KDelta Churns Lower: Fed Raises Rates

Rate Hike words in green letters on a calculator display to illustrate increased interest costs in borrowing money in a loan, mortgage or financing
Rate Hike words in green letters on a calculator display to illustrate increased interest costs in borrowing money in a loan, mortgage or financing

Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen and her FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate today by a quarter point as we and 80% of all analysts foretold. With the last economic data point of a strong labor market out of the way in early December there was virtually nothing that was going to stop this rate hike that the Fed has been wanting to enact all year. They had a window and jumped through as quickly as they could. Ironically US manufacturing data today revealed a weakening economy. The good news is that European manufacturing and services purchasing managers indices (PMI) showed robust strength and there are signs China is stimulating further. Should the US Services PMI report this Friday reveal  strength vs Manufacturing PMI today, then we will likely see interest rates and the Dollar gain strength into year end.  Raising the Fed interbank borrowing rate should not cause harm, but it was also illogical. The reason given for the hike was fear of runaway inflation in a year or two. With a weak global economy full of rising energy and emerging market credit risk that has been concerned more about deflation than inflation for years, it makes no sense to raise rates for combating inflation when the current risk is deflation. The low unemployment rate and job creation data gave cover, but the real reason for this rate hike was likely psychological. Higher rates were needed to manage expectations and elevate the myth that the Fed can strongly influence the economy and save the day when necessary. Perception is reality so as long as the financial movers and shakers trust or feel the paper currency backed system is the best place for their assets, then the celestial global central bank myth will live on. We should expect confidence to be sustained for now, but just remember that the global system is based upon the psychology of trust in our leaders and the illusion we are conditioned to percieve, not based upon hard assets and sound management. 

While stock indices are mired in a trading range there are Bullish underpinnings technically until the December lows are broken. After a 5 month corrective pattern with higher lows coming off of the most oversold sentiment numbers in August/September since the Bull market began in 2009, we are compelled to assume that any new record high price will mark a breakout wave in the Nasdaq, SP 500 and Dow DJIA. Our KDelta model states the Buy Stop entries below. Any price below the current December low will turn the short to medium term trend lower. Oil prices remian a severe risk.

option sentiment 12-15

KDelta is a nice short term model that generates consistent profits annually diversified over more than 30 different commodities, including the stock market. We just report them as they appear. We report the good and the bad. Even though virtually every month this year moved to a new high we acknowledge a frustrating run of losing trades that at their worst reveals just 4 winners out of the last 16 signals. Significant news events and corresponding market confusion causing a higher than normal number of false breakouts would seem to be the culprit. This tends to be the highest risk time of the year for such failed signals. A strong $76,000 gain is still evident for 2015 using just single futures contract per signal. There are no open trades currently, but the stock market is coiling for a potential breakout to the upside upon any new highs from this point forward, as long as the November/December lows hold.

EXEC SPEC  by Kurt Kallaus

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K DELTA 2015: Commodity futures trading system

Updated 12-16-15

KDelta profit YTD= = $76,002 for 2015:

 YTD = 79 wins & 49 losses = 62% winning trades with no compounding using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance.

(Italic=New trades/changes since last free update)

Open positions: Entry               Exit             Stop (Loss)/profit

None

Pending Signal entries using Buy or Sell Stops only (GTC or good until canceled):

Sell HGH 20015                         Exit 19520

Buy ESH 2103.00                      Exit 2162.00

Buy YMH 17829                        Exit 18305

Buy NQH 4735.00                    Exit TBD

Sell RBG 11950                        Exit 11089

Buy CCH 3430                         Exit 50% 3551 & 50% 3619

::::TBD= To Be  Determined in future updates

Assume a $10,000 opening account & one contract per trade/signal

Legend: Currencies: Australian $=A6, British Pound=B6, Canadian $=C6,New Zealand $=N6, Euro=E6, Yen= J6, Swiss Franc=S6, US Dollar=DX.  Ags: Corn= ZC, Soybeans=ZS, Soybean Meal=ZM, Soybean Oil=ZL, Oats=ZO, Wheat=ZW, KC Wheat=KE. Metals: Copper=HG, Gold=GC, mini-Gold= YG, Silver=SI, Platinum=PL, Palladium=PA. Stock Indexes: SP 500=ES, Dow/DJIA=YM, Nasdaq=NQ, Mini-Russell 2000=TF, Nikkei=NKE. Softs: Cocoa=CC, Coffee=KC, Sugar=SB, Cotton=CT, Orange Juice=OJ, Lumber=LB.  Bonds: 30 Year T-Bonds=ZB, 10 Year Note=ZN, 5 Year Note=ZF. Energies: RB=Unleaded Gasoline; HO=Heating Oil; CL= Crude Oil; QM=mini-Crude Oil; NG=Natural Gas     {final or 3rd– letter in symbol refers to contract month: Jan’=F; Feb’=G; Mar’=H; Apr’=J; May=K; Jun’=M; Jul’=N; Aug’=Q; Sep’=U; Oct’=V; Nov’=X; Dec’=Z}

Below: $P/(L)/contract=profit and loss of single contract trade per signal

P/L % margin= profit & loss per trade based upon margin required per contract

Profit/Loss based on $10k opening account for 2015 YTD

…………………………………………………………………………………..  $ P/(L)      P/L

Date    Signal        Entry                 Exit date/price             Contract   %margin

12-16-15 Buy N6H 6797               12-16-15 6739                (580)        (23%)

12-11-15 Buy ZBH 156-09            12-14-15 155-30             (313)         (8%)

12-04-15 Buy CTH 6451                12-10-15  6396               (275)        (19%)

12-09-15 Buy J6H 8206                12-09-15   8272                825          28%

12-07-15 Sell D6H 7440               12-07-15 7395                  450          26%

11-10-15 Sell KEZ 465-4               12-03-15 472-4               (363)        (19%)

12-01-15 Sell ZWH 471-6             12-03-15 480-6              (450)         (23%)

12-02-15 Sell QMF 3995              12-03-15 3095                (500)         (20%)

12-01-15 Buy N6Z 6600              12-01-15 6670                 700            27%

11-30-15 Sell HOF 3710               12-01-15 3780                (294)           (5%)

December results: 3 win & 5 losses = ($900)

YTD=79 wins & 49 losses = $76,002

11-24-15 Buy SBH 1554               11-24-15 1516                (437)         (39%)

11-12-15 Sell HOF 14430             11-24-15  14260             714           12%

11-11-15 Sell HGZ 22020             11-23-15 20135            4712         138%

11-16-15 Buy CCH 3369               11-23-15 3334              (350)         (35%)

11-23-15 Sell ZSF 849-6               11-23-15 852-6             (150)           (5%)

11-23-15 Sell HOF 13740             11-23-15 14040          (1320)         (22%)

11-23-15 Sell QMF 4120              11-23-15 4170              (250)          (10%)

10-27-15 Sell S6Z 10146              11-18-15 9802              4300             87%

11-02-15 Sell PAZ 66750             11-02-15 64560            2190             47%

10-29-15 Sell ZBZ 155-25            11-02-15 154-02          1719             46%

November results: 5 wins & 5 losses = $11,558

YTD= 76 wins & 42 losses = $76,802

10-28-15 Sell ZNZ 128-05            10-30-15 127-16          656              44%

10-28-15 Sell ZFZ 120-07.50       10-29-15 119-26.50     406              41%

10-15-15 Buy J6Z 8446                10-20-15 8361          (1063)            (36%)

10-14-15 Buy YGZ 1169.9           10-19-15 1173.8           195                9%

10-15-15 Sell RBX 12922             10-18-15 13206       (1236)             (21%)

10-05-15 Buy ZLZ 2831                10-15-15 2831             0                      0

10-06-15 Buy ZCZ 395-2              10-08-15 393-4            85                   6%

10-01-15 Buy KCZ 12340             10-05-15 12690        1312               35%

09-30-15 Buy ZSX 894-6              10-01-15 890-6         (200)               (7%)

09-29-15 Sell NKEZ 17175          10-01-15 17500       (1625)             (27%)

October results: 5 Wins & 4 loss = ($1470)

YTD = 71 wins 37 losses   $65,244

09-24-15 Sell QMX 4388             09-24-15   4470        (410)              (16%)

09-22-15 Sell KCZ 115.95            09-24-15   117.35     (525)              (14%)

09-22-15 Sell PLV 1945.3            09-24-15    947.3      (100)               ( 5%)

08-24-15 Sell NGV 2692              09-21-15  2658          340                 16%

09-02-15 Sell NGV 2637              09-21-15 2658           210                 10%

08-24-15 Sell ZMZ 304.9             09-14-15 312.0        (710)               (29%)

09-10-15 Buy NGV 2736             09-14-15    2803        670                 32%

September results: 3 wins & 4 losses= ($525)

YTD = 66 wins & 33 losses  = $66,714

 

08-28-15 Sell ZWZ 488-0             08-31-15  477-4         525               27%

08-24-15 Sell PAZ 58995             08-25-15 55550       3445               87%

08-03-15 Sell C6U 7628               08-24-15 7588           400               22%

08-12-15 Buy E6U 11138            08-24-15 11381       3037              78%

08-19-15 Sell ZSX 895-4              08-24-15  856-0       1975              69%

08-20-15 Sell ESU 203400          08-21-15  200375     1512             30%

08-19-15 Sell HOV 15383           08-20-15 14990        1650             29%

07-17-15 Sell GCZ 1134.9           08-12-15  1110.1      2480             59%

08-12-15 Buy ZFU 12001.75      08-12-15 12011.00     289             29%

08-03-15 Buy OJU 128.45          08-10-15 129.05           80               5%

07-31-15 Buy ZNU 12720.5       08-04-15   12704      (516)           (35%)

08-07-15 Buy DXU 9832             08-07-15    9765       (670)           (28%)

08-03-15 Buy OJU 127.05          08-05-15 132.65        840              57%

08-03-15 Sell HOU 15778          08-03-15 15431        1457             26%

August results: 12 wins & 2 losses = $18,016

YTD = 63 wins & 29 losses = $67,239

 

07-16-15 Sell S6U 104.93           07-30-15 103.22         2137            35%   

07-22-15 Sell ZLZ 3158               07-27-15  3045              678            77%

07-17-15 Sell QMU  5102.5       07-24-15 4862.5         1220            49%

07-16-15 Sell A6U 7327              07-24-15  7252             850           38%

07-06-15 Sell A6U 7469              07-24-15    7294         1750           80%

07-15-15 Sell GCQ 1143.7          07-20-15 1118.5         2520           61%

07-16-15 Buy ZMZ 356.5           07-16-15 349.7           (680)          (28%)

07-13-15 Buy ESU 2079.25        07-14-15  2097.75        925           18%

07-07-15 Sell SIU 1534               07-13-15  1564          (1500)        (20%)

07-06-15 Sell KCU 126.25          07-13-15  127.95         (638)        (17%)

07-02-15 Sell GCQ 1162.0          07-08-15  1146.6        1540         37%

07-06-15 Sell A6U 7553              07-07-15  7402           1510         69%

07-07-15 Sell RBQ  197.13         07-07-15 198.13         (420)         (7%)

06-26-15 Buy KEZ 590-2             07-06-15 598-2            400          81%

07-02-15 Buy NGQ 2870            07-06-15  2794            (760)       (36%)

07-06-15 Sell HOQ 182.27         07-06-15  177.32         2079        37%

06-29-15 Sell HOQ 182.80        07-01-15  188.35        (2331)       (42%)

06-26-15 Sell QMQ 59.15         07-01-15  57.35            1100         47%

July results: 12 wins & 6 loss = $10,380

YTD 51 wins & 27 losses: Profit using single contracts= $49,223 = +492%

 

06-18-15 Buy S6U 10867          06-19-15 10847         (250)       ( 4%)

06-18-15 Buy A6U 7777            06-19-15 7711           (666)      (30%)

06-22-15 Buy NQU 4544.00     06-25-15 4512.00      (640)       (16%)

06-18-15 Buy GCQ 1191.9        06-18-15 1204.9       1300          32%

06-15-15 Buy CCU 3168            06-16-15 3225            570           52%

06-15-15 Sell CTN 63.02           06-16-15  63.31          (145)       (10%)

06-11-15 Sell SBN 11.82           06-15-15 11.51            347          39%

06-09-15 Buy RBN 208.42        06-10-15 213.41        2096          33%

06-09-15 Sell ZBU 148-18        06-10-15 147-17        1132          30%

05-26-15 Sell J6M 8199             06-05-15 7950          3112        109%

06-05-15 Sell PLN 1088.7          06-05-15 1092          (165)          (8%)

05-29-15 Buy ZFM 119-21.75   06-01-15  119-15.50  (49)           (5%)

06-01-15 Sell ZMN 301.3          06-01-15 297.3           400           19%

June results: 7 wins & 3 losses = $7042

YTD 39 wins & 21 losses =$38,843 = +388%

 

05-29-15 Buy ZNM 128-05   05-29-15 128-05            0              0

05-22-15 Sell ZSN 934-6       05-29-15 934-6               0               0

05-21-15 Sell QMN 59.1       05-26-15 58.025         537            23%

05-14-15 Buy YMM 18189   05-26-15 18185          (20)             0%

05-19-15 Sell ZSN 948-6       05-22-15  932              837           38%

05-20-15 Sell J6M 8279        05-26-15 8201             975           34%

05-20-15 Buy ESM 2120       05-26-15 2114            (300)          (6%)

05-12-15 Sell ZMN 307.4      05-13-15 302.7            470           22%

05-11-15 Buy CCN 2968        05-11-15   3010           420          38%

05-01-15 Sell KCN 134.30   50% 05-08-15 134.05   109            2%

05-04-15 Sell KCN 131.95   50% 05-08-15 134.30 (1022)      (23%)

05-05-15 Buy PAM 788.10  50% 05-08-15 801

& 50% 05-11-15  783.90                                               435           10%

04-13-15 Sell ZFM 120-00     05-05-15 119-21         344           35%

04-29-15 Buy S6M 10580      05-05-15 10805        2812           34%

04-29-15 Buy QMM 5885      05-05-15 6030            725           27%

May results: 10 wins & 2 loss  P/L= $6,052  

YTD results= 32 wins & 15 losses: P/L=$31,801 = 318%

 

04-29-15 Sell ZNM 128-18     04-30-15 127-27       718             43%

04-23-15 Buy ESM 2110         04-30-15 2090.50    (950)          (19%)

04-24-15 Sell ZCN 374-6        04-27-15 366-4          412             37%

04-16-15 Buy N6M 7639        04-23-15  7594         (450)          (19%)

04-15-15 Sell RBM 188.60     04-20-15 190.15        650             25%

04-13-15 Buy HOM 180.60    04-15-15 189.00     3528             70%

04-09-15 Sell ZMN 314.5       04-20-15 317.5         (300)          (14%)

04-09-15 Sell NGM 2632       04-16-15 2632               0                  0

03-30-15 Sell NGK 2619        04-02-15 2718           (990)            (23%)

04-02-15 Buy ZWK 540-6      04-07-15   526           (738)            (52%)

04-02-15 Buy KEK 579-4       04-07-15 564-4          (250)            (18%)

03-31-15 Sell ZOK 265-2       04-01-15 262               162              13%

April results: 5 wins & 6 losses P/L=$ 1792

YTD results=22 wins & 13 losses: P/L = $25,459 = +255%

 

03-17-15 Sell ZCK 373-4     03-20-15 377-6              (213)           (19%)

03-13-15 Sell D6H 7800     03-18-15 7921             (1210)            (66%)

03-10-15 Sell J6H 8218       03-12-15 8272               (675)            (21%)

02-12-15 Buy NQH 4342.5 03-10-15 4389.5              940              24%

02-13-15 Buy ESH 2089      03-06-15  2089                     0               0

02-26-15 Buy DXH 95.24    03-05-15  96.60             1360              82%

02-26-15 Sell E6H 112.74   03-04-15  111.28           1825             54%

02-26-15 Buy HOJ 19423    03-04-15 18823           (2520)           (50%)

March results: 3 wins & 4 losses: P/L= $(493);

YTD=17W&7L: YTD P/L=$23,667=237%

 

02-25-15  Buy RBJ 18825    02-27-15 19528             2952             52%

02-25-15 Buy A6H 7860      02-26-15  7830              (300)           (12%)

02-24-15 Buy HGK 264.10  02-26-15  270.60           1625             43%

02-17-15 Sell LBK 303.75    02-24-15 292.9              1193             68%

02-18-15 Sell OJK 133         02-23-15  129                   600             45%

02-17-15 Sell KCK 161.15    02-19-15 154.20           2606             59%

01-16-15 Sell ZSH 990-6      02-03-15 966-6             1200             44%

February results:6 wins & 1 losses:14W/3L:P/L=$9,876:YTD=$24,160=+242%

 

01-28-15 Sell QMH 4479      01-29-15  4369             550               20%

01-26-15 Sell S6H 11353      01-29-15 10891          5775               69%

01-22-15 Sell B6H 15026      01-26-15 15053          (169)               (9%)

01-13-15 Sell ZMH 336.9      01-20-15      322.2      1470               67%

01-15-15 Sell NQH 4080.5    01-16-15    4101.5      (420)            (11%)

01-12-15 Sell HOG 16714    01-13-15      16316      1671              44%

01-12-15 Sell QMG 4682     01-13-15         4545        685              37%

12-15-14  Sell HEG 83.25      01-06-15      78.17      2032            154%

01-02-15 Sell D6H 8544        01-05-15       8472        720               57%

12-30-14 Sell CLG 53.97        01-05-15       50.03     1970            105%

January results: 8 wins & 2 loss: P/L=$14,284= +143% gain on $10k account

Final results for 2014 trading single contracts per signal=$49,937 which = +250% on a $20,000 account & 500% on a $10,000 account starting value

 

 

Disclaimer and Notice:  Nothing herein, including any attachments, should be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer, or a recommendation, to buy any interest in any investment or other product. This may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication that are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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“I passionately provide stock and commodity futures traders and investors with technical and fundamental analysis, commentary on specific stocks, indices, futures trades and portfolio allocation to avoid risk, preserve capital and profit from mispriced valuations both short term & long term.”
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