Stocks Stall: Aussie & Corn Break Support

11-16-17                  Corn hits its high confidence exit, yet lower targets between 330 to 335 remain. Hedge funds are nearing an extreme where a major bottom should begin to form on the next short term oversold condition.  The Aussie short is hanging on and should edge lower, but profit stops are in place. The Yen continues to work higher as Hedge funds cover shorts.

11-14-17                  Aussie broke below support today as expected as did Corn. In the Stock Market we have been looking for November 9th as the time to look for a modest correction (2 to 3%). So far the 9th is the high of the Bull market and prices have reversed lower about 1% and poised for another slide once the November 9th intraday lows are taken out.

11-09-17                 The Aussie remains lined up for more downside, with potential weakness in the Pound as well. Corn is breaking down from a Bearish triangle pattern, but this may be the last decline of the year as hedge funds are nearing very oversold conditions. Sugar and especially Cocoa continue to test upside breakouts for short and long term rally potential as hedge funds cover shorts. Stocks rallied as expected into the heart of quarterly earnings release season November 2nd to the 9th, at which point the risk of a pause – 2 to 3% correction – will be elevated for a few weeks. S&P 2600 – 2625 is the potential upside left in 2017 before a more serious topping pattern is likely to begin in the 1st quarter of 2018.

10-25-17               Stock market volatility is edging up as we enter the frenzied climax of earnings releases these next 3 weeks ending November 9th. As we move closer to the the 9th or just beyond the odds of more volatility and normal downside corrections should increase. The majority of companies so far continue to exceed expectations. Longer term synchronous global growth bodes well for 2018 earnings.       Our Sell side signals in the Canadian $ and Swiss Franc entered on the 20th & exited today (25th) with strong gains as advised. In our Futures Investor model update we have been indicating that the Peso, Canadian, Aussie and New Zealand $ should all continue lower – & they have.  While short term rallies or sideways extensions are now more plausible, the excessive long positions by Money Managers indicates that the bias remains lower into year end. 

10-19-17             Stocks are mostly about earnings expectations and the ability to continue exceeding optimistic forecasts. The long awaited IBM turn around seems to have arrived and along with Adobe and others has ignited yet another leg higher. Pretty soon maybe we will hear positive numbers from old has been darlings like GE and Cisco. A new momentum top is likely as earnings climax in early November, but this is a market requiring significant disappointment to confirm a buy-able correction.

10-02-17          Aside from strong US data (exceptional PMI>60) we have the strong threat of an escalating civil war in Spain weakening the Euro in favor of the Dollar. This also serves to depress the Ags and energy (Oil/Nat Gas).  Our soft commodities are flashing Sells in Cotton and Buys in Cocoa short term.  While the techs/Nasdaq continue to lag, all other stock indices continue to move to new highs. With the overbought sentiment, such a breakout on some indices is a modest surprise short term, but the foreign indices new records today keep the short term Bull case alive. A test of 2530 basis December S&P and over Dow 22600 become next targets to watch with a possible inflection turning point due mid week.

09-27-17         The Dollar rallied again (Euro fell) as new US economic data boosted the odds for rate hikes by the Fed: higher interest rates = stronger Dollar short term. Our Euro Sell quickly moved to its first target for an exit ($1,475/contract). The stronger economic news boosted earnings expectations and stock prices flirted with new record highs on the S&P 500 & Dow indices. The Russell 2000 small cap index roared this week to new record highs after some negative divergence in recent months.            

(*While trading position updates will be frequent, readers should check for updates without waiting for email notifications)

 (KDelta Futures Trader is a proprietary short term breakout model created in the 1980’s that generates about 7 trades a month. Readers should periodically check this site for updates as not all updates generate email notifications.

P/(L) per $10,000 uses multiplier so all trades are of equal margin per $10,000 investment)

Open Positions KDelta Futures Trader

DateSignalContractEntryExit (Limit)Trailing stop
11-13-17SellDec Aussie762175587608

Pending Signals KDelta Futures Trader

Entry StopContractEntryExit limitTrailing
Stop
SellDec Pound130471286313107
SellDec 2 Yr Note116-25116-13.75116-29
BuyMar Cotton696870636914

Closed Positions KDelta Futures Trader

Date Signal ContractEntry PriceExit DateExit PriceContract P/(L)P/(L) $10,000
margin/Contract
2017YTD=651418,951
11-15-17 SellDec SP mini256311-15-172565(100)(202)
11-09-17 SellDec Corn342-411-14-17337-42503030
10-30-17 BuyMar Sugar146211-02-171442(224)(1818)
10-20-17 SellDec Swiss1018910-25-171010111003703
10-20-17 SellDec Canadian$793910-25-17783310608760
10-03-17 BuyDec Cocoa205710-09-17205920125
10-06-17 SellDec Yen886310-06-178886(250)(909)
10-03-17 SellDec NZ$715610-04-17715600
10-02-17 SellDec Cotton678610-03-176810(120)(545)
09-25-17 SellDec Euro1189409-27-171177614756385
09-15-17 BuyMar Sugar144409-19-171405(437)(3545)
09-18-17 BuyDec Cocoa201209-18-171968(440)(2579)
09-14-17 BuyDec Cocoa200909-14-171969(400)(2508)
08-23-17 SellDec BeanMeal297.308-23-17297.120101
08-11-17 SellOct mini-Oil48.5008-12-1749.10(300)(2273)
08-09-17 SellSep Nikkei1987008-09-171965011002564
08-08-17 BuySep mini-SP2480.7508-08-172469.75(550)(1190)
08-02-17 SellNov Beans983-608-08-17971-06372760
08-02-17 BuyDec Cotton69.7308-08-1771.006352886
08-02-17 BuySep 5 Yr Note118-1008-04-17118-04(188)(2435)
07-19-17 SellSep OJ1263507-21-1712830(293)(1662)
07-14-17 SellSep OJ1267007-18-1713010(510)(2898)
07-07-17 BuyOct Sugar140707-10-17140700
06-29-17 BuySep NZ$733407-03-177275(590)(4126)
06-27-17 BuySep NZ$730606-29-177286(200)(1399)
06-16-17 BuyDec Wheat495-006-22-17499-02001515
06-20-17 BuySep TBonds156-0506-21-17156-04(31)(80)
06-16-17 SellSep Coffee1275006-20-171238013874671
06-13-17 BuySep Cocoa209906-16-172032(660)(4138)
06-13-17 SellSep Nat Gas297106-15-172990(190)(909)
06-13-17 SellDec Cotton721506-14-1770975902332
06-14-17 SellSep Coffee1276506-14-1712910(544)(1832)
06-05-17 BuyDec Corn395-406-07-17403-44004848
06-05-17 BuyJun Yen908206-06-1791589502878
05-24-17 SellJun Peso536705-30-17536700
05-09-17 BuyJul Bean Meal323.605-09-17319.6(400)(2020)
05-04-17 BuyJun Euro1097905-09-1710937(500)(1466)
05-02-17 BuyJul Bean Oil325605-05-173239(112)(1074)
05-02-17 BuyJul Beans975-005-02-17967-2(388)(1680)
04-26-17 SellJun NZ$687205-01-176890(180)(1169)
04-26-17 SellJun Aussie$746404-27-177485(210)(1273)
04-24-17 SellJul Sugar161904-26-1715596725454
04-18-17 SellJul Copper2574504-19-172511015874655
04-18-17 BuyJul Coffee1451504-19-1714315(750)(2525)
04-11-17 BuyJun Yen911404-17-17922513873822
04-04-17 BuyMay Silver183404-04-171820(700)(1107)
04-03-17 BuyJun 10 Yr Note124-29.504-03-17125-052341467
03-28-17 Sell May Cocoa201903-30-1719724702946
03-22-17 Sell May Soybeans991-603-24-17980-25752489
03-21-17 Sell May SoyMeal325.703-23-17321.04702373
03-01-17 Sell Mar Pound123.5203-07-17122.059192481
03-01-17BuyMar Dollar101.7603-03-17101.7600
02-27-17BuyApr Platinum1032.202-28-171034.090430
02-27-17SellMay OJ158.402-28-17161.95(533)(2508)
02-23-17BuyApr Gold1246.602-27-171263.317703352
02-23-17BuyMar Yen88.8402-27-1788.8400
02-15-17Buy Mar Aussie76.9002-23-1776.70(200)(1212)
02-13-17Buy Mar miniRussell1394.502-15-171389.5(250)(689)
02-08-17BuyMar Corn271-002-15-17373-01001010
02-14-17BuyMar Aussie$769002-14-177624(640)(3879)
02-06-17BuyMar 5 Yr Note118-08.2502-10-17117-31(289)(3090)
02-03-17SellMar Cocoa207102-08-1719947704827
02-07-17SellMar Crude Oil515802-08-1751553094
02-01-17BuyMar Cotton753302-023-1776365153121
02-02-17BuyMar Crude Oil543302-02-175340(730)(2289)
01-27-17SellMar Cocoa210101-31-172134(330)(2069)
01-20-17BuyMar Corn369-001-30-17360-0(450)(4545)
01-30-17BuyMar Cotton750101-30-177464(370)(2242)
01-04-17BuyMar Cotton727601-04-1774006203757
2016Year to Date =$36,540=365%$121,468
12-13-16SellMar Sugar188012-14-1618305602800
12-02-16SellMar Cotton703512-02-167131(480)(2400)
December(480)YTD
11-17-16BuyMar Cotton724311-23-167131(560)(2800)
11-15-16SellMar Sugar210711-17-1620189964984
11-11-16SellJan Beans982-611-15-16992-6(500)(1500)
11-04-16SellDec KC Wheat409-211-08-16 413-6(225)(2250)
10-28-16SellMar Sugar223511-01-16 213810865430
November797YTD5889
10-21-16SellMar Sugar225110-24-16 2305(605)(3025)
10-17-16BuyDec Soy Oil3484 10-19-16 35051261638
10-12-16 BuyDec Wheat412-010-12-16 405-2(338)(2363)
10-07-16 Sell Dec Canadian $753210-07-16 7566(340)(2040)
October($5,790)YTD$117,204
09-23-16 Sell Dec BeanMeal303.809-27-16 299.14701880
09-27-16 BuyNov OJ2068009-28-16211256672668
09-27-16 Sell Dec Canadian $754909-27-16 7595(460)(2760)
09-16-16 Buy Oct Sugar2124 09-22-16 2231 1198 7188
09-21-16 Buy Nov Natural Gas3149 09-22-16 3090 (590)(2360)
09-20-16Buy Nov OJ 20000 09-20-16 20420 630 2520
09-08-16BuyNov OJ19455 09-12-16 19525 105420
09-08-16 SellDec 30 Yr T-Bonds168-24 09-09-16 167-17 12192438
September$11,994YTD$122,994
08-29-16Sell Dec Cotton6687 08-31-16 6606 4052025
08-26-16 SellDec Soy Meal319.9 08-30-16 313.6 6302520
08-26-16 Sell Dec Coffee423-6 08-29-16 410-0 6882064
08-26-16 Sell Sep Japanese Yen 9894 08-26-16 9819 9561912
08-23-16 Buy Sep New Zealand $7329 08-26-16 7277 (520)(1560)
08-19-16 Sell Dec Silver1936 08-22-16 1865 35503550
08-19-16 BuyDec Wheat446-0 08-22-16 435-0 (550)(3850)
08-15-16 BuySep Mexican Peso 5500 08-17-16 5453 (235)(1175)
08-16-16 Buy Sep Japanese Yen9950 08-16-16 10045 11872374
08-15-16 BuyDec KC Wheat443-6 08-15-16 438-0 (287)(2009)
08-0416 SellSep Copper21775 08-10-16 21820 (113)(339)
08-08-16 Buy Sep Aussie $7662 08-10-16 7746 8404200
08-04-16Buy Dec Cotton7501 08-05-16 7791 14507250
07-22-16 SellSep Cocoa 2895 08-01-16 2892 30 150
August $16,912 YTD$111,000
07-25-16 Sell Dec Soy Oil3013 07-29-16(3062) (294)(3528)
07-19-16 Buy Sep Dollar9687 07-27-16 9706 190950
07-22-16 Sell Sep Canadian $7586 07-27-16 7626 (400)(2400)
07-22-16 SellSep Coffee144.80 07-22-16 140.6515564668
07-20-16 Sell Sep WTI Crude Oil4517.5 07-20-16 4605 (875)(2625)
07-07-16 Sell Aug WTI Crude Oil4580 07-12-16 4635 (550)(1650)
07-11-16 Buy Dec Cotton6665 07-12-16 6930 13256625
07-08-16 Buy Sep N'Zealand$7233 07-11-16 7193 (400)(1200)
06-29-16 Buy Sep Coffee14430 07-06-16 14195 (881)(2643)
July!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD$94,188
06-28-16 Buy Sep Palladium 571.5 06-30-16 594.5 23004600
06-24-16 Buy Sep Dow mini17990 06-24-16 17800 (955)(1910)
06-09-16 Buy Sep 10 Year Note131-08 06-20-16 131-15 2191314
06-02-16 Buy Jul OJ156.00 06-09-16 163.45 11174468
06-03-16 Buy Sep 30 Year Bond165-28 06-14-16 169-11 34696938
06-02-16 Sell Sep Peso5360 06-07-16 5386 (130)(650)
06-02-16 Buy Jul Wheat485-0 06-06-16 506-4 10759675
June!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD = $92,463
05-20-16 Buy Jul Sugar1701 05-25-16 1656 (495)(2475)
05-24-16 Sell Jun NewZealand$6700 05-25-16 6735 (350)(1400)
05-19-16 Sell Jun mini-SP2030.25 05-20-16 2046.00 (788)(788)
05-18-16 Sell Jul Nat Gas2169 05-19-16 2109 660 1980
05-19-16 Sell Jun NewZealand$6703 05-19-16 6754 (510)(1530)
05-19-16 Sell Jul Bean Oil3200 05-19-16 3109 5466552
04-29-16 Sell Jun US $9361 05-02-16 9251 10005000
04-29-16 Buy Jun Peso5810 05-02-16 5745 (325)(1625)
May!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD = $68,028
04-19-16 Buy Jun NewZealand$ 6942 04-21-16 6952 100300
04-20-16 Buy Jul Platinum 1010.4 04-21-16 1038.8 14204260
04-08-16 Buy May Cotton 5948 04-08-16 6042 4702350
04-06-16 Sell Jun US $ 9229 04-07-16 9265 (360)(1800)
04-04-16 BuyMay Nat Gas2033 04-05-16 1925 (1080)(3240)
03-17-16 Buy May Bean Oil3278 04-05-163398 7208640
04-01-16 Buy May Cotton5890 04-05-16 5857 (165)(825)
April$9,685YTD$62,314
03-29-16 Buy May Corn 372-2 03-30-16 369-2 (150) (1500)
02-25-16 Buy Mar Canadian $7332 03-01-16 7426 9604800
March!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD =$52,629
02-26-16 Buy May Copper21410 02-29-16 21000 (1025)(3075)
02-26-16 Buy Mar NewZealand$6741 02-26-16 6711 (300)(900)
02-16-16 Sell Mar Pound14351 02-18-16 14340 69 138
02-10-16 Sell Mar WTI Oil2755 02-11-16 2625 13003900
02-10-16BuyMar 30 Yr Bons167-09 02-11-16 168-24 1,4692938
02-08-16 BuyMar 10 Yr Note130-24 02-09-16 131-14 6874122
02-08-16 Buy Mar 30 Yr Bond164-08 02-08-16 165-08 10002000
02-05-16 Sell Mar Nikkei16630 02-08-16 16625 2550
02-04-16 Sell Mar KC Wheat464-4 02-05-16 452-2 6126120
02-03-16 Buy Mar Palladium 509.15 02-05-16 505.9 (425)(850)
01-29-16 Buy Mar 10 Yr Note 129-09 02-04-16 130-04 8445064
02-03-16 Sell Mar Euro FX11001 02-03-16 11135 16753350
02-03-16 BuyMar NewZealand$ 6540 02-03-16 6640 10003000
01-29-16 Buy Mar 30 Yr Bond161-19 02-02-16 162-25 11872374
01-29-16 Buy Mar 5 Yr Note120-15.50 02-02-16 120-26.50 3433430
01-26-16 Sell Mar Cotton 6114 02-01-16 6190 (380) (1900)
February!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD = $49,329
01-29-16 Sell Mar Swiss Franc 9822 01-29-16 9772 6251230
01-28-16 Sell Mar Bean Meal 268.0 01-29-16 269.6 (160) (800)
01-22-16 Sell Mar Swiss Franc9875 01-28-16 9919 (550) (1100)
01-27-16 Sell Mar Sugar 1392 01-28-16 1343 5492745
01-26-16 Buy Mar Silver1443 01-28-16 1435 (400)(400)
01-26-16 Buy Apr Gold1113.8 01-27-16 1127.2 13401340
01-11-16 Sell Mar Coffee11525 01-22-16 11685 (600)(1200)
01-15-16 Buy Mar 30 Yr Bond159-05 01-22-16 159-08 93 186
01-21-16 Buy Mar US $9976 01-21-16 9939 (470)(2350)
01-11-16 Sell Mar Sugar1422 01-13-16 1434 (135)(675)
01-08-16 Sell Mar OJ138.90 01-12-16 131.50 12605040
01-05-16 Sell Mar Bean Oil2966 01-11-16 2925 2462952
01-05-16 SellMar Palladium540 01-06-16 518 22004400
01-04-16 Sell Mar mini-Dow16990 01-08-16 16348 32106420
01-04-16 Buy Feb Gold1088.4 01-07-16 1106.2 17801780
January!ERROR! illegal character '$'YTD = $19,568

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