Newsletter

Earnings Driven Stock Market

Category: Newsletter, Oil, Stock Market | No Comments

The “earnings season” is the period each quarter when the vast majority of corporate earnings are reported. The bulk of the stellar gains in the stock market this year have occurred around earnings season. Alcoa typically kicks it off around the 3rd week at the start of each calendar quarter and 6…

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Consumers Have Some Nice Assets

Category: Housing, Newsletter, Speculator | No Comments

The national debt here and around the world continues to grow inexorably toward the stratosphere, yet households have steadily improved their balance sheets.  Household debt to GDP has fallen from almost 100% to just 80% since 2008. Individual assets have risen at a rapid 10% rate that far outpaces consumer…

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Labor Shortage Equals Low Wage Growth?

Category: Newsletter, Speculator | No Comments

More jobs and less available people should portend better pay. Everyone knows that when demand is greater than supply, the cost of the supply will rise until equilibrium is reached. That’s certainly the case with housing these days as the record low inventory of homes can’t satisfy the demand. As one would expect,…

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Copper, China and Global Recovery

Category: China, Newsletter | No Comments

Copper and Oil are important barometers of economic direction. The weather vane for Copper’s direction isn’t as much supply, but demand. Chinese industrial activity and the commitment of traders are important demand side tells to observe. When Copper surged an impressive 10 cents a pound last week it was blamed on the…

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Stock Market Expiration Date

Category: Inflation, Newsletter, Stock Market, US Economy | No Comments

Economic expansions rarely last more than 8 to 10 years without a recession. Stock markets almost always have greater than 20% corrections associated with each recession. However, it’s naive to assume expansions and contractions have expiration dates. Looking for the global economy to engage in a classic contraction  with spiking unemployment and…

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