09-18-17 NZ$ was stopped out for strong profits and ready to short on any new lows. Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar, Cotton and OJ all continue to edge above major bottom formations as hedge funds remain oversold in need of short covering upon any news trigger.
09-14-17 We suspect 10% of the Cotton crop was destroyed by Harvey and perhaps 25 to 35% of the OJ crop was wiped out by Irma. The good news for investors is that Hedge Funds were heavily short these crops and are currently buying back their hedges. Other soft commodities appear to be set up for upside breakouts as well. Aussie & Kiwi currencies are short with tight stops and the Peso is again approaching what appears to be a medium term top under 0.5600 (17.85 = inverse).
09-13-17: Kiwi & Aussie shorts remain with the need for Hedge Fund liquidation of overbought exposure. Soft commodities all appear to be bottoming or have begun new up trends.
08-22-17: Stock prices bottomed Aug’ 21st as our inflection point indicated in our latest Newsletter. Earnings are buoyant. Our New Zealand $ short is doing fine, but we took a short term profit in the short Peso. Softs: Cocoa/Coffee/Sugar/Cotton – have fallen back sharply and caused our longs to exit, yet the medium term picture looks good with oversold hedge fund positions likely to cover shorts in coming weeks. We will look for the Buy side on OJ and other Soft commodities over the next month. Wheat leads the way lower. Corn and wheat still have considerable liquidation potential over the next couple of months.