US had a public debt of just $75 Million in 1791 and for more than a century afterwards the total public debt averaged just 2.5% of US economic production (GDP). Today’s Government Debt is estimated to be $22 Trillion at roughly 107% of the size of our annual GDP. Historically,…
Moribund Manufacturing data and slower growth guidance by Apple have exacerbated growing fears of recession, sending stocks plunging 3% on the January 3rd. However, exceptionally strong job growth and dovish support from Fed Chair Powell the next day sent stock soaring 4%. Making sense of the frequent news driven volatility is challenging,…
Concerns of an escalating US – China Trade War causing earnings downgrade contagion in 2019 has been a major factor in lower stocks prices. The benchmark SP 500 and Dow stock indices have just finished their 3rd test of the 10% correction support levels since the October 3rd record highs and one…
Our October report reviewed the limitations of the Phillips Curve in forecasting inflation as it relates to unemployment. Essentially economists interpretation of Phillips posit that lower unemployment equates to higher inflation. This view was created in the 1970’s post Gold/Currency Standard during the inflationary Baby Boom employment surge. Should the overall CPI rise above…
In recent quarters we have exposed the hyperbole of doom and gloom evidence, while expecting a first quarter 2018 double digit stock market correction. We have shown that the stock market margin debt ratio is normal, credit card and mortgage default rates are calm, credit spreads, junk bonds, yield curves…
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