Wage data in last week’s jobs report was weak along with this week’s slowing in ISM/PMI Services and Manufacturing reports. Almost 80% surveyed don’t expect a September rate hike. With softer data also coming out of Europe it would defy logic and the guidelines of the Fed if they were to in fact raise rates prior to their December meeting. Yet, hawkish comments from ECB President Draghi and a persistent onslaught of District Fed Presidents clamoring for higher interest rates has sent investors to the exits. Bonds prices are selling off sharply and yields are rising to almost 3 month highs today. DoubleLine Capital Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Gundlach call for higher rates may have been the primary trigger for today’s move.
Fortunately, for readers paying attention, we had posted a standing Sell Stop order in Bonds filled on the 8th and exited today on the 9th at what is the low tick thus far. This should have been easy to catch the entry and exit. We actually expect a bit more selling pressure below this to the 166-07 to 166-11 area
Our OJ trade is a thin market as always, but is also working quickly in our favor and the trailing stop has been tightened for a profit guarantee.
KDelta profit YTD=$34,800=348%:
YTD = 45 wins & 30 losses = 60% winning trades
(using single contracts on $10,000 hypothetical initial balance, no compounding)
Open positions
Entry Exit Stop (Loss)/Profit Exit
09-08-16 Buy OJX 19455 20365 19525
Pending Signals: entries using Buy or Sell Stops only (GTC or good until canceled):
Entry Price Target Exit Price Initial Trailing Stop
Buy SBV 2124 2251 2151
Legend: Currencies: Australian $=A6 or 6A, British Pound=B6 or 6B, Canadian $=C6 or 6C, New Zealand $=N6 or 6N, Euro=E6 or 6E, Yen= J6 or 6J, Swiss Franc=S6 or 6S, Mexican Peso = M6, US Dollar=DX. Ags: Corn= ZC, Soybeans=ZS, Soybean Meal=ZM, Soybean Oil=ZL, Oats=ZO, Wheat=ZW, KC Wheat=KE. Metals: Copper=HG, Gold=GC, mini-Gold= YG, Silver=SI, Platinum=PL, Palladium=PA. Stock Indexes: SP 500=ES, Dow/DJIA=YM, Nasdaq=NQ, Mini-Russell 2000=TF, Nikkei=NKE. Softs: Cocoa=CC or CO, Coffee=KC, Sugar=SB, Cotton=CT, Orange Juice=OJ, Lumber=LB. Bonds: 30 Year T-Bonds=ZB, 10 Year Note=ZN, 5 Year Note=ZF. Energies: RB=Unleaded Gasoline; HO=Heating Oil; CL= Crude Oil; QM=mini-Crude Oil; NG=Natural Gas {final or 3rd– letter in symbol refers to contract month: Jan’=F; Feb’=G; Mar’=H; Apr’=J; May=K; Jun’=M; Jul’=N; Aug’=Q; Sep’=U; Oct’=V; Nov’=X; Dec’=Z}. All contracts are considered to be the most current year.
Assume a $10,000 opening account & one contract per trade/signal
Below: $P/(L)/contract=profit and loss of single contract trade per signal
P/L % margin= profit & loss per trade based upon margin/investment required per contract
Profit/Loss based on $10k opening account for 2016 YTD
KDelta 2016 Closed Trades/Performance
. $ P/(L) P/L
Date Signal Entry Exit date/price Contract %margin
09-08-16 Sell ZBZ 168-24 09-09-16 167-17 1219 29%
September results: 1 Win & 0 Losses = +1219: YTD = $34,800
08-29-16 Sell CTZ 6687 08-31-16 6606 405 23%
08-26-16 Sell ZMZ 319.9 08-30-16 313.6 630 25%
08-26-16 Sell ZNU 131-19 08-29-16 131-19 0 0
08-26-16 Sell KEZ 423-6 08-29-16 410-0 688 52%
08-26-16 Sell J6U 9894 08-26-16 9819 956 21%
08-23-16 Buy N6U 7329 08-26-16 7277 (520) (20%)
08-19-16 Sell SIZ 1936 08-22-16 1865 3550 61%
08-19-16 Buy ZWZ 446-0 08-22-16 435-0 (550) (42%)
08-15-16 Buy M6U 5500 08-17-16 5453 (235) (14%)
08-16-16 Buy J6U 9950 08-16-16 10045 1187 26%
08-15-16 Buy KEZ 443-6 08-15-16 438-0 (287) (19%)
08-0416 Sell HGU 21775 08-10-16 21820 (113) (5%)
08-08-16 Buy A6U 7662 08-10-16 7746 840 42%
08-04-16 Buy CTZ 7501 08-05-16 7791 1450 75%
07-22-16 Sell CCU 2895 08-01-16 2892 30 2%
August results: 8 wins & 5 loss: $8031 YTD = $33,581
07-25-16 Sell ZLZ 3013 07-29-16 (3062) (294) (36%)
07-19-16 Buy DXU 9687 07-27-16 9706 190 8%
07-22-16 Sell C6U 7586 07-27-16 (7626) (400) (25%)
07-22-16 Sell KCU 144.80 07-22-16 140.65 1556 50%
07-20-16 Sell QMU 4517.5 07-20-16 4605 (438) (23%)
07-07-16 Sell QMQ 4580 07-12-16 4635 (275) (15%)
07-11-16 Buy CTZ 6665 07-12-16 6930 1325 104%
07-08-16 Buy N6U 7233 07-11-16 7193 (400) (16%)
06-29-16 Buy KCU 14430 07-06-16 14195 (881) (28%)
July results 3 wins & 6 losses: P/(L)= $383: YTD = $25,550
06-28-16 Buy PAU 571.5 06-30-16 594.5 2300 50%
06-24-16 Buy YMU 17990 06-24-16 17800 (955) (27%)
06-16-16 Buy KCU 13980 06-23-16 13980 0 0
06-09-16 Buy ZNU 131-08 06-20-16 131-15 219 16%
06-02-16 Buy OJN 156.00 06-09-16 163.45 1117 58%
06-03-16 Buy ZBU 165-28 06-14-16 169-11 3469 86%
06-02-16 Sell M6M 5360 06-07-16 5386 (130) (8%)
06-02-16 Buy ZWN 485-0 06-06-16 506-4 1075 70%
June results: 5 Win & 1 Loss: P/(L) = 7095 YTD = $25,167
05-20-16 Buy SBN 1701 05-25-16 1656 (495) (34%)
05-24-16 Sell N6M 6700 05-25-16 6735 (350) (14%)
05-19-16 Sell ESM 2030.25 05-20-16 2046.00 (788) (17%)
05-18-16 Sell NGN 2169 05-19-16 2109 660 36%
05-19-16 Sell N6M 6703 05-19-16 6754 (510) ( 20%)
05-19-16 Sell ZLN 3200 05-19-16 3109 546 66%
05-09-16 Sell RBM 14654 05-10-16 14654 0 0
04-29-16 Sell DXM 9361 05-02-16 9251 1000 45%
04-29-16 Buy M6M 5810 05-02-16 5745 (325) (17%)
May results: 2 Win & 5 Losses: P/(L)= (262): YTD= $18,072
04-19-16 Buy N6M 6942 04-21-16 6952 100 4%
04-20-16 Buy PLN 1010.4 04-21-16 1038.8 1420 61%
04-08-16 Buy CTK 5948 04-08-16 6042 470 37%
04-06-16 Sell DXM 9229 04-07-16 9265 (360) (16%)
04-04-16 Buy NGK 2033 04-05-16 1925 (1080) (55%)
03-17-16 Buy ZLK 3278 04-05-16 3398 720 82%
04-01-16 Buy CTK 5890 04-05-16 5857 (165) (13%)
April results: 4 Wins & 3 Losses: P/(L)= 1105: YTD Net $18,334
03-29-16 Buy ZCK 372-2 03-30-16 369-2 (150) (15%)
03-29-16 Buy S6M 10406 03-30-16 10406 0 0
03-03-16 Buy YGJ 1264.0 03-07-16 1264.0 0 0
02-25-16 Buy C6H 7332 03-01-16 7426 960 56%
March results: 1 Win & 1 Loss: P/L= $810 YTD=$17,229
02-26-16 Buy HGK 21410 02-29-16 21000 (1025) (33%)
02-26-16 Buy N6H 6741 02-26-16 6711 (300) (12%)
02-16-16 Sell B6H 14351 02-18-16 14340 69 3%
02-08-16 Sell ZMH 263.7 02-11-16 263.7 0 0%
02-10-16 Sell QMH 2755 02-11-16 2625 650 34%
02-10-16 Buy ZBH 167-09 02-11-16 168-24 1,469 33%
02-08-16 Buy ZNH 130-24 02-09-16 131-14 687 46%
02-08-16 Buy ZBH 164-08 02-08-16 165-08 1000 25%
02-05-16 Sell NKH 16630 02-08-16 16625 25 0.5%
02-04-16 Sell KEH 464-4 02-05-16 452-2 612 37%
02-03-16 Buy PAH 509.15 02-05-16 505.9 (425) (9%)
01-29-16 Buy ZNH 129-09 02-04-16 130-04 844 57%
02-03-16 Sell E6H 11001 02-03-16 11135 1675 43%
02-03-16 Buy N6H 6540 02-03-16 6640 1000 39%
01-29-16 Buy ZBH 161-19 02-02-16 162-25 1187 27%
01-29-16 Buy ZFH 120-15.50 02-02-16 120-26.50 343 35%
01-26-16 Sell CTH 6114 02-01-16 6190 (380) (31%)
February results: 12 wins & 4 losses: P/(L)=$7,431: YTD=$16,419
01-29-16 Sell S6H 9822 01-29-16 9772 625 13%
01-28-16 Sell ZMH 268.0 01-29-16 269.6 (160) (8%)
01-22-16 Sell S6H 9875 01-28-16 9919 (550) (11%)
01-27-16 Sell SBH 1392 01-28-16 1343 549 49%
01-26-16 Buy SIH 1443 01-28-16 1435 (400) (7%)
01-26-16 Buy GCJ 1113.8 01-27-16 1127.2 1340 32%
01-11-16 Sell KCH 11525 01-22-16 11685 (600) (18%)
01-15-16 Buy ZBH 159-05 01-22-16 159-08 93 2%
01-21-16 Buy DXH 9976 01-21-16 9939 (470) (16%)
01-11-16 Sell SBH 1422 01-13-16 1434 (135) (12%)
01-08-16 Sell OJH 138.90 01-12-16 131.50 1260 76%
01-05-16 Sell ZLH 2966 01-11-16 2925 246 23%
01-05-16 Sell PAH 540 01-06-16 518 2200 48%
01-04-16 Sell YMH 16990 01-08-16 16348 3210 75%
01-04-16 Buy GCG 1088.4 01-07-16 1106.2 1780 43%
January results: 9 wins & 6 losses: P/L=+$8,988/per contract: YTD=$8,988
KDelta final profit for 2015 = $74,322 with no compounding using single contracts
Final results for 2014 trading single contracts per signal=$49,937
Disclaimer and Notice: This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss. It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you. You must perform your own due diligence. Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk. You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
