Do Investors Care Who Wins the Election?

Polls are basically saying that Trump is seen as the change-agent for our economy and immigration compared to Biden. But let’s be real, giving all the credit or blame to just one person for how things turn out economically ignores the enormous power of central banks monetary policy, economic cycles and exogenous events like Covid and Ukraine. What we do know for sure is that both Trump and Biden are all about the Benjamins, probably maxing out those credit cards over the next four years. They’re also planning to play tough with China, just in their own unique ways. Trump wants to play the tax-cutting hero, while Biden is all about taxing the rich—classic moves from the Democrat-Republican playbook.

Now, when it comes to the money talk, Wall Street is all about that green growth and those fat company profits. As for the voters, they’re mostly sweating over inflation, the economy, and  10 million illegal immigrants flooding through. Trump seems to have the upper hand on these fronts, especially in those nail-biting battleground states where the big electoral showdown will happen.

People on both sides of the fence are yearning for some hope and change, but they’re also side-eyeing Biden for his infermity, memory lapses and confusion. While the President might need a pop quiz on why prices have gone bonkers on his watch, regular folks are feeling the pinch. The cost of filling up our bellies and gas tanks has spiked due to all that stimulus based inflation between 2021 and 2023. Real wages might be looking up lately, but those eye-watering price jumps are already etched into people’s wallets. Can Trump swoop in to save the day on inflation? Not likely. He’s planning to crank up those China tariffs, which could just turn the heat up even more, keeping interst rates higher for even longer. 

As we pick between these two controversial characters, it’s clear that their victories could spark some fiery protests. Yet, in the grand scheme of things, how much the President does might not shake things up all that much. Another term with Biden would speed up EV and renewable power mandates and adoption. The oil and gas sector should benefit under Trump as he rolls back Biden restrictions on production and shipments while refilling the strategic petroleum reserves. Additionally, the merger and acquistion arena will beenfit from the bigger is better mentality of the GOP. The real hair-raiser from a 2nd term under Biden could be the old Trump tax hikes waving bye-bye in 2025, which could put a damper on investments just when the stimulus cash flow is drying up and the regular Joes are feeling the squeeze. Pehrpas a 2nd term under Trump will bring on a speculative bubble and more difficulties in international trade, but voters care most about their pocketbook and the border according to the polls. Whether the crystal ball sees brighter days ahead with one of them in power remains to be seen, but the surveys suggest that investors and shoppers might be getting all excited at the thought of a Trump return.

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