KDelta Racks Up Gains Selling Gold/Oil/Aussie

Our breakout model recorded near record activity with 18 signals covering 13 separate commodities in July. The plethora of sell signals, even though short term, bolster our long held fundamental perspective of a disinflationary or deflationary decade. Quite possibly we are in a 3rd leg down of a broad based commodity down cycle since 2011 and perhaps even 2008. Long term global debt and capacity excess combined with 1st world aging demographic trends have been the primary cause. These down-waves in price have been merely interrupted by rebound rallies after each new attempt at monetary inflation through currency and credit printing by central banks. Eventually these rallies fail when the markets realize that the herculean efforts to inflate monetarily are being initiated because the deflationary forces are so powerful. Consumption growth rates have not been able to be stimulated nor have lowered prices constricted supply sufficiently. In the case of Oil, prices have collapsed over a 1 year time frame, yet production and inventories continue to grow and consumption is flat. This was as forecasted, but surprisingly these downtrends have confounded economists, analysts and fund managers. Sounds like some simple economics here, yet sophisticated Hedge Funds are losing money and closing their doors.

Our long term models are performing well, but the short term KDelta model shown here is having a stellar year with a surprising number of trades pending should commodity prices continue to fall.

K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system

Updated 08-01-15

KDelta profit YTD = $49,223 = +492% for 2015 YTD 65% winning trades

with no compounding using single contracts

(Italic=New trades/changes since last free update)

Open positions: Entry               Exit             Stop (Loss)/profit

07-17-15 Sell GCQ 1135.2        1055.8        1110.2 convert to December contract

07-17-15 Sell GCZ 1134.9         1057.0        1110.1

Pending Signal entries using Buy or Sell Stops only (GTC or good until canceled):

Sell OJU 106.25   Exit 93 “or” Buy OJU 128.45  Exit 138

Buy E6U 114.86                  Exit 117.26    Cancel order

Buy QMQ 5390                   Exit 5582.5    Cancel order: contract expired

Sell E6U 10816                    Exit 10677

Buy E6U 11138                   Exit TBD

Sell C6U 7628                      Exit 7534

Sell N6U 6466                     Exit 6374

Buy DXU 9832                    Exit 9940

Sell GCZ 1073.6                  Exit 1055.4

Buy ESU 2126.25               Exit 2196

Sell NGU 2655                    Exit 2590

Sell NGU 2588                   Exit 2355

Sell NGU 2588                   Exit 2212

Sell HOU 15778                Exit 15431

Buy ZFU 12001.75           Exit 12011.00

Buy ZNU 12720.5            Exit 12807

Buy NKU 20995               Exit 21695

————

Assume a $10,000 opening account & one contract per trade/signal

Legend: Currencies: Australian $=A6, British Pound=B6, Canadian $=C6,New Zealand $=N6, Euro=E6, Yen= J6, Swiss Franc=S6, US Dollar=DX.  Ags: Corn= ZC, Wheat=ZW, Soybeans=ZS, Soybean Meal=ZM, Soybean Oil=ZL, Oats=ZO, Wheat=ZW, KC Wheat=KE. Metals: Copper=HG, Gold=GC, Silver=SI, Platinum=PL, Palladium=PA. Stock Indexes: SP 500=ES, Dow/DJIA=YM, Nasdaq=NQ, Mini-Russell 2000=TF, Nikkei=NKU. Softs: Cocoa=CC, Coffee=KC, Sugar=SB, Cotton=CT, Orange Juice=OJ, Lumber=LB.  Bonds: 30 Year T-Bonds=ZB, 10 Year Note=ZN, 5 Year Note=ZF. Energies: RB=Unleaded Gasoline; HO=Heating Oil; CL= Crude Oil; QM=mini-Crude Oil; NG=Natural Gas     {final-3rd– letter in symbol refers to contract month: Jan’=F; Feb’=G; Mar’=H; Apr’=J; May=K; Jun’=M; Jul’=N; Aug’=Q; Sep’=U; Oct’=V; Nov’=X; Dec’=Z}

Below: $P/(L)/contract=profit and loss of single contract trade per signal

P/L % margin= profit & loss per trade based upon margin required per contract

Profit/Loss based on $10k opening account for 2015 YTD

……………………………………………………………………………. $ P/(L)    P/L

Date   Signal    Entry              Exit date/price             Contract   %margin

07-16-15 Sell S6U 104.93           07-30-15 103.22         2137            35%    

07-22-15 Sell ZLZ 3158               07-27-15  3045              678            77%

07-17-15 Sell QMU  5102.5       07-24-15 4862.5         1220            49%

07-16-15 Sell A6U 7327              07-24-15  7252             850           38%

07-06-15 Sell A6U 7469              07-24-15    7294         1750           80%

07-15-15 Sell GCQ 1143.7          07-20-15 1118.5         2520           61%

07-16-15 Buy ZMZ 356.5           07-16-15 349.7           (680)          (28%)

07-13-15 Buy ESU 2079.25        07-14-15  2097.75        925           18%

07-07-15 Sell SIU 1534               07-13-15  1564          (1500)        (20%)

07-06-15 Sell KCU 126.25          07-13-15  127.95         (638)        (17%)

07-02-15 Sell GCQ 1162.0          07-08-15  1146.6        1540         37%

07-06-15 Sell A6U 7553              07-07-15  7402           1510         69%

07-07-15 Sell RBQ  197.13         07-07-15 198.13         (420)         (7%)

06-26-15 Buy KEZ 590-2             07-06-15 598-2            400          81%

07-02-15 Buy NGQ 2870            07-06-15  2794            (760)       (36%)

07-06-15 Sell HOQ 182.27         07-06-15  177.32         2079        37%

06-29-15 Sell HOQ 182.80        07-01-15  188.35        (2331)       (42%)

06-26-15 Sell QMQ 59.15         07-01-15  57.35            1100         47%

July results: 12 win & 6 loss = $10,380

YTD 51 wins & 27 losses: Profit using single contracts= $49,223 = +492%

 

06-18-15 Buy S6U 10867          06-19-15 10847         (250)       ( 4%)

06-18-15 Buy A6U 7777            06-19-15 7711           (666)      (30%)

06-22-15 Buy NQU 4544.00     06-25-15 4512.00      (640)       (16%)

06-18-15 Buy GCQ 1191.9        06-18-15 1204.9       1300          32%

06-15-15 Buy CCU 3168            06-16-15 3225            570           52%

06-15-15 Sell CTN 63.02           06-16-15  63.31          (145)       (10%)

06-11-15 Sell SBN 11.82           06-15-15 11.51            347          39%

06-09-15 Buy RBN 208.42        06-10-15 213.41        2096          33%

06-09-15 Sell ZBU 148-18        06-10-15 147-17        1132          30%

05-26-15 Sell J6M 8199             06-05-15 7950          3112        109%

06-05-15 Sell PLN 1088.7          06-05-15 1092          (165)          (8%)

05-29-15 Buy ZFM 119-21.75   06-01-15  119-15.50  (49)           (5%)

06-01-15 Sell ZMN 301.3          06-01-15 297.3           400           19%

June results: 7 wins & 3 losses = $7042

YTD 39 wins & 21 losses =$38,843 = +388%

 

05-29-15 Buy ZNM 128-05   05-29-15 128-05            0              0

05-22-15 Sell ZSN 934-6       05-29-15 934-6               0               0

05-21-15 Sell QMN 59.1       05-26-15 58.025         537            23%

05-14-15 Buy YMM 18189   05-26-15 18185          (20)             0%

05-19-15 Sell ZSN 948-6       05-22-15  932              837           38%

05-20-15 Sell J6M 8279        05-26-15 8201             975           34%

05-20-15 Buy ESM 2120       05-26-15 2114            (300)          (6%)

05-12-15 Sell ZMN 307.4      05-13-15 302.7            470           22%

05-11-15 Buy CCN 2968        05-11-15   3010           420          38%

05-01-15 Sell KCN 134.30   50% 05-08-15 134.05   109            2%

05-04-15 Sell KCN 131.95   50% 05-08-15 134.30 (1022)      (23%)

05-05-15 Buy PAM 788.10  50% 05-08-15 801

& 50% 05-11-15  783.90                                               435           10%

04-13-15 Sell ZFM 120-00     05-05-15 119-21         344           35%

04-29-15 Buy S6M 10580      05-05-15 10805        2812           34%

04-29-15 Buy QMM 5885      05-05-15 6030            725           27%

May results: 10 wins & 2 loss  P/L= $6,052  

YTD results= 32 wins & 15 losses: P/L=$31,801 = 318%

 

04-29-15 Sell ZNM 128-18     04-30-15 127-27       718             43%

04-23-15 Buy ESM 2110         04-30-15 2090.50    (950)          (19%)

04-24-15 Sell ZCN 374-6        04-27-15 366-4          412             37%

04-16-15 Buy N6M 7639        04-23-15  7594         (450)          (19%)

04-15-15 Sell RBM 188.60     04-20-15 190.15        650             25%

04-13-15 Buy HOM 180.60    04-15-15 189.00     3528             70%

04-09-15 Sell ZMN 314.5       04-20-15 317.5         (300)          (14%)

04-09-15 Sell NGM 2632       04-16-15 2632               0                  0

03-30-15 Sell NGK 2619        04-02-15 2718           (990)            (23%)

04-02-15 Buy ZWK 540-6      04-07-15   526           (738)            (52%)

04-02-15 Buy KEK 579-4       04-07-15 564-4          (250)            (18%)

03-31-15 Sell ZOK 265-2       04-01-15 262               162              13%

April results: 5 wins & 6 losses P/L=$ 1792

YTD results=22 wins & 13 losses: P/L = $25,459 = +255%

 

03-17-15 Sell ZCK 373-4     03-20-15 377-6              (213)           (19%)

03-13-15 Sell D6H 7800     03-18-15 7921             (1210)            (66%)

03-10-15 Sell J6H 8218       03-12-15 8272               (675)            (21%)

02-12-15 Buy NQH 4342.5 03-10-15 4389.5              940              24%

02-13-15 Buy ESH 2089      03-06-15  2089                     0               0

02-26-15 Buy DXH 95.24    03-05-15  96.60             1360              82%

02-26-15 Sell E6H 112.74   03-04-15  111.28           1825             54%

02-26-15 Buy HOJ 19423    03-04-15 18823           (2520)           (50%)

March results: 3 wins & 4 losses: P/L= $(493);

YTD=17W&7L: YTD P/L=$23,667=237%

 

02-25-15  Buy RBJ 18825    02-27-15 19528             2952             52%

02-25-15 Buy A6H 7860      02-26-15  7830              (300)           (12%)

02-24-15 Buy HGK 264.10  02-26-15  270.60           1625             43%

02-17-15 Sell LBK 303.75    02-24-15 292.9              1193             68%

02-18-15 Sell OJK 133         02-23-15  129                   600             45%

02-17-15 Sell KCK 161.15    02-19-15 154.20           2606             59%

01-16-15 Sell ZSH 990-6      02-03-15 966-6             1200             44%

February results:6 wins & 1 losses:14W/3L:P/L=$9,876:YTD=$24,160=+242%

 

01-28-15 Sell QMH 4479      01-29-15  4369             550               20%

01-26-15 Sell S6H 11353      01-29-15 10891          5775               69%

01-22-15 Sell B6H 15026      01-26-15 15053          (169)               (9%)

01-13-15 Sell ZMH 336.9      01-20-15      322.2      1470               67%

01-15-15 Sell NQH 4080.5    01-16-15    4101.5      (420)            (11%)

01-12-15 Sell HOG 16714    01-13-15      16316      1671              44%

01-12-15 Sell QMG 4682     01-13-15         4545        685              37%

12-15-14  Sell HEG 83.25      01-06-15      78.17      2032            154%

01-02-15 Sell D6H 8544        01-05-15       8472        720               57%

12-30-14 Sell CLG 53.97        01-05-15       50.03     1970            105%

January results: 8 wins & 2 loss: P/L=$14,284= +143% gain on $10k account

Final results for 2014 trading single contracts per signal=$49,937 which = +250% on a $20,000 account & 500% on a $10,000 account starting value

 

 

Disclaimer and Notice:  Nothing herein, including any attachments, should be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer, or a recommendation, to buy any interest in any investment or other product. This may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication that are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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