Short Term Top

10-06-17

Clearly some inflection points have more impact than others, but the forecasted short term turning points seem to match up well with trend changes. Our theme of stock market surges each quarter coincident with the quarterly earnings seasons may be due for a pause this quarter. For the first time this year prices have already surged higher for 6 weeks well before earnings season. This season begins October 16th.  Perhaps stocks will maintain a trading range while touching slight new highs in October, but much of the earnings anticipation may be priced in here in the 2550’s basis December S&P and 22,800’s Dow. Earnings season peaks November 2nd and ends late in the month. We suspect prices will be corrective in November to early December.  We are quickly approaching the pattern of the parabolic rise of 1987 where financial panics become more likely even though economic and earnings fundamentals are firm.

09-13-17

While we are active basis Futures and remain with the 95% equity investment level for Long Term investors, our short term stock model is shut down awaiting lower risk entry.  Corrections of even 2 to 3% are rare thus far in this Bull market since the November 2016 election.

 

(Each KDelta Stock position listed represents 5% of a portfolio.)

KDelta Stock Portfolio: Open Trades

DateSymbolEntryExit TargetTrailing Stop

Pending Trades KDelta Stock Portfolio:

Stock Trade GTCEntryExitTrailing
Stop

KDelta Stock Model: Closed Trades

Entry DateTradeExit Date PriceProfit %% P/(L)
Portfolio
07-03-17Buy CORN 19.3307-13-1718.70(3.4%)(0.17)
05-17-17Buy NIB 22.6805-25-1717.680.44%0.02
03-16-17Buy BOX05-17-1717.685.24%0.26
03-16-17Buy CSCO 34.2005-18-1731.10(9.1%)(0.45)
03-16-17Buy PFPT 80.2805-17-1782.202.4%0.12
05-01-17Buy WEAT 7.0805-10-176.81(3.8%)(0.19)
04-20-17Buy WEAT 6.8805-10-176.77(1.6%)(0.08)
02-14-17Buy SIRI 4.705-09-174.82.13%0.1065
02-01-17Buy ALGN 97.005-02-17135.039.21.96
May1.7365YTD1.03
02-14-17Buy SNA 171.804-13-17162.2(5.6%)(0.279)
02-21-17Buy NIB 24.6504-07-1724.670.08%0.004
April(0.275)YTD(0.706%)
01-27-17Buy LITE 37.7503-22-1749.6531.5%1.575
02-28-17Buy YDKN/FNB 33.8803-17-1734.48(1.5%)(0.077)
03-21-17Buy WTFC 71.2503-22-1765.90(7.5%)(0.375)
03-17-17Buy KRE 56.3503-22-1752.3(7.2%)(0.36)
11-14-16Buy KOL 13.503-15-1713.540.3%0.015
02-14-17Buy IWM 137.903-08-17136(1.4%)(0.07)
02-13-17Buy DBC 15.903-08-1715.3(3.8%)(0.19)
02-03-17Buy SBUX 56.1303-02-1757.141.8%0.09
02-09-17Buy WEAT 7.3703-13-177.05(4.3%)(0.22)
02-08-17Buy NIB 24.9903-02-1724.00(3.96%)(0.2)
02-10-17Buy CORN 19.7803-09-1719.25(2.7%)(0.135)
02-08-17Buy CORN 19.6703-10-1718.96(3.7%)(0.19)
01-17-17Buy WEAT 7.2603-13-177.01(3.4%)(0.17)
12-01-17Buy WEAT 6.9203-14-177.011.3%0.065
March(0.24%)YTD(0.431%)
01-27-17Buy GS 236.901-31-17230.21(2.8%)(0.14)
01-27-17Buy XES 23.2501-30-1721.90(5.8%)(0.29)
01-27-17Buy SPY 229.2701-30-17226.75(1.1%)(0.055)
01-17-17Buy CORN 19.3101-30-1719.11(1.04%)(0.052)
01-12-17Buy TBF 23.3001-30-1723.872.45%0.123
01-05-17Buy TBF 23.6801-27-1723.900.9%0.046
12-18-16Buy DBB 15.4001-13-1715.943.5%0.175
January(0.193%)YTD(0.193%)
December0 Portfolio P/(L)Year 20163.1%%
11-14-16Buy SPY 216.29 11-28-16 221.162.2%0.11
November0.11 Portfolio P/(L)Year to date 3.31%
10-20-16Buy SNA 158.00 11-01-16 151.70 (4%) (0.20)
October (0.20)Portfolio P/(L)Year to date3.2%
09-09-16 Buy SNA 149.30 09-12-16 147.00 (1.5%) (0.075)
September (0.075)YTD=3.32%
08-19-16 Buy WEAT 7.94 08-23-16 7.70 (3%) (0.15)
08-04-16 Buy WEAT 7.84 08-23-16 7.69 (1.9%) (0.095)
07-11-16 Buy BAL 44.26 08-09-16 49.15 11% 0.55
06-06-16 Buy BAL 43.35 08-05-16 51.75 19.4% 0.97
08-02-16 Buy FXB 129.82 08-05-16 127.28 (1.96%) (0.098)
07-11-16 Buy AMTD 28.00 08-02-16 29.89 6.75% 0.3375
07-26-16 Buy CAT 81.20 08-01-16 82.10 1.1% 0.055
August results1.6% YTD = +3.4%
07-21-16 Buy CAT 81.01 07-22-16 79.00 (2.48) (0.124)
07-11-16 Buy WEAT 8.16 07-20-16 7.82 (4.17) (0.21)
06-06-16 Buy UNG 7.39 07-07-16 8.36 13.1 0.656
06-01-16 Buy UNG 7.0707-07-168.3618.2 0.912
July results1.2% YTD = +1.83%
June results (0.13)% YTD = +0.5965%
May results (0.355) YTD = +0.725%
April results0.12% YTD = +1.08%
March results0.36YTD=+0.96%
February results 0.605% YTD= +0.6%
January results = 0

 

 

Disclaimer and Notice:  This report may contain information on investments that are high risk and have substantial risk of principal loss.  It is for informational purposes only. Statements in this communication are not statements of fact are merely opinions or forward looking statements from a potentially biased source(s) that involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future results to differ materially from any prior or projected results. Statements in this communication may be inaccurate and/or unsuitable for you.  You must perform your own due diligence.  Your investment decisions should always be made based on your specific financial needs, suitability, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance.  Any decision is at your sole discretion and at your sole risk.  You are advised to consult with your individual investment and tax professionals before making any investment.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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