Demographic Reality Hits China debt bubble, Oil junk credit crunch, commodity & emerging market depression, Russian brinkmanship and terrorism are the top themes for 2016. Only an exogenous event spiking Oil prices and 2nd quarter seasonality are likely to temporarily extinguish these negative themes continuing in 2016. Like the obesity epidemic warping our waste-lines, the primary anchor dragging…
Stock valuations change primarily upon future expectations. The US Stock market has traded sideways all year waiting for clarity on future trends with the US Central Bank (Fed) assumed to be the weather vain. Earnings and GDP growth have slowed, the US Dollar peaked in March, Oil prices have fallen to 6 year lows and…
Economic comparisons of economic data and stock values in most first world countries appear rational. Expectations of marginal economic growth rates and earnings in general correlate well with stock prices longer term. China is one of the exceptions that conjures assumptions of major manipulation. Chinese leaders have been gradually moving…
Bull Market Dragged Lower in Stock Market With the major stock averages falling 10% at their lows we advised increasing exposure to 90% invested. Markets are priced on earnings expectations and long term cycles still point higher. We highlighted a short term bottom last week with an options chart at…
China is walking a tightrope – Shan gao huangdi yuan Managing expectations and its stock market since 2011, China continues trying to bring their “shadow banking” market to heel without creating a panic and economic stall speed. Clearly Bernanke/Yellen with our Federal Reserve Bank have been more successful. China’s Shadow banking…
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