Newsletter

Premature Celebration Of Philly Fed Data

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Over the past 6 months there has been a steady drumbeat of ever stronger economic data from multiple sources, domestic and foreign. This weeks report of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey attained a whole new level of impressive and conjures hope for ‘Yuge’ economic expansion. While the monthly readings can…

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Copper Strikes

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Will 2017 be the year of labor strikes in copper? When has the news for copper ever been more Bullish? Consumption expectations are rising and supply projections are falling! Is it time to Sell?  Demand for copper is growing faster with renewed global growth, forecasted Trumpian economic incentives along with…

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Too Many Bears

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According to Investors Intelligence survey of Newsletter writers, optimism is surging into the upper echelon of the most positive outlooks over the past 40+ years. With Bullish opinions testing 63% of those reviewed, we are already up against record levels typical of the start or the end of a Bull…

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Let The Moon Be Your Guide

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Let the moon be your guide is lunacy! Right? Perhaps, but once in a while we enjoy a cursory examination of the odd correlation with lunar peaks and human valuation of various commodities. Full and New Moons occur when the Sun, Moon and Earth are in alignment and exert extra…

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Bearish Sentiment Pushes Dow Above 20K

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Over the past 6 weeks we have repeatedly discussed that excessive “Bearish sentiment” in the marketplace favored a move above the psychological barrier of Dow 20,000 prior to any meaningful correction that “allowed” investors to climb on board the Trump Train.  On December 15th we said “Most investors are hoping…

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Too Many Bond Bears

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When its obvious, it’s obviously wrong! Is there any forecaster, economist or investment house that doesn’t think interest rates are going higher? Trump’s victory and hyper business cheer leading has accelerated a rush to sell bonds due to the certainty over rising economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve finally hiked…

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Trump Tweets – Peso Plunges

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Trump tweets of taxes at the southern border and the Peso plunges. Mexico has abundant petroleum, cheap labor and a preeminent location for global companies to reach the largest consumption market in the world. Yet they struggle with slow growth and massive corruption. To add insult to their injurious system, Mexico’s…

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Productivity Growth Ahead

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The past 8 years have witnessed one of the worst trends in labor productivity of the past century. Human productivity inexorably rises over time as we learn from our losses and invest with innovative management and capital investments to increase labor efficiency and profits. Productivity naturally falls as an economy moves…

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Hope and Change Gets Trumped

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Respected media icons, economists, hedge fund managers and self aggrandized pundits have long predicted an immediate stock market crash and recession upon the astronomically remote odds of a Trump Presidency. Shark Tank’s Mark Cuban and the vociferous majority were correct — for a couple hours!  However, the silent smart money…

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