Let The Moon Be Your Guide

January 31, 2017 Newsletter No Comments

Let the moon be your guide is lunacy! Right? Perhaps, but once in a while we enjoy a cursory examination of the odd correlation with lunar peaks and human valuation of various commodities. Full and New Moons occur when the Sun, Moon and Earth are in alignment and exert extra gravitational pull. These spring tides often appear to exhibit interesting inflection points in the price of many commodities.  Rather than theorize about tea leaves and other inspired divinations how lunar cycles could influence human behavior, we can simply peruse some charts with the moon as their guide.

A full or new moon occurs every 14 to 15 days, roughly twice a month. While looking for inflection points in the stock market when a recent short term tend is about to reverse direction, there “appears” to be a reasonable match with lunar alignment. Inflection points are easier to glean when the trend is sideways, generating a saw tooth pattern of frequent trend changes. What stands out is that the most prominent highs and lows each month lined up almost precisely with a Full or New moon.

How about Corn? It certainly appears that of the 16 Lunar arrows on this chart, all but one has coincided very tightly with a sharp trend change in price (& the jury is still out on the last arrow).

Moving to another completely unrelated market we observe that even Crude Oil has a correlation with new and full moons at important price inflection points in 10 of the last 12 occurrences. 

There are many simple and complex technical tools and fundamental factors that can be utilized to clear up ones crystal ball to foretell a probable future based upon past performance. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any promise of guaranteed results is sheer lunacy! When one stares too long at the moon he is bound to step in the puddles below. Moon cycles are not a part of our typical toolkit. However, keeping an eye out for the moon can be mesmerizing.

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