KDelta Sell Signals Triggered By Hawkish Fed Comments

K DELTA 2016: Commodity futures trading system

Updated 08-28-16

While never clear, The Federal Reserve Chair on Friday was “interpreted”  to say the odds of a Fed Funds Rate hike in September &/or before year end had increased. The take away is that any key data points – especially wage inflation – that hint of a stronger economy and jobs market will greatly enhance the odds of a rate hike sooner rather than later. A kick-off into a new tightening interest rate (credit) tightening cycle will increase the headwinds for investment returns. Stocks, bonds, gold and most commodities sold off to incorporate this higher risk potential. The Wage report this Friday could be important in forecasting the Fed’s decision at their next FOMC September 20/21.

The confidence of economists and voting members of the Central Bank continues to escalate in expecting a stronger US economy and higher inflation that requires more aggressive interest rate hikes. While we also expect modest economic acceleration that becomes more manifest by the spring of 2017, concern of being behind the curve is overblown and likely a case of subterfuge. The reality that we perceive is that the Fed is more concerned about losing the power of its few monetary weapons before we enter the next economic downturn and needs higher rates so it has the psychological power to impact the markets with lower rates when needed.

For now the commodity and financial markets will struggle to regain upward momentum.

KDelta profit YTD=$31,858=318%

YTD 41 wins & 30 losses = 58% winning trades

(using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance, no compounding)

We note that 2 of our trades Friday – for the first time – did not reach all readers in time, but are being reported for purposes of trading model evaluation.

Open positions

 Entry                                            Exit                             Stop (Loss)/Profit Exit

08-26-16 Sell ZMZ 319.9             313.6                                318.9

08-26-16 Sell ZNU 131-19           130-30.5                          131-19

08-26-16 Sell KEZ 423-6              410-0                               423-2

 

Pending Signals: entries using Buy or Sell Stops only (GTC or good until canceled):

Entry Price                               Target Exit Price       Initial Trailing Stop

Sell ZBU 169-30                            167-27                             170-24

Buy J6U 10059                              10130                               9969  Cancel

Buy SBV 2124                                 2251                               2151

Sell CTZ 6687                                   6537                              6757

Legend: Currencies: Australian $=A6 or 6A, British Pound=B6 or 6B, Canadian $=C6 or 6C, New Zealand $=N6 or 6N, Euro=E6 or 6E, Yen= J6 or 6J, Swiss Franc=S6 or 6S, Mexican Peso = M6, US Dollar=DX.  Ags: Corn= ZC, Soybeans=ZS, Soybean Meal=ZM, Soybean Oil=ZL, Oats=ZO, Wheat=ZW, KC Wheat=KE. Metals: Copper=HG, Gold=GC, mini-Gold= YG, Silver=SI, Platinum=PL, Palladium=PA. Stock Indexes: SP 500=ES, Dow/DJIA=YM, Nasdaq=NQ, Mini-Russell 2000=TF, Nikkei=NKE. Softs: Cocoa=CC or CO, Coffee=KC, Sugar=SB, Cotton=CT, Orange Juice=OJ, Lumber=LB.  Bonds: 30 Year T-Bonds=ZB, 10 Year Note=ZN, 5 Year Note=ZF. Energies: RB=Unleaded Gasoline; HO=Heating Oil; CL= Crude Oil; QM=mini-Crude Oil; NG=Natural Gas     {final or 3rd– letter in symbol refers to contract month: Jan’=F; Feb’=G; Mar’=H; Apr’=J; May=K; Jun’=M; Jul’=N; Aug’=Q; Sep’=U; Oct’=V; Nov’=X; Dec’=Z}. All contracts are considered to be the most current year.

Assume a $10,000 opening account & one contract per trade/signal

Below: $P/(L)/contract=profit and loss of single contract trade per signal

P/L % margin= profit & loss per trade based upon margin/investment required per contract

Profit/Loss based on $10k opening account for 2016 YTD

KDelta 2016 Closed Trades/Performance                                    

.                                                                                 $ P/(L)                   P/L

Date      Signal     Entry          Exit date/price   Contract             %margin 

08-26-16 Sell J6U 9894           08-26-16   9819      956                       21%

08-23-16 Buy N6U 7329          08-26-16   7277     (520)                   (20%)

08-19-16 Sell SIZ 1936             08-22-16   1865      3550                    61%

08-19-16 Buy ZWZ 446-0        08-22-16   435-0     (550)                   (42%)

08-15-16 Buy M6U 5500         08-17-16   5453      (235)                   (14%)

08-16-16 Buy J6U 9950           08-16-16   10045     1187                   26%

08-15-16 Buy KEZ 443-6          08-15-16   438-0     (287)                  (19%)

08-0416 Sell HGU 21775         08-10-16   21820    (113)                   (5%)

08-08-16 Buy A6U 7662          08-10-16   7746        840                     42%

08-04-16 Buy CTZ 7501           08-05-16   7791        1450                   75%

07-22-16 Sell CCU 2895           08-01-16   2892        30                       2%

August results: 6 wins & 5 loss:   $6308   YTD = $31,858

07-25-16 Sell ZLZ 3013             07-29-16 (3062)      (294)                  (36%)

07-19-16 Buy DXU 9687          07-27-16   9706         190                    8%

07-22-16 Sell C6U 7586           07-27-16  (7626)      (400)                 (25%)

07-22-16 Sell KCU 144.80       07-22-16   140.65      1556                  50%

07-20-16 Sell QMU 4517.5     07-20-16   4605         (438)                 (23%)

07-07-16 Sell QMQ 4580        07-12-16   4635         (275)                 (15%)

07-11-16 Buy CTZ 6665          07-12-16    6930          1325                  104%

07-08-16 Buy N6U 7233         07-11-16   7193          (400)                 (16%)

06-29-16 Buy KCU 14430        07-06-16  14195        (881)                 (28%)

July results 3 wins & 6 losses: P/(L)= $383:  YTD = $25,550

 

06-28-16 Buy PAU 571.5       06-30-16 594.5             2300                  50%

06-24-16 Buy YMU 17990     06-24-16  17800          (955)                 (27%)

06-16-16 Buy KCU 13980      06-23-16  13980           0                        0

06-09-16 Buy ZNU 131-08    06-20-16  131-15          219                   16%

06-02-16 Buy OJN 156.00     06-09-16  163.45          1117                 58%

06-03-16 Buy ZBU 165-28     06-14-16  169-11         3469                 86%

06-02-16 Sell M6M 5360      06-07-16  5386            (130)                 (8%)

06-02-16 Buy ZWN 485-0     06-06-16 506-4             1075                 70%

June results: 5 Win & 1 Loss: P/(L) = 7095   YTD = $25,167

 

05-20-16 Buy SBN 1701         05-25-16    1656         (495)                 (34%)

05-24-16 Sell N6M 6700         05-25-16  6735          (350)                 (14%)

05-19-16 Sell ESM 2030.25    05-20-16 2046.00      (788)                (17%)

05-18-16 Sell NGN 2169          05-19-16 2109            660                  36%

05-19-16 Sell N6M 6703          05-19-16 6754           (510)               ( 20%)

05-19-16 Sell ZLN 3200            05-19-16  3109           546                  66%

05-09-16 Sell RBM 14654        05-10-16 14654          0                       0

04-29-16 Sell DXM 9361          05-02-16 9251            1000                45%

04-29-16 Buy M6M 5810         05-02-16 5745           (325)               (17%)

May results: 2 Win & 5 Losses: P/(L)= (262): YTD= $18,072

 

04-19-16 Buy N6M 6942         04-21-16 6952           100                  4%

04-20-16 Buy PLN 1010.4        04-21-16 1038.8      1420                 61%

04-08-16 Buy CTK 5948            04-08-16 6042          470                  37%

04-06-16 Sell DXM 9229           04-07-16  9265        (360)               (16%)

04-04-16 Buy NGK 2033           04-05-16 1925         (1080)             (55%)

03-17-16 Buy ZLK 3278             04-05-16 3398          720                  82%

04-01-16 Buy CTK 5890            04-05-16 5857          (165)               (13%)

April results: 4 Wins & 3 Losses: P/(L)= 1105:   YTD Net $18,334

 

03-29-16 Buy ZCK 372-2            03-30-16   369-2      (150)              (15%)

03-29-16 Buy S6M 10406          03-30-16 10406        0                     0

03-03-16 Buy YGJ 1264.0          03-07-16 1264.0        0                     0

02-25-16 Buy C6H 7332             03-01-16 7426           960               56%

March results: 1 Win & 1 Loss: P/L= $810    YTD=$17,229

 

02-26-16 Buy HGK 21410          02-29-16    21000     (1025)         (33%)

02-26-16 Buy N6H 6741            02-26-16     6711       (300)           (12%)

02-16-16 Sell B6H 14351           02-18-16    14340         69                3%

02-08-16 Sell ZMH 263.7           02-11-16 263.7               0                0%

02-10-16 Sell QMH 2755           02-11-16 2625            650              34%

02-10-16 Buy ZBH 167-09         02-11-16  168-24     1,469             33%

02-08-16 Buy ZNH 130-24         02-09-16 131-14        687              46%

02-08-16 Buy ZBH 164-08         02-08-16 165-08      1000              25%

02-05-16 Sell NKH 16630          02-08-16  16625          25               0.5%

02-04-16 Sell KEH 464-4            02-05-16  452-2         612              37%

02-03-16 Buy PAH 509.15         02-05-16 505.9         (425)             (9%)

01-29-16 Buy ZNH 129-09         02-04-16 130-04        844             57%

02-03-16 Sell E6H 11001           02-03-16 11135        1675            43%

02-03-16 Buy N6H 6540            02-03-16 6640          1000            39%

01-29-16 Buy ZBH 161-19         02-02-16  162-25      1187           27%

01-29-16 Buy ZFH 120-15.50   02-02-16 120-26.50   343            35%

01-26-16 Sell CTH 6114            02-01-16  6190          (380)          (31%)

February results: 12 wins & 4 losses: P/(L)=$7,431: YTD=$16,419

 

01-29-16 Sell S6H 9822             01-29-16 9772             625              13%

01-28-16 Sell ZMH 268.0         01-29-16 269.6           (160)             (8%)

01-22-16 Sell S6H 9875              01-28-16  9919          (550)            (11%)

01-27-16 Sell SBH 1392             01-28-16 1343             549               49%

01-26-16 Buy SIH 1443              01-28-16 1435            (400)              (7%)

01-26-16 Buy GCJ 1113.8          01-27-16 1127.2        1340               32%

01-11-16 Sell KCH 11525           01-22-16   11685        (600)            (18%)

01-15-16 Buy ZBH 159-05         01-22-16 159-08             93                2%

01-21-16 Buy DXH 9976             01-21-16    9939         (470)           (16%)

01-11-16 Sell SBH 1422              01-13-16    1434         (135)            (12%)

01-08-16 Sell OJH 138.90           01-12-16 131.50        1260              76%

01-05-16 Sell ZLH 2966              01-11-16 2925              246               23%

01-05-16 Sell PAH 540               01-06-16 518               2200              48%

01-04-16 Sell YMH 16990         01-08-16 16348           3210              75%

01-04-16 Buy GCG 1088.4        01-07-16 1106.2          1780              43%

January results: 9 wins & 6 losses: P/L=+$8,988/per contract:  YTD=$8,988

 

KDelta final profit for 2015 = $74,322 with no compounding using single contracts

Final results for 2014 trading single contracts per signal=$49,937

 

 

 

Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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