11-14-17 While the Aussie has broken lower as forecast, the Pound is still coiling for a breakout – lower is our expectation. The Yen has moved to the Buy side this week as Hedge Funds were extremely oversold. Soft commodities continue up trends, but in a very choppy pattern keeping enthusiasm low. Corn and Wheat are quickly approaching new Buy zones as Hedge Fund selling is nearing extreme levels during this recent move lower in price.
10-19-17 Cocoa continues in a choppy uptrend awaiting breakout confirmation. Still like the post Irma OJ market longer term. Coffee is stuck in a large triangle formation with downside risk for a few weeks followed by even larger upside potential as hedge funds are oversold. Despite the correction in the Canadian $ the hedge funds are very overbought requiring even more downside over the next couple of months. The Mexican Peso has finally sold off sharply due to the earthquake, but further downside is likely after a modest rally phase in the 2nd half of October. The Aussie and the Pound also look overbought basis Hedge fund positioning.
10-02-17 (Soft commodities) Still long Cocoa and close to re buying the OJ, Sugar & Coffee investments. Ag markets still need more sideways to lower price action to trigger long term oversold Buy zones. Energies still appear overbought from a technical Hedge Fund perspective, but potential Bullishness geopolitically as Kurds face a growing threat of war on at least 3 sides and Iran faces an almost guaranteed October threat from Trump keeping us looking at dips for buying opportunities. NoKo remains the to scary to fathom event to contemplate.
09-14-17 Perhaps 25 to 35% of the OJ crop was wiped out by Irma. The good news for investors is that Hedge Funds were heavily short this crop and are currently buying back their hedges. Other soft commodities appear to be set up for upside breakouts as well. Aussie & Kiwi currencies are short with tight stops and the Peso is again approaching what appears to be a medium term top under 0.5600 (17.85 = inverse).
09-13-17: Kiwi & Aussie shorts remain with the need for Hedge Fund liquidation of overbought exposure. Soft commodities all appear to be bottoming or have begun new up trends.
08-22-17: Stock prices bottomed Aug’ 21st as our inflection point indicated in our latest Newsletter. Earnings are buoyant. Our New Zealand $ short is doing fine, but we took a short term profit in the short Peso. Softs: Cocoa/Coffee/Sugar/Cotton – have fallen back sharply and caused our longs to exit, yet the medium term picture looks good with oversold hedge fund positions likely to cover shorts in coming weeks. We will look for the Buy side on OJ and other Soft commodities over the next month. Wheat leads the way lower. Corn and wheat still have considerable liquidation potential over the next couple of months.