Copper, China and Global Recovery

Category: China, Newsletter | No Comments

Copper and Oil are important barometers of economic direction. The weather vane for Copper’s direction isn’t as much supply, but demand. Chinese industrial activity and the commitment of traders are important demand side tells to observe. When Copper surged an impressive 10 cents a pound last week it was blamed on the…

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Stock Market Expiration Date

Category: Inflation, Newsletter, Stock Market, US Economy | No Comments

Economic expansions rarely last more than 8 to 10 years without a recession. Stock markets almost always have greater than 20% corrections associated with each recession. However, it’s naive to assume expansions and contractions have expiration dates. Looking for the global economy to engage in a classic contraction  with spiking unemployment and…

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Softer Hard Data Weighs on Stocks

Category: Newsletter, Stock Market, US Economy | No Comments

Hard data is soft! Retail sales have contracted 2 months in a row, construction spending and industrial production data are soft and other hard data inputs have pressured economic models sharply lower in their 1st quarter GDP estimates. When the economic outlook is soft, interest rates along with stocks earning forecasts decline….

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