [Teens Trade Summer Income For Better Future](https://execspec.net/teens-jobs-college-income-economy-gdp/) - There is a significant labor shortage in our country today primarily due to the retiring baby boom generation and compounded by Teens choosing to stay in school longer than ever. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that matching every unemployed person in the Midwest to a job would still leave 180,000 unfilled jobs. In spite of record demand for
- [M&A Cash to Splash Supports Stocks](https://execspec.net/lbo-pe-buyouts/) - In recent quarters we have exposed the hyperbole of doom and gloom evidence, while expecting a first quarter 2018 double digit stock market correction. We have shown that the stock market margin debt ratio is normal, credit card and mortgage default rates are calm, credit spreads, junk bonds, yield curves and inflation risks are well-behaved.
- [March Financial Sense Interview with Kurt Kallaus](https://execspec.net/march-financial-sense-interview-execspec/) - In mid March the Financial Sense media arm of their Wealth Management parent interviewed ExecSpec's Kurt Kallaus about the stock market and economy. Other analysts can be read and heard at https://www.financialsense.com/ http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/insider/fsn2018-0321-kallaus-yPtgSpTE.mp3
- [Trump Feigns Amazon Attack](https://execspec.net/amazon-ecommerce-stock/) - As the Amazon Death Star continues to devour brick and mortar retailers and infiltrate homes of adoring fans from coast to coast, President Trump has taken time from his Trade War threats against China to tweet reminders that he still plans to slow Amazon's ascendance, calling them a "no tax monopoly". Similar to China's unfair
- [The Economic Pause That Refreshes](https://execspec.net/trade-economic-gdp/) - Economic data in the US and abroad slowed in March. We believe this is the pause that refreshes. Manufacturing capacity and supply chain constraints have become too extreme for production to meet demand. Limited labor and material supplies continue to elevate delays in shipments and vendor deliveries. This summary from the 3-28-18 Markit PMI report on
- [Stock Fears Over Margin Debt Hype](https://execspec.net/stocks-margin-debt-mortgage/) - Much like mortgage debt is to home prices, equity investor margin debt is to stock prices. With the Dow rising 25% and hitting new record highs every fourth day on average during 2017, borrowings for stock purchases have been hitting new records in tandem. The Fear of excessive margin debt by stock investors causing a
- [Stocks Dive on Trade War Gamesmanship](https://execspec.net/stocks-trade-war-gamesmanship/) - War, what's it good for, absolutely nothing ! so goes the Motown Vietnam protest song. Investors shouldn't be surprised that Trump is delivering on his promise to threaten Trade Wars to fix what he perceives as unfair trade decimating US business. Trump's modus operandi is anchored in domination and alarm. It worked in business deals, it protected
- [Building Boom Before Infrastructure Bill](https://execspec.net/building-infrastructure-economy/) - The rebuilding of America is underway. Both political parties want an infrastructure spending bill, yet gridlock is likely to prevent the desired $1.5 Trillion Bill ($150 Billion/year) as it requires either massive new deficit spending or higher taxes. A 25 cent Gasoline tax hike to generate $37.5 Billion/year, toll roads and burden shifting to the
- [BLS 95 Million Unemployed BS](https://execspec.net/unemployed-jobs-economy-2018/) - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) states clearly that 95 Million people in the US are not in the labor force! Those who are quite alarmed by this shocking number include: Chief Economist Dan North, CNBC financial reporter Rick Santelli and Peter Boockvar, Chief analyst of the Lindsey Group. Echoing these paragons of credibility is
- [Business Climate Heats Up While Trump Dares Trade War](https://execspec.net/business-pmi-gdp-trump-trade/) - The larger service economy recovered years ago and remains strong, while the manufacturing world has only confirmed exceptional expansion rates over the the past year. The latest ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) test of 61 is impressive and usually occurs in the early to middle innings of a new economic expansion following a recession. With
- [Rally Pause When Earnings Season Ends?](https://execspec.net/rally-correction-earnings-volatility/) - After almost 2 years of poor earnings performance going into the 2016 elections, the S&P 500 Index earnings per share (EPS) has grown strongly in each of the last 5 reporting periods ending March 1st 2018. The current reports indicate that nearly 75% of companies beat both earnings and sales estimates, the highest quarter of
- [Gig Economy is Up](https://execspec.net/gig-economy-labor-employee-millennial/) - Automation and Artifical Intelligence (AI) are spurring an economic and cultural shift toward self employment as demand for traditional jobs are eliminated. Independent contractors and freelance workers (gig jobs) have risen beyond 53 Million workers or 34% of our labor force. Roughly 50% of Millennial workers are already a part of the gig world according to
- [Stocks Like Higher Yields and Lower Volatility](https://execspec.net/stocks-yields-volatility-inflation/) - Stocks fell sharply on inflation concerns in early February, but the speed of the 10% correction and impressive 2,000 point bounce back have left investor psychology and their risk exposure unphased. Bull markets love to climb a wall of worry and Bears slide down a hole of hope. Typically investors are scared to the sidelines,
- [Amazon Shrugs](https://execspec.net/amazon-shrugs/) - The Amazon Death Star is the Atlas of this meteoric 9 year old stock market rally. Stock markets have fallen over 10% in about a week, bewildering investors, while Amazon shrugs. Without serious interruptions, Amazon and other tech titans have increasingly dominated their markets. In spite of large competitors such as Walmart (JD.com), Alibaba, Ebay, Netflix
- [Wage Inflation Panics Stock Market](https://execspec.net/earnings-inflation-panic-stocks/) - In recent months we have been warning that the first deep dive in stocks since Trump's 2016 election would be in the 1st quarter 2018. Once Trump passed the Tax cuts last December we opined that the trigger for this market decline would be Wage inflation and fear of higher interest rates. The strong economy was
- [US Dollar Importance is Fake News](https://execspec.net/us-dollar-importance-fake-news/) - Currencies appreciate and depreciate for many reasons and either extreme isn't necessarily good or bad. Traditional economic theory holds that a cheaper domestic currency relative to other trading partners reduces imports and boosts exports as our widgets become cheaper from the perspective of other countries and inflation pressures rise as imports become more expensive. In
- [Will "Real" Rally Sweeten Sugar](https://execspec.net/brazil-sugar-softs-real/) - Understandably the commodity oriented Brazilian economy has a close connection between its currency and the crops it grows. Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa and to a lesser extent Soybeans and Orange Juice all have some correlation with the Brazilian economy and its currency - the "Real". When commodities in general peaked in 2011, so too did the
- [Oil Soars as Trump Vows to End Iran Nuke Deal](https://execspec.net/2018-oil-peaking-inventory/) - Oil is shooting higher in recent weeks due to inventory draws and threats to Iranian production. In 2016 Trump campaigned against the historic Iranian Nuclear Agreement, but extended approval today, vowing to end the Deal in May unless Europe agrees to tougher terms for Iranian compliance. With Iran producing almost 4 Million barrels a day courtesy
- [Coffee Percolating for 2018 Rally](https://execspec.net/coffee-softs-rally-2018/) - Coffee is a market that spends 80% of its time moving sideways or lower. Thus looking for Bull moves higher entails some risk. Brazilian currency appreciation, La Nina and extreme oversold hedge positions by Money Managers and Large Spec traders all have potential to support a meaningful rally in 2018 above the 130's to 140's consensus. When Oil
- [Great Time to Expand Business](https://execspec.net/great-time-expand-business/) - Since the 2016 elections NFIB surveys of Small Business Optimism have soared, generating the most dramatic jump in expectations on record. With Corporate Tax cut stimulus effects still ahead and restrained capital spending data, it appears there is room for growing euphoria in 2018. Advisor Perspectives (advisorperspectives.com) does a great job presenting financial data, but a look inside
- [Faster Economy, Strong but Slowing Stock Market in 2018](https://execspec.net/economy-pmi-stock-market-2018/) - Impressive Economic Acceleration Our theme for 2018 is for an even stronger economy accompanied by slowing stock market growth as compared to 2017. Much of the slow recovery since 2009 has been on the backs of the consumer without the normal contribution of Investment Spending and Exports. The new expansion cycle we entered in 2016 appears to have sparked
- [Financial Sense and Kurt Kallaus Discuss Yield Curve](https://execspec.net/financial-sense-kurt-kallaus-discuss-yield-curve/) - You can hear us and other analysts at FinancialSense.com and listen to ExpecSpec's Kurt Kallaus talk with Cris Sheridan below about The Yield Curve and other economic factors today. http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/insider/fsn2017-1221-kallaus-cRjCjGSa.mp3
- [A Merrier Christmas Sales Season](https://execspec.net/sales-consumption-jobs/) - Our theme that a new business cycle expansion began in 2016 is easy to see in basic industrial and material sectors we have highlighted in past newsletters. Less obvious is the persistent consumption trends since the 2008/2009 Great Recession. While consumers have been the backbone of most expansion cycles, they have been the only GDP
- [Waiting for the Curve to Invert](https://execspec.net/waiting-curve-invert/) - One of the hallmarks of a Bull market is climbing a "Wall of Worry". Certainly there is plenty of longer term optimism with Consumer and Small Business surveys showing extreme confidence. Yet analysts seem increasingly focused on what might go wrong. In the early days of 2009 - 2012 most were certain that the Trillions in
- [Middle or Late Innings of Economic Expansion?](https://execspec.net/economy-expansion-gdp-yield-curve/) - Each year of this enduring slow growth expansion cycle starting in 2009 has had a growing chorus of doomsayers looking for the next recession. The evidence in forecasting the next economic peak resembles a litany of what if's to justify a visceral conclusion. Rising interest rates or simply the "feeling" that this expansion is just too darn long are
- [Stocks Rally Anticipating Historic Tax Cut](https://execspec.net/stocks-tax-cuts/) - Republicans have been salivating over corporate tax cuts and repatriation of the estimated $2.6 Trillion in cash on US company balance sheets overseas that can't be brought home due to double taxation. Why would Apple repatriate any of its $252 Billion after tax cash hoard, only to have $88 Billion confiscated by US taxes. Instead, US companies borrow here against their overseas cash
- [Consumer is Ready to Keep Consuming](https://execspec.net/consumer-ready-keep-consuming/) - For years we have been hearing chimerical Cassandra calls of consumer calamity. "The consumer is getting tired, debt levels are too high, incomes are rising too slow." Ironically these charts below were used by a Business Insider article today titled: "Americans are having trouble paying off their credit cards — and it could spell trouble for the
- [End of the New Normal GDP](https://execspec.net/economy-gdp-growth/) - Perpetually slow growth has been the ethos of this 8 year recovery cycle. The New Normal mantra coined by PIMCO in 2009 has become ubiquitous in financial circles to distinguish this sluggish expansion cycle from all others. Our lethargic global recovery was a fait accompli for the sins of state sponsored mismanagement during the preceding decades. With
- [Warming Economy, Red Hot Stock Market](https://execspec.net/economy-stock-market-sp-pmi-gdp/) - With 15% gains in the major stock indices (Nasdaq 28%) stocks are on pace for their 4th best year since 1999. Precursors of accelerating economic growth abound in 2017, reflective of the rebounding earnings and future expectations. The stubbornly sluggish US GDP continues to hover near its 2.1% post mortgage bubble 7 year expansion cycle.
- [2017 - The Year Without Corrections - Echoes of 1995](https://execspec.net/correction-volatility-stocks-sp/) - How rare is a year without corrections of more than 3% ? 1995 was the last period of incredibly persistent optimism without a hiccup in price to afford a paltry decline beyond 3%. Most consider a pullback of 5 to 10% to be modest and a normal expectation at least once a year. A 3%
- [Great Expectations - Stocks Markets Breaks 2017 Pattern in Strong Pre-Earnings Rally](https://execspec.net/stocks-rally-earnings-season/) - A persistent theme this year has been stocks surging to record highs during each quarterly earnings cycle. The first three quarters of 2017 earnings have seen a series of 6 week explosions to the upside: February, April/May and July. In fact, removing these three 6 week surges would leave the stock market completely flat for the
- [Trump's October Surprise Supports Oil](https://execspec.net/oil-sanction-iran/) - In mid October President Trump will be required to certify the Iranian Nuclear compliance once again or push to nullify the multi nation Nuclear Arms Treaty. Already the US has presented evidence of an unrelated UN Security Council resolution violation. This resolution has not been accepted by Iran and is insufficient to breach the Treaty. While the UN
- [Investors Ignore Hurricanes, Climb Wall of Worry](https://execspec.net/investors-bonds-junk-yields-stocks/) - Markets love to climb a wall of worry. Kim detonates a nuke or fires an ICBM and stocks fall for a day before heading back to record highs. Two monster hurricanes damage the US economy and stocks fall for a day and then immediately roar back to record highs. Trump fails to pass any stimulative
- [Wall Street Cries Wolf On Stocks - Economy](https://execspec.net/wall-street-stocks-economy/) - There is no question that the stock market is richly valued and the economic expansion since the 2008 mortgage debt panic has endured far longer than normal cycles. Recent pessimism has arisen with major Banks and analysts warning that the sky may start falling soon. (Bloomberg:Wall Street Banks Warn Downturn Is Coming:8-22-2017). Increased negative forecasts can
- [Stock Markets Protest Trump Chaos](https://execspec.net/stock-markets-protest-trump-chaos/) - Stocks essentially move on earnings and fundamental expectations. US stock indices rose sharply into July and early August as forecasted in June due to earnings surprises. Over the past week prices have retreated sharply on major news events. When North Korea threatened to Nuke Guam stocks plunged last week. When they were scared into removing
- [Global Industrial Trends Coalesce](https://execspec.net/industrial-production-gdp-metals/) - The Global Economy began a new expansion phase in 2016 after the Oil market exited a severe 2 year recession. We have highlighted many examples of improving financial risk, new records highs in leading indicators and a rebound in industrial commodities. A good measure of the underlying strength of the goods producing economy is encompassed in the
- [August Top Full of Fire and Fury](https://execspec.net/august-top-stocks-sp-dow/) - As the North Korean threats continue escalating, the US has sent a colloquial response "full of fire and fury the world has never seen" that signaled institutions to take some stock market profits. Some bullies will say anything for attention on the school playground. Bullies seeking importance by announcing preparations to attack with nuclear missiles minutes from the
- [Spending Binge, Household Debt, and Cycle Watchpoints](https://execspec.net/debt-spending-stocks-commodities/) - Click Read More tab or play tab below to hear our July 6, 2017 interview with Cris Sheridan at Financial Sense Network. Read our posts and others and hear more interviews at http://www.financialsense.com/ Kurt Kallaus on Pleasure Boat Spending Binge, Household Debt, and Cycle Watchpoints http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/insider/fsn2017-0706-kallaus-c48t7ny.mp3
- [Luxury Bull Market](https://execspec.net/tourism-cars-bull-market/) - The wall of worry continues to propel stocks higher as this long plodding economic expansion is assumed to be in the later innings. With low interest rates and slow growth, many are still waiting for the the full throated recovery to manifest. However, for the luxury and leisure world the good times just keep rolling.
- [Earnings Driven Stock Market](https://execspec.net/earnings-driven-stock-market/) - The "earnings season" is the period each quarter when the vast majority of corporate earnings are reported. The bulk of the stellar gains in the stock market this year have occurred around earnings season. Alcoa typically kicks it off around the 3rd week at the start of each calendar quarter and 6 to 8 week market rallies
- [Consumers Have Some Nice Assets](https://execspec.net/debt-assets-yields/) - The national debt here and around the world continues to grow inexorably toward the stratosphere, yet households have steadily improved their balance sheets. Household debt to GDP has fallen from almost 100% to just 80% since 2008. Individual assets have risen at a rapid 10% rate that far outpaces consumer debt accumulation. In fact, household debt is
- [Peaking Summer Stock Market](https://execspec.net/2017-stocks-top-oil/) - US and global stocks remain in a secular Bull market. Major averages from around the world confirm the strength we see in our country boosted by strong earnings and guidance. Tech stocks have trounced value companies and sentiment is neutral in spite of the lofty stock valuations, allowing room for more euphoria. There is an
- [Labor Shortage Equals Low Wage Growth?](https://execspec.net/labor-shortages-equal-low-wage-growth/) - More jobs and less available people should portend better pay. Everyone knows that when demand is greater than supply, the cost of the supply will rise until equilibrium is reached. That's certainly the case with housing these days as the record low inventory of homes can't satisfy the demand. As one would expect, housing prices have risen beyond
- [Household Debt: Myth vs Reality](https://execspec.net/debt-economy-stocks/) - Consumer Credit Card default rates have "surged" to 4 year highs. Capital One reported its largest write off since 2011 due to credit card delinquencies. Discover Card loan loss provisions in the 1st quarter 2017 rose a whopping 38% to $586 Million. Sounds like the alarm bells have rung! Myth or Reality? Alarming headlines are
- [A Panoply of Positive Divergences](https://execspec.net/global-stocks-supporting-us-stocks/) - Bull markets in stocks tend to rise in the face of a wall of worry. For years we have been hearing about this overvalued stock market - it's lasted too long, risen too far, printing money will lead to inflation, margin debt is too high... we are mirroring the tech bubble of the 1990's. The
- [Copper, China and Global Recovery](https://execspec.net/copper-meltdown/) - Copper and Oil are important barometers of economic direction. The weather vane for Copper's direction isn't as much supply, but demand. Chinese industrial activity and the commitment of traders are important demand side tells to observe. When Copper surged an impressive 10 cents a pound last week it was blamed on the possible partial strike coming at
- [ExecSpec Interviewed By Financial Sense](https://execspec.net/interview-kallaus-financial-sense/) - Cris Sheridan of the Financial Sense Network interviews Kurt Kallaus on April 26th, 2017 http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/insider/fsn2017-0427-kallaus-dbu7qsq.mp3 We recommend visiting the Financial Sense website to hear and read their many professional contributors. http://www.financialsense.com/
- [Stock Market Expiration Date](https://execspec.net/stock-market-economy-gdp/) - Economic expansions rarely last more than 8 to 10 years without a recession. Stock markets almost always have greater than 20% corrections associated with each recession. However, it's naive to assume expansions and contractions have expiration dates. Looking for the global economy to engage in a classic contraction with spiking unemployment and crashing equity values are typically preceded
- [Improving Global Growth Fails to Alarm Commodity Prices](https://execspec.net/gdp-pmi-gold-oil-copper-commodities/) - Since Oil prices bottomed out at $26 in early 2016 the Global economy has bounced and continued to establish solid footing with increased optimism. There is a palpable euphoria in recent months that has been absent for over a decade. Wages and input costs are rising, boosting European and US core inflation data above 1%
- [Softer Hard Data Weighs on Stocks](https://execspec.net/hard-data-stocks-bonds-yields/) - Hard data is soft! Retail sales have contracted 2 months in a row, construction spending and industrial production data are soft and other hard data inputs have pressured economic models sharply lower in their 1st quarter GDP estimates. When the economic outlook is soft, interest rates along with stocks earning forecasts decline. Until March the vast majority
- [Legislation Consolidation In Stocks](https://execspec.net/healthcare-economy-stocks/) - The primary US stock market yardstick, the SP 500 Index rallied 17% into March 1st from the spike low on election day. In almost 5 months of stellar gains the market has yet to experience more than a 2% correction on a closing basis and 3% intraday. Until March our advise has been to avoid
- [From Weak To Strong In One Year](https://execspec.net/economy-global-gdp/) - From worst to first in one year! The economic surprise index was already trending higher in the US and around the Globe last Fall and Trump's timing was impeccable as current and expected business activity surged since his election. The Citi Economic Surprise Index falls when real activity is worse than expected and conversely becomes more positive when
- [Trump Transition Logjam Stalls Stocks](https://execspec.net/trump-stocks-newsletter/) - The surprise Trump victory November 8th catapulted stock indices about 15% higher as of March without even a 2% intraday correction. Our advise since December has been to avoid waiting for dips and stay 95% invested basis the SP 500 (SPY) and keep buying as strong corrections were unlikely with so many investors frozen on the
- [Saudi Arabia's Grand Illusion](https://execspec.net/oil-glut-production-energy/) - The House of Saud was successful last November in its year long quest to raise world Oil prices. After a few failed attempts to form a coalition of the willing, Saudi Arabia spent 6 months increasing output to unsustainable levels as part of a grand illusion. With the help of close allies they pretended to cut
- [Reality Catching Up With Expectations](https://execspec.net/stocks-sentiment-economy-gdp/) - The stock market is a major leading indicator that rallies on optimism in the economy. Stocks represent the sum progress of companies in the present with a premium for what is expected in the future. Often these economic expectations mirror stock prices, but eventually the stock market leans ahead of its skis requiring commensurate "realized"
- [Premature Celebration Of Philly Fed Data](https://execspec.net/philly-fed-economy-gdp/) - Over the past 6 months there has been a steady drumbeat of ever stronger economic data from multiple sources, domestic and foreign. This weeks report of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey attained a whole new level of impressive and conjures hope for 'Yuge' economic expansion. While the monthly readings can be very erratic, we have
- [Copper Strikes](https://execspec.net/copper-strikes-out/) - Will 2017 be the year of labor strikes in copper? When has the news for copper ever been more Bullish? Consumption expectations are rising and supply projections are falling! Is it time to Sell? Demand for copper is growing faster with renewed global growth, forecasted Trumpian economic incentives along with more Chinese usage. A strike
- [Too Many Bears](https://execspec.net/too-many-bears/) - According to Investors Intelligence survey of Newsletter writers, optimism is surging into the upper echelon of the most positive outlooks over the past 40+ years. With Bullish opinions testing 63% of those reviewed, we are already up against record levels typical of the start or the end of a Bull market in stocks. This data
- [Financial Sense Interview January 26th, 2017](https://execspec.net/3671-2/) - Click play to hear Chris Sheridan of Financial Sense interview Kurt Kallaus, author of Exec Spec We encourage you to listen to other premium interviews at the Financial Sense web site as well as read the free newsletters from other analysts. http://www.financialsense.com/subscribe
- [Let The Moon Be Your Guide](https://execspec.net/let-the-moon-be-your-guide/) - Let the moon be your guide is lunacy! Right? Perhaps, but once in a while we enjoy a cursory examination of the odd correlation with lunar peaks and human valuation of various commodities. Full and New Moons occur when the Sun, Moon and Earth are in alignment and exert extra gravitational pull. These spring tides
- [Bearish Sentiment Pushes Dow Above 20K](https://execspec.net/bearish-sentiment-pushes-dow-above-20k/) - Over the past 6 weeks we have repeatedly discussed that excessive "Bearish sentiment" in the marketplace favored a move above the psychological barrier of Dow 20,000 prior to any meaningful correction that "allowed" investors to climb on board the Trump Train. On December 15th we said "Most investors are hoping for at least a 4
- [Too Many Bond Bears](https://execspec.net/too-many-bond-bears/) - When its obvious, it's obviously wrong! Is there any forecaster, economist or investment house that doesn't think interest rates are going higher? Trump's victory and hyper business cheer leading has accelerated a rush to sell bonds due to the certainty over rising economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve finally hiked rates on December 14th 2016
- [Higher Interest Rates Good For Stocks](https://execspec.net/interest-rates-bonds-stocks-profits/) - Until 1981 interest rates had risen for 4 decades and since then yields are in their 4th decade of decline and ironically rates are back near 2% where they began in the 1940's. Rising interest rates pump fear through the veins of stock market forecasters and wealth managers, but do rising bond yields really indicate
- [Trump Tweets - Peso Plunges](https://execspec.net/trump-tweets-peso-dollar/) - Trump tweets of taxes at the southern border and the Peso plunges. Mexico has abundant petroleum, cheap labor and a preeminent location for global companies to reach the largest consumption market in the world. Yet they struggle with slow growth and massive corruption. To add insult to their injurious system, Mexico's worst nightmare has now been
- [Productivity Growth Ahead](https://execspec.net/economy-productivity-stocks/) - The past 8 years have witnessed one of the worst trends in labor productivity of the past century. Human productivity inexorably rises over time as we learn from our losses and invest with innovative management and capital investments to increase labor efficiency and profits. Productivity naturally falls as an economy moves towards contraction as sales fall
- [Hope and Change Gets Trumped](https://execspec.net/trump-bull-market-stocks-futures/) - Respected media icons, economists, hedge fund managers and self aggrandized pundits have long predicted an immediate stock market crash and recession upon the astronomically remote odds of a Trump Presidency. Shark Tank's Mark Cuban and the vociferous majority were correct --- for a couple hours! However, the silent smart money and bulge investors quickly stepped
- [Recount 2016 Is Mini-Me Of 2000](https://execspec.net/recount-2016-is-mini-me-of-2000/) - The dreaded recount has begun in this "mini-me" version of the 2000 Bush v Gore election. In 2000 there were merely hundreds of votes in one state deciding the election. Complicated by unclear ballots and court battles, it took 5 weeks to resolve leaving a divided electorate having to accept ambiguous results that remain to this day. An
- [Higher Rates? Bank On It](https://execspec.net/yields-rates-banks-gdp/) - The confidence of a "big league" fiscal stimulus by President Trump in 2017 has sent shock-waves through our financial markets and seismic shifts in the political landscape around the world tilting Trump. Trepidation remains, but the rhetoric has turned from radioactive to magnetic as the populist nerve captured by Trump is being mirrored in France
- [Sentiment Oversold Just Before Election](https://execspec.net/sentiment-oversold-just-before-election/) - In August we shared this chart indicating that the overbought sentiment condition of option traders meant that prices were due for a correction. The heavy Call option buying was a sign that sideline cash for purchasing stock was used up and pessimistic put buying extremes would be typical prior to a new leg up in
- [Financial Sense interview Nov. 9, 2016](https://execspec.net/interview-nov-9-2016/)
- [Commodity Index As Leading Economic Indicator](https://execspec.net/commodity-index-leading-economic-indicator/) - Within 15 years the western world entitlement tsunami enlarged by aging demographics should swamp the global economy during a deeper than normal cyclical contraction, but the tea leaves guiding current economic cycles can be simplified by focusing upon raw commodity prices. Prosperity and growth will generally stagnate or contract as long as commodity prices are in secular deflation reflecting an
- [Too Many Tired Bulls](https://execspec.net/bulls-stocks-bonds-economy/) - When US stocks broke to new record highs in July we began to see excessive optimism creeping into the indices. In August and September we warned that a top was forming and lower prices into October were likely. We would extend that corrective phase into November-December given the continued Call option speculation by investors. https://execspec.net/oil-stocks-bonds-sentiment-yield/ A modest
- [Sterling Pounds Stocks - Peso Rallies For Hillary](https://execspec.net/pound-stocks-brexit-oil/) - Brexit Part 2 Sends Stocks Plunging Stocks are breaking sharply lower today on the next installment of Brexit panic with renewed depreciation in the British Pound to record lows. Major Bulge banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have been expecting and hedging in anticipation of a 115 to 120 value for the British currency. There is
- [KDelta Futures Ag Trades Coming](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-oil-sugar-wheat-trades/) - Presidential election campaign news continues to be a major factor influencing both capital spending decisions in the economy and commodity markets in general. Stocks, Peso and Oil markets in particular are being boosted by the status quo stability weighting of a Clinton victory. This is not an endorsement, merely a market reaction to the declining risk of the
- [Peso and Oil Fear Trump's Wall](https://execspec.net/peso-oil-trump/) - Trump's nationalistic rhetoric has sent chills through many markets. Fear of trade wars focused on China and Mexico have caused Selling in the Peso and Oil as Trump popularity rises and renewed Buying as Trump fades. Markets fear uncertainty and while Trump supporters are far more enthusiastic than Hillary's, his "burn it down" campaign style
- [Fed Admits It Has No Clue](https://execspec.net/fed-clueless-qe-economy/) - Hold the presses: Bond Bear Market has been averted! Today's Non-Decision on the Federal Funds Rate was a surprise only to the intractable 12% of myopic analysts who want the Fed to get out of the business of printing dollars regardless of economic risk. The most interesting comment by Fed Chair Janet Yellen was her admission that
- [KDelta Awaits Fed Indecision Day](https://execspec.net/kdelta-natural-gas-currency/) - K DELTA Futures: Stocks, bonds and currencies are the obvious markets directly affected by the words of Janet Yellen's Federal Reserve, but virtually all markets can be pushed around as an army of investors interpret and reinterpret the Fed's intentions Wednesday. It's a silly game with almost no major impact, but it's the biggest game
- [KDelta Sweetens The Pot Ahead of Fed "Announcement"](https://execspec.net/kdelta-sugar-stocks-dollar-bonds/) - K DELTA Futures: Sugar moved closer to our upside target and our profit stops are rising as well in a trade due to peak soon. A Natural Gas Buy signal is possible in the next couple of weeks, but momentum is already overbought. The Canadian $ is near a Sell subject to the whims of
- [KDelta Sugar Rush Locks In Profit](https://execspec.net/kdelta-sugar-oil-currency-profit/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system The US $ is touching first resistance allowing Oil and most commodities to firm. Sugar triggered a KDelta Buy Stop Friday and almost surged to reach its Limit Sell order target before pulling back. We will lock in a profit stop here and see if a quick retest
- [Financials Falter On Weaker Global Economic Forecast](https://execspec.net/financials-invest-forecast-oil-stocks/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Stocks collapsed last Friday upon indications by Fed governors that a Fed rate hike in September was imminent. Stocks surged on Monday as other Fed governors implied a rate hike on September 21st was unwarranted. Tuesday stocks (& Bonds) are selling off sharply on Oil industry forecasts of
- [Fear Factor Sends Oil, Stocks and Bonds Lower](https://execspec.net/oil-stocks-bonds-sentiment-yield/) - Fear of Federal Funds rate increases have sent stocks and bonds lower. The US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen continues to assert that the decision to start raising interest rates again will be dependent upon stronger economic data. However, most of her regional bank President Board members hint that incoming data is irrelevant and higher
- [Bond Sell Propels KDelta Futures Model To New Highs](https://execspec.net/bond-sell-kdelta-futures-model-oj-buy/) - Wage data in last week’s jobs report was weak along with this week’s slowing in ISM/PMI Services and Manufacturing reports. Almost 80% surveyed don’t expect a September rate hike. With softer data also coming out of Europe it would defy logic and the guidelines of the Fed if they were to in fact raise rates
- [KDelta Profits Rise: Key Jobs Report Friday](https://execspec.net/kdelta-profits-stocks-jobs-system/) - Professional opinions continue to be very conflicted about a September and or yearend central bank fed funds rate hike. The majority rule out a higher rate at the September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting 9/20. A strong wage report this Friday would greatly enhance the odds of a 25 basis point rise at the
- [KDelta Sell Signals Triggered By Hawkish Fed Comments](https://execspec.net/kdelta-commodities-futures-sell-bonds/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 08-28-16 While never clear, The Federal Reserve Chair on Friday was “interpreted” to say the odds of a Fed Funds Rate hike in September &/or before year end had increased. The take away is that any key data points – especially wage inflation – that hint of
- [Higher Wages Equal Fed Rate Hike](https://execspec.net/wages-fed-rate-hike-forecast-stocks/) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave her much anticipated comments on the potential for coming Federal Funds rate hikes. As usual the speech was subject to intense forensic interpretation. At first the conclusion was Dovish - no chance for a September rate hike. Upon further review, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and other Fed Board members muddied
- [Buybacks Tank: Will Stocks Follow?](https://execspec.net/buybacks-repurchase-stocks-bull-bear/) - Our recent reports have worried about "short term" stock market froth in August as indicated by option trader sentiment showing relatively heavy Call buying. The additional anxiety over the contrasting US presidential candidates may also send investors and business deals to the sidelines making the fear of lower stocks and a weaker economy a reality,
- [KDelta Yen & Kiwi Strengthening](https://execspec.net/kdelta-yen-newzealand-sp500/) - K DELTA Futures 2016: Stock indices have churned for over 6 days with very high Call option buying suggesting higher risk near term. It’s possible for this topping phase to edge sideways to higher for another week or two or the current correction may deepen first. Despite our 2016 SP targets near 2250, we would
- [Financial Sense interview Aug. 16, 2016](https://execspec.net/financial-sense-interview-aug-16-2016/)
- [Stocks Churn As Earnings & Election Anxiety Grows](https://execspec.net/stocks-earnings-election-wheat-oil/) - The economy remains weak, earnings are poised to continue contacting for a 6th quarter in a row yet stocks have broken out to new record highs in August from an important technical base. Without a strong rebound in earnings we have a price-earnings multiple expansion stretching the faith of many investors. Option trader optimism basis
- [HS Model Cushions Gains With Cotton](https://execspec.net/hs-model-cushion-profits-cotton-wheat/) - Futures Portfolio = +269% Profit on Closed Trades New signals are awaiting reversals to enter, but Cotton continues to cushion this year profits with over $3,300 gains per contract or 170% profit over invested margin since the entry 6 days ago. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pending trade set-ups awaiting overbought or oversold momentum to Sell or Buy are
- [KDelta Futures Have A Yen For New Highs](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-yen-treasury-highs/) - KDelta profit YTD=$27,757=284%: YTD = 40 wins & 29 losses = 58% winning trades Corn and Wheat as well as all Treasury maturities are coiling for breakout moves over the next week or so. Steady gains continue despite being stopped out of the Peso and KC Wheat this week. Both of these commodities still look favorable to an
- [Oil Headwinds Become Tailwinds](https://execspec.net/oil-prices-stock-market-rally/) - Oil prices rising from $26 to $46 a barrel this year have helped boost US stocks a whopping 22% from their lows. The digital age led by Amazon and over capacity of retail space per capita may be killing retail bricks and mortar, but the dirty old energy driven industrial economy still holds some sway
- [Aussie Spike Sends KDelta Profits To New Highs](https://execspec.net/aussie-kdelta-profits-highs/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 08-10-16 KDelta profit YTD=$27,757=278%: YTD = 39 wins & 27 losses = 59% winning trades Despite a modest loss in Copper our KDelta model continues to new highs due to our recommended Aussie trade exited today. As always Entry, Exits and Stops are shared prior to trade signals allowing anyone
- [Cotton Reverses As HS Model Gains](https://execspec.net/cotton-reverses-hs-model-gains/) - HS: Hedger Portfolio 2016 08-10-16 Futures Portfolio = +272% Profit on Closed Trades Cotton reversed on a dime after large upside gains in a spike top. Our KDelta model exited near the highs, but the longer term slower moving HS model still captured large profits and we had the extra benefit of advising a short
- [Stocks Slide On Oil Slick While Cotton Makes Hard Landing](https://execspec.net/stocks-oil-slick-cotton-bear/) - 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 08-10-16 The stock indices steep ascent to record highs has paused over the past few weeks as expected due to the overbought sentiment readings we have highlighted. Oil prices continue linked to stocks as well, as we have often written about. On up days in Oil prices stocks surge while
- [Economic Rebound Needs Oil & Copper Inflation](https://execspec.net/economy-oil-copper-inflation/) - Our recent report on The Tale of Two Economies (https://execspec.net/economy-industrial-consumer/) concluded with the need to watch for clues from Oil and Copper markets as early harbingers of economic change. Capital expenditure for structures and equipment have contracted for 3 straight quarters for the first time since the Great recession of 2007-2009. Exports have not grown
- [HS Locks In Hot Heating Oil](https://execspec.net/hs-locks-in-hot-heating-oil/) - HS: Hedger Portfolio 2016 08-04-16 Futures Portfolio = +238% Profit on Closed Trades Our large Heating Oil short could have exited even lower, but momentum is turning up and we will exit at the Limit 12956 or at the pre-existing Buy Stop @ 13100. Pending trade set-ups awaiting overbought or oversold momentum to Sell or
- [KDelta Futures Model Breakouts Pending](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-model-breakouts-pending/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 08-03-16 KDelta net profit YTD=$25,580=256%: YTD = 37 wins & 26 losses = 59% winning trades (using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance, no compounding) Open positions Entry Exit Stop (Loss)/Profit Exit 0 Pending Signals: entries using Buy or Sell Stops only (GTC or good until canceled): Entry Price
- [Stock Market Overbought - BAL Bucks Trend](https://execspec.net/stock-market-overbought-bal-bucks-trend/) - Exec – Spec 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 08-04-16 We took profits in AMTD and CAT this week as we continue shifting to our core commodity focus using stock ETF’s and keeping exposure light during this short term overbought window. Our cotton position, BAL is holding 12 to 15% gains with potential for one last
- [Tale Of Two Economies: Industrial vs Consumer](https://execspec.net/economy-industrial-consumer/) - Good or Bad Economy? Is the economy strong or weak? The safe answer is - both. GDP and median income growth have remained weak, but employment and consumer spending are healthy. Manufacturing and construction hiring and wage gains have been anemic while leisure, health care and business services have been energized. Since the real estate crash bottomed in 2008 we have witnessed
- [HS Diversified Model Adding To Gains](https://execspec.net/hs-diversified-model-adding-to-gains/) - HS: Hedger Portfolio 2016 07-26-16 Futures Portfolio = +238% Profit on Closed Trades While we remain biased lower in Gold and Silver we may have missed the lower risk entry for now. Copper is Bullish on the Weekly and Monthly, but looking for the Daily either above or below current prices to Buy. Wheat is
- [Deflation Price Trends Good For KDelta, Bad For Economy](https://execspec.net/deflation-price-trends-good-for-kdelta-bad-for-economy/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 07-25-16 The Dollar Buy has a locked in profit, but is retracing more than ideal after just missing the upside target. Oil has broken lower reaching the original downside Sell signal target that was stopped out prematurely. Now Oil is quickly approaching strong short term oversold levels
- [New Highs Due After A Pause](https://execspec.net/new-highs-due-after-a-pause/) - Exec – Spec 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 07-24-16 Gradually, longer term commodity ETF’s and stock positons are setting up for new trades while we watch the growing overbought that increase the odds of short term corrections. We still have higher price objectives in the SP, DOW and Nasdaq this summer before a more serious
- [KDelta Locked Out of Bullish Stock Index Projection](https://execspec.net/kdelta-traders-commodities-bullish-stocks/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 07-15-16 The major blue chip indices of the SP 500 and DJIA have easily surged to new highs after a year of consolidation. Our KDelta breakout model indicated a bullish breakout that we declined to report as it’s designed for a futures contract and given the length
- [Pound Replaces Oil As Leading Indicator](https://execspec.net/pound-replaces-oil-as-leading-indicator/) - While Crude Oil price movements have been a sensitive leading indicator to economic conditions and financial markets since late 2014, the British Pound collapse has now become a leading indication for many commodities since the June 23rd UK referendum and THE metric to watch until this currency stabilizes. With the Pound depreciating rapidly we present several
- [KDelta Futures Heating Up With Oil](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-heating-oil-coffee/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 07-07-16 Coffee stopped us out while grinding sideways along with Cotton as we await new signals. Crude Oil has now moved to the Sell side. While unofficial, Heating Oil is also Short. The New Zealand $ is poised to break higher, even though that would not be
- [HS Model Grain Gains Before Rains](https://execspec.net/hs-model-grain-gains-before-rains/) - HS: Hedger Portfolio 2016 07-07-16 Futures Portfolio = +184% Profit on Closed Trades ETF Portfolio = +66.5% Profit on Closed Trades (Assumes 100% exposure, but no compounding) Recent gains in the HS portfolio resulted from exiting 3 month old positions in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. These were partially offset by an early entry into shorting
- [Nat Gas Powers KDelta Stocks Higher](https://execspec.net/natural-gas-stocks-higher/) - Exec – Spec 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 07-07-16 2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = +0.6% vs SP 500 Index = 2.9% Estimated 2% gains as of open on 7-8-16 Stocks continue to be poised for new record highs should the British Pound stop depreciating and begin a confidence boosting rally back toward 140. Further
- [Palladium Propels KDelta Futures Portfolio Forward](https://execspec.net/palladium-propels-kdelta-futures-portfolio-forward/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 06-30-16 KDelta scans over 30 commodity futures markets for short term breakouts. Our Palladium Buy signal this week had more risk than some trades due to its thin trading volume and notorious price volatility in overnight action. Prices quickly surpassed our primary high confidence target at $594. Investors should have exited with
- [Rule By Referendum Thwarts Orwellian Globalization](https://execspec.net/orwell-currency-stocks-bonds/) - The Empire Strikes Back Orwellian trends toward creating bulge governing bodies such as Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia have run into a Brexit wall of conservatism. For decades a new world order toward federalism and globalized governance has metastasized. Fears of terrorism and socialist regulatory oversight over private decision making has galvanized conservatives. In Austria and
- [Brexit Fears Send KDelta Bond Trades Soaring: 236% YTD](https://execspec.net/brexit-fears-send-kdelta-bond-trades-soaring/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 06-16-16 KDelta profit YTD=$23,603=236% YTD = 32 wins & 20 losses = 62% winning trades {As always our trades are easy to replicate with Entry, Stops and Exit prices outlined well ahead of time} Markets around the world are still being ping-ponged by Brexit anxiety and a constant barrage of
- [Brexit Polls Dominate: Should I Stay Or Should I Go?](https://execspec.net/brexit-polls-dominate-stocks-gold-dollar/) - Until recently one could be forgiven for not knowing what Brexit stands for. It may sound like a version of Britain's famous Wheetabix cereal, but actually translates seamlessly from financial geek speak to "British Exit" from the European Union (EU). Brexit has now moved beyond financial circles and into the political and social discourse. If the UK left the EU there
- [Millennials Need To Grow Up And Get A Job](https://execspec.net/millennials-need-grow-up-get-job/) - Millennials are not lazy, but actually represent a very innovative and connected cloud oriented phase of our new world order. According to the data they are needed in our thinly skilled labor pool, but more and more they have chosen to swim elsewhere. Unemployment has fallen to just 4.7% and our Central Bankers perceive inflation inducing full employment is at our doorstep. The Federal Reserve
- [KDelta Futures Model Up 190% With Strong June Start](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-model-up-190-with-strong-june-start/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 06-08-16 KDelta profit YTD=$19,017=190%: YTD = 30 wins & 20 losses = 60% winning trades Yesterday we closed out our Wheat trade (symbol ZWN) that should have been easy for readers to catch on a live basis. Despite well-known fundamentals of a massive wheat surplus, prices went to our high
- [Hedger Portfolio Locking In Large Open Profits](https://execspec.net/hedger-portfolio-locking-in-large-open-profits/) - HS Hedger Portfolio 2016 06-08-16 = +129% Profit on Closed Trades Our Wheat trade has pushed higher basis HS & KDelta Models. With the Dollar fall supporting a rebound in the Yen and ag prices our open unrealized open profits are growing. US economy appears to be in a slow recovery mode that may not be
- [Breakout Trades Fill KDelta Stock Portfolio](https://execspec.net/breakout-trades-fill-kdelta-stock-portfolio/) - Exec – Spec 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 06-07-16 2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = +0.65% vs SP 500 Index = +5.58% We have been calling for stocks to rally toward record highs into mid-June. Stocks continue to rally and our heavy exposure is a risk for short term corrections. It’s encouraging short term that
- [June Rate Hike and Brexit "Unlikely"](https://execspec.net/june-rate-hike-and-brexit-unlikely/) - June's Big News Events The 2 major questions generating volatile price speculation are: (1) When Will The Fed Hike Rates? A Fed rate hike had been given only a 29% odds of occurring last week, despite a very clear messaging campaign by multiple Fed officials that they were very anxious to raise interest rates ASAP. The Fed seems willing to
- [KDelta Triggers More Buys as SP Probes a Breakout](https://execspec.net/kdelta-triggers-more-buys-as-sp-probes-a-breakout/) - Exec – Spec 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 06-02-16 2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = +0.72% vs SP 500 Index = +5.20% SP 500 benchmark is testing its June futures contract highs although still well short of its record cash peak almost a year ago. Bullish sentiment from the past 2 weeks has now reversed
- [HS Long Term Model up 131% in 2016](https://execspec.net/hs-long-term-model-up-131-in-2016/) - HS Hedger Portfolio 2016 06-02-16 = +131% Profit on Closed Trades HS model shows overbought extremes in precious metals, Yen, Canadian, Soybeans and Crude Oil. Copper and Wheat are at oversold levels. These markets are vulnerable to the many news events coming regarding the direction of economic activity and Fed Funds rate hike decision in
- [KDelta Futures Up 180%](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-up-180/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 06-02-16 Stock and Bond Indices are hinting of upside breakouts soon. While short term option sentiment implies the stock market should correct prior to a strong upside move, we do forecast a decisive move this summer above the one year trading range that has been building energy. While higher
- [The Case For $50 Oil Solved](https://execspec.net/the-case-for-50-oil-solved/) - Oil has almost doubled in price over the past 4 months, so the Oil glut must be over?! Of course not, the glut remains. A supply glut or shortage is not required for prices to rise and fall and certainly it can be misleading for proper timing of your investments. Our Bearish forecast in the
- [Oversold Sentiment  Pushes Stock Market Toward 6 Month Highs](https://execspec.net/oversold-sentiment-pushes-stock-market-toward-6-month-highs/) - Exec – Spec 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 05-26-16 While the May 19th low ended the sharpest correction in the general stock market since February it was only 4% intraday, basis the SP 500 benchmark. However, option sentiment and AAII metrics were the most oversold in months. AAII reached one of the most oversold buy
- [Gold Rush Losing Glitter](https://execspec.net/gold-rush-losing-glitter/) - Smart Money Shifts to Gold With Billionaires George Soros, Stanley Drukenmiller, Paul Singer and what seems like every analyst on the planet talking up Gold, what can go wrong? In fact it's impressive that the alleged "Smart Money" has also surged into Gold ETF's (exchange-traded funds holding Gold assets). Looking back over 7 years there is an impressive
- [KDelta Stock Portfolio Adds Long Term Signals](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stock-portfolio-adds-long-term-signals/) - Exec – Spec 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 05-23-16 2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = +0.72% vs SP 500 Index = +2.35% New elements added will include the more successful longer term commodity ETF stocks. This addition will allow the HS futures model to be utilized partially in a normal stock market portfolio. This will
- [KDelta Uses Natural Gas to Reach 197% Gains](https://execspec.net/kdelta-uses-natural-gas-to-reach-197-gains/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 05-19-16 KDelta profit YTD=$19,705=197%: YTD = 29 wins & 16 losses = 64% winning trades (using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance, no compounding) KDelta breakout signals for futures traders can generate short term signals. Today witnessed a series of hard breaks and V shaped reversals as many of
- [HS Model +130%](https://execspec.net/hs-model-130/) - HS Hedger Portfolio 2016 05-18-16 = +131% Profit on Closed Trades HS is a longer term contrary opinion investment model using a diversified portfolio. Profitable trade duration average = ~ 7 weeks {vs KDelta model trades average about 2 days} Pending Trades Entry
- [KDelta Loaded for Selling](https://execspec.net/kdelta-loaded-for-selling/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 05-18-16 KDelta profit YTD=$19,009=190%: YTD = 27 wins & 15 losses = 64% winning trades (using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance, no compounding) While stock market sentiment is approaching medium term oversold, there has not been a deep correction since January. KDelta is close to Sell signals in
- [Durable Good and Bad](https://execspec.net/durable-good-and-bad/) - Another Tale of Two Worlds Our personal background expertise is exposed to the materials sector of manufacturing. We produce the tools and heavy duty machines for many industries all over the globe. In our parochial servicing of global demand we continue to see a recession tinged slowing of demand. Shrinking profit margins and rising employee terminations in our customer segments are signs that
- [Yen: Getting Harder To Ease](https://execspec.net/yen-getting-harder-to-ease/) - Japan Desperately Wants to Ease If you want the bank to hold your money in Japan, it will cost you. In fact any bond an investor buys up to a 10 year duration carries a negative interest rate. Japan has been the most aggressive first world country on the planet printing currency out of thin air as they engage
- [HS Model Up 106% in 2016 With Ags Surging](https://execspec.net/hs-model-up-106-in-2016-with-ags-surging/) - Note: No updates until April 28th, if needed. The healthy 106% gross profits in 2016 are actually understating the growth in gains this year as Open Trades have locked in considerable profits this month. Agricultural trades have led the way. Our job ignores which sectors will be strongest and focuses in upon where the professional
- [KDelta Stock Portfolio Up For 2016 & Adding ETF's](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stock-portfolio-up-for-2016-adding-etfs/) - Note: We will not have updates until 04-28-16 if needed. Our Sallie Mae SLM trade was almost perfect. Tight trading range with a huge gap up to within 2 ticks of our target. But we attained only an 8% intraday gain on the trade, not the 8.1% targeted before intraday prices collapsed right back into
- [KDelta Futures Portfolio Up 183% With Quiet Period Ahead](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-portfolio-up-183-with-quiet-period-ahead/) - We will not be able to update if needed until April 27th! Our KDelta portfolio has strong gains for 2016 to date, but we don't see setups for new signals over the next couple of weeks so far other than potential signals in the Pound and the US Dollar. K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading
- [Sentiment Has Bottomed](https://execspec.net/sentiment-has-bottomed/) - Recession Watch? Sentiment has bottomed? With the Small Business job creating engine of America plunging right back into the abyss of a recession mentality, it's a bold forecast to claim that economic sentiment for the US is about to turn higher. Let's just say 2015 was the year the Energy recession took its toll on
- [Junk Bonds Confirm New Highs In Stocks](https://execspec.net/junk-bonds-confirm-new-highs-in-stocks/) - Last week we noted the often accurate Sell warning given by the negative divergence of High Yield "Junk" Bonds vs the stock market. Stocks did quickly plunge a few hundred points on the Dow into early April as the Oil price rally stalled. Since then Oil has resumed its assault on new highs with a $7/barrel surge leading
- [Hedger Portfolio +87%: Currency Profits Locked In](https://execspec.net/hedger-portfolio-87-currency-profits-locked-in/) - This is the first time the HS model has been shared on Exec Spec. Tracking has been continuous since the 1980's and is being shared at this time for premium members. HS Hedger Portfolio 2016 04-13-16 = +87% Profit HS is a longer term contrary opinion hedge investment model using a diversified portfolio. Profitable trade
- [KDelta Futures: Oil Leads Most Commodity Prices Higher](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-oil-leads-most-commodity-prices-higher/) - Commitment of Trader reports indicate metals and energy commodities are nearing tops on a monthly basis. K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 04-19-16 KDelta profit YTD=$16,814=168%: YTD = 24 wins & 14 losses = 63% winning trades (using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance, no compounding) Open positions [wlmprivate "Annually|Bi-Annually|Monthly|Free Trial"] Entry Exit Stop (Loss)/Profit
- [KDelta Stock Portfolio Update: Oil Inflation Leading Stocks Higher](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stock-portfolio-update-oil-inflation-leading-stocks-higher/) - 2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = +0.84% vs SP 500 Index = +2.96%% Junk Bond divergence Sell indication a few weeks ago provided a nice 2% market correction, but with Oil back above $40 the negative divergence was erased - supporting higher stock values. Rising Oil continues to be the key for rising stocks. With the extremely predictable failure of Doha OPEc meeting
- [Why Oil May Hit $50 This Summer](https://execspec.net/oil-glut-energy-stocks/) - {Read this article on FinancialSence.com as well as past articles & interviews: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/kurt-kallaus and hear our February interview discussion of Oil & other topics...just before its final bottom: http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/kurt-kallaus/manufacturing-oil-stocks } Oil Output Will Continue Decline Throughout 2016 US and Canadian Oil production rose at a parabolic rate for 4 years ending in June 2015. While Canadian supplies may have
- [Economic Leading Indicator: Oil](https://execspec.net/economy-gdp-profits-stock-market/) - Industrial Production on Verge of Recession History warns that recent metrics foretell of an economic recession, yet we think this time is different. When looking at Corporate GAAP Earnings, Global trade volumes, Weekly Leading Indicators and Industrial Production data we might normally warn that our economy is near recession territory. In such a case you would need to be mostly in
- [KDelta Stocks Ready to Trigger Despite Need for Pause](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stocks-ready-to-trigger-despite-need-for-pause/) - 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 03-29-16 Strong stock market Buy signals from January and February remain valid, yet modest overbought conditions are growing short term. Fed Chair Yellen sent stocks higher today as she removed any doubt that rate hikes were imminent. Yellen countered Hawks on her Board insisting rates would not rise before the economic data
- [KDelta Futures +178% After Quiet March](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-profit-april-178/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 04-05-16 Commodity review: - Our long Soybean Oil trade came within 3 ticks of our target exit picked almost 4 weeks ago. Higher prices beyond our "first" target seem likely with near term risk near 3316. However, we seek to exit in the lower left hand corner
- [Stock Market Surge Ready For Pause](https://execspec.net/stock-market-surge-ready-for-pause/) - Buy Signals in Need of a Break Within a couple days of the spike lows in stocks on January 20th and February 11th after testing 15% correction lows in the SP 500 Index and 20% in the Nasdaq, we published updates indicating extreme oversold signals. Some of these Buy signal readings have never failed to indicate
- [KDelta Futures Trading Model Update: Profit 174%](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-trading-model-update-profit-174/) - KDelta profit YTD=$17,379=174%: YTD = 22 wins & 10 losses = 69% winning trades ***{Please note there will be no new updates until the week of March 24th. If you are following the current Gold trade we will not be able to provide updates. We advise exiting or keeping a very tight trailing stop while the trade is
- [KDelta Stock Trading Model Update](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stock-trading-model-update/) - Exec – Spec 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 03-04-16 2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = +0.96% vs SP 500 Index = -(1.7%) Our 3 week trade in Panera Bread (PNRA) closed out yesterday as instructed for a 7.5% gain [wlmprivate "Annually|Bi-Annually|Monthly|Free Trial"] *We will refrain from listing new trades for the next 2 weeks while
- [Copper  Breaks Out](https://execspec.net/copper-breaks-out/) - Commodities Bottoming On January 28th in our "Copper-Bottom" report we said "copper should continue a modest rally near term from the $1.90's to perhaps the $2.20's". In the chart below you can view an upward biased trading range since that report as Copper broke sharply higher this week into the $2.20's. That would be a $2,500
- [Oil Glut Thickens](https://execspec.net/oil-glut-thickens/) - Oil & Gasoline Inventories Still Surging The bad news for the economy and industrial sector is the growing oil glut. The good news is there is a strong seasonality where we expect inventories to peak in the March - May time frame and decline into the July - September period. Prices tend to rise in anticipation of Oil refinery
- [China Desires Fixed Free Market](https://execspec.net/china-desires-fixed-free-market/) - 5 Year Plan China craves respect. In order to join the esteemed high income Western democracies it has to open its financial borders, float its currency and allow business the freedom to succeed and fail. China's thirteenth 5 Year Plan is due to be revealed formally this month to achieve these and many other specific objectives such as clean energy, urbanization,
- [KDelta Futures](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 02-25-16 The Yen rally reversed the past 2 days sending stocks higher during a period when oversold sentiment readings allow for sharp upside moves. However, watch the Yen (J6H16) > 9017 resistance , at which point US stocks should be selling off sharply due to carry trade investment flows. KDelta profit YTD=$17,744=177%: YTD = 21
- [KDelta Stock Trading Model](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stock-trading-model-2/) - 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 02-24-16 2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = +0.6% vs SP 500 Index = -(5.2%) [wlmprivate "Annually|Bi-Annually|Monthly|Free Trial"] Each position= 5% portfolio unless specified Pending trade order (Buy Stops entries unless specified) [table id=4 /] [table id=1 /] [table id=3 /] {Results 2014=+10%; 2015=-1% vs SP 500 Index –(1%)}[/wlmprivate] Disclaimer
- [Systemic Risk or Compartmentalized Recession](https://execspec.net/boj-ecb-negative-interest-rates-recession-oil/) - Global economic fears and the proliferation of stock Bear markets have grown in recent months. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has joined the negative interest rate club to combat a deflationary debt implosion as the deliberation of the year has become clear: Are we experiencing an isolated energy driven recession or systemic risk of a global recession and
- [KDelta Stocks Trading Model](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stocks-trading-model/) - Exec – Spec 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 02-15-16 2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = +0.7% vs SP 500 Index = -(8.8%) Stocks have bounced sharply in one day along with Oil and sentiment oversold readings hint this rally in stocks is warranted. Each position= 5% portfolio unless specified Pending trade order (Buy Stops entries
- [KDelta Futures Trading Model](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-trading-model-3/) - Markets are quiet with small trade potential in the British Pound and New Zealand $ currently. K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 02-15-16 KDelta profit YTD=$17,675=177%: YTD = 20 wins & 8 losses = 71% winning trades (no compounding using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance) Open positions: Entry Exit Stop (Loss)/profit -0- Pending Signal
- [KDelta Futures Portfolio](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-portfolio/) - The Federal Reserve and price moves in Oil have triggered an unusually active trading environment. By failing to take interest rate hikes off the table in Congressional testimony today the Fed has triggered a surge in the Yen and Bond prices and sent yields plunging along with the stock market upon fears of a weakening economy threatened by a lack of
- [KDelta Futures Trading Model](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-trading-model-2/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 02-08-16 KDelta profit YTD=$14,869=149%: YTD = 17 wins & 8 losses = 68% winning trades (no compounding using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance) Commodity deflation risk continues to escalate as Oil hovers near decade lows at $30 while negative economic surprise indices and credit spreads weaken. Treasury prices
- [KDelta Stock Trading Model](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stock-trading-model/) - 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 02-08-16 2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = +0.7% vs SP 500 Index = -(10%) After sentiment readings gave strong Buy indications on January 20th after the March SP reversed from 1804, we expected a modest rebound followed by a retest of the January lows or new lows by late February
- [KDelta 2016 Futures Model](https://execspec.net/kdelta-2016-futures-model/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 02-05-16 KDelta profit YTD=$13,844=138%: YTD = 15 wins & 8 losses = 65% winning trades (no compounding using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance) Open positions: Entry Exit Stop (Loss)/profit 02-05-16 Sell NKH 16630 16440 16625 Pending Signal entries using Buy or Sell Stops only (GTC
- [KDelta Model Stock Market Update](https://execspec.net/kdelta-model-stock-market-update/) - Exec – Spec 2016 KDELTA Stocks portfolio update 02-05-16 2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = 0% vs SP 500 Index = -(8%) In an environment where stocks have been in a correction in the US and globally since last July and after significant price corrections in January we have either been in cash or buying
- [KDelta Futures Trading Model](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-trading-model/) - K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system Updated 02-01-16 KDelta profit YTD=$8,988 with no compounding using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance. YTD =9 wins & 6 losses (Italic=New trades/changes since last free update) Open positions: Entry Exit Stop (Loss)/profit 01-26-16 Sell CTH 6114 5945 6190 01-29-16 Buy ZFH 120-15.50 120-26.50 120-13.50 01-29-16 Buy ZNH 129-09
- [KDelta Short Term Stock Market Model](https://execspec.net/kdelta-short-term-stock-market-model/) - Exec – Spec KDelta stock trading model update: Since the end of July 2015 we have refrained from KDelta Stock updates, preferring active shorter term investors remain in 100% in the safety of cash during what we perceived to be a high risk time for the stock market. Our return was zero in January vs
- [Copper-Bottom](https://execspec.net/copper-currency-bottom/) - Dr Copper's Negative Prognosis The best cure for low prices is --- lower prices. A strong Dollar, declining demand growth rates in China amidst a demographic deceleration in the Western world have kept Copper and most commodities in a long term tailspin. It's rare that commodities experience such protracted Bear market while the world economy
- [Stock Market: It's All About That Bass No Treble](https://execspec.net/stock-market-base-no-treble/) - How Goes Oil, So Goes the Stock Market Since North American petroleum production spawned an Oil Bear market in 2014, energy prices have had a commanding influence on stock prices. As US Stock prices repeatedly retested their previous highs last July and again in late December 2015, we witnessed an extreme negative divergence with Oil prices signaling trouble for
- [China and Oil's Rational Dissipation](https://execspec.net/china-oil-debt-credit-panic/) - Demographic Reality Hits China debt bubble, Oil junk credit crunch, commodity & emerging market depression, Russian brinkmanship and terrorism are the top themes for 2016. Only an exogenous event spiking Oil prices and 2nd quarter seasonality are likely to temporarily extinguish these negative themes continuing in 2016. Like the obesity epidemic warping our waste-lines, the primary anchor dragging the world down is gluttony.
- [Fact or Fiction: Saudi Arabia Caused Oil Prices to Collapse](https://execspec.net/fact-or-fiction-saudi-arabia-caused-oil-prices-to-collapse/) - {Alert: Long term stock market investors should have raised more cash this week as stocks crossed under their December lows today at Dow 17,116 & SP 500 Index at 1993. Stock market exposure was reduced from 90% to 85% as discussed in our 12/15/15 report (https://execspec.net/bad-news-2-gas-futures-trading-profits/) Traders have been 100% in cash since August. A
- [KDelta Churns Lower: Fed Raises Rates](https://execspec.net/kdelta-fed-stocks-rates/) - Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen and her FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate today by a quarter point as we and 80% of all analysts foretold. With the last economic data point of a strong labor market out of the way in early December there was virtually nothing that was going to stop this rate hike
- [Bad News: $2 Gas Is Back and Fed Will Hike Rates](https://execspec.net/bad-news-2-gas-futures-trading-profits/) - Why is $2 Gas Bad? If you're driving across the country for the Holidays you will definitely save money as gasoline prices are nearing 7 year lows. However, cheap gas and falling commodity prices everywhere are symptomatic of the global economic weakness pervading our future expectations and cautious consumers are saving this windfall as shown by the
- [KDelta Profits Reach New Heights While Hedge Funds Struggle](https://execspec.net/kdelta-profits-reach-new-heights-while-hedge-funds-struggle/) - KDelta profit YTD= = $76,895 Professionally managed hedge funds have performed dismally in 2014 and 2015 as they fail to adapt investment strategies during the deflation wave we often talk about. Since May Zinc is 37% lower, Oil prices are 45% lower, food crops are trading near multi-year lows and money managers have vastly underestimated
- [Supply Side Recession vs Demand Side Expansion](https://execspec.net/supply-side-recession-demand-expansion/) - Deceptively Strong Economy Some analysts continue to warn of a deteriorating US and global economy with more "negative" interest rates ahead. German 2 year Government Bonds have had a negative interest rate for most of the past 6 months, but yields are not just being artificially suppressed by the $Trillions in Central Bank debt buying, but also due to
- [Junk Bonds Stall Stock Market Run to New Highs](https://execspec.net/junk-bonds-stock-market-highs/) - Fear Fades One of the Buy signal indicators shown in our late August report displayed the CNN Fear & Greed Index. ( https://execspec.net/oversold-extremes-october-low-china-stocks-oil/ ) From late August through September the Fear gage fell to an extreme reading after a 16% stock market correction - the 2nd largest price decline since this Bull market began in 2009. We noted that
- [Junk Bonds Clutter Road for Stocks](https://execspec.net/junk-bonds-yield-forecast-futures-oil-stocks/) - The stock market Buy signals in late August and late September were quite strong. Despite that strength we pointed out we expected the typical bottoming pattern to allow a serious secondary bottom in October. As it turned out that final low arrived a couple days early on September 29th. The recommended investment posture for long term
- [Godzilla El Nino to Bring Record Rain and Heat](https://execspec.net/grains-soybeans-corn-el-nino-record-rain-heat-crop-prices/) - ....and now for the weather: While El Nino weather conditions may be less consequential to the stock market or the economy as a whole, we present here a fundamental forecast discussion along with some technical analysis that may factor into crop prices and energy markets over the next year. Lower crop prices this fall and
- [KDelta Catches Gold](https://execspec.net/kdelta-catches-gold/) - Economic global stagnation and commodity deflation remain in place. There are signs of strong underlying labor forces propelling the service sector higher despite the capacity excess weighing down the industrial sector and inflation. This sideways action in the price of most commodities has caused a higher than normal frequency of false breakouts in our KDelta
- [Heavy Metal](https://execspec.net/metal-deflation-gold-copper-economy/) - Gold Naturally Gold and precious metals have floundered the past year due to surplus Oil, accelerating commodity deflation and Chinese manufacturing weakness. Gold is 40% cheaper than 4 years ago. With rising middle eastern military conflicts, surging Chinese Gold reserve demand and the strongest seasonal 3 month period of the year one might have expected a strong demand led surge, yet Gold remains
- [KDelta: Coiling Markets Piling Up New Trade Setups](https://execspec.net/kdelta-coiling-markets-piling-up-new-trade-setups/) - Recent weeks have witnessed a near record number of commodities coiling sideways building up energy before potentially bursting out into new trends. The past 2 weeks have generated an unusual 5 losing signals in a row of false breakouts before the winning Coffee trade today. Patience has always paid off during these periods of market
- [KDelta Marking Time in Trendless Commodities](https://execspec.net/kdelta-marking-time-in-trendless-commodities/) - The markets are trendless since the Fed began speaking out of both sides of its mouth. They want to raise rates as soon as possible and state the US economy is strong, yet they saw too much economic weakness abroad. Global slowing led by China continues to pressure most commodity markets lower, despite good service
- [The Case for an October Low Revisited](https://execspec.net/the-case-for-an-october-low-revisited/) - Just a few days after the flash crash panic low of August 24th after a 14% correction (intraday) we published "An Oversold Market and the Case for an October Low". It should have made an impact upon readers displaying the extreme nature of the oversold condition and presented a graphic pattern forecast of how stocks
- [KDelta Gains on Nat Gas Fall as Commodity Deflation Continues](https://execspec.net/kdelta-gains-on-nat-gas-fall-as-commodity-deflation-continues/) - K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system Updated 09-23-15 KDelta profit YTD = 677% Gain or $67,749 for 2015: YTD = 66 wins & 30 losses 69% winning trades with no compounding using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance. (Italic=New trades/changes since last free update) Open positions: Entry Exit Stop (Loss)/profit 09-22-15 Sell KCZ
- [KDelta: Free Signals Deliver Huge Verifiable Profits](https://execspec.net/kdelta-free-signals-deliver-huge-verifiable-profits/) - 666% Profit? When anyone claims >100% gains in a year it requires leverage and some healthy skepticism. 666% sounds chimerical and should not be trusted without due diligence. The SP 500 Index is down 6.2% and the average professionally managed Hedge Fund has a negative 1% return in 2015. We refrain from wild claims and
- [Fed Locked and Loaded for Rate Hike](https://execspec.net/fed-locked-and-loaded-for-rate-hike/) - Lock and Load, Disengage Safety and Prepare to Commence Firing! According to the recent Wall Street Journal survey, economists don't think the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin the long anticipated rate hike trend in September, however all the economic data they will gather to make their decision has now been collected as of the favorable September 4th
- [Oversold Extremes and the Case for an October Low](https://execspec.net/oversold-extremes-october-low-china-stocks-oil/) - Is this a bottom and what do buying opportunities look like after a quick panic? Oversold Extreme Indications: This is as oversold as it gets basis sentiment. Just before the market plunged almost 10% intraday over the past week we were already pointing out to readers that oversold conditions were appearing despite the very normal
- [Capitulation in Stocks and Oil Generate New Wave of KDelta Profits](https://execspec.net/capitulation-in-stocks-and-oil-generate-new-wave-of-kdelta-profits/) - KDelta cares not about global chaos and panic. This breakout model identifies about 100 trades a year covering all commodities catching sudden breaks of pivotal price support or resistance. This week we took large profits from Selling ES/SP Stock Index contracts and Selling energy through Shorts on Heating Oil. Gains this month are almost $11,000 utilizing single
- [US Stocks: Waiting for the Fed](https://execspec.net/us-stocks-waiting-for-the-fed/) - Stock valuations change primarily upon future expectations. The US Stock market has traded sideways all year waiting for clarity on future trends with the US Central Bank (Fed) assumed to be the weather vain. Earnings and GDP growth have slowed, the US Dollar peaked in March, Oil prices have fallen to 6 year lows and Chinese weakness has put a
- [Oil Gets Slammed: Will $2 Gas and Cheap Flights Return?](https://execspec.net/oil-gets-slammed-will-2-gas-and-cheap-flights-return/) - For those of you on the West coast, my sincerest apologies! The rest of us are paying not only much lower income taxes and fees but a dollar less per gallon at the pump. Our St Louis stations are now back under $2.50 a gallon and rural parts near $2.20, while the lowest areas in
- [KDelta Racks Up Gains Selling Gold/Oil/Aussie](https://execspec.net/kdelta-racks-up-gains-selling-goldoilaussie/) - Our breakout model recorded near record activity with 18 signals covering 13 separate commodities in July. The plethora of sell signals, even though short term, bolster our long held fundamental perspective of a disinflationary or deflationary decade. Quite possibly we are in a 3rd leg down of a broad based commodity down cycle since 2011
- [Fear of Fed Rate Hike Tarnishes Gold while Dollar Shines](https://execspec.net/fear-of-fed-rate-hike-tarnishes-gold-while-dollar-shines/) - The secretive Chinese have been assumed to be major purchasers of Gold as they diversify large Dollar heavy trade surpluses. The previous report from 6 years ago was expected to at least double and perhaps quadruple their hoard as of 2015. Instead their growth was disheartening for Gold Bugs with only a 60% increase. This may have been the "trigger" for
- [Energy Losses are KDelta's Gains](https://execspec.net/energy-losses-are-kdeltas-gains/) - KDelta is our shorter term commodity futures trading model covering over 30 different futures markets. While our work had preemptive Sell Buy and Stops for easy tracking of forecasts/signals, our biggest gains this past week have benefited from the slides in Crude Oil, the Australian Dollar, Gold and Soybean Oil. This was a fairly diverse
- [Stock Market In Need Of "Greece"](https://execspec.net/stock-market-in-need-of-greece/) - Greece is about the economic size of Connecticut (GDP) at close to $250 Billion: about a third of a percent of the Global economy. So why has the world been fixated upon its fate? Why have stock markets around the world fallen 5% over a potential debt default? Contagion! Greece is not a risk if it
- [KDelta Selling Aussie On $ Strength](https://execspec.net/kdelta-selling-aussie-on-strength/) - A slowing global economy and the recent Nuclear deal with Iran have pushed energy and metals prices lower and the US Dollar higher. With Australia being a commodity driven continent and adversely affected by our Dollar it's understandable why the Aussie $ continues to fall. Our technical KDelta model has been generating repeated Sells as the Aussie
- [KDelta System Gains Despite Losses From Greek News Events](https://execspec.net/kdelta-system-gains-despite-losses-from-greek-news-events/) - Greece may "be the word", but the news items continue to confound. It's hard to take leaders at their word or those reporting. Greek leaders say they will resign if they don't get a vote rejecting Euro austerity demands. With a clear voting mandate rejecting austerity Greek leaders promptly turn around and accept austerity. Then
- [Signs to Watch for a Major Peak in Stocks and Impending Bear Market](https://execspec.net/signs-to-watch-for-a-major-peak-in-stocks-and-impending-bear-market/) - Signs to Watch for a Major Peak in Stocks and Impending Bear Market (Update) CRIS SHERIDAN 07/07/2015 Update: Given the market's slight breakdown this month, two of the three technical red flags for a possible top in the market have been raised. See updated chart and commentary below... It is said that an image is worth
- [China Chicanery Causes Chaos](https://execspec.net/china-chicanery-causes-chaos/) - Economic comparisons of economic data and stock values in most first world countries appear rational. Expectations of marginal economic growth rates and earnings in general correlate well with stock prices longer term. China is one of the exceptions that conjures assumptions of major manipulation. Chinese leaders have been gradually moving toward free markets and an
- [Grecian Formula Prevents Contagion Risk](https://execspec.net/grecian-formula-prevents-contagion-risk/) - Syriza, Tsipras and Varoufakis are leading the Greek Government using their Grecian Formula expertise in Modern Game Theory. Their election promise has been to keep Greeks from paying their taxes and to secure massive haircuts on the debts owed to European creditors. European leaders have repeatedly claimed the Greeks have miscalculated their strategic decision
- [KDelta Model +399% in 2015 Despite Greek Volatility Losses](https://execspec.net/kdelta-model-399-in-2015-despite-greek-volatility-losses/) - What A Mess! Can we just have a little closure here? Years of teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, endless negotiations and reports of deals that are continually denied days or hours later. Even fans of Greece are ready for bad or awful as long as there is finality. Friday June 26th we hear there
- [Lunar Market Madness: Theirs Is Not To Reason Why](https://execspec.net/lunar-market-madness-theirs-is-not-to-reason-why/) - "Theirs not to reason why, theirs but to do and die": said Lord Tennyson in The Charge of the Light Brigade. Having some fun with Lunar cycles: mine is not to reason why but to enlighten - do or die. Today we revisited a simple and often silly concept of Lunar Moon phases correlating with various market
- [KDelta Surges On Currency Moves As Fed Cools Interest Rate Fears](https://execspec.net/kdelta-surges-on-currency-moves-as-fed-cools-interest-rate-fears/) - With our KDelta model surging higher at a record pace this year averaging almost 10 trades per month, recent profits have centered around volatility related to interest rates. Currencies have been the big winners in the portfolio although metals, energies and rate futures have also been active. KDelta is a technical model that averages over 70% winning trades
- [Yen Trend Is Your Friend](https://execspec.net/yen-trend-is-your-friend/) - Yen Devalued 40% ! Exec Spec Yen Shorts Gain>100%. Technical analysis works, sometimes with surprising precision! Desperate to guarantee economic growth, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has used the US Bernanke playbook to engage in massive Quantitative Easing (QE) over the past 3 years. This money creation monetary stimulus has sent their fiat
- [KDelta Profits From Yen Depreciation](https://execspec.net/kdelta-profits-from-yen-depreciation-2/) - K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system Our Good Until Canceled (GTC) Sell stops on the Japanese Yen were finally reached in May and very quickly the Yen depreciated massively down to the aggressive GTC Exit targets we stated readers. The 2 week trade generated 109% profits per margin dollar invested. This trade apparently had
- [Economy Laboring With Strong Job Demand](https://execspec.net/economy-laboring-with-strong-job-demand/) - It's easy to be a pessimist after 6 years of an economic recovery where the majority are still trying to recover from the 2008 recession. Net job creation and wage growth since 2008 have been historically weak. However, we remain more upbeat as auto sales continue to push toward record levels, job creation since the labor market low in 2010 has
- [KDelta Commodity Futures Trading Model Update: +318%](https://execspec.net/kdelta-commodity-futures-trading-model-update-318/) - K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system Updated 05-29-15 KDelta profit YTD=$31,801 = 318% for 2015 YTD 68% winning trades (Italics=New trades/changes since last update) Open positions: Entry Exit Stop (Loss/profit) 05-26-15 Sell J6M 8199 Exit 7950 Stop 8199 05-29-15 Buy ZNM 128-05 Sell @ Market (it may reach our 128-22 target, but we will
- [Yen Depreciates and Stocks Threaten Another Breakout](https://execspec.net/yen-depreciates-and-stocks-threaten-another-breakout/) - Stair stepping higher! The Nasdaq and all US stock indices have been mired in a trading range in recent months that has confounded Bulls and kept many investors and forecasters either on the sidelines or calling for a summer correction. We would like to join the correction camp, but the potential for another leg up with
- [KDelta Stock Model: Trading Range Continues](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stock-model-trading-range-continues/) - Exec – Spec We have been clouded on our short term outlook with an upward bias near term and corrective bias medium term. The chart patterns in 2015 have reflected this muddled upward bias with breakouts to new record high prices in February – which failed. New records again were attained in April – which
- [KDelta Profits From Yen Depreciation](https://execspec.net/kdelta-profits-from-yen-depreciation/) - K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system Updated 05-26-15 KDelta profit YTD=$31,264 or 313% for 2015 YTD 67% winning trades KDelta's hypothetical trading model, which can be followed on a live updated basis, is on pace for a record year with a strong (yet average for KDelta) winning trade %. We have discussed the odds
- [KDelta  Profits In 2015 301%, Boosted By Falling Copper](https://execspec.net/kdelta-profit-in-2015-292-copper-gains-stocks-soybeans-yen/) - KDelta has a long record of consistency. New trades shorting Soybeans and the Yen while Buying Stock Index futures are doing well thus far. These trades can be followed using the GTC Good Until Canceled Stops and Exit we show. Trades are identified well ahead of actual entries and results from our reports are updated below. K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures
- [Corporate Cash Piles Up](https://execspec.net/corporate-repurchasing-stock-record-2015/) - Clinton Cash? How About Corporate Cash? During the 6 year recovery from the Great Recession of 2008/2009 US stocks have tripled during an abnormally slow US and Global economic recovery. US GDP during the recovery phases in the 1980's and 1990's averaged over 4% rates of growth. Even during the aborted Bush era recovery the
- [KDelta Futures Model At +293%: Cocoa enter & exit today for 36%](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-model-at-293-cocoa-enter-exit-today-for-36/) - K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system Updated 05-11-15 KDelta profit =$29,282 = 293% for 2015 YTD 67% winning trades Open positions have cleared as of today as the Cocoa trade we identified last week in our report exited today at 3010 for a $420 per contract profit or a 36% return on invested margin.
- [KDelta Profits Surge 38% on Swiss, Oil and Interest Rate Rise](https://execspec.net/kdelta-profits-surge-38-on-swiss-oil-and-interest-rate-rise/) - K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system Updated 05-06-15 KDelta profit =$29,340 = +293% for 2015 YTD 67% winning trades Our KDelta model is having a great year despite a losing streak from early March to early April. Yet profits are surging with 67% of trades winning. OIL: today we closed out our upside trade in Oil
- [Economy: Not Too Hot, Maybe A Little Cold](https://execspec.net/economy-not-too-hot-maybe-a-little-cold/) - Stocks reading to break! Last week our report was titled: Markets Waiting for Bad 1st Quarter GDP The consensus pegged the 1st quarter (qtr') economic growth (GDP) estimate at 1.3%, which we hinted was a weak number, but not weak enough. It was clear that the rising dollar, contracting energy sector and CA port strike
- [KDelta Futures Profit Surges To 255% With Bonds, Swiss Franc and Oil](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-profit-surges-to-255-with-bonds-swiss-franc-and-oil/) - K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system Updated 04-30-15 (members & trial users entitled to timely tracking upon request!) KDelta profit =$25,459 = +255% for 2015 YTD 63% winning trades Open positions: 04-29-15 Buy QMM 5885 Exit 6030 Crude Oil breaks higher toward seasonal May top 04-29-15 Buy S6M 10580 Exit 10805 Swiss Franc
- [KDelta Stocks Update 4-28-15](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stocks-update-4-28-15/) - Exec – Spec Yesterday we pointed out the lack of follow through in market indices with an indicator note stating: “ADRO chart we often show that requires an immediate rise in prices to avoid short term sell signals”. Again the immediate rally Monday to a new high failed and at this point the ADRO has
- [Markets Waiting For Bad 1st Quarter GDP](https://execspec.net/markets-waiting-for-bad-1st-quarter-gdp/) - Multi-month sideways trends in currencies, oil, stock indices and many commodity markets is destined to continue for another couple days as we await Wednesday (29th) for 1st quarter GDP results. Consensus for the US 1st quarter GDP was at 3% growth as of 2 months ago. Now the mean estimate is for just 1.3% - and falling. The
- [China Gives Green Light To Sell](https://execspec.net/china-gives-green-light-to-sell/) - After a frenzied rally of almost 30% in Chinese stocks this past month and 50% over the past year, Chinese regulators have again taken charge to deflate a rapidly filling balloon. China is quite sensitive to asset bubbles and balancing risk and reward. They will clamp down on unregulated credit financing through shadow banks in the corporate world, yet
- [KDelta Stock Model](https://execspec.net/kdelta-stock-model/) - Exec – Spec [wlmprivate "Annually|Bi-Annually|Monthly|Free Trial"] A pair of 9 to 10 week trading ranges is tough to get excited about. Technically the charts and skepticism are building for an upside breakout. If a burst of energy carries prices easily into new highs over the next month it may be a last hurrah for a
- [Bull Market Likely to Run Another 2-3 Years](https://execspec.net/bull-market-likely-to-run-another-2-3-years/) - (to Play audio click the Full Format or snippet options below) Cris Sheridan of Financial Sense welcomes Kurt Kallaus, author of Exec Spec advisory newsletter and the KDelta trading model for stocks and all commodity futures. Kurt doesn’t believe the U.S. is on the verge of a recession and also gives his outlook on stocks, the
- [No, We Are Not There Yet](https://execspec.net/no-we-are-not-there-yet/) - As per the last Exec Spec report 04-07-15 “Are We There Yet” we confirmed Buy side short term signals with the June SP at 2067.75. In the hourly charts sent out Friday April 10th we targeted 2095 – 2101 June SP by early Monday morning. It turns out at 9:15 AM Monday morning the June
- [Natural Gas On Empty, While Dollar Crushes Ags](https://execspec.net/natural-gas-on-empty-while-dollar-crushes-ags/) - K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system Updated 04-13-15 KDelta 2015 profit =$21,651 = 216.5% for 2015 YTD: 62% winning trades Active trades: Natural Gas & Soybean Meal Natural Gas (May) prices should bottom in 2015. The price of Natural Gas has been depressed for over 6 years by excess supply and increasingly efficient means of low
- [Are We There Yet? Stock Market Rollercoaster](https://execspec.net/are-we-there-yet-stock-market-rollercoaster/) - Stock market whipsaws seem never ending in these very common small trading rage markets of uncertainty. Key "short term support" at 2030 remains our pivot to Sell, but for now the inside trading range momentum is shifting higher. This brief update shares a couple of the MarketHarmonics.com charts with our view they have shifted to
- [Range Bound: What Metals and Currencies Foretell](https://execspec.net/range-bound-what-metals-and-currencies-foretell/) - Clearly the investment world is unclear about the next market direction as virtually all commodities have been contained inside sideways price ranges for months wondering if the past deflation trends will persist versus the long awaited launch of US Fed credit tightening. US Dollar Peaking? The US Dollar had been on a rampage higher since
- [Surprise! US Economy & Interest Rates Ready To Rally](https://execspec.net/surprise-us-economy-interest-rates-ready-to-rally/) - Over the past 4 months the US stock market is essentially unchanged while economic data has deteriorated. Forward earnings, retail sales, service and manufacturing indices weakened and the energy sector accelerated its contraction. While the 1st quarter GDP will show further slowing of US economic data, let's blame it on the weather and get ready for renewed growth in the
- [Yellen About Stocks](https://execspec.net/yellin-about-stocks/) - Federal reserve Chair Janet Yellen keeps hitting the sweet spot communicating to the stock market that she wants to stay supportive as long as possible. Recent statements that the economy is weakening short term but getting stronger underneath is the soothing message that when rates rise the economy will be able to live without the
- [Interest Rates Surge and Stocks Tank](https://execspec.net/interest-rates-surge-stocks-tank/) - Interest rates on the benchmark 10 Year Treasury Note have risen from 1.9% the other week to 2.25% today. On the surface that appears to be little cause for alarm since rates were peaking above 3% just over a year ago and remain historically VERY low. However, today rates jumped sharply on the sudden realization that
- [Long Dollar & Short Euro: KDelta Update](https://execspec.net/long-dollar-short-euro-kdelta-update/) - K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system Updated 03-05-15 KDelta profit =$24,825 = 248% for 2015 YTD: 80% Trade signal accuracy Open positions: 02-12-15 Buy NQH 4342.5 Exit 4487 02-13-15 Buy ESH 2089 Exit 2153 Pending Signal using Buy or Sell Stops only: Sell J6H 8281 Exit 8135 Sell J6H 8218 Exit 7927 Buy A6H
- [Investors Have A Yen For Stocks](https://execspec.net/investors-yen-stocks/) - The US Bull market in stocks is alive although not entirely well. Heavy investment holdings by long term investors remain warranted, yet various measures of valuation combined with declining earnings and margin debt are warnings signs to be vigilant for in 2015. Shorter term indicators we often highlight here have been muted or neutral thus
- [Greeks Cave, Yellen Speaks, Stocks Hit Record Highs](https://execspec.net/greeks-cave-yellen-speaks-stocks-hit-record-highs/) - Stock markets around the world are reaching record highs upon the news that Greece will stay in the Eurozone and avoid contagion risk. Fed Chair Yellen also pushed stocks higher on the perception she remains Dovish - delaying the long expected rate hike trend. Should we beware of Greeks bearing gifts? Greece agreed last week to
- [Weather Report at Dow 18,000](https://execspec.net/weather-report-dow-18000/) - With the Dow testing record prices over 18,000 and new records Friday in the SP 500, Nasdaq, S&P Mid-Caps and the Russell 2000 indexes along with new records in European indexes it looks like a great time to be heavily exposed to US stocks. {Exec Spec remains 90% Stocks, zero fixed income}. With renewed optimism
- [Greeks Don't Need Austerity, Just More Ouzo & Drachmas](https://execspec.net/greeks-dont-need-austerity-just-ouzo-drachmas/) - Seven years into an economic Depression and the Greeks are demanding a change? Go figure! After their economy crashed in 2008 the Greeks have been living upon the kindness of strangers - with strings attached of course. The European Central Bank (ECB) has given the Greeks Billions in new debt to prevent banking defaults in
- [Bad Breadth Signals Drop In Stocks](https://execspec.net/bad-breadth-signals-drop-stocks/) - Last week we highlighted a negative change in our short to medium term perspective discussing the earnings momentum shift that historically coincides with significant stock market corrections. Today we are including charts with a shorter perspective that we were looking at last week that add weight to the current downside reversal that is part of
- [KDelta Futures Model up 81% in 2015](https://execspec.net/futures/) - K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system Updated 01-23-15 KDelta profit =+81% for 2015 YTD 2014 single contracts per signal=$49,937 which = +500% on a $10,000 account starting value There have been 7 trades closed out in January to date. Here is a the result of a recent signal shared with readers before the trade
- [Oil Plunges, Europe Steps On The Gas As Earnings Downshift](https://execspec.net/oil-plunges-europe-steps-gas-earnings-downshift/) - Oil prices have now fallen as much in % as did stocks back in the 2008 mortgage meltdown (57%). There is a terror war idling some Iraqi Oil production, Libya is in civil war with Oil refineries burning and US Oil rigs are seeing their biggest reduction since 2008 when Oil crashed from $145 to $33
- [Swiss Franc Goes Airborne](https://execspec.net/swiss-franc-goes-airborne/) - The Swiss franc has caught some air after years of being pegged to the Euro currency and a bastion of stability. As the Swiss currency was dragged lower by the plunging Euro to multi-year lows this month, the Swiss central bank stopped defending the Euro/Swiss link and allowed its currency to rise from a 4 and a half year
- [Lower Oil & Rates in 2014 Continues in 2015](https://execspec.net/lower-oil-rates-in-2014-continues-in-2015/) - In late 2013 throughout 2014 we have been contrarian stating that a longer term rise in interest rates above 3% in the 10 year Treasury was unlikely and that rates should keep falling. In sync with this call our forecast for all Oil rallies over $100 to be sold over the same period has logically coincided
- [Energy Deflation Boosts Exec Spec Profits to $49,937](https://execspec.net/energy-deflation-boosts-exec-spec-profits-49937/) - Our Exec Spec KDelta Futures Trading Model continued its 2014 appreciation with a year end surge courtesy of the continued collapse in Oil prices. See our 2014 results below of ~250% on a conservative $20,000 account. Our 30+ year use of this model has stood the test of time we believe due to its focus
- [Cheap Credit & Disinflation=Stronger Job Market](https://execspec.net/cheap-credit-disinflation-stronger-job-market/) - For at least 4 years the consensus of top analysts have called for the bursting of the Bond Bubble. Translation: Bond prices had risen so far and yields so low that such extreme levels of investment in Bonds in an of itself would cause a speculative collapse in Bond prices and interest rates would soar.
- [KDelta futures trading model update](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-trading-model-update-2/) - K DELTA 2014: Commodity futures trading system Updated 12-23-14 Open positions: 12-15-14 Sell HEG 83.25 Exit 78.25 Profit Stop 83 12-03-14 Sell ZLH 3213 Exit 3056 Stop 3278 Below: $P/(L)/contract=profit and loss of single contract trade per signal P/L % margin= profit & loss per trade based upon margin required per contract . Assumes
- [Stocks Tank On Oil Slick](https://execspec.net/stocks-tank-on-oil-slick/) - Peak Oil? We have enjoyed mocking peak oil prognosticators for many years. The tired Malthusian argument that the world would run out of Fossil Fuels each of the last several decades gets old especially when technology has enabled the US and potentially the world to increase Oil and Gas production at a parabolic rate in recent
- [Low Oil Means Lower Stocks: Dow Low Due In 2nd Half Of December](https://execspec.net/low-due-stocks-2nd-half-december/) - Lower Oil prices are unequivocally Great News right? Despite leading experts incessantly stating how great falling energy prices are, falling Oil prices coincide with lower stock markets and slowing economies. The only major Oil price drops in history - 1980 and 2008 - signaled the start of major recessions and lower stock prices. Even the
- [KDelta Futures Trading Model Update](https://execspec.net/kdelta-futures-trading-model-update/) - K DELTA Futures 2014 11-25-14 K DELTA 2014: Commodity futures trading system Updated 11-25-14 Open positions: 11-25-14 Sell A6Z 8519 Exit 8395 11-26-14 Buy KCH 618 Exit 646-6 (627) Pending Signal using Buy or Sell Stops only: Buy PAF 809.4 Sell HGH 295 Sell E6Z 123.6 Buy KCH 201.4 207.15 Sell S6Z 102.67 Assume a
- [US Economy Shines Brightly Upon Global Shadows](https://execspec.net/us-economy-shines-brightly-upon-global-shadows/) - US Economy Shines Brightly Upon Global Shadows If there was one concept to explain the unique dominance of the US economic performance over the rest of the world we would point to Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially a 2008 invention to prevent the global panic that was evolving from the bursting of the US mortgage
- [Junk Bonds Warn of Pullback in Stocks](https://execspec.net/junk-bonds-warn-pullback-stocks/) - Junk Bonds Warn of Pullback in Stocks The stock market continues to reach record heights, positive earnings have surprised consensus and the leading indicators on the economy look warm and sunny. Some caveats are the German resistance to European growth, the notable lag in small cap stocks in the US and High Yield Bond prices
- [Goldilocks for US Stocks?](https://execspec.net/goldilocks-us-stocks/) - Goldilocks for US Stocks? Finally! Stocks have their first 10% or greater correction in over 2 years and their largest price drop in over 3 years. However, within 3 weeks after hitting The Low, prices are right back to new highs. The US remains the cleanest of the dirty shirts and an oasis of calm
- [Bear Market in Russia](https://execspec.net/bear-market-in-russia/) - Russian Bear is Back 11-06-14 Russia may be the Bear eating away at Ukraine, but Putin's pride and aggression are causing a Bear market to manifest in his own country as the currency and stock markets start to break down further. Using Russia's stock market (RTS) as a wealth indicator we can see the
- [Gold & Precious Metals Break Down as Dollar Soars](https://execspec.net/gold-precious-metals-break-dollar-soars/) - As Europe remains on the verge of another recession, Germany refuses to let Europe stimulate, helping Gold to fall through yet another major support zone that we have been forecasting to break for months.
- [Exec Spec - October 20 2014 (premium)](https://execspec.net/bull-market-dragged-lower-10-20-14/) - Bull Market Dragged Lower in Stock Market With the major stock averages falling 10% at their lows we advised increasing exposure to 90% invested. Markets are priced on earnings expectations and long term cycles still point higher. We highlighted a short term bottom last week with an options chart at the lows and add this
- [Exec Spec - October 17 2014 (premium)](https://execspec.net/5-year-bull-market-itch-strikes/) - 5 Year Bull Market Itch Strikes Again The current 5 year peak in stocks may not lead to a massive top and Bear market as did the previous 3, it has currently given way to the largest correction in over 2 years—so far. A separate medium term warning of trouble we sent out the day
- [Emerging Markets - Emerging Risk](https://execspec.net/emerging-markets-emerging-risk/) - Large investment funds typically diversify with various categories of domestic stock groups – small cap, growth, healthcare, value…, as well as fixed income, alternative commodity fun and emerging markets. Emerging market exposure is wise - long term Today unique uncertainties revolve around a brave new world of “money for nothin’ and debt for free” (to
- [China Watch](https://execspec.net/china-watch/) - China is walking a tightrope - Shan gao huangdi yuan Managing expectations and its stock market since 2011, China continues trying to bring their “shadow banking” market to heel without creating a panic and economic stall speed. Clearly Bernanke/Yellen with our Federal Reserve Bank have been more successful. China's Shadow banking refers to the unregulated capital
- [Europe - money supply](https://execspec.net/europe-money-supply/) - European Central Bank (ECB) has drained monetary reserves If one wonders why there is such a bifurcated world between an ever growing US economy and a recessionary economy such as Europe, look no further than the Central Banks. While the US Fed added over $3 Trillion in funny money to our banking system Europe added just
- [Long term OK but Too much Complacency Spells Trouble](https://execspec.net/long-term-ok-but-too-much-complacency-spells-trouble/) - Stocks are not cheap, but the Bull lives on credit Stock market values are based upon the discounted perception of future rates of earnings and growth primarily. Many fundamental methods are used along with technical analysis to determine periods of over or under value. One tool is adviser sentiment: when too many are positive then
- [Decade of Deleveraging Subdues Housing, Wages and Economic Growth Rates](https://execspec.net/decade-of-deleveraging/) - Since the 1970’s with the advent of free floating currencies and free market capitalism the global economy has progressed at unsafe speeds powered by a seductive credit machine that will gladly foster consumption today for payment tomorrow. A tomorrow that never comes! Deep down we know that our ego has been writing checks our body
- [Rebound on hold](https://execspec.net/rebound-on-hold/) - Housing slump from 2008 Easy credit, lax oversight, tech Bubble Billions, Government policies dictating unqualified home ownership and a demographic peak in Baby Boomers needing homes are all factors in the parabolic housing Boom and Bust. With the weak income recovery and tighter lending policies resulting from the 2008 recession, home ownership remains moribund while
- [Bernanke binge boosts US & Global Economy into new leg higher](https://execspec.net/bernanke-binge-boosts-us-global-economy-into-new-leg-higher/) - Bernanke’s 2013 exit may be well timed After all as his near solo effort to add or influence unlimited reserves to all central banks is showing renewed signs of success. It takes a long time to deleverage the private economy after decades of debt binging. Central Banks have kept providing interest rates artificially low elevated
- [Money supply rises faster yet deflation remains the concern](https://execspec.net/money-supply-rises-faster-as-deflation-becomes-a-concern/) - Too many wrongly assume inflation and rising rates This naive assumption is made when too much money is printed and the monetary base expands rapidly. Money velocity is weak in this debt loaded disinflationary economy and without the 2009 massive central bank money creation help deflation would have occurred. Each time the economy slows during
- [No Bond Bubble Burst!](https://execspec.net/no-bond-bubble-burst/) - For over 4 years the consensus has been talking about a Bond Bubble that will burst sending interest rates higher as record money inflows into the safety of Bonds reverses in a tidal wave of panicked investors selling Bonds as inflation surges. Our long held assumption of a growing economy that gradually matures into faster
- [Pent up borrowing capacity grows as incomes stagnate](https://execspec.net/pent-up-borrowing-capacity-grows-as-incomes-stagnate/) - Debt service on corporate and consumer debt remains near record lows With a slow growing economy and record low debt service demands there is a huge pent up demand for capital expenditures and borrowing. Falling unemployment, low consumer debt obligations and eventually rising wages will allow stocks to regain their footing from any serious down
- [Peak Oil? Not a chance!](https://execspec.net/peak-oil-not-a-chance/) - Oil prices over $100 are very elevated. They are actually down 40% from the 2008 peak, but given the excessive sentiment of Hedge Funds Buying Oil over the past year and producers Selling we feel the risk remains to the downside Record Bullishness by Funds and record selling by producers should lead to a downtrend
- [Exec Spec - September 4 2014 (premium)](https://execspec.net/september2014-exec-spec/) - IP Oh! Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of stock to raise capital are heating up with a possible record setting launch of Alibaba this month (~16—$20 Bill’). US IPO’s are on course to reach 14 year highs in issues and dollar volume this year, still well below the 90’s pinnacle. A long term peak in IPO’s

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