OJ Crop May Be Worse Than Feared

September 18, 2017 KDelta Futures Trader No Comments

09-14-17                               Our sense is that the OJ crop is much worse than prices indicate. Our guess is that consensus is between 10 & 20% crop damage. Cotton, coffee, cocoa all continue to look positive for the several month perspective. In stocks, one last pop into next week is possible, but option sentiment hints that buying power is weak without strong news events to stimulate.

09-13-17                            As we discussed in early August, the overly negative expectations for a deep seasonal correction into September might prevent any correction of significance. Current overbought option sentiment and oversold AAII Investor sentiment neutralize the technical emotions, while a relief rally from Hurricane Irma’s less than feared destruction outcome is supportive for stocks. Major indices are flirting with new record highs while transports as well as small & mid cap indices continue their negative divergence. These minor divergences however are canceled out by the widespread rally to new highs in all the major indices throughout Europe and emerging markets. 

09-05-17                        Medium to long term outlook is still favorable with no signs of economic froth, just short term overvaluations in equities that arrived in August as forecast.

08-23-17                      The minor correction this week into our 2 week old forecasted inflection point due on the 21st near 2414 Sept’ S&P was extremely precise with the low arriving on the 21st at 2415.  

08-10-17                        Stocks sold off sharply … 2400-2414 basis Sept’ S&P is the area of support to watch on August 21st.

08-08-17                       Stocks surged toward the upper extreme of our long forecasted time and price window for an August top before reversing sharply.  At this pace it’s hard to see more than a 3 to 5% pullback before the market becomes oversold basis sentiment. 

07-19-17                      The earnings season was the expected trigger with S&P 500 targets (basis September futures) of 2474 and 2501 by early August.                    

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 (KDelta Futures Trader is a proprietary short term breakout model created in the 1980’s that generates about 7 trades a month. Readers should periodically check this site for updates as not all updates generate email notifications.

P/(L) per $10,000 uses multiplier so all trades are of equal margin per $10,000 investment)

Open Positions KDelta Futures Trader

DateSignalContractEntryExit (Limit)Trailing stop
09-15-17BuyOct Sugar144415001405

Pending Signals KDelta Futures Trader

Entry StopContractEntryExit limitTrailing
Stop
BuyDec Nasdaq NQ6026.006062.005975.00

Closed Positions KDelta Futures Trader

Date Signal ContractEntry PriceExit DateExit PriceContract P/(L)P/(L) $10,000
margin/Contract
2017YTD=37403,967
09-18-17 BuyDec Cocoa201209-18-171968(440)(2579)
09-14-17 BuyDec Cocoa200909-14-171969(400)(2508)
08-23-17 SellDec BeanMeal297.308-23-17297.120101
08-11-17 SellOct mini-Oil48.5008-12-1749.10(300)(2273)
08-09-17 SellSep Nikkei1987008-09-171965011002564
08-08-17 BuySep mini-SP2480.7508-08-172469.75(550)(1190)
08-02-17 SellNov Beans983-608-08-17971-06372760
08-02-17 BuyDec Cotton69.7308-08-1771.006352886
08-02-17 BuySep 5 Yr Note118-1008-04-17118-04(188)(2435)
07-19-17 SellSep OJ1263507-21-1712830(293)(1662)
07-14-17 SellSep OJ1267007-18-1713010(510)(2898)
07-07-17 BuyOct Sugar140707-10-17140700
06-29-17 BuySep NZ$733407-03-177275(590)(4126)
06-27-17 BuySep NZ$730606-29-177286(200)(1399)
06-16-17 BuyDec Wheat495-006-22-17499-02001515
06-20-17 BuySep TBonds156-0506-21-17156-04(31)(80)
06-16-17 SellSep Coffee1275006-20-171238013874671
06-13-17 BuySep Cocoa209906-16-172032(660)(4138)
06-13-17 SellSep Nat Gas297106-15-172990(190)(909)
06-13-17 SellDec Cotton721506-14-1770975902332
06-14-17 SellSep Coffee1276506-14-1712910(544)(1832)
06-05-17 BuyDec Corn395-406-07-17403-44004848
06-05-17 BuyJun Yen908206-06-1791589502878
05-24-17 SellJun Peso536705-30-17536700
05-09-17 BuyJul Bean Meal323.605-09-17319.6(400)(2020)
05-04-17 BuyJun Euro1097905-09-1710937(500)(1466)
05-02-17 BuyJul Bean Oil325605-05-173239(112)(1074)
05-02-17 BuyJul Beans975-005-02-17967-2(388)(1680)
04-26-17 SellJun NZ$687205-01-176890(180)(1169)
04-26-17 SellJun Aussie$746404-27-177485(210)(1273)
04-24-17 SellJul Sugar161904-26-1715596725454
04-18-17 SellJul Copper2574504-19-172511015874655
04-18-17 BuyJul Coffee1451504-19-1714315(750)(2525)
04-11-17 BuyJun Yen911404-17-17922513873822
04-04-17 BuyMay Silver183404-04-171820(700)(1107)
04-03-17 BuyJun 10 Yr Note124-29.504-03-17125-052341467
03-28-17 Sell May Cocoa201903-30-1719724702946
03-22-17 Sell May Soybeans991-603-24-17980-25752489
03-21-17 Sell May SoyMeal325.703-23-17321.04702373
03-01-17 Sell Mar Pound123.5203-07-17122.059192481
03-01-17BuyMar Dollar101.7603-03-17101.7600
02-27-17BuyApr Platinum1032.202-28-171034.090430
02-27-17SellMay OJ158.402-28-17161.95(533)(2508)
02-23-17BuyApr Gold1246.602-27-171263.317703352
02-23-17BuyMar Yen88.8402-27-1788.8400
02-15-17Buy Mar Aussie76.9002-23-1776.70(200)(1212)
02-13-17Buy Mar miniRussell1394.502-15-171389.5(250)(689)
02-08-17BuyMar Corn271-002-15-17373-01001010
02-14-17BuyMar Aussie$769002-14-177624(640)(3879)
02-06-17BuyMar 5 Yr Note118-08.2502-10-17117-31(289)(3090)
02-03-17SellMar Cocoa207102-08-1719947704827
02-07-17SellMar Crude Oil515802-08-1751553094
02-01-17BuyMar Cotton753302-023-1776365153121
02-02-17BuyMar Crude Oil543302-02-175340(730)(2289)
01-27-17SellMar Cocoa210101-31-172134(330)(2069)
01-20-17BuyMar Corn369-001-30-17360-0(450)(4545)
01-30-17BuyMar Cotton750101-30-177464(370)(2242)
01-04-17BuyMar Cotton727601-04-1774006203757
2016Year to Date =$36,540=365%$121,468
12-13-16SellMar Sugar188012-14-1618305602800
12-02-16SellMar Cotton703512-02-167131(480)(2400)
December(480)YTD
11-17-16BuyMar Cotton724311-23-167131(560)(2800)
11-15-16SellMar Sugar210711-17-1620189964984
11-11-16SellJan Beans982-611-15-16992-6(500)(1500)
11-04-16SellDec KC Wheat409-211-08-16 413-6(225)(2250)
10-28-16SellMar Sugar223511-01-16 213810865430
November797YTD5889
10-21-16SellMar Sugar225110-24-16 2305(605)(3025)
10-17-16BuyDec Soy Oil3484 10-19-16 35051261638
10-12-16 BuyDec Wheat412-010-12-16 405-2(338)(2363)
10-07-16 Sell Dec Canadian $753210-07-16 7566(340)(2040)
October($5,790)YTD$117,204
09-23-16 Sell Dec BeanMeal303.809-27-16 299.14701880
09-27-16 BuyNov OJ2068009-28-16211256672668
09-27-16 Sell Dec Canadian $754909-27-16 7595(460)(2760)
09-16-16 Buy Oct Sugar2124 09-22-16 2231 1198 7188
09-21-16 Buy Nov Natural Gas3149 09-22-16 3090 (590)(2360)
09-20-16Buy Nov OJ 20000 09-20-16 20420 630 2520
09-08-16BuyNov OJ19455 09-12-16 19525 105420
09-08-16 SellDec 30 Yr T-Bonds168-24 09-09-16 167-17 12192438
September$11,994YTD$122,994
08-29-16Sell Dec Cotton6687 08-31-16 6606 4052025
08-26-16 SellDec Soy Meal319.9 08-30-16 313.6 6302520
08-26-16 Sell Dec Coffee423-6 08-29-16 410-0 6882064
08-26-16 Sell Sep Japanese Yen 9894 08-26-16 9819 9561912
08-23-16 Buy Sep New Zealand $7329 08-26-16 7277 (520)(1560)
08-19-16 Sell Dec Silver1936 08-22-16 1865 35503550
08-19-16 BuyDec Wheat446-0 08-22-16 435-0 (550)(3850)
08-15-16 BuySep Mexican Peso 5500 08-17-16 5453 (235)(1175)
08-16-16 Buy Sep Japanese Yen9950 08-16-16 10045 11872374
08-15-16 BuyDec KC Wheat443-6 08-15-16 438-0 (287)(2009)
08-0416 SellSep Copper21775 08-10-16 21820 (113)(339)
08-08-16 Buy Sep Aussie $7662 08-10-16 7746 8404200
08-04-16Buy Dec Cotton7501 08-05-16 7791 14507250
07-22-16 SellSep Cocoa 2895 08-01-16 2892 30 150
August $16,912 YTD$111,000
07-25-16 Sell Dec Soy Oil3013 07-29-16(3062) (294)(3528)
07-19-16 Buy Sep Dollar9687 07-27-16 9706 190950
07-22-16 Sell Sep Canadian $7586 07-27-16 7626 (400)(2400)
07-22-16 SellSep Coffee144.80 07-22-16 140.6515564668
07-20-16 Sell Sep WTI Crude Oil4517.5 07-20-16 4605 (875)(2625)
07-07-16 Sell Aug WTI Crude Oil4580 07-12-16 4635 (550)(1650)
07-11-16 Buy Dec Cotton6665 07-12-16 6930 13256625
07-08-16 Buy Sep N'Zealand$7233 07-11-16 7193 (400)(1200)
06-29-16 Buy Sep Coffee14430 07-06-16 14195 (881)(2643)
July!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD$94,188
06-28-16 Buy Sep Palladium 571.5 06-30-16 594.5 23004600
06-24-16 Buy Sep Dow mini17990 06-24-16 17800 (955)(1910)
06-09-16 Buy Sep 10 Year Note131-08 06-20-16 131-15 2191314
06-02-16 Buy Jul OJ156.00 06-09-16 163.45 11174468
06-03-16 Buy Sep 30 Year Bond165-28 06-14-16 169-11 34696938
06-02-16 Sell Sep Peso5360 06-07-16 5386 (130)(650)
06-02-16 Buy Jul Wheat485-0 06-06-16 506-4 10759675
June!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD = $92,463
05-20-16 Buy Jul Sugar1701 05-25-16 1656 (495)(2475)
05-24-16 Sell Jun NewZealand$6700 05-25-16 6735 (350)(1400)
05-19-16 Sell Jun mini-SP2030.25 05-20-16 2046.00 (788)(788)
05-18-16 Sell Jul Nat Gas2169 05-19-16 2109 660 1980
05-19-16 Sell Jun NewZealand$6703 05-19-16 6754 (510)(1530)
05-19-16 Sell Jul Bean Oil3200 05-19-16 3109 5466552
04-29-16 Sell Jun US $9361 05-02-16 9251 10005000
04-29-16 Buy Jun Peso5810 05-02-16 5745 (325)(1625)
May!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD = $68,028
04-19-16 Buy Jun NewZealand$ 6942 04-21-16 6952 100300
04-20-16 Buy Jul Platinum 1010.4 04-21-16 1038.8 14204260
04-08-16 Buy May Cotton 5948 04-08-16 6042 4702350
04-06-16 Sell Jun US $ 9229 04-07-16 9265 (360)(1800)
04-04-16 BuyMay Nat Gas2033 04-05-16 1925 (1080)(3240)
03-17-16 Buy May Bean Oil3278 04-05-163398 7208640
04-01-16 Buy May Cotton5890 04-05-16 5857 (165)(825)
April$9,685YTD$62,314
03-29-16 Buy May Corn 372-2 03-30-16 369-2 (150) (1500)
02-25-16 Buy Mar Canadian $7332 03-01-16 7426 9604800
March!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD =$52,629
02-26-16 Buy May Copper21410 02-29-16 21000 (1025)(3075)
02-26-16 Buy Mar NewZealand$6741 02-26-16 6711 (300)(900)
02-16-16 Sell Mar Pound14351 02-18-16 14340 69 138
02-10-16 Sell Mar WTI Oil2755 02-11-16 2625 13003900
02-10-16BuyMar 30 Yr Bons167-09 02-11-16 168-24 1,4692938
02-08-16 BuyMar 10 Yr Note130-24 02-09-16 131-14 6874122
02-08-16 Buy Mar 30 Yr Bond164-08 02-08-16 165-08 10002000
02-05-16 Sell Mar Nikkei16630 02-08-16 16625 2550
02-04-16 Sell Mar KC Wheat464-4 02-05-16 452-2 6126120
02-03-16 Buy Mar Palladium 509.15 02-05-16 505.9 (425)(850)
01-29-16 Buy Mar 10 Yr Note 129-09 02-04-16 130-04 8445064
02-03-16 Sell Mar Euro FX11001 02-03-16 11135 16753350
02-03-16 BuyMar NewZealand$ 6540 02-03-16 6640 10003000
01-29-16 Buy Mar 30 Yr Bond161-19 02-02-16 162-25 11872374
01-29-16 Buy Mar 5 Yr Note120-15.50 02-02-16 120-26.50 3433430
01-26-16 Sell Mar Cotton 6114 02-01-16 6190 (380) (1900)
February!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD = $49,329
01-29-16 Sell Mar Swiss Franc 9822 01-29-16 9772 6251230
01-28-16 Sell Mar Bean Meal 268.0 01-29-16 269.6 (160) (800)
01-22-16 Sell Mar Swiss Franc9875 01-28-16 9919 (550) (1100)
01-27-16 Sell Mar Sugar 1392 01-28-16 1343 5492745
01-26-16 Buy Mar Silver1443 01-28-16 1435 (400)(400)
01-26-16 Buy Apr Gold1113.8 01-27-16 1127.2 13401340
01-11-16 Sell Mar Coffee11525 01-22-16 11685 (600)(1200)
01-15-16 Buy Mar 30 Yr Bond159-05 01-22-16 159-08 93 186
01-21-16 Buy Mar US $9976 01-21-16 9939 (470)(2350)
01-11-16 Sell Mar Sugar1422 01-13-16 1434 (135)(675)
01-08-16 Sell Mar OJ138.90 01-12-16 131.50 12605040
01-05-16 Sell Mar Bean Oil2966 01-11-16 2925 2462952
01-05-16 SellMar Palladium540 01-06-16 518 22004400
01-04-16 Sell Mar mini-Dow16990 01-08-16 16348 32106420
01-04-16 Buy Feb Gold1088.4 01-07-16 1106.2 17801780
January!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD = $19,568

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