K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system
Updated 04-05-16
Commodity review: – Our long Soybean Oil trade came within 3 ticks of our target exit picked almost 4 weeks ago. Higher prices beyond our “first” target seem likely with near term risk near 3316. However, we seek to exit in the lower left hand corner of all our time and price windows. – Our stop loss in Cotton was triggered today, even though the upside still has potential should we hold the 6800 support area and rally sharply soon. – The stop we used in our Natural Gas trade was too wide as the parabolic rise and fall in Nat Gas prices moved quicker than expected. While the trade is still active, the chart action looks sloppy. – The US Dollar is an interesting focus. The Dollar has been falling meaningfully the past 2 months. A further decline will add tremendous confidence that US Earnings and stock prices would continue to rebound as the year progresses. Our Kdelta may soon generate a short term Sell signal upon new 2016 price lows.
KDelta profit YTD=$17,784=178%:
YTD = 23 wins & 12 losses = 66% winning trades
(no compounding using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance)
Open positions
Entry Exit Stop (Loss)/Profit Exit
04-04-16 Buy NGK 2033 2131 1925
Pending Signals: entries using Buy or Sell Stops only (GTC or good until canceled):[wlmprivate “Annually|Bi-Annually|Monthly|Free Trial”]
Entry Price Target Exit Price Initial Trailing Stop
Sell DXM 9229 9155 9265
Buy CTK 5948 6042 5888
Legend: Currencies: Australian $=A6 or 6A, British Pound=B6 or 6B, Canadian $=C6 or 6C, New Zealand $=N6 or 6N, Euro=E6 or 6E, Yen= J6 or 6J, Swiss Franc=S6 or 6S, US Dollar=DX. Ags: Corn= ZC, Soybeans=ZS, Soybean Meal=ZM, Soybean Oil=ZL, Oats=ZO, Wheat=ZW, KC Wheat=KE. Metals: Copper=HG, Gold=GC, mini-Gold= YG, Silver=SI, Platinum=PL, Palladium=PA. Stock Indexes: SP 500=ES, Dow/DJIA=YM, Nasdaq=NQ, Mini-Russell 2000=TF, Nikkei=NKE. Softs: Cocoa=CC or CO, Coffee=KC, Sugar=SB, Cotton=CT, Orange Juice=OJ, Lumber=LB. Bonds: 30 Year T-Bonds=ZB, 10 Year Note=ZN, 5 Year Note=ZF. Energies: RB=Unleaded Gasoline; HO=Heating Oil; CL= Crude Oil; QM=mini-Crude Oil; NG=Natural Gas {final or 3rd– letter in symbol refers to contract month: Jan’=F; Feb’=G; Mar’=H; Apr’=J; May=K; Jun’=M; Jul’=N; Aug’=Q; Sep’=U; Oct’=V; Nov’=X; Dec’=Z}. All contracts are considered to be the most current year.
Assume a $10,000 opening account & one contract per trade/signal
Below: $P/(L)/contract=profit and loss of single contract trade per signal
P/L % margin= profit & loss per trade based upon margin/investment required per contract
Profit/Loss based on $10k opening account for 2016 YTD [/wlmprivate]
KDelta 2016 Closed Trades/Performance
. $ P/(L) P/L
Date Signal Entry Exit date/price Contract %margin
03-17-16 Buy ZLK 32.78 04-05-16 3398 720 82%
04-01-16 Buy CTK 5890 04-05-16 5857 (165) (13%)
April results: 1 Wins & 1 Loss: P/L=$555 YTD $17,784
03-29-16 Buy S6M 10406 03-30-16 10406 0 0
03-31-16 Buy S6M 10460 03-31-16 10460 0 0
03-29-16 Buy ZCK 372-2 03-30-16 369-2 (150) (15%)
03-03-16 Buy YGJ 1264.0 03-07-16 1264.0 0 0
02-25-16 Buy C6H 7332 03-01-16 7426 960 56%
March results: 1 Win & 1 loss: P/L= $810 YTD=$17,229
02-26-16 Buy HGK 21410 02-29-16 21000 (1025) (33%)
02-26-16 Buy N6H 6741 02-26-16 6711 (300) (12%)
02-16-16 Sell B6H 14351 02-18-16 14340 69 3%
02-08-16 Sell ZMH 263.7 02-11-16 263.7 0 0%
02-10-16 Sell QMH 2755 02-11-16 2625 650 34%
02-10-16 Buy ZBH 167-09 02-11-16 168-24 1,469 33%
02-08-16 Buy ZNH 130-24 02-09-16 131-14 687 46%
02-08-16 Buy ZBH 164-08 02-08-16 165-08 1000 25%
02-05-16 Sell NKH 16630 02-08-16 16625 25 0.5%
02-04-16 Sell KEH 464-4 02-05-16 452-2 612 37%
02-03-16 Buy PAH 509.15 02-05-16 505.9 (425) (9%)
01-29-16 Buy ZNH 129-09 02-04-16 130-04 844 57%
02-13-16 Sell E6H 11001 02-03-16 11135 1675 43%
02-03-16 Buy N6H 6540 02-03-16 6640 1000 39%
01-29-16 Buy ZBH 161-19 02-02-16 162-25 1187 27%
01-29-16 Buy ZFH 120-15.50 02-02-16 120-26.50 343 35%
01-26-16 Sell CTH 6114 02-01-16 6190 (380) (31%)
February results: 12 wins & 2 losses: P/(L)=$7,431: YTD=$16,419
01-29-16 Sell S6H 9822 01-29-16 9772 625 13%
01-28-16 Sell ZMH 268.0 01-29-16 269.6 (160) (8%)
01-22-16 Sell S6H 9875 01-28-16 9919 (550) (11%)
01-27-16 Sell SBH 1392 01-28-16 1343 549 49%
01-26-16 Buy SIH 1443 01-28-16 1435 (400) (7%)
01-26-16 Buy GCJ 1113.8 01-27-16 1127.2 1340 32%
01-11-16 Sell KCH 11525 01-22-16 11685 (600) (18%)
01-15-16 Buy ZBH 159-05 01-22-16 159-08 93 2%
01-21-16 Buy DXH 9976 01-21-16 9939 (470) (16%)
01-11-16 Sell SBH 1422 01-13-16 1434 (135) (12%)
01-08-16 Sell OJH 138.90 01-12-16 131.50 1260 76%
01-05-16 Sell ZLH 2966 01-11-16 2925 246 23%
01-05-16 Sell PAH 540 01-06-16 518 2200 48%
01-04-16 Sell YMH 16990 01-08-16 16348 3210 75%
01-04-16 Buy GCG 1088.4 01-07-16 1106.2 1780 43%
January results: 9 wins & 6 losses: P/L=+$8,988/per contract: YTD=$8,988
KDelta final profit for 2015 = $74,322 with no compounding using single contracts
Final results for 2014 trading single contracts per signal=$49,937
Disclaimer and Notice: This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss. It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you. You must perform your own due diligence. Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk. You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.