Personal consumption is 70% of the US economy. While much of this is Government controlled (Medicare), untethered to actual consumer choices, it’s a large enough number that many focus upon consumer health and sentiment for clues to economic trends. After reaching a euphoric 18 year high a few months ago, confidence…
The Dow has rallied over 3,000 points since the Christmas bottom (basis futures) and most indices are up 14 of the past 17 trading days. Financials have had their 2nd most rapid ascent in 20 years over a 15 day period. What’s more impressive is the psychology of the market…
President Trump campaigned in 2016 on making the US Dollar weak again to reduce the endless wave of record trade deficits with China. Clearly he delivered on that pledge throughout 2017 as the Dollar Index fell 12% and devalued almost 11% against the Chinese Renminbi (Yuan). While Trump delivered on…
Moribund Manufacturing data and slower growth guidance by Apple have exacerbated growing fears of recession, sending stocks plunging 3% on the January 3rd. However, exceptionally strong job growth and dovish support from Fed Chair Powell the next day sent stock soaring 4%. Making sense of the frequent news driven volatility is challenging,…
Many years ago the “Three Steps and a Stumble” rule was popularized, referring to a pattern of three hikes in the Fed Discount Rate as a precursor to major stock and bond market downtrends. While not as a relevant, we adopted our own adage decades ago of 3 tests and…
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