KDelta Stock Trading Model

February 8, 2016 Stocks No Comments

2016 KDELTA Stocks  portfolio update                  02-08-16

2016 YTD KDelta P/(L) = +0.7%   vs SP 500 Index = -(10%)

After sentiment readings gave strong Buy indications on January 20th  after the March SP reversed from 1804, we expected a modest rebound followed by a retest of the January lows or new lows by late February to early March. There were some sentiment reversals back to the Sell side last week and we remain a market led by the nose by Oil prices. A sharp $3+ drop in Oil the last couple of days has coincided with over 500 points of correction in the Dow.

Year to date stocks are down about 10% (& 14% from 2015 record highs) and the KDelta portfolio is positive. A short to medium term bottom will occur when Oil has bottomed, which we have been forecasting for months to occur in February or by mid-March when inventory drawdowns may trigger a reversal. A China currency panic or a surprise weakening of the global macroeconomic picture could always extend the Oil decline into the seasonally strong period between March and May, but we would favor seasonality until the pattern is broken. 

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{Results 2014=+10%; 2015=-1% vs SP 500 Index –(1%)}

 

Closed Positions 2016:

.                                                                                                          P/(L) % to

.                                                                                                          Portfolio at

Entry                                                   Exit                Profit/loss      5%/trade

02-02-16 Buy ACC 42.00              02-08-16       42.40  0.94%       0.047

02-03-16 Buy AEM 30.70            02-08-16        34.4    12.3%       0.615

February results = +0.66%   YTD= +0.66%

January results   = 0

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